newsletter

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex continues to be very volatile with no convincing moves on either side of 10700 -11400.

The momentum trendline is where its taking the support for last few sessions which if broken ( 10900 ) may open up to 10650-10700 break possibilities. Similarly 11400 on upside opens up to 11900 levels. Ideally one shoudl wait for 2-3 sessions or volume supported move to confirm a breakout.

Wait and watch with a long weekend ahead its better to stay away from positional trades and investors should book partial profits in stocks bought at lower levels to reduce acquisition cost.

Stocks to watchout for :

Lnt did jump to 924 in the morning but could not hold and hit stop later. ONGC close to 830. Others also dint move up. In the last few sessions we did see lot of whipsaws where in stock did breakout but could not sustain but close stops and low volumes strategy might have made it less bad for traders. Even our trades KFA Mundra Lnt, nagar got stopped out but stops were small around 3-5 % and partial booking done at higher levels.

Currently we are seeing some small range breakdowns in stocks but prefer to take no trades tomorrow with the expiry and a long weekend. Strategy should be to conserve gains made in the last 2 months.

MY CHART

Nifty :: After spinning top candle pattern Nifty made an long black candle.. Nifty break an important level 3384 and that’s why short term momentum turns bearish.. May be on settlement day Bulls try to hold strong support zone in between 3301 to 3286.. If it is, we see an interesting flag pattern in coming day’s.. As far as stay above 3286 our strategy for 29^th April buy on deep (S.L 3286 hold short if break 3286) Sell at high (S.L 3426).. If Nifty move up change your strategy as sell at high (S.L 3426) Buy on deep.. Momentum once again change for short term if Nifty break 3426 and close above it.. Resistance for up move at 3412/3426/3434/3454/3518.. Supports at 3350/3301/3296/3286/3240/3175..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market began on weak note and saw selling pressure throughout the session and close with heavy loss .Since nifty had broken are long stoploss 3423 and close below it .For coming session if nifty trade below 3351 it will test 3310-3290 zones .On the other side trading above 3417 it will test 3450-3477 zones .On hourly chart RSI will get support near 40 level presently at 45 level

Axit D ShahHello Friends,

Sensex Daily LOG Chart View 1 :

Sensex Daily LOG Chart View 2 :

SENSEX : (11001.75) Today Sensex face resistance at 11114, if cross 11114 then goes up to 11266 and 11530. Sensex find support at 10850, if 10850 break then fall up to 10697 and 10434.

NIFTY : (3362.35) Today Nifty face resistance at 3398, if cross 3398 then goes up to 3446 and 3530. Nifty find support at 3315, if 3315 break then fall up to 3268 and 3184.

NIFTY APRIL FUTURES (As on 28th April 2009) closed at 3354.95 (Rs 7.40 Discount) with a turnover of Rs 13462.48 crores, sheds 5880300 shares (-24.86%) in open interest bringing down the open interest to 17770400 shares.

(*M J Akhtar*)

Long Side

1. Buy NIFTY Spot @ 3444 SL=3423 Targets=3454, 3490, 3500, 3518, 3532, 3546,
   
2. Buy RELIANCE Spot @ 1778 SL=1767 Targets=1783, 1801, 1806, 1815, 1823, 1830,
   
3. Buy SBI Spot @ 1282 SL=1271 Targets=1289, 1308, 1315, 1325, 1333, 1341,
   
4. Buy EDUCOMP Spot @ 2539 SL=2500 Targets=2562, 2636, 2659, 2696, 2726, 2756,
   
5. Buy ONGC Spot @ 845 SL=840 Targets=847, 855, 857, 861, 864, 867,
   
6. Buy ICICIBANK Spot @ 461 SL=455 Targets=465, 475, 479, 484, 488, 493,
   
7. Buy RELINFRA Spot @ 707 SL=697 Targets=714, 734, 740, 751, 759, 767,
   
8. Buy RELCAPITAL Spot @ 531 SL=522 Targets=536, 553, 558, 566, 573, 580,
   
9. Buy DLF Spot @ 242 SL=238 Targets=244, 251, 254, 257, 261, 264,
   
10. Buy ABAN Spot @ 426 SL=419 Targets=430, 444, 448, 454, 460, 465,
    
11. Buy BHEL Spot @ 1659 SL=1644 Targets=1667, 1693, 1701, 1714, 1725, 1736,
    
12. Buy INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1457 SL=1448 Targets=1462, 1477, 1481, 1489, 1495, 1501,
    
13. Buy NTPC Spot @ 188 SL=187 Targets=188, 190, 191, 192, 193, 193,
    
14. Buy BHARTIARTL Spot @ 741 SL=735 Targets=745, 755, 759, 764, 768, 773,
    
15. Buy ITC Spot @ 191 SL=190 Targets=192, 194, 195, 196, 196, 197,
    
16. Buy LT Spot @ 911 SL=902 Targets=916, 933, 938, 946, 953, 959,
    
17. Buy ABB Spot @ 492 SL=489 Targets=495, 501, 503, 507, 509, 512,
    
18. Buy HDFCBANK Spot @ 1112 SL=1102 Targets=1118, 1136, 1142, 1151, 1159, 1167,
    
19. Buy TATASTEEL Spot @ 251 SL=247 Targets=254, 261, 263, 267, 270, 273,
    
20. Buy MARUTI Spot @ 815 SL=809 Targets=817, 827, 829, 834, 838, 841,
    
21. Buy TATAMOTORS Spot @ 246 SL=242 Targets=248, 254, 256, 259, 261, 264,
    
22. Buy WIPRO Spot @ 326 SL=323 Targets=328, 332, 334, 336, 339, 341,
    
23. Buy BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5156 SL=5104 Targets=5185, 5279, 5308, 5355, 5393, 5431,
    

Short Side

1. Sell NIFTY Spot @ 3412 SL=3429 Targets=3398, 3380, 3369, 3334, 3323, 3305, 3291, 3277,
   
2. Sell RELIANCE Spot @ 1762 SL=1770 Targets=1754, 1745, 1740, 1722, 1717, 1708, 1701, 1693,
   
3. Sell SBI Spot @ 1264 SL=1274 Targets=1256, 1246, 1240, 1220, 1214, 1204, 1196, 1188,
   
4. Sell EDUCOMP Spot @ 2472 SL=2504 Targets=2442, 2405, 2382, 2308, 2285, 2248, 2218, 2188,
   
5. Sell ONGC Spot @ 838 SL=842 Targets=835, 831, 829, 821, 819, 815, 812, 809,
   
6. Sell ICICIBANK Spot @ 452 SL=456 Targets=447, 442, 438, 428, 424, 419, 415, 410,
   
7. Sell RELINFRA Spot @ 689 SL=698 Targets=681, 670, 664, 644, 638, 627, 619, 611,
   
8. Sell RELCAPITAL Spot @ 516 SL=523 Targets=510, 501, 496, 479, 474, 466, 459, 453,
   
9. Sell DLF Spot @ 235 SL=238 Targets=232, 228, 226, 218, 216, 212, 209, 206,
   
10. Sell ABAN Spot @ 415 SL=420 Targets=409, 403, 399, 385, 381, 375, 370, 364,
    
11. Sell BHEL Spot @ 1635 SL=1647 Targets=1624, 1611, 1603, 1577, 1569, 1556, 1545, 1534,
    
12. Sell INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1444 SL=1451 Targets=1438, 1430, 1425, 1411, 1406, 1398, 1392, 1386,
    
13. Sell NTPC Spot @ 186 SL=187 Targets=185, 185, 184, 182, 181, 181, 180, 179,
    
14. Sell BHARTIARTL Spot @ 731 SL=736 Targets=727, 722, 718, 708, 704, 699, 695, 690,
    
15. Sell ITC Spot @ 189 SL=190 Targets=188, 187, 187, 185, 184, 183, 182, 181,
    
16. Sell LT Spot @ 896 SL=904 Targets=890, 882, 876, 860, 855, 847, 840, 833,
    
17. Sell ABB Spot @ 486 SL=490 Targets=484, 480, 478, 472, 469, 466, 463, 461,
    
18. Sell HDFCBANK Spot @ 1095 SL=1104 Targets=1087, 1078, 1072, 1054, 1048, 1039, 1031, 1023,
    
19. Sell TATASTEEL Spot @ 245 SL=248 Targets=242, 238, 236, 228, 226, 222, 219, 216,
    
20. Sell MARUTI Spot @ 806 SL=811 Targets=803, 798, 795, 786, 783, 778, 775, 771,
    
21. Sell TATAMOTORS Spot @ 240 SL=243 Targets=238, 235, 233, 226, 224, 221, 219, 216,
    
22. Sell WIPRO Spot @ 322 SL=324 Targets=319, 317, 315, 311, 309, 307, 305, 302,
    
23. Sell BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5071 SL=5113 Targets=5033, 4986, 4956, 4862, 4833, 4786, 4748, 4710,
    

5 DSMA OF VIX IS 51 SO NO POSITIONAL TRADES.

Ilango)

Nifty finally caved into the weakening TA with some -ve div, a potential double top, consistently weak world cues and a major channel break coupled with 2 day swing reversal & closing below short term averages.

During the earlier fall from 3510, 3295-3310 gave multiple supports.
Now the 20 DMA has moved up to that range. So we might pause around that level again.

Market has shown resistances at 3420 & 3440...and now towards supports.
With daily having turned down, it is unwinding as well as sell on bounces till a reversal signs emerge...





Santy

Well, as anticipated Nifty traded lower all day through meeting Sell order target from 3470 to 3400. But it again found resistance near 3400 and closed at 3360. Nearest support is seen at 3330/3300 area. Tomorrow market is expected not to test this support level, rather could move higher after making small intraday lows near 3350/3340 level. So watch the opening level, if nifty finds support near 3350/3340 level ( look for patterns, HH/HL, triangle, channel in small time frame), then BUY above 3350 with stop loss below 3315 for target at 3420/3440. However, if nifty tests 3330/3320 level and gets resistance, then BUY signal voids and wait for next opportunity to go LONG or SHORT.

(SVShah)

Result : CANARABANK / DABUR / TITAN / PATNI / ALSTOM / APOLLOTYRES / KECINTL / BOI / BHARTSHIP / CEAT

NIFTY (3362.35)

Resistance : 3405 / 3430 / 3455 / 3500

Support : 3310 / 3270 / 3220

SENSEX

Resistance : 11200 / 11260 / 11520

Support : 10850 / 10740 / 10700 / 10500

NIFTY FUT (3355)

Resistance : 3425 / 3455 / 3495 / 3515

Support : 3315 / 3295 / 3270 / 3235

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) marginal down with increasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions in current series plus forming of short positions in next series.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile due to expiry.

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 3370,Sl Abv 3390,Tgt 3340/3320/3275/3260,

Sustain Above 3390,Buy with Sl Below 3370,Tgt 3435/3455/3495/3515.

Sell BOMBAYDYIENG Below 170,Tgt 160/55/50,Sl 175

Sell SBI (1236),Tgt 1230/20/10,Sl Above 1250

Sell JETAIRWAYS Below 190,Tgt 185/80,Sl 195

Sell ASIANPNT Below 875,Tgt 865/55/30,Sl 890

Sell BOB Below 305,Tgt 295/80/50,Sl 315

Sell BHARTI Below 725,Tgt 705/690/670+,Sl 735

Buy BIOCON Above 145,Tgt 155/65/80,Sl 140

Buy COLGATE Above 480,Tgt 495/510/40,Sl 465

Buy GAIL Above 250,Tgt 255/60/65,Sl 245

Buy INFOSYS Above 1465/70

FUTURES

Buy BIRLACORP 196/97,Sl 195,Tgt 198.7/99.5/200.4/202.3/204.4/206/208/210/212 (Lot Size : 3400)

Sell HDFCBANK 1085/95,Sl 1110,Tgt 1075/70/1065/1055/1045/1035+ (Lot Size : 400)

Sell BHARTI (725.7) 735,Sl 745,Tgt 720/15/05++

Sell RIL 1750/60,Sl 1780,Tgt 1730/20/05 (If Close Below 1720,Hold Shorts With Sl 1750/60)

NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Pasting yest view as it still remains the same.

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex bounces back sharply from the momentum trendline which was around 10700 and is now in striking distance of the recent highs of 11370.

The flag range is almost 600 points which implies 2-3 sessions above 11350-11400 could lead to a similar move. Possible targets 11650/11900.

Lot many global indices are similarly shaped and some have broken above the March 2nd week high ( similar to Sensex 11370 ). A small breakout move in the week could be witnessed in many global indices. ( CHECK POST BELOW FOR GLOBAL INDICES CHARTS )

As explained below a breakout if happens in short term above 11370-11400 on sustaining basis would be very volatile and trick stops of traders also. Investors should look to book profits , re-shuffle their portfolio and reduce stocks which they are not truly convinced of and build a stronger portfolio.

The current move if one has to trade then should be nimble footed and strict as there might be many whipsaws in specific stocks also. Reduce volumes if not able to follow discipline.

Stocks to watchout for :

Larsen is about to breakout above 910 , KFA tricks with a pullback 38.5 stop if already taken, Mundra not yet moved above 420.

Max continue to remain bullish in the long run 155 zone resistance for now.

CIPLA

The stock has given a breakout above 245 zones today but did not sustain. If continues to stay above 234 may expect a move to 265 levels also.

Risky trading picks --- Keep volumes low and strict stops

Voltas can give a small move if holds above 58. Tgts 66/72.

LnT stop of 884 can tgt 940-960 zones also.

ONGC stop 830 tgt 885-900. Weak below 830

(NOORESH)

Sensex -

Forming a flag around the top of channel

Nikkei also a flag around the top of channel

CAC - France also close to top of channel

FTSE - also a flag but not a clear channel

Dow Jones - Clear channel and sideways flag ...

Observations :

As we see all world indices have clearly come to the top of the channel and many of them are making flags around this zone.

Technically a flag breakout is a continuation pattern. Currently we are in an extreme short term uptrend so a breakout above the highs of the last few weeks may lead to a smart move.

As its a major channel breakout which is almost a 25-40% would be very difficult to get clearly out of it in the first move. So a breakout from here may also be illusionary but quick with lots of volatility and investors should be out of their holdings in this period then to try trade it ( nimble footed traders can definitely use it )

Possibly we could see a quick move with volatility which may be equivalent to the size of flag which is around 7-12 % in log basis. The consolidation in the flag has not lasted many sessions so a breakout move has to be very choppy and volatile.

Continue to watch the lower line of the flags or short term lows for a trend change! in coming days or to keep trailing stops closer to those momentum/flag lines.

(Rajandran)

CMP : Rs 442 Technicals Bullish 20/50 day EMA crossover in Aban on daily charts. Its a crade buy with stop loss 425 on EOD basis. Fundamentals Aban Offshore has announced its fourth quarter results. The company's Q4 consolidated net loss stood at Rs 93.04 crore versus net profit of Rs 33.92 crore. Its consolidated net sales were up 16.99% at Rs 774.08 crore versus Rs 661.64 crore and operating profit margin, OPM improved to 55.72% versus 50.65%.

Essar Oil
The statement I check first is usually the balance sheet. Essar oil has a debt of almost 10000 Crores with a debt equity ratio of 1:5. In addition, the company has had losses in the last 3 of 5 years. The management also does not inspire confidence in this company. In a nutshell, the company and its fundamentals are too speculative for me.

Jai corp
The company has a very low debt level and seems to have raised considerable equity, to the tune of 2000 odd crs to fund the SEZ and real estate initiatives . Due to this high level of liquid cash, the company has considerable other income too. The income statement, net of this non core income, shows a profit margin of 6-7% (fy 2009).
Based on an expected turnover of around 400 Crs, the core operating profit after tax could be in the range of 25-30 Crs. Based on the above numbers, the company seems to be selling at a PE of around 40 (after netting cash from market cap and considering only the operating income).
The market is clearly pricing some of the new initiatives in the current price. It is quite possible the new initiative would do well and the current price could be a bargain. However evaluating SEZ and real estate initiatives is beyond my circle of competence and hence I avoid such types of ideas.

KLG systel
The company looks very cheap based on fundamentals selling at around 3-4 PE (based on Enterprise value). However I started with the analysis of the balance sheet and saw warrants being issued to promoters and some strategic investors at a price of around 351 when the market price was in excess of 400. The dilution was around 10-11% due to the warrants. In addition the company has also raised some usd 22 million through Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds.

My analysis of this company ends here. I am not interested in companies where the minority shareholder is diluted by preferentail allotment of warrants at prices lower than market price. If you think warrants in themselves are free, then by that logic call options which are similar to warrants should be free too. Have you seen any call options available for free in the stock market (especially with a strike price below current price?)

If the company needs capital, when why not have rights issue where all the existing shareholders get an equal opportunity ?

Selection criteria too strict ?
Should it be otherwise ? I typically hold 12-15 stocks in my core portfolio. A new idea should be of equal quality and better valuation for me to replace an existing one.

The above analysis was done in matter of a few hours. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) for me all the stars and planets and the rest of the stuff has to line up for me to start investigating the stock further. Even with all due diligence, I manage to get it wrong several times. I am definitely not stepping into those ideas where there are red flags or the company itself is out of my circle of competence.

MY CHART

Nifty :: Sensex and Nifty both made higher high today but Sensex close above last high and Nifty close below it . Once again Nifty made a Spinning top candle pattern at resistance zone.. From last three days we constantly indicate such kind of situation with highlighted white color.. Slowly-slowly both indices made an negative divergence at higher level.. As far as hold above 3384 situation under control for bulls.. For 28^th April watch two level above 3467 momentum seems up below 3450 momentum down .. Our strategy for 28^th April above 3467 buy on deep (S.L 3450) Sell at high.. Below 3450 sell at high (S.L 3467) Buy on deep (S.L 3384).. Resistance for up move at 3512/3518/3543/3572/ 3610/3636… Supports at 3450/3431/3400/3384…

(Be careful at higher level Nifty heading towards target level and enter in strong resistance zone.. All indicators are in overbought zone with negative divergence. Book profit at every high and avoid to give long commitment at higher level)

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on lower note tracking weak global cues saw volatile session and close on flat note . For coming session 3416-3380 good support zone for nifty if nifty trade above 3492 it will test 3517-3542 zones. On the other side trading below 3443 it will test 3417-3380 levels.

(*M J Akhtar*)

Long Side

• Buy NIFTY Spot @ 3498 SL=3483 Targets=3505, 3529, 3537, 3549, 3558, 3568,
• Buy BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5227 SL=5183 Targets=5250, 5327, 5351, 5389, 5420, 5451,
  

Short Side

• Sell NIFTY Spot @ 3476 SL=3489 Targets=3467, 3455, 3447, 3423, 3416, 3404, 3394, 3385,
  
• Sell BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5157 SL=5193 Targets=5126, 5088, 5064, 4987, 4964, 4925, 4894, 4863,

(Ilango)

Uptrend continues. But momentum has weakened..If it is a correction, it should hold 3440 or 3400.A move past 3485-3495 may bring in the momentum.
With a long weekend ahead, volatality will be high as it was today.
Buy/ sell in the range of 3420 - 3520. Break on either side may bring in the momentum.

Santy

Today Nifty did not give us any opportunity to trade because of lacklustre behaviour from 3500 to 3450. As we have discussed in previous post, now major markets are in a very important level and everybody is waiting to see which way market is going to unfold, either break through the high( above 3520 for Nifty) to resume the uptrend or break below the nearest support( 3415 for Nifty) for a potential trend change to downside. Tomorrow market could be indecisive and hence it is advisable not to take big risk. If market opens higher but struggles to sustain the peak, then watch to SELL below 3480 with stop loss above 3520 for target at 3420/3400. However, if market opens lower, but continues to go higher after some consolidation, then BUY above 3440 with stop loss below 3415 for target at 3480/3500/3520.

BSE Sensex has sucessfully broken out of Descending Channel thus affirming short term bullishness. Now for further target is 11400-11500 for the BSE Sensex.
The Steep ascending or uptrend channel on BSE Sensex has ruptured on the downside. But last friday candle 24/04/2009 has again gone back into the steep uptrend channel.This fastest rally has covered an almost 3200 points from low of 8160 on 09/03/2009 to high of 11367 on 17/04/2009. In the period of 30/3/2009 -17/04/2009 many simple & runaway-gaps up have also been identified in the uptrend channel. The rally which started with a piercing line trend reversal candle pattern on 30/03/2009, has now been slowed down with another powerful trend reversal candle pattern called "Dark Cloud Cover". This Dark Cloud Cover Candle pattern is top reversal powerful candle pattern.
If this Dark cloud Cover Candle pattern gets negated,then it means a this rally is very powerful indeed. Also this rally is going ahead on a rising volume. On monday longs should be careful and shorts also should be careful, since the BSE Sensex is still in the uptrend channel. As long as uptrend channel is intact the old longs are safe. If the weakness persists on higher levels, then lower side of the steep uptrend channel (10500-10700) may offer a good support level for fresh longs.
Short should only venture if the uptrend channel breaks-out or ruptures on downside with a volume.With strict stop loss.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Highlighted Till 27/04/2009

Moving Averages
In the daily chart of BSE Sensex the last week all moving average from 13ema,34ema,50sma & 100sma were successfully crossed.The week of 20/04/2009 to 24/04/2009 proved to be giving tough resistance to 200 dma. But on 24/04/2009 last friday 200 dma has been crossed by BSE Sensex in daily chart..

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 27/04/2009

Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2008, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was identified. Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms. Current BSE Sensex structure is (Higher Tops - Higher Bottoms, Lower tops - Lower bottoms). The range between 10200-10700 is good support zone for BSE Sensex on reaction to downside.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator is in overbought zone, indicating a strong rally. As long as KST Indicator remains in overbought zone bulls can be comfortable.

Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."

Volume
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 indicated accumulation. This accumulation is being authenticated by this powerful rally starting from end of March 2009. On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen.In April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which is good indicator that the this rally is a powerful one.

Trendline
Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossovered the descending channel on the upside.

Retracement
Since the fall from high of 21237...January 2008,the retracements of 32%-13097, the 50%-10597 & 61.8% -8096 levels.
BSE Sensex on 6/03/2009 made a low of 8047, thus covering 61.8% of the total fall and on 08/04/2009 crossed 10597, thus covering 50% retracement of total fall.

Sensex Key Support Level-- ----10673, 10998,11211

Sensex Key Resistance Level--- 11367,11456,115021.

BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 27/04/2009

Currently in Weekly BSE Sensex Chart, on friday weekly closing has given a breakout of weekly descending channel.But this weekly breakout needs more confirmation in coming weeks.On further persistance of rally, the target of symmetrical triangle may become achievable.
So currently 11400-11500 is very crucial level for the BSE Sensex & breakout above the Weekly descending channel.
Old Overview of BSE Sensex Weekly Chart.
In the Above Sensex Weekly Chart from the high in January 2008, BSE Sensex has been trading in Weekly Descending channel. In October 2008 sensex broke out of descending channel signalling exhaustion and since then has been trading side ways below the descending Channel. This sideways trading has given to formation of symmetrical triangle.The symmetrical triangle often referred to as side-ways or consolidation pattern. It means before embarking upon any trend, it is breather period.The last week it was indicated that we will revisit the Symmetrical Triangle once again. Since Late february 2009-insert- bseseb 08/03/2009- it was indicative that BSE Sensex may give a down fall. Hence bearish scenario was taken into account.
Symmetrical triangle though are a continuation pattern usually. But sometimes Triangles may act as a reversal pattern also. As it is Triangles are one of the most trickiest patterns. Hence we revisit the pattern in BSE Sensex Weekly and have a re-look at our targets.
This weekly Triangle has given breakout downward at 9250. So now we will consider 9250 for calculations purpose.

The calculations is as follows:The base of the triangle is (High 11870-Low 7700) = 4170.

Upward target after Breakout will be (9250+4170) = 13420.

Again this target of 13420 can be said to be achievable provided the uptrend line of the weekly descending channel (as seen in the BSE Sensex Weekly Chart) is crossed by the BSE Sensex on the upside which is 11400-11500 currently.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST though in the oversold zone but have given bullish cross over and is going up to zeroline,indicating rise in upward momentum..
But still the intermediate tone can still said to be bearish in the BSE Sensex. Unless KST indicator gives breakout upside into overbought zone, intermediate bullishness cannot be affirmed.

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 27/04/2009
The January 2009 and February 2009 Candle pattern was Bullish Engulfing Pattern.The March monthly Candle was bullish belt hold line candle pattern.In the BSE Sensex monthly chart the sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8155 & 50 sma is at 12176 . Also for the purpose of clarity we keep The Dynamic triangle-pattern on the backburner till April 2009 candle is taken into consideration.
Unless 11400-11500 area is not crossed by BSE Sensex, the room for down fall remains. As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low of the year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in over sold zone. KST Oscillator have not given any indication of forming any patterns or divergence. But possibilty of bullish crossing KST Indicator can be anticipated if upmarch of BSE Sensex continues.

NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex bounces back sharply from the momentum trendline which was around 10700 and is now in striking distance of the recent highs of 11370.

The flag range is almost 600 points which implies 2-3 sessions above 11350-11400 could lead to a similar move. Possible targets 11650/11900.

Lot many global indices are similarly shaped and some have broken above the March 2nd week high ( similar to Sensex 11370 ). A small breakout move in the week could be witnessed in many global indices.

The only concern is the no of sessions in the flag are less which is a good scenario for a strong trending market but currently we may still be on the pullback move of the entire downfall from 21k-8k. So one needs to be purely short term in nature as markets have already given a sharp move.

Stocks to watchout for :

Grasim shoots up. Adani does tgts. Mundra still good chart posted below. TRIL breakout and GDL a pullback move.

Lot many charts are seeing flag/pennants patterns which if broken could lead to a move similar to the flag size. HDFC Bank , LnT , HDFC Ltd, Reliance Infra and many more in the midcaps. So such a breakout has many options to be traded but keep a strict trading policy of small stops and booking at targets and trailing.

The flag breakout trades have to be very quick and supported with volumes and in some of the cases we might see whipsaws so be nimble footed.

Mundra Port , LnT , Kingfisher Airlines technical chart posted and many more do look similar but have discussed only a few out here.

Technical trackers can check for similar patterns in other stocks namely Orchid Chemicals , JP associates , Sesa Goa, Ashok leyland some fertiliser and sugaar stocks....

MY CHART

Nifty :: As far as stay above 3460 momentum seems up, and hold 3356 nothing to worry for bulls .. For 27^th April watch first resistance 3507 and last high 3512.. Above 3512 momentum once again turns strong.. Our strategy for 27^th April up to 3460 buy on deep (S.L 3400) Sell at high (S.L 3636).. Below 3460 sell at high (S.L 3495) Buy on deep (S.L 3356).. Resistance for up move at 3507/3530/3542/3552/3572/3607/3636.. Supports at 3460/3413/3400/3356..

(Be careful at higher level Nifty heading towards target level and enter in strong resistance zone.. All indicators are in overbought zone. Use this opportunity as profit booking)

(Inder Bhatia)

I had attached four weekly chart out of that three are invert chart for clear direction
and what happen at 2000-2002 how the bear market rally over and this week we had close abovemajor trendline that first n early sign bear are weaking bear market coming to end after 2-3 week we can see correction but that correction will good buying opportunity for bulls and plus we need doubble confirmation from RSI.

(Inder Bhatia)

NiftyDaily Last week market extended the gains by 2.8% in nifty for the seven consecutive week. Last week we had seen bulls and bears are fighting near 200SMA but bulls win the battle and close above 200Days it indicate more upside toward 3640-3793 zones .On daily chart nifty seen pennant breakout that bullish pattern logical target 3750 . For coming session if nifty cross 3514 zone it will test 3583-3643 zone .On the lower side closing below 3423 zone it will test 3383-3353 zone .Market are trading overbought zone on daily chart move stoploss 3290 to 3440 on closing basis

NiftyHourly The Indian market opened on flat note and remained choppy through the first session saw smart buying in afternoon session and close near days high .For coming session if nifty trade above 3513 it will test 3583 and 3630 zones .On the lower-side 3440-3421 zone will act as support zone .For long 3440 levels will stop-loss on closing basis.

BUYABGSHIP ABOVE137.50 TGT 145>157 STOPLOSS 131
BUY CENTURY TEX ABOVE 239 TGT 250>255STOPLOSS 233

BUY SINTEX ABOVE 142 TGT 146>150 STOPLOSS 139

BUY AXIS BANK 532 TGT 545 >561 STOPLOSS 523

BUY ADLABS 238.70 TGT 247>263 STOPLOSS 231

Nifty weekly chart seen breakout and close above major downward sloping line next resistances 3793 and strong support 3240-3173

(AGB)

Nifty spent the last week consolidating giving a hint of its intentions in Friday's trading. The attached chart shows it clearly, the fast averages are once again attempting to crossover signalling the start of another leg up. Despite all this, I continue to be reluctant to dip my toes in the water from the long side as I remain unconvinced that this rally will hold long term steam. On the weekly charts 3640-3650 still remains a formidable target for Nifty and for me it's a place to attempt a short.

















I am also attaching the chart of S&P 500 showing the progress of the Trend Channel that I had tried to anticipate a couple of weeks back. As we can see from the attached chart - prices have already taken resistance once and could approach the outer line of the channel now. As usual, all the best for your trading this week.

(Azad)

RELIANCE : (1788.85)

Buy Above 1785 target 1-1818, target 2-1847, stop loss 1770
Sell Below 1770 target 1-1743, target 2-1697, stop loss 1785

REL CAPITAL : (557.65)

Buy Above 555 target 1-570, target 2-583, stop loss 548
Sell Below 548 target 1-537, target 2-517, stop loss 555

REL INFRA : (740.50)

Buy Above 735 target 1-758, target 2-774, stop loss 730
Sell Below 730 target 1-713, target 2-686, stop loss 735

RANBAXY : (175.90)

Sell Below 171 target 1-165, target 2-152, stop loss 180

ABAN : (485.80)

Buy Above 492 target 1-500, target 2-512, target 3-532, stop loss 478
Sell Below 478 target 1-466, target 2-426, stop loss 492

AXIS BANK : (529.60)

Buy Above 530 target 1-543, target 2-556, target 3-571, stop loss 520
Sell Below 520 target 1-504, target 2-489, stop loss 530

GAIL : (251.55)

Buy Above 251 target 1-259, target 2-285, stop loss 245

ICICI BANK : (434.10)

Sell Below 428 target 1-419, target 2-405, target 3-391, stop loss 441

KS OILS : (48.25)

Buy Above 48 target 1-53, target 2-61, stop loss 45

SYNDIBANK : (56.85)

Buy Above 57 target 1-60, target 2-64, target 3-74, stop loss 52





(SVShah)

NIFTY (3480.75)

Resistance : 3515 / 3550 / 3580

Support : 3455 / 3425 / 3395 / 3360

SENSEX (11329.05) : Sustained Above 11350/450 Levels,Huge Resistances At 12200/12500,If 12200/500 Not Sustained We May Have A Fall Upto 11000/10700 Levels.

Resistance : 11385 / 11440 / 11485 / 11550

Support : 11295 / 11255 / 11200 / 11145 / 10960

NIFTY FUT (3482.05) : Expect Market To Make Resistance At 3560 Levels,Where Selling Pressure May /be Seen (Only Intrday Basis)

Resistance : 3520 / 3535 / 3560 / 3620 / 3650

Support : 3465 / 3425 / 3390 / 3350

BANK NIFTY (5127.5)

Resistance : 5210 / 5290

Support : 5075 / 4990 / 4860

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) marginal down with decreasing volumes indicating short covering plus forming of long positions for BTST.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.Weekly Charts are Strong for more Upmove,After Expiry may see Breakout Above 3745/3780 Levels.

On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3490,Sl Below 3470,Tgt 3505/3525/3545/3570/3595,

Sustain Below 3460,Sell with Sl Above 3480,Tgt 3425/3390/3370/3345.

Positional Traders : Buy NIFTY,Sl 3430,Tgt 3520 / 3550

Results : JPASS / BOB / AREVA / INDIANBANK / ABANOFF / CASTROL / RENUKASUGAR / GEOMETRIC / UNITEDSPRITS

April 27& 28,Markets Can Move Up,excepts Some Minor Intraday Corrections.While On April 29,We May A Fall From The Highs During Opening Bell

Buy INFOSYS Aboce 1465

Buy BAJAJHIND Above 77,Tgt 80/85/85,Sl 75

Buy RPOWER Above 134/35,Tgt 145/50/55+,Sl 125

Buy RELINFRA,Tgt 750/775/800,Sl 715

Buy RCOM Above 205,Tgt 215/20/25,Sl 200 (Positional Sl 190,Tgt 230/40/50+)

Buy SBI (1311),Tgt 1335/50/65/75+,Sl 1290

Buy CANBNK Around 195,Tgt 200/05/10/15,Sl 190

Buy DRREDDY Above 555/60,Tgt 565/70/75,Sl 445

Buy HEROHONDA Above 1150,Tgt 1165/80/1225,Sl 1130

Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 620,Tgt 610/590/560,Sl 635

Sell TATAELEXSI Below 106,Tgt 104/100/95+,Sl 110

Sell TATASTEEL Below 260,Tgt 255/45/30,Sl 270

FUTURES

Buy GSPL (41.35),Sl 38.5,Tgt 45/48+

Buy LT (886.25) 865/75,Sl 855,Tgt 900/05/10/20

Buy REL (739.5) 715/25,Sl 700,Tgt 745/60+

Buy RIL (1785) 1755/65,Sl 1745,Tgt 1800/15/35/45

Buy INDIACEM@ 124/25,Sl 122,Tgt 127/127.5/128/129.3/130.6/131.5/133 (Lot Size : 2900)

Sell ZEEL@ 117/14,Sl 122,Tgt 112.2/111/109.5/108.7/107.6/106 (Lot Size : 2800)

COMMODITY

Buy June GOLD Above 14675,Tgt 14770/905/15230,Sl 14615

Sell GOLD Below 14560,Tgt 14420/205/095,Sl 14615

Buy May SILVER Above 21240,Tgt 21420/650/905,Sl 21140

Sell SILVER Below 21045,Tgt 20820/450/260,Sl 21140

Buy May CRUDE Above 2555,Tgt 2615/55/90+,Sl 2545

Sell CRUDE Below 2535,Tgt 2495/15/2300,Sl 2545

Buy April COPPER Above 225.3,Tgt 229.1/232.1/242.2,Sl 223.8

Sell COPPER Below 222.1,Tgt 218.9/211.9/201.8,Sl 223.8

(SVShah)

NIFTY (3480.75)

Resistance : 3520 / 3565 / 3620 / 3685 / 3745 / 3780

Support : 3420 / 3355 / 3320 / 3265 / 3230 / 3160

SENSEX (11329.05)

Resistance : 11450 / 11560 / 11685 / 11785 / 12015

Support : 11135 / 10900 / 10790 / 10565 / 10485 / 10315

NIFTY FUT (3482.05)

Resistance : 3555 / 3630

Support : 3420 / 3345 / 3215

BANK NIFTY (5127.5)

Resistance : 5375 / 5620

Support : 4955 / 4700 / 4290

View for Week Starting 26 April 2009

NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Bullish

Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 3.23%, NIFTY FUT up 2.98% last week. OI of NIFTY 3400 CE is up 6.90% prices up 15.38% last week showing short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is up 45.26% prices down 15.85%, NIFTY 3600 CE is up 20.58% prices down 49.83% and 3700 CE is up 9.11% prices down 72.45% last week showing buying at lower levels.

OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is up 36.60% prices down 86.08%, NIFTY 3400 PE is up 58.87% prices down 77.69% and NIFTY 3500 PE is up 81.76% prices down 64.09% showing aggressive put writing.

We expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move next week. The rally looks to continue with the support from other markets around the globe.

NIFTY SPOT resistance at 3510-20, 3555-65 levels, strong resistance at 3615.20 levels. On downside, NIFTY SPOT support at 3430-20, strong support at 3365-55 levels.

SOME STOCK FUTS
Trend : Bullish

Total OI of DABUR FUT up 186% prices up 9.22%, LICHSGFIN FUT up 107% prices up 21.54%, RIIL FUT up 95.84% prices up 8.45%, IDBI FUT up 68.99% prices up 9.01%, ADLABSFILM FUT up 46.36% prices up 8.60% last week showing long positions build up in these STOCK FUTS.

TELECOM Sector looks to be Hot among Traders. OIL & GAS is also another sector to look out for. We Expect MID & SMALL Caps Also To Outperform This Week Due To Expiry.

We expect any profit booking should be followed by up move next week.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 3.23%, NIFTY FUT closed up 2.98% last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 32 Stock FUTS closed positive, 9 Stock FUTs closed negative and 9 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
3) OI of NIFTY 3400 CE is up 6.90% prices up 15.38% last week showing short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is 45.26% prices down 15.85%, NIFTY 3600 CE is up 20.58% prices down 49.83% last week showing buying at lower levels. OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is 55.42 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is up by 36.60% prices down 86.08%, NIFTY 3400 PE is up by 58.87% prices down 77.69% and NIFTY 3500 PE is up 81.76% prices down 64.09% last week showing aggressive put writing. OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is 70.94 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of APR series CALLs is up by 14.72 LK to 2.85 CR. APR series PUTs is up by 23.06 LK to 5.37 CR last week. APR series PCR (OI) at 1.88.

Conclusion :-

I expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move next week with possibility of profit booking at higher levels. In this week we shall hit the target of double bottoms at 3700 which were spotted at 2900.

The Current Wave (Major) which started at 2500 looks to top out at 3900. Good to book out Partial Profits in Stocks. Investments for a Horizon of more than 3-4 months are not advised.

NIFTY SPOT resistance at 3510-20, 3555-65 levels. Above 3565 level, next target will be 3615-20 levels. Profit expected above 3620 levels.

On down side, NIFTY SPOT support at 3430-20 levels, below 3420 levels, strong support at 3365-55 levels.

Buy For Short Term (Delivery / Positional)

ABANOFF 475/85 ; ESSARSHIP 42/44 ; WOCKHARDT 101/104,Tgt 110/15+

TORRENTPOWER ,Tgt 110/20/30 ; MOSERBAER 65/67,Tgt 70/75/80++

SHIVVANI 157/160,Tgt 180/200/210+ ; VIDEOCONINDS 120/125,Tgt 150/175/200

Weekly

GOLD

Support($) : 890 / 915

Resistance($) : 925 / 940

CRUDE Looks Hot , Buy At Lower Levels

Tgt($) : 52.95 / 53.7 / 54.2

Dow industrial is almost at the resistance which I had been writing since last few week.it attempted 8175 and closed lower every time it tried to cross. If sustains now can be a journey towards 8800-9000.