NEWSLETTER

We were bullish on stock specific today even after Nifty opened almost 100 points down and all our calls were on bang on target. Moser, Ispat, Rel Capital, KFA all exploded. We have proven that when the rally starts the CNI calls are bullets which have helped our members to recoup lost gains very quickly. All cash stocks too are doing extremely well. Those who have shown faith have been rewarded. It must be remembered that only CNI was bullish on the market which can be seen from the report CNI has released for its global clients and media officially. The report is available in research report section of www.cniinfoxcahnge.net

which can be seen after free log in.

Today rally of over 600 points was a clear slap from the bulls to bears and a point to note that think 10 times before you make naked shorts. The time has gone where bears had ruled market for a longer time. The long only funds are investing in India and size is at least 3 to 5 bn usd over next 3 months which will happen irrespective of election results. The feeling of left out is clearly visible and the cash held to chest is reentering capital market. HNI’s too are returning back.

At the same the time the bear side traders are still not convinced about the global recovery, Indian recovery, good corporate earnings and FII inflow and stick with their idea of market failing to cross 200 DMA of 3449. Therefore another attempt of rape will happen in couple of days when market crosses 3350 or 3400 to create further panic in those who have gone long and not booked profit and will give boost to short sellers to feel relaxed.

This means there are bright chances that market will correct from 3400 to 3150 which will look like savior blow to traders and long positions. Be cautions from hereon and remain invested only one or max 2 stocks in futures at a time and if possible also have some hedge in short counters. Above 3450 closing again become one sided long with Nifty target of 3700.

This correction even if happens the side stocks and especially B gr stocks which have corrected more than warranted will rise in the same speed. Do not lose sight on them as they offer more money making opportunity.

(Azad)

AEGISCHEM : (77.05)

Buy Above 77 target 1-83, target 2-89, stop loss 75
Sell Below 75 target 1-68, stop loss 77


AXIS BANK : (443.55)

Buy Above 445 target 1-462, target 2-486, stop loss 430
Sell Below 430 target 1-418, target 2-412, stop loss 444


BEML : (460.30)

Buy Above 471 target 1-482, target 2-503, stop loss 460
Sell Below 460 target 1-445, target 2-424, stop loss 471


EASUNREYRL : (51.50)

Buy Above 51 target 1-54, target 2-57, stop loss 49


GHCL : (32.95)

Buy Above 33 target 1-35, target 2-39, stop loss 31


GWALCHEM : (52.10)

Buy Above 51 target 1-56, target 2-59, stop loss 48


ICICI BANK : (376.40)

Buy Above 370 target 1-388, target 2-400, stop loss 360
Sell Below 360 target 1-355, target 2-342, stop loss 370





RELCAPITAL : (454.40)

Buy Above 461 target 1-477, target 2-498, stop loss 454
Sell Below 454 target 1-438, target 2-412, stop loss 461


RELIANCE : (1725.15)

Buy Above 1700 target 1-1775, target 2-1825, stop loss 1685
Sell Below 1685 target 1-1640, target 2-1599, stop loss 1700


RELINFRA : (618.20)

Buy Above 607 target 1-629, target 2-639, stop loss 600
Sell Below 600 target 1-578, target 2-547, stop loss 607.



Sensex : (10742.34) Today Sensex face resistance at 10957, if cross 10957 the goes up to 11172 and 11387. Sensex today find support at 10564, if 10564 break then fall up to 10350 and 9957.

Nifty : (3342.95) Today Nifty face resistance at 3418, if cross then goes up to 3493 and 3568.Nifty find support at 3282, if 3282 break then fall up to 3208 and 3073.

Nifty April futures closed (As on 8th April, 09) at 3355.50 ( Rs 12.55 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 14695.82 crores, adds 2753800 shares (7.21%) in open interest pushing the open interest to 40926750 shares.

(Rajandran)

The Baltic Dry Index is a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. It represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts. The Baltic is owned and operated by the member buyers and sellers. The exchange maintains prices on several routes for different cargoes and then publishes its own index, the BDI, as a summary of the entire dry bulk shipping market. This index can be used as an overall economic indicator as it shows where end prices are heading for items that use the raw materials that are shipped in dry bulk.

The BDI is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production, as well as the supply of ships available to move this cargo. Consumer spending and other economic indicators are backward looking, meaning they examine what has already occurred. The BDI offers a real time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand. Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players. The trading is limited only to the member companies, and the only relevant parties securing contracts are those who have actual cargo to move and those who have the ships to move it.

Why Investors Watch the Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator that provides a clear view into the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The fact that the Baltic Dry Index focuses on raw materials is important because demand for raw materials provides a glimpse into the future. Producers buy raw materials when they want to start building more finished goods and infrastructure—like automobiles, heavy machinery, roads, buildings and so on. Producers stop buying raw materials when they have excess inventory and when they stop infrastructure projects.

Typically, demand for commodities and raw goods increases when global economies are growing. For investors, knowing when the global economy is growing is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be increasing. Conversely, demand for commodities and raw goods decreases when global economies are stalling or contracting. For investors, knowing when the global economy is contracting is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be decreasing.

The Baltic Dry Index is also a compelling indicator because it is a simple, real-time indicator that is difficult to manipulate. Some economic indicators—like unemployment rates, inflation indexes and oil prices—can be difficult to interpret because they can be manipulated or influenced by governments, speculators and other key players. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, is difficult to manipulate because it is driven by clear forces of supply and demand.

The supply that affects the Baltic Dry Index is the supply of ships available to move materials around the globe. It is difficult to manipulate or distort this supply because it takes years to build a new ship that could be put into service to increase supply, and it would cost far too much to leave ships empty in an attempt to decrease supply. The demand that affects the Baltic Dry Index is the demand of commodity buyers who need the raw goods for production. It is difficult to manipulate or distort demand because it is calculated solely by those who have placed orders to have raw goods shipped. Nobody is going to pay to book a Capemax cargo ship who isn't actually going to use it.

What caused the crash?

There are two problems:

Producers are stuck with huge inventories. Post the collapse of commodity prices, no one is in hurry to build inventories. Also, with production cuts and factory shut downs, existing inventories have become a huge issue.

Credit Crisis: No one wants to lend in current market environment. As a result, Letters of credit are not getting issued. They are required to load cargoes for departure at ports. One analyst described it pretty well - "If I can't get credit to get iron ore shipped to me today, then I'm not buying iron ore -- and "demand" has dropped"

This is unprecedented and unusual situation and may not last long. The improvement in credit market will help the ships moving again. Hence, keep an eye on BDI index. Movements in the Baltic Index tend to precede movements in global stock markets. (Remember BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.)

What is the current Scenario?

From the BDI 3 year charts as on 9th April 2009 shows that the leading economy indicator dipping at a faster rate from its recent high. But markets are making out breakout and rallying. Jeez Stock Markets are really crazy in this world.

Santy

Today even though market opened with huge gap down (pushed low because of overnight US session low), but traded high all through the day and closed higher at 3342. This clearly indicates buying pressure in every dip opportunity. Nifty is looking to cross the swing target at 3420 before Easter weekend (This Friday). Tomorrow watch opening level and price action in first hours. If not much profit taking is seen, then wait for pullback to go long. Market is expected to erase some gains before trending high. If pullback is seen at 3300 level, then BUY near 3300 with stop loss at 3250 for target at 3400/3420. However, if profit taking and selling volume increases, then could go Short on resistance( But be careful in selling where daily sentiment is very bullish)

MY CHART

Nifty :: Exactly bounce beck from strong support 3150 and move up sharply.. Still mid term momentum up but avoid buying at high.. Nifty enter in strong resistance zone with extreme over bought level.. Nifty move up 30% from bottom (2540), without any correction. Nifty is in corrective up move only and that’s why be careful at every high.. Watch strong resistance 3388/3400 & above it next strong resistance zone 3478 to 3540.... Our strategy for 9^th April up to 2450 sell at high (S.L 3450) buy on deep (S.L 3278).. Resistance for up move at 3088/3400/3410/3450.. Supports at 3278/3229/3210/ 3150/3072/3061..

(SVShah)

Daily Market Outlook: 09 April 2009

It was a highly volatile trading session for the Domestic markets today. As the Asian markets opened strong, the Indian markets started the day on a positive note. But some profit booking at higher levels kept the indices under pressure throughout the trading session. While the indices witnessed a gap up opening, it could not sustain the higher levels and declined in the morning session. Regarding the market movement, after witnessing high volatility, Sensex closed at 10534.87 (Up 186.04 points) and Nifty closed at 3256.620 points). On the sectoral front, with declining financing cost, Consumer Durables and Automobile indices were up 6.20 per cent and 4.27 per cent respectively. Even Capital goods, metals and realty were up with some improvement on the liquidity front. A good amount of euphoria was seen in the Mid-cap and Small-cap, with both indices gaining more than the Sensex.

NIFTY (3342.95)

Resistance : 3390 / 3435 / 3455 / 3495

Support : 3290 / 3275 / 3240 / 3180

SENSEX

Resistance : 10925 / 10975 / 11170

Support : 10525 / 10350 / 9960

NIFTY FUT (3355)

Resistance : 3430 / 3480 / 3505

Support : 3240 / 3220 / 3185 / 3155

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 7.21% with 54% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.

On Thursday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3340,Sl Below 3320,Tgt 3375-3395-3440-3490,

Sustain Below 3300,Sell with Sl Above 3320,Tgt 3285-3240-3215-3140.

Buy SUNTV Above 190

Buy BAJAJHIND Above 60

Buy NTPC Above 195

Buy RELINFRA,Tgt 650/675,Sl 580

Buy SESAGOA Above 110

Buy PNB Above 455,Tgt 465/70,Sl 450

Buy SBIN (1124),Tgt 1135/45/55,Sl Below 1110

Buy CMC Above 365,Tgt 375-385-400,Sl 360

Buy HDFC BANK Above 1045,Tgt 1080-1110-1185,Sl 1030

Buy HEROHONDA Above 1080,Tgt 1105-1130-1185,Sl 1070

Sell HPCL Below 260,Tgt 255-250-237,Sl 265

Sell M&M Below 445,Tgt 435-425-410,SL 455

Sell CHENNPETRO Below 115,Tgt 110-105-95,Sl 120

(STOCKSTAR)

INDEX GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 3333 SL 3211 TARGET 3447/3550
SELL NF BELOW 3333 SL 3447 TARGET 3221/3122
BUY BANK NF ABOVE 4500 SL 4450 TARGET 4550/4600
SELL BANK NF BELOW 4450 SL 4500 TARGET 4400/4350

STOCKS GAME-
BUY ARVIND ABOVE 16 SL 15 TARGET 17/18
BUY EKC ABOVE 140 SL 135 TARGET 145/150
BUY GMRINFRA ABOVE 110 SL 105 TARGET 115/120
BUY HDFC ABOVE 1730 SL 1700 TARGET 1760/1790
BUY LAXMIMACH ABOVE 610 SL 600 TARGET 620/630
BUY NDTV ABOVE 100 SL 95 TARGET 105/110
BUY PATNI ABOVE 145 SL 140 TARGET 150/155
SELL HDFCBANK BELOW 1140 SL 1160 TARGET 1120/1100
SELL M&M BELOW 440 SL 455 TARGET 425/410

NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

The upmove in Sensex is not ready to take a breather and continues to sprint. Although indices do look a little overbought but they can remain so for a long time till we dont see a strong reversal signal on the charts its better to watch the index and concentrate on specific stocks.

The high reached after Octobers is 10945, 200 dma and dema comes closer to 11200-11400. This seems to be a band of high resistance but a sustained closing above 10600 levels would ideally mean a range breakout which should then target 38/50% of the down move from 21k-8k and the bottom would be well in place for a long time to come.

We would look into this situation if Sensex starts going beyond 11k or takes a breather to 10k in a detailed manner.

IN the last 2 weeks our focus has been on specific stocks and we have discussed so many of them and many have overshooted targets. Have been continously mentioning that stock specific moves would be more prominent then index moves. Still the same would continue.

We started discussing small cap/mid cap a day before the moves started happening :) technical bias to the investments helps to time :)

http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/03/smallmid-cap-stocks-for-long-term.html

Stocks to watchout for :

Will make a weekend review on the stocks discussed and their tgts being achieved. HDIL Ind bull real and Rcap speculative ones rocked.

Welspun KS and Zee continuing on good territory.

DCB AND EMCO ROCKING with more almost 40- 50% moves in short term. All the other small caps that were on the list which we were keen on taking exposure have moved up too.

Detailed review in the weekend. Any query on the stocks discussed put it in the chatbox.

Stocks to watchout for :

IDEA

The stock has broken out above 54 expect it to touch 58/64 stop now would be around 52.

NTPC and SUN TV seems to have given a sharp breakout move buy some quantity near to yest close and add on dips to 190 and 180.

MAX India

The stock was discussed some days back as a long term investment and continues to be a good bet in the insurance sector.

In the short term lot of accumulation seen around 100-110 levels if stays above 115 expect it to touch 125/135 zones.

Yet again a small list of surprise movers for 4-8 sessions. Traders with risk apetite can keep track.

Sesa Goa above 110 , Mcdowells above 720.

Guj Nre coke , Balaji Tele, FSL some speculative build up seen and could see momentum in this week.

SMALL CAPS WHICH LOOK INTERESTING ON FIRST LOOK --- Need to read more into the books. If readers tracking please update - noorrock2002@gmail.com. From the last list Patel,elecon,kirl bros zoomed away but we could not take exposure just like dcb emco .

Dishman Pharma

Piramal Glass

Ratnamani Metals

Imp Powers

(raman)

BUY Reliance Capital Stop Loss 439 Target 480

BUY Unitech Stop Loss 35 Target 47

BUY Suzlon Energy Stop Loss 53 Target 68

BUY Dish TV Stop Loss 27 Target 36

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NIFTY(3346)-

Market defied weak global clues and recovered early losses,

with very good volumes. Now before 3520 Nifty does not have

any resistence, though rally is looking over bought. On the down

side support is at 3310,3280 and 3253.Market now has rallied

more than 30% from its 6th march low of 2539,thus all buy trades

must be protected with strict SL.

NDTV(99)-

Support at 97.5 and 94.5.Target 105 and 108.SL90.

DLF(213)-

Target of 217,trading above this 220 and 227.Support at 200

and 194.SL 190.The script can touch 250 in coming days.

GMRINFRA(109)-

This has support at 104 and 100.Target 115 and 120.SL94.

RPL(108)-

Target 115 and 120.Support at 104.5 and 102.SL 98.

CHAMBLFERT(47.4)-

Support 46.5 and 45.5.Target 50 and 55.SL 43.

IFCI(22.95)-

Support at 22 and 21.5.Target 24.5 and 26.SL20

(ALL SL ON CLOSING BASIS)