BUY RPLABOVE 104 TGT 109>113 STOPLOSS 102
BUY BHARATFORGE ABOVE 108.50 TGT 113>117>121STOPLOSS 106
Last week market extended the gains by 3.3% in nifty and cross the main hurdle 3150 levels .For coming weeks trading above 3250zones it will test 3353-3430 levels .On the upside there is strong and major downward sloping trendline resistances near 3460 levels as shown in chart. Last week we had update about RSI is indicating about trend is shifting from Bears to Bulls and technically third or fourth attempt makes bulls or bear weak to hold on there zone . For this week closing below 3130 it will kiss 3086-3039 levels .
The Indian market opened big gap-up and traded in one direction crossing the main hurdle 3170 level s and close above 3200 zones .For coming session nifty is heading toward major hurdle 3240 zones. If nifty opened gap up on Monday above 3250 nifty is heading toward 3360-3400 levels . On the other side 3150-3055 zone will act support zone .Market are in over bought zones.
Notables Observes:
- Infosys technologies limited, is a public limited and India's second largest software exporter company incorporated in the year 1981 as Infosys consultants private limited by Mr.N.R.Narayana Murthy at karnataka, who is chairman and chief mentor of the company.
- Infosys is a groundbreaking company in the field of information technology and it enjoys the privilege of being a dept free company.
- It's only the company to be part of the major global index.Company offers the services of consulting, process re-engineering, modular global sourcing and Business Process Outsourcing services .
- It has developed finacle, a universal banking solution to large and medium size banks across India and oversees.
- Its has five wholly owned subsidiaries namely as Infosys technologies China, Infosys technologies Australia, Infosys consultancy INC, Infosys BPO SRO and Infosys BPO Ltd previously known as progeon.
Share Holding patern :
- Promoter : 16.50 %
- Public : 64.39 %
- Custodian : 19.11%
Financial Highlights :
- Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 1641.00 Crore for the quarter ending on 31-DEC-2008 against Rs. 1432.00 Crore for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2008.
- Net Sales of Rs. 5786.00 Crore for quarter ending on 31-DEC-2008 against Rs. 5418.00 Crore for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2008.
Technical Overview :
- The stock On Daily Chart has given "Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern" breakout with huge volume , indicating the trend reversal and beginning of an uptrend. The stock is recomended to buy cmp Rs 1420.40
Support Levels :
- Support 1 : 1378
- Support 2 : 1343
Stop Loss : 1317 on closing basis.
Target :
- Targets 1 : 1513
- Targets 2 : 1640
- Targets 3 : 1790
Period : 4 to 5 months.
Notables Observes:
- Reliance Communications Limited (RCL) is the flagship company of the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG), is India's largest private sector information and communications company with over 48 million subscribers.
- It was established in the year 2004 as Reliance Infrastructure Developers Private Limited, Reliance Communications started laying 60,000 route kilometres of a pan-India fibre optic backbone with high capacity, integrated (wireless and wireline), convergent (voice, data and video) digital network and to offer services spanning the entire infocomm value chain.
- It is capable of delivering a range of services spanning the entire infocomm (information and communication) value chain, including infrastructure and services for enterprises as well as individuals, applications, and consulting.
- The Company's business encompasses a complete range of telecom services covering mobile and fixed line telephony. It includes broadband, national and international long distance services and data services along with an exhaustive range of value-added services and applications.
Share Holding patern :
- Promoter : 66.12 %
- Public : 31.49 %
- Custodian : 2.39%
Financial Highlights :
- Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 1410.31 Crore for the quarter ending on 31-DEC-2008 against Rs. 1610.80 Crore for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2008.
- Net Sales of Rs. 5441.53 Crore for quarter ending on 31-DEC-2008 against Rs. 5026.31 Crore for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2008.
Technical Overview :
- The stock On weekly Chart has closed above the Trendline connecting all the tops as shown the in chart above.
- And also has formed "Higher Tops & Higher Bottoms" for last 3 weeks indicating the trend reversal and beginning of an uptrend. The stock is recomended to buy cmp Rs 196.15
Support Levels :
- Support 1 : 184
- Support 2 : 165
- Support 3 : 158
Stop Loss : 150 on closing basis.
Targets :
- Target 1 : 229
- Target 2 : 265
- Target 3 : 288
Period : 2 to 3 months.
Within the weekly scale wave1(tentative till 3254 is broken) we are in new uptrend in daily scale from 2540 with the following internal wave structure:
Wave1 2540-2840 300 pts
Wave2 2840-2770 70 pts
Wave3 2770ègoing on with internal 1-5 with
Tgt1 3120 (done)
tgt2 3240-3255
tgt3 3500-3540
tg4 3700-3730
wave4 pending
wave5 pending
Note: THE INVALIDATION POINT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS ON TODAY STANDS AT 2840-2770 which will be revised with time to 2960-3000 once 3254 is crossed comfortably
We said ‘Technically the trend is still intact UP with no signs of weakness as yet; we now head into the financial year-end on 31st March. The next technical targets in the days to come are 10201 and the extended technical targets at 10708, where profits bookings can be anticipated’
The market unfolded as expected moving up and achieving our target of 10201 and proceeding towards our extended technical target of 10708 with force.
Technically the trend is still intact up and our target of 10708 stands valid and if the momentum continues then I would not be surprised if the market proceeds up towards the next technical target of 11295 in the days to come
The supports are at 10125 and resistance to the up move is at 10708-11295
The supports on the way down are at 3090 and resistances on the way up are at 3451-3527
From a trading point of view I would stay long with close trailing stops to protect profits
MARKET SUMMARY
Key benchmark indices climbed to close at its best in five months on the back of strong global cues. Index jumped in the opening trade, led by heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC, L&T and ONGC leading from the front, after positive U.S. data boosted optimism the global economy had turned a corner. Investors are also expecting
that G-20 meet help the major global economies to revive from the global recession. Index has further gained ground on the back of all round buying witnessed in the scrips across the sectors due to strong opening in the European market and US index future. Inflation rose slightly in the third week of March as against expectations of further
decline, halting its slide towards sub-zero levels. Sensex today crossed the psychological 10,000 mark and Nifty index closed above the 3,200 mark. Finally, the Sensex surged 446 points to close at 10,349 and the Nifty surged 150 points at 3,211.
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 4.59%, NIFTY FUT up 3.14% last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 32 Stock FUTS closed positive, 9 Stock FUTs closed negative and 9 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
3) OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is up 50.11% prices up 37.55%, NIFTY 3300 CE is up 161.40% prices up 38.63% and NIFTY 3400 CE is up 191.76% prices up 36.25% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is 31.11 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3000 PE is up 70.02% prices down 44.38%, NIFTY 3100 PE is up 104.10% prices down 40.47% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 3000 PE is 63.36 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of APR series CALLs is up by 32.29 LK to 1.98 CR. APR series PUTs is up by 1.01 CR to 4.26 CR last week. APR series PCR (OI) at 2.14. Total OI of APR series PUTs (single series) at 4.26 CR, higher than total OI of NIFTY FUT (all series) 3.98 CR.
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Volatile
Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 4.59%, NIFTY FUT up 3.14% last week. OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is up 50.11% prices up 37.55%, NIFTY 3300 CE is up 161.40% prices up 38.63%, NIFTY 3400 CE is up 191.76% prices up 36.25% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3000 PE is up 70.02% prices down 44.38%, NIFTY 3100 PE is up 104.10% prices down 40.47% last week showing put writing.
We expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move then profit booking expected at higher levels. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 3330-40 levels, strong resistance at 3380-90 levels. On down side, NIFTY SPOT support at 3130-40,3090-3100, strong Support at 3020-30 levels.
SECTOR WATCH
REFINERY
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of CHENNPETRO FUT up 36.43% prices up 12.21%, MRPL FUT up 51.02% prices up 3.02%, RPL FUT up 1.80% prices up 8.03% last week.
Refinery counters showing long positions build up. We expect positive move in coming week.
Conclusion :-
I expect NIFTY SPOT will show up move followed by profit booking at higher levels next week. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 3330-40 levels above 3350 levels, strong Resistance at 3380-90 levels. I expect profit booking near these levels. Sudden unwinding of longs not ruled out which will some time result in sharp INTRADAY fall. On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support at 3170-80, 3130-40, 3090-3100 levels, below 3080 levels, Strong support at 3020-30 levels.
Weekly Trend (06-04-2009 to 09-04-2009) Volatile and Mix
2795 / 2860 / 2900 / 3025 / 3040 / 3125 [ NIFTY : 3211.05 ] 3290 / 3305 / 3365 / 3390 / 3405 / 3495
9310 / 9565 / 9710-35 / 9935 / 10135 [SENSEX : 10348.83] 10475 / 10645-85 / 10890 / 10970 / 11100
2845 / 2955 / 3035 / 3135 / 3170 [NIFTY FUT : 3222.6] 3290 / 3330 / 3380 / 3430
3600 / 3825 / 4015 / 4140 / 4255 [BANK NIFTY : 4423.85 ] 4670 / 4760 / 4835 / 4910
So much debate is going on about this rally that we have had for past two / three weeks or so – I do not know whether it is warranted or no – I will not be able to answer this question to anyone’s satisfaction and I am sure neither will anyone else will be. I believe that the markets are ruled by some principles that are not perfect – but still maintains in those parameters. The First is that there is some relationship to the technicals and very often so we see supports/resistances and the markets behaving themselves. If not so then the markets are moving on some fundamentals – the ones that are presently in vogue or with a degree of projected fundamentals. Once again the markets do respect fundamental and if not immediately – then over a period of time they are playing in the gambit of news that shake or break the fundamentals. The last one is when both technicals and the fundamentals breakdown and do not five any indication and the markets are like wild bulls or bears out on a rampage. This too happens and the philosophy behind such events are when there is desperation in the markets and wild manipulations. After all it is the game being played by some unseen hands – there is news that is and there is news that is created to suite the views of such manipulators. I do dare to say that this rally of past few weeks has been guided by the last of the three reasons that are there. I will not try to see why it really happened but see now the question that now springs to mind – what now? I feel that the markets are overbought from a reasonably long period of time and will sooner than later react to selling pressure. As I had said – we have broken out of the earlier range – it is reasonable that we assume a change in trading range that we have been seeing for past few months. There is a equally strong view point that is not so loud at the moment but says that this is another one of those bear rallies. Take your pick. Now if we were to correct then I have laid before you the Fabonicci levels that are likely to be touched – just one thing – I have not worked these levels on figures but by drawing them on charts so the figures may be plus minus 10/15 odd points here or there. Let us say we were to correct tomorrow then the first level to watch out for will be 38.2% retracement that stands at 2971 on nifty – the next should be 50% retracement that stands at 2893 and finally 61.8% retracement that is at 2819 on nifty. I believe the rate at which we have rallied should make us see the 50% and may be 61.8% retracements at 2893 and 2819 respectively soon. If however we continue to go up then it is anybody’s guess as the figures will change again and I will try to keep you posted.
The global cues seems to be positive on account of the G20 summit that is being praised by many as a step in the right direction. The problem with such summits are that many a times when we see the nations coming down to brass-tacks and implementing the same – it either takes a lot of time or never comes about. Another thing that comes to mind is that the data that is coming out of US is still not encouraging at all. All t he same the Asia was about flat with some positive cues – Nikkei closing 0.34% in green and Hang Seng closing 0.16% in green and Strait times closing 0.97% up. The markets in Asia traded otherwise in green with one odd dip to the red. Europe was apprehensive of the rally going forward so closed mixed with FTSE down 2.31%, Dax up 0.07% and CAC down 1.11%. The US started the session with a doubt and then ended finally in green doubtlessly. Dow closed up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 1.2% and S&P up 0.97%.
The candles saw another big white candle and has touched the upper Bollinger band again – it has not violated the upper Bollinger band this time however. We are way above the 100 EMA and that should now give us support on our way down – if it does not turn out to be a free fall. Volumes were 150% of last 50 day average. Both the FII and DII had bought net 691 Cr and 254 Cr worth on the markets and that would be one reason – for the volumes. The MACD is bullish and the divergence is good. The RSI is in the overbought state so even if someone tell you to buy golden stocks – tread with caution. Slow stochastic has turned bullish and has come out of the overbought zone. (iCharts and my other software are in conflict as far as the Slow Stochastic are concerned so take what I say seeing iCharts with a pinch of salt – the software says that Slow Stochastic is overbought) The ADX has turned bullish again – so here it is all for you.
Seeing the options data there seems to be no call build up – only increase in the puts. Please do take a look at the options pain.
Let us see the pivot data: -
R3 3395
R2 3333
R1 3272
Pivot 3166
S1 3105
S2 2999
S3 2938
Projected High Range 3219 to 3303
Projected Low Range 3153 to 3069
Fib Projected High 3273
Fib Projected Low 3015
On 03/04/2009 MCX Crude has given candle long legged doji, with close of 2636. The long legged doji candle is the sign of indecision between the bulls and the bears, that has come after a big bullish candle. In the Daily chart MCX Crude made a double bottom at 1636 on 13/02/2009. From then on MCX Crude rallied breaking out of the descending triangle on 26/02/2009 with a big bullish candle. The Current rally in MCX Crude reached high of 2752 on 26/03/2009. MCX Crude is facing resistance at 2752 which is an old resistance and 2 month high, which MCX Crude needs to overcome and make new high. New longs should take position only on breaking of 2752 on the upside.
Volume
Since January 2009 the volumes on double bottom have been of accumulation. And on rally from February 2009 the volumes have been rising. The resistance of 2752 must be crossed on good volumes if this rally is to sustain. "Longs should keep an eye on volumes, volumes must expand with the rise in MCX Crude Prices". Unless MCX Crude crosses the resistance of 2752 with a good volume bulls/longs should careful.
Retracement
From the high of 6333 dt.15/07/2008-to low of 1626 dt.15/01/2009 a retracement indicated is 0.382-3429, 0.500-3984, 0.618-4540.
Momentum indicator KST
Currently KST Indicator has given bearish crossover in overbought zone, but till it is in overbought zone longs should look forward with a stop loss. Previously The KST Indicator had been in the oversold zone all of year 2008, which was bearish for MCX Crude. At the end of February 2009 KST Indicator gave breakout on the upside to over bought zone, thus aiding the bulls to take the price of MCX Crude above 2100. As long as KST Indicator is in the overbought zone and making high or peak with every high or peak in the price of MCX Crude, bulls have a hope.
Moving Averages
From the MCX Crude gave a dream run by crossing all the moving average 13ema,34ema,50 sma & 100sma in quick sucession thus reaching the crucial resistance zone of 2752.Next upward target for MCX Crude is crossing 200sma.
MCX Crude Weekly Chart Till 03/04/2009
The weekly MCX Crude may face resistance at the horizontal uptrend line 1 which is at 2829. The weekly Candle gave a close at 2636. The weekly candle is almost a Grave stone Doji. For the comfort of bulls MCX Crude must remain above 2650 .
Momentum indicator KST
The momentum Indicator KST has given bullish crossover in over sold zone. This cross over was indicative of current rally in the MCX Crude till now. But until the KST indicator reaches overbought zone, possibility of full fledged bull run or uptrend in MCX Crude may be remote.
MCX Crude Monthly chart Till 03/04/2009
The MCX Crude Monthly Chart above shows a January 2009 with a Doji candle, followed by a long bullish hammer in February 2009.March 2009 gave way to Bullish belt hold line & if uptrend in MCX Crude persists in April 2009 and closes to new monthly high , then a three white solider bullish candle pattern formation is anticipated in monthly MCX Crude Chart.
The KST Indicator is in the mega oversold zone in monthly MCX Crude Chart.
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