NEWSLETTER

Firm opening...

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

With Dow down 400 points and Asian markets too down the traders and punters decided to go short with the word go. Cni team said no as the market was in control of bulls. When Singapore was showing 2860 CNI flashed message saying the 2880 will be the opening and consolidation for a while. It did happen and at 1 pm Cni set Nifty target at 2970 and Nifty recovered from 2880 to 2940 to come to plus which was never seen and thought by market.   Dow will recover its lost grounds today. Market will open at 3000 plus tomorrow and may be some profit selling will come. We also send message saying that Maytas will open its lower circuit today and hit upper and it did.   Now watch there could be big action in JET, Welspun, IFCI, Tisco, Tata motors and Moser baer. We do not leave stock following so easily. When Tisco fell from 208 to 160 we did not lose hope because we knew what is happening. It came back roaring till 203. It will cross Rs 220 for sure. Similar is the call in R Com, R Capital. We know what is happening and what are the targets, who are buyers and why. This information will be now shared with the privilege members in Chakry talk.   Welspun there will be deal at 90 which will surprise the street. There will be deal in VIP too almost 1 mn shares and all be surprised to know the buyers when it comes to public domain. Orissa Sponge is still hot in your memory. In realty stocks the worst is seems to be over. Unitech is already out of woods with 75% of debt rescheduled. Now days the reverse air has started blowing. Airways have raised the prices again. Metal prices going up. Realty players too are not ready to cut prices though they are offering gr discounts. Lot of cancellations has happened. As a result though the demand is seen at 30% price cut the supply is not seen which could make prices stabilise here.   Going forward, till budget, lot of anticipation is getting built which could be dangerous for market. It could be fair that you keep on booking profits in A gr and come to zero position by 16th Feb. Nifty will try to kiss 3150 by that time.   Coming back to RIL, it has been kept below 1400 so that short sellers remain active. Above 1415 the whole world will come short covering. In fact, last 2 days, new buzz is spread by bear camp that in this budget the EOU status will not be extended to RIL. They are using this buzz to keep RIL price under check. If one smart fund is accumulating and it is just matter of time for that fund to have access to the data how much RIL is short.           On the contrary, sellers are active sellers on the same analogy that nothing will come in budget. Therefore if something comes in then for sure there could be real smart upsidetill 3400 just for short covering.       Obstinacy is the result of the will forcing itself into the place of the intellect

Axit D Shah

Hello Friends,

Stock Market Technical Views :

Nifty managed to close at 2925 levels after opening gap down due to global cues. Still Nifty is facing stiff resistance at 2950 levels & if we manage to close above this for few days then we may see good upside in markets. The major support for spot Nifty on closing basis is 2855 which used to previous resistances for markets.

Niftiee Intra day levels :
Close 2925
Supports : 2910 / 2880 / 2855
Resistances : 2955 / 2990 / 3030

IIP data will be released tomorrow & which is expected to come better & this may prove +ve trigger for the markets in short term. Also Rail Budgets & Interim Fin Budget wil be announced & expectations with the same may help markets to stable around here or even up move may come.

Sectors sensitive to Budget will see some good momemtum in short term. But there is pure speculation view about these sectors as when people wil come to know such news they may be the last members to buy out these stocks. So better play ur cards well else you may be the last person to enter when the GAME is OVER.

Gold Technical Views :
2 day if Gold sustains above $920 & In Mcx above 14400 then +ve. If closes above these levels then highly +ve. We may soon see levels of 14800 - 15200 - 15500 , The immediate support would be 14200 - 14000.

Silver Technical Views :
2day if Silver sustains & closes above 20800 then we may soon see 21200-21500 & even higher levels. Supports seen for Silver is around 20500-20600.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened weak note on weak global cues but saw smart bounces in after noon session and close on flat note .For coming session if nifty trade above 2970 it can test 3050-3100 levels on the lower side 2870 zone will act support zone .

Ilango)

Nifty has absorbed the huge sell off in US mkts, stayed above the critical 2860 mark and closed in the green.
There are some pattern similarities (Fractals..!!) in the day chart (Earlier one worked favorably) and they point to upsides ahead.
"OB" hourly got adjusted with intra day dips & the gap down. After some +ve divergences in the 5-minute chart at 2871, Nifty rallied on comfortably.
100DMA is fast coming down and likely to be at 3050 in 2-3 days.
There is also a possibility of a Inverse H&S pattern which has a targets in the area of 3050-3100.
Weekly & Daily trend remains UP.

MY CHART

Nifty :: Manage to hold above H & S breakout level…. Now today’s low 2877 works as most Important support level for further up move.. Before 2877 strong support zone in between 2918 to 2892.. Watch strong resistance for up move 2961 and above it 2990/3015.. Our strategy for 12^th Feb sell at high (near strong resistance 2990/3015 with S.L 3015) buy on deep (S.L 2877).. Resistance for up move at 2940/2961/2990/3015/ 3092.. Supports at2918/2908/2892/2877/2863/2813..

 (Niftytrends)

WE were bullish from some time now and we now entered good resistance area .Charts shows cci hooking so would suggest to hold longs with tight STOPLOSS .RETRACEMENT CAN BE TILL 2830 BELOW WHICH GAIN FREASH SELLING CAN COME .
BULLS IF HOLD 2930 ON CLOSING BASIS WILL GO TO SEE 3028-50 AREA .

SVShah)

NIFTY (2925.7)

Support : 2890 / 2855 / 2815 / 2775

Resistance : 2950 / 2975 / 3000 / 3035

SENSEX

Support : 9500 / 9385

Resistance : 9695 / 9765

NIFTY FUTURE (2924)

Support : 2885 / 2845

Resistance : 2955 / 2980 / 3015

On Thursday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2930,Sl Below 2910,Tgt 2950-2975-2990-3010,

Sustain Below 2905,Sell with Sl Above 2925,Tgt 2885-2855-2835-2775

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 2.65% with 14% decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions at lower levels.

NIFTY SPOT sustain above 2950-60 levels will attract panic short covering.

High possibility NIFTY FUT to trade on premium compare to NIFTY SPOT.

Buy SBIN (1159 ),Sloss Below 1145,Tgt 1170-80-90

Buy BANKINDIA Above 250,Tgt 255-260-265,Sl 245

Buy GNFC Above 60,Tgt 64-67-75,Sl 58

Buy HEROHONDA Above 900,Target 915-925-935,Sl 890

Buy IOC Above 455

Buy DLF Above 150,Tgt 160/165,Sl 145

Buy BRIGADE Above 36,Tgt 40/42/45+,Sl 34

Sell ITC Below 180,Tgt 177-175-170,Sl 181

Sell NTPC Below 180,Tgt 175-170-165,Sl 185

Sell TATASTEEL Below 190,Tgt 185-180-175,Sl 195

Buy SKUMAR Feb Fut@19.7/19.8,Sl 19.2,Tgt 19.95/20.25/20.5/20.8/21.2 (Lot Size : 1900)

Sell GDL Feb Fut 60/59,Sl 61.4,Tgt 58.3/57.8/57.1/56.5/55.9/54.8 (Lot Size : 2500)

(B.N.RAO -THE STOCKS DOCTOR)

The Nifty is fighting against all odds to stay afloat above 2900 level despite of the global pressures, enthused Bears are pulling down but managing to close above 2918 is a good sign to out-perform in future.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.

Manas

Dow is trading flat to positive when i am writing this, but guessing that it may close positive, it will be a very intresting trading day here in india.

in case we get a gap up, i will try to short nifty with SL around 2955 levels.

if 2905 breaks for intraday, we may see, 2885-2855 levels.

(STOCKSTAR)

INDEX GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2940 SL 2880 TARGET 2990/3042
SELL NF BELOW 2940 SL 2990 TARGET 2880/2840

STOCKS GAME-
BUY ABIRLANUVO ABOVE 440 SL 430 TARGET 450/460
BUY ADLABS ABOVE 174 SL 170 TARGET 178/182
BUY AXISBANK ABOVE ABOVE 430 SL 420 TARGET 440/450
BUY BRFL ABOVE 108 SL 105 TARGET 111/114
BUY CENTRALBK ABOVE 39 SL 38 TARGET 40/41
BUY DIVISLAB ABPVE 920 SL 900 TARGET 940/960
BUY GITANJALI ABOVE 51 SL 49 TARGET 53/55
BUY GVKPIL ABOVE 21 SL 20 TARGET 22/23
BUY HDFC ABOVE 1530 SL 1510 TARGET 1550/1570
BUY HDIL ABOVE 85 SL 82 TARGET 88/91
BUY HEROHONDA ABOVE 900 SL 885 TARGET 915/930
BUY IFCI ABOVE 22 SL 21 TARGET 23/24
BUY INDIAINFO ABOVE 48 SL 45 TARGET 51/54
BUY INDUSIND BANK ABOVE 35 SL 34 TARGET 36/37
BUY JPASSOCIATE ABOVE 76 SL 73 TARGET 79/82
BUY KFA ABOVE 37 SL 35 TARGET 39/41
BUY KSOIL ABOVE 44 SL 43 TARGET 45/46
BUY ORDHIDCHEM ABOVE 73 SL 70 TARGET 76/79
BUY PUNJLLOYD ABOVE 97 SL 94 TARGET 100/103
BUY RELCAPITAL ABOVE 425 SL 410 TARGET 440/455
BUY TVSMOTOR ABOVE 19 SL 18 TARGET 20/21
BUY UCOBANK ABOVE 28 SL 27 TARGET 29/30
BUY VOLTAS ABOVE 46 SL 44 TARGET 48/50
SELL CAIRNS BELOW 161 SL 164 TARGET 158/155
SELL CIPLA BELOW 192 SL 195 TARGET 189/186
SELL GESHIP BELOW 212 SL 216 TARGET 208/204
SELL GRASIM BELOW 1360 SL 1400 TARGET 1320/1280
SELL NAUKARI BELOW 420 SL 430 TARGET 410/400
SELL PATELENG BELOW 149 SL 152 TARGET 146/143
SELL RANBAXY BELOW 220 SL 225 TARGET 215/210
SELL SESAGOA BELOW 97 SL 100 TARGET 94/91
SELL TATACOMM BELOW 440 SL 450 TARGET 430/420
SELL ZEEL BELOW 113 SL 117 TARGET 109/105

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Supports hold up for the day with Sensex making a low of 9460 and Nifty 2877 which is what we were looking for yesterday but the pullback could not cross 9750 on upside so all in all an inconsequential day for the index. 

We did see a move out of 9450 range but have seen no follow up moves to give comforts to short term long trades making it tricky to take a positional view. This is similar to what happen after  9500 breakdown. In short after a breakout the range has just shifted to a  higher or lower level without any great direction so best thing would be to wait and take small day trades till we see follow up moves. 

Dow Jones  And Gold Technical View :

PREVIOUS POST :

Dow Jones :

The index did try to pullback from the 7800 support zone but stopped at 8300 odd itself in the attempt. On the downside 7750 remains an important level to watch as shown in the chart. If the index moves below that level with volumes then it may well make  a new low also. 

Gold :

While writing this Gold is quoting at 940 + and is suggesting a breakout beyond the zone of 930. It seems to be headed towards 952/980 in near term. Made a quick move to 945 once it crossed 930. Would be a buy on dips with a stop of 915 tgt 950-980. 

Crude :

The pattern continues with current traded contracts going towards 33-35 by end of expiry and next month quoting at 40 +. So it seems the trade is to keep shorting crude on end of expiry !!! or no buy trades on last week of expiry. Over all sluggish positional moves. 

Stocks to watchout for :

RCOM stays arnd 170s , Chamble 42 ( good if crosses above 43 )  , Lanco 125 , RPL 87 . Traders can reduce positions or keep a stop of 3-4% frm cmp. 

With IIP data , interim budget etc would prefer to be on the light side of trades as volatility may increase on announcement. 

HIGH risk trades :

Short Akruti around 1000-1030 stop of 1060 for a tgt of 950-980. 

Buy Adlabs around 168-170 stop of 165 tgt 180. 

RCOM , Chamble and IDEA look good for short term but would be a buy if Sensex manages to cross 9750. 

Cement stocks could be surprise movers . India Cements , Ambuja and Ultra Tech look good on charts.