Hi..
Nifty has crept up above its resistance this week and even though the fundamentals remain weak, there could be a temporary respite in the days to come for the index. Monday opening could well be a bit weak due to S&P's subdued performance on Friday, but overall, I think, there'll be some buying over the week.
First meaningful target/resistance is at 2990, then 3079 and then 3224. Meaningful supports are at 2901, 2880, 2846 and 2755. The attached chart shows the break of weekly lines over the monthly ones which confirms the end of bearish trade.
NIFTY ( daily, six months)Tomorrow there is a Vote on Account (VOA) by the Indian Government. Market participants will take a call based on what is presented in the VOA. I just browsed through some Nifty stock charts. My observation tells me that participants are sitting neutral, having covered their shorts earlier. HDFC, Reliance, Larsen,SBI, BHEL charts indicate that prices have moved up in the last week and are sitting pretty close to the upper resistances. So it is prudent to wait and watch for the market to digest the VOA.
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
--> Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 12.61%, NIFTY FUT up 4.08%, last week.
--> Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 40 Stock FUTS closed positive, 7 Stock FUTS closed negative and 3 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
--> OI of NIFTY 2900 CE is up 6.17% prices up 46.84%, NIFTY 3000 CE is up 11.22% prices up 46.87% last week showing not only short covering but buying too. OI of NIFTY 3100 CE is up 74.66% prices up 28.57% last week showing call writing. OI of NIFTY 2900 CE is 47.21 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
--> OI of NIFTY 2800 PE is up 11.32% prices down 63.39% and NIFTY 2900 PE is up 141.32% prices down 55.15% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 2800 PE is 69.86 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
--> Total OI of FEB series CALLs is up by 13.90 LK to 2.06 CR. FEB series PUTs is up by 40.33 LK to 2.83 CR last week. FEB series NIFTY PCR (OI) at 1.36.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (16th February - 20th February 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Market likely to decline during mid-week no matter how the interim budget is.
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, 4 planets i.e. Mercury, Mars (Exalted), Jupiter (Debiliated), and Rahu (R) are placed in Capricorn. Exalted Venus is placed in Pisces, Sun, Uranus and Neptune are posited in Aquaruius, Ketu(R) in Cancer, Retrograde Saturn in Leo, Pluto (D) in Sagittarius and Moon is in Libra. Moon will Transit through Libra, Scorpio and Sagittarius during this week. Sun has entered Aquarius on 13th Feb. Jupiter- Rahu- Mars are in very close proximity. Jupiter-Rahu were at 0 degree conjunction on 13th and Mars is following them. This YOGA can bring good decline on 13th as well as 17th/18th when mars will be very close to Jupiter - Rahu. Saturn- Uranus opposition can also cause sharp swings in coming days.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit there are very interesting and important aspects taking place this week. some of them are highly bullish while few of them can cause sharp decline. Tr Venus sextile aspect with Tr Rahu on 15th can cause sudden jump on/after 18th Feb. T Mars conjunction with T Rahu is another aspect on 16th can cause decline first and sharp upmove after 2-4 days. Similarly T Mars Conjunction with T Jupiter on 17th can cause sharp decline before conjunction and sharp rise within couple of days after the event. Tr Mercury conjunction with Tr Rahu on 22nd Feb can also make market spurt by 3%-4% much before actual conjunction. In NSE Natal Chart - Tr Sun Square aspect with Natal Pluto is bullish. Tr Jupiter Square aspect with Natal Sun on 19th in bullish for market. While T Mars Square aspect with Natal Venus is a bearish aspect. In BSE Natal Chart - T Sun trine aspect with Natal Venus is mildly bullish. Tr Venus conjunction with Natal Rahu on 21st can make market rise for 3-4 days. T Mars opposition with Natal Uranus on 22nd is also a bullish signature.
Moon's transit through Libra is a Bullish sign but Moon's entry to Scorpio can bring decline however modest reversal of trend is expected before Moon enters sagittraius. However Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
World Markets - Astrologically
CRUDE OIL / GOLD / SILVER
Crude Oil is likely to show volatility again in this week. After initial weakness in first 2 days, expect mildly bullish trend in Crude Oil till endof this week. Gold is looking volatile but on posituve side. Upward movement can be seen on 17th & 18th Feb.Early next week may see decline in Gold. Silver is also looking bullish this week again. Short Selling is not advised in both Gold andsilver this week unless there are clear signs of trend reversal.
US DOLLAR / INDIAN RUPEE ( USDINR)
Astrologically, It is likely to see 2 way movement during this week. Indian Rupee may show some strength in early part of the week but US Dollar is looking mildly bullish from 19th onward till end of the week.
US MARKETS
Astrologically, After See- Saw movement in forst 2 days, good decline can be expected on 18th Feb but there after US Markets may take upward U-Turn for restof the week. Jupiter-Rahu-Mars conjunction is likely to cause lot of volatility.
Weekly NSE INDEX (C-2948.35)
Resistance : 2980 / 3010 / 3050 / 3140
Support : 2920 / 2865 / 2825 / 2785 / 2750
Weekly BSE SENSEX (C-9634.74)
Resistance : 9800 / 9995 / 10350
Support : 9560 / 9450 / 9400 / 9165
Weekly NIFTY FUTURE (C-2946.15)
Resistance : 3010 / 3070 / 3135
Support : 2910 / 2850 / 2755
Weekly BANK FUTURE (C-4560.25)
Resistance : 4660 / 4760
Support : 4500 / 4405 / 4250
Conclusion :-
I expect NIFTY SPOT to trade very volatile next week. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 2980-90 levels, 3010-20 levels. Upside is capped near 3050-60 levels. On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support at 2875-65, 2830-40 levels. Strong support at 2750-60 levels. Last 2 session trade showing no major change in OI of CALLs and PUTs.
Traders confused about direction of NIFTY but stock specific action will remain.
I has been a rally - many are calling it a sucker's rally but I would like to refrain from saying so. It has the chance perhaps to take us to levels that are definitely higher than what we have seen in these times - the bad ones. I really had been waiting so eagerly for this rally and as the luck would have it - wherein I could not even see the markets - leave aside tracking them. A visit outstation was one, the net was down and lastly the night flying phase - crazy timings out flying at mid night and returning early morning. Before going any further – Patheja – welcome to the blog. So whether you call it a hunch or say that the charts were read right – the fact remains that after a long time of anticipating a bullish run up – we are finally in so called bullish run up. How long will it last – should be the next logical question on everyone’s mind. I have same questions in my mind as anyone else – but answers with my (MY) perspective. If it were to fall tomorrow onwards – what goes wrong? Wrong is that enough money has not been pumped in the market for some to eat and sleep tight. Infact it is now only that some have started to come back to the market – seeing it get alive. The second is that the ones who are there in the markets are perhaps too jittery – give them a shock and they all (me included perhaps) will run back into our little holes. So this is the reason I really really feel that the markets will continue to inch up – however slowly and go up to next levels. Well I might not be able to say the same for the rest of the world and that adds another angle to the entire crazy times we are living in. On Monday we have another news driven volatility – the so called interim budget or whatever name you want to give it. Asia has seen it fairly good last trading day – Nikkei was up 0.96%, Hang Sang up 2.47% and Strait Times up 1.23%. Europe was just about okay – FTSE down 0.3%, DAX up 0.13% and CAC up 1.13%. US was where so much action was – company reports, employment data, sales figures and the cherry of stimulus. And yes – the US is taking some strong steps – both financially and otherwise that will change the nation in the coming decade. 
In an article Rick Newman says – this year will remain to be bad and the recovery or the signs thereof will be visible only from next year (2010) onwards in US. He goes on to describe the signs that will be visible when the economy starts recovering. The signs listed are:-
- Improvement in unemployment rate.
- Stability in Home prices
- Rebuilt consumer confidence
- Lower volatility on the stock markets
- Economic growth turns positive.
The full article can be reached by clicking this.
Coming to our charts and our future. Candles first – Had we violated the Upper Bollinger Bands I would have been singing – the present upswing is with caution. The candle once again engulfs the bear so remains bullish. The 5 EMA had crossed over the 20 EMA and 20 EMA too should ideally attempt a crossover of 50 EMA. The volumes were not really good but the move was fairly wide based – so that part is okay.ADX is bullish and make have no doubt about it. The level I would watch out for on ADX would be 35 – the crossover should make it touch 40. I am saying touch 40 because if it crosses 40 the bullish trend would be extremely strong – and that part I am not ready to believe yet. The MACD is still in the positive divergence and that is bullish. RSI is good and above 50. RSI too is bullish. Okay now on to the problem areas – the Slow Stochastic is in the overbought zone – it can hover around here but not for more than another day or so. Second is that Jaggu Dada’s TRIN says bearish. So these are the two indications that throw caution to otherwise good sentiment.
Another good thing that may work in our favour is that the US markets are likely to be closed tomorrow – so the likely negative cues for Tuesday may be missing and the markets may do better than expected.
Let us see the pivot levels for Monday --
R3 3042
R2 3010
R1 2979
Pivot 2937
S1 2906
S2 2864
S3 2833
Projected High Range 2958 to 2995
Projected Low Range 2943 to 2906
Fib Projected High 2988
Fib Projected Low 2876
BUY NF ABOVE 2940 SL 2880 TARGET 2990/3042
SELL NF BELOW 2940 SL 2980 TARGET 2880/2840
BUY BANK NF ABOVE 4550 SL 4500 TARGET 4600/4650
SELL BANK NF BELOW 4500 SL 4550 TARGET 4450/4400
STOCKSGAME-
BUY ABIRLANUVO ABOVE 480 SL 460 TARGET 500/520
BUY ABAN ABOVE 455 SL 450 TARGET 460/470
BUY ADLABS ABOVE 180 SL 175 TARGET 185/190
BUY AXISBANK ABOVE 440 SL 435 TARGET 445/450
BUY BAJAJHIND ABOVE 55 SL 53 TARGET 57/59
BUY BALLARPUR ABOVE 16 SL 15 TARGET 17/18
BUY BICON ABOVE 108 SL 105 TARGET 111/114
BUY EDUCOMP ABOVE 2100 SL 2050 TARGET 2150/2200
BUY ESSAROIL ABOVE 75 SL 73 TARGET 78/81
BUY GITANJALI ABOVE 51 SL 49 TARGET 53/55
BUY GVKPIL ABOVE 22 SL 21 TARGET 23/24
BUY HDIL ABOVE 87 SL 85 TARGET 89/91
BUY HEROHONDA ABOVE 930 SL 925 TARGET 935/940
BUY ICICIBANK ABOVE 435 SL 425 TARGET 445/455
BUY IBN-18 ABOVE 82 SL 78 TARGET 86/90
BUY KSOILS ABOVE 44 SL 42 TARGET 46/48
BUY LT ABOVE 700 SL 680 TARGET 720/740
BUY MCDOWELL-N ABOVE 685 SL 660 TARGET 710/735
BUY MPHASIS ABOVE 156 SL 153 TARGET 159/162
BUY NAUKARI ABOVE 452 SL 447 TARGET 457/462
BUY NIITECH ABOVE 58 SL 56 TARGET 60/62
BUY NIRMA ABOVE 107 SL 104 TARGET 110/113
BUY PNB ABOVE 410 SL 400 TARGET 420/440
BUY RCOM ABOVE 180 SL 175 TARGET 185/190
BUY RELCAPITAL ABOVE 435 SL 425 TARGET 445/455
BUY RPL ABOVE 87 SL 85 TARGET 89/91
BUY RPOWER ABOVE 108 SL 106 TARGET 110/112
BUY SBIN ABOVE 1195 SL 1180 TARGET 1210/1225
BUY SIEMENS ABOVE 233 SL 228 TARGET 238/243
BUY SUNTV ABOVE 172 SL 169 TARGET 175/178
BUY SUZLON ABOVE 47 SL 45 TARGET 49/51
BUY TECHM ABOVE 249 SL 244 TARGET 253/258
BUY TV-18 ABOVE 78 SL 74 TARGET 82/86
SELL AMBUJACEM BELOW 73 SL 75 TARGET 71/69
SELL APIL BELOW 285 SL 290 TARGET 280/275
SELL CHAMBAL BELOW 42 SL 44 TARGET 40/38
SELL FINANTCH BELOW 515 SL 520 TARGET 510/505
SELL GAIL BELOW 210 SL 215 TARGET 205/200
SELL HINDPETRO BELOW 297 SL 302 TARGET 292/287
SELL INFOSYS BELOW 1250 SL 1265 TARGET 1235/1220
SELL NAGFERTI BELOW 18 SL 19 TARGET 17/16
SELL RECLLTD BELOW 83 SL 85 TARGET 81/79
After racking my brains the whole day, I finally came with the correct count - we're in the q wave now. So r, s and t are sure to follow I guess. If you think it's very funny, please try to understand that I spent a whole Sunday doing this, sacrifying my cigarettes and beer and other pleasures.16 Feb 2009
BSE Sensex: (9635):-The Support for the SENSEX is 9445 and the Resistance to the up move is at 9825.
Nifty: (2948):- NIFTY could possibly go to 3500 till the elections Hold nifty long with Stoploss of 2880 . Nifty range now is 2940-2960 till nifty close above 2920 we can see uptrend. If Nifty can cross 3100 then levels of 3480 and 3500 is what one can expect. In Nifty 2960 is strong resistance level now and if nifty consistence of level 2940 then it would mark a short-term uptrend and Nifty could even rally other 100-150 points.
Immediate Support for the NIFTY at 2900 and Resistance to the up move at 3000
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 3.02% with 16% decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions for BTST.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
NSE INDEX (C-2948.35) : Crucial Monthly levels for Nifty are 2955 and 3065 close above this level frequently can change trend ..Watch these levels
Resistance : 2980 / 3015 / 3040 / 3055 / 3080 / 3095
Support : 2935 / 2905 / 2865-55 / 2820 / 2790
BSE SENSEX (C-9634.74) : Buy on dips and exit before Thursday to prevent yourself from pre Budget volatility.
Resistance : 9710 / 9780 / 9825
Support : 9620 / 9550 / 9465-445
NIFTY FUTURE (C-2946.15) : MARKETS & SOME SPECIFIC STOCKS ON BUDGET EXPECTATIONS CAN BE VERY VOLATILE
Resistance : 2950 / 2975 / 3000
Support : 2925 / 2900
BANK FUTURE (C-4560.25)
Resistance : 4610 / 4660
Support : 4555 / 4505 / 4450
On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 2950,Sl Below 2930,Tgt 2980-3010-3025,
Sustain Below 2920,Sell with Sl Above 2940,Tgt 2905-2890-2865.
Buy ACC Above 580,Tgt 595-610-620,Sl 570
Buy HEROHONDA Above 930,Tgt 945-950-955,Sl 925
Buy RELCAPITAL Above 430,Tgt 440-450-470,Sl 420
Buy BALAJITELE Above 36,Sl 34,Tgt 40/43/45
Buy UNITECH Above 31,Sl 29,Tgt 33/35-37
Buy SBIN (1196) with Sl Below 1180,Tgt 1215/30/45
Buy Crompton Greaves Above 140,Tgt 145/50,Sl 135
Buy PFC Above 140
Buy POWERGRID Above 93
Buy AXISBANK Above 445
Sell TCS Below 510,Tgt 505-495-480,Sl 520
Sell HDFC BANK Below 940,Tgt 935-925-905,Sl 950
Sell BHARTI Below 650,Tgt 640-630-605,Sl 660
FEB FUTURES
Bharti (652.15) : Buy @ 645 as open with Sl 635 T 655/665/675
ONGC (703.8) : Buy @ 695/700,Sl 690,Tgt 705/10/20 ,If Sustains Above 710-715,Then Can Carry Forward As BTST
RIL (1391) : Buy @ 1375/80,Sl 1365,Tgt 1400/15/25
Buy SINTEX@ 120/120.5,Sl 117,Tgt 121.5/122.3/123/124.5/125.7/127/128/129 (Lot Size : 700)
Sell ABB @ 445/440,Sl 451,Tgt 436/434/429/425/421/417/412/408 (Lot Size : 250)
COMMODITY
GOLD APRIL: As long as gold holds 14300-14400 zones it will try and break 15000 for 15300-15500 zones. This week sellers will be there only a consolidated fall below 14450.Only a close below 14400 for two consecutive days will result in a weekly bearish zone.
Key prices to watch out this week: Rs.14325, Rs.14480 and Rs.14902.
MCX SILVER MARCH: Silver needs to close over 21700 for four consecutive days to target 22640 and 23650. In the next two weeks silver is bullish over 19935.
Initial support is at 20803.
MCX COPPER FEBRUARY: Double bottom has been formed at 150 which suggest that copper can rise to 185-190 zone in the next two weeks as long as it holds 150 zone. If copper does not break 185 by 10 of March then it will back to 150 and 138 and below. Initial support is at 164.10.
MCX CRUDE OIL MARCH: 1974 is the key support.Crude need to hold 1974 to be in Bullish zone.
Key resistances: 2127, 2237, 2386.
MCX ZINC FEBRUARY: Zinc has been trading in 54-59 zones. This zone will be broken soon. We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy as long as 49 hold.
Pivot point/key level: 56.50 and 58.50
MCX LEAD FEBRUARY: Lead has been trading in 53-59 range. This range will be broken soon. We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy as long as 49 hold.
Pivot point/key level: 57.40 and 59.80
MCX NICKEL FEBRAURY: Nickel needs to break 543 to be in bullish zone. However we prefer a buy on dips strategy as long as 475-480 zones holds.
| Technical Levels for 16 February 2009 | |||||||||
| Symbol | Expiry | RES 1 | RES 2 | RES 3 | Pivot | Sup 1 | Sup 2 | Sup3 | Signal |
| GOLD | 4-Apr-09 | 14646.67 | 14664.33 | 14680.67 | 14630.33 | 14612.67 | 14596.33 | 14578.67 | Sell Signal |
| SILVER | 5-Mar-09 | 21392.33 | 21430.67 | 21464.33 | 21358.67 | 21320.33 | 21286.67 | 21248.33 | Sell Signal |
| LEAD | 27-Feb-09 | 56.22 | 56.28 | 56.37 | 56.13 | 56.07 | 55.98 | 55.92 | Buy Signal |
| COPPER | 27-Feb-09 | 166.87 | 167.63 | 168.77 | 165.73 | 164.97 | 163.83 | 163.07 | Buy Signal |
| NICKEL | 27-Feb-09 | 507.10 | 508.60 | 510.20 | 505.50 | 504.00 | 502.40 | 500.90 | Buy Signal |
| CRUDEOIL | 13-Mar-09 | 2078.33 | 2085.67 | 2091.33 | 2072.67 | 2065.33 | 2059.67 | 2052.33 | Sell Signal |
| ZINC | 27-Feb-09 | 55.80 | 55.95 | 56.20 | 55.55 | 55.40 | 55.15 | 55.00 | Buy Signal |
| NATURALGAS | 20-Feb-09 | 217.00 | 217.60 | 218.00 | 216.60 | 216.00 | 215.60 | 215.00 | Sell Signal |
| MENTHAOIL | 28-Feb-09 | 521.77 | 524.63 | 526.77 | 519.63 | 516.77 | 514.63 | 511.77 | Sell Signal |
| ALUMINIUM | 27-Feb-09 | 66.25 | 66.35 | 66.50 | 66.10 | 66.00 | 65.85 | 65.75 | Buy Signal |
| REFSOYOIL | 14-Mar-09 | 453.23 | 454.67 | 456.53 | 451.37 | 449.93 | 448.07 | 446.63 | Buy Signal |
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