Wednesday, April 29, 2009

newsletter

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex continues to be very volatile with no convincing moves on either side of 10700 -11400.

The momentum trendline is where its taking the support for last few sessions which if broken ( 10900 ) may open up to 10650-10700 break possibilities. Similarly 11400 on upside opens up to 11900 levels. Ideally one shoudl wait for 2-3 sessions or volume supported move to confirm a breakout.

Wait and watch with a long weekend ahead its better to stay away from positional trades and investors should book partial profits in stocks bought at lower levels to reduce acquisition cost.


Stocks to watchout for :

Lnt did jump to 924 in the morning but could not hold and hit stop later. ONGC close to 830. Others also dint move up. In the last few sessions we did see lot of whipsaws where in stock did breakout but could not sustain but close stops and low volumes strategy might have made it less bad for traders. Even our trades KFA Mundra Lnt, nagar got stopped out but stops were small around 3-5 % and partial booking done at higher levels.

Currently we are seeing some small range breakdowns in stocks but prefer to take no trades tomorrow with the expiry and a long weekend. Strategy should be to conserve gains made in the last 2 months.


Nifty :: After spinning top candle pattern Nifty made an long black candle.. Nifty break an important level 3384 and that’s why short term momentum turns bearish.. May be on settlement day Bulls try to hold strong support zone in between 3301 to 3286.. If it is, we see an interesting flag pattern in coming day’s.. As far as stay above 3286 our strategy for 29th April buy on deep (S.L 3286 hold short if break 3286) Sell at high (S.L 3426).. If Nifty move up change your strategy as sell at high (S.L 3426) Buy on deep.. Momentum once again change for short term if Nifty break 3426 and close above it.. Resistance for up move at 3412/3426/3434/3454/3518.. Supports at 3350/3301/3296/3286/3240/3175..


The Indian market began on weak note and saw selling pressure throughout the session and close with heavy loss .Since nifty had broken are long stoploss 3423 and close below it .For coming session if nifty trade below 3351 it will test 3310-3290 zones .On the other side trading above 3417 it will test 3450-3477 zones .On hourly chart RSI will get support near 40 level presently at 45 level

Hello Friends,

Sensex Daily LOG Chart View 1 :



Sensex Daily LOG Chart View 2 :




SENSEX : (11001.75) Today Sensex face resistance at 11114, if cross 11114 then goes up to 11266 and 11530. Sensex find support at 10850, if 10850 break then fall up to 10697 and 10434.

NIFTY : (3362.35) Today Nifty face resistance at 3398, if cross 3398 then goes up to 3446 and 3530. Nifty find support at 3315, if 3315 break then fall up to 3268 and 3184.

NIFTY APRIL FUTURES (As on 28th April 2009) closed at 3354.95 (Rs 7.40 Discount) with a turnover of Rs 13462.48 crores, sheds 5880300 shares (-24.86%) in open interest bringing down the open interest to 17770400 shares.

Long Side
  1. Buy NIFTY Spot @ 3444 SL=3423 Targets=3454, 3490, 3500, 3518, 3532, 3546,
  2. Buy RELIANCE Spot @ 1778 SL=1767 Targets=1783, 1801, 1806, 1815, 1823, 1830,
  3. Buy SBI Spot @ 1282 SL=1271 Targets=1289, 1308, 1315, 1325, 1333, 1341,
  4. Buy EDUCOMP Spot @ 2539 SL=2500 Targets=2562, 2636, 2659, 2696, 2726, 2756,
  5. Buy ONGC Spot @ 845 SL=840 Targets=847, 855, 857, 861, 864, 867,
  6. Buy ICICIBANK Spot @ 461 SL=455 Targets=465, 475, 479, 484, 488, 493,
  7. Buy RELINFRA Spot @ 707 SL=697 Targets=714, 734, 740, 751, 759, 767,
  8. Buy RELCAPITAL Spot @ 531 SL=522 Targets=536, 553, 558, 566, 573, 580,
  9. Buy DLF Spot @ 242 SL=238 Targets=244, 251, 254, 257, 261, 264,
  10. Buy ABAN Spot @ 426 SL=419 Targets=430, 444, 448, 454, 460, 465,
  11. Buy BHEL Spot @ 1659 SL=1644 Targets=1667, 1693, 1701, 1714, 1725, 1736,
  12. Buy INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1457 SL=1448 Targets=1462, 1477, 1481, 1489, 1495, 1501,
  13. Buy NTPC Spot @ 188 SL=187 Targets=188, 190, 191, 192, 193, 193,
  14. Buy BHARTIARTL Spot @ 741 SL=735 Targets=745, 755, 759, 764, 768, 773,
  15. Buy ITC Spot @ 191 SL=190 Targets=192, 194, 195, 196, 196, 197,
  16. Buy LT Spot @ 911 SL=902 Targets=916, 933, 938, 946, 953, 959,
  17. Buy ABB Spot @ 492 SL=489 Targets=495, 501, 503, 507, 509, 512,
  18. Buy HDFCBANK Spot @ 1112 SL=1102 Targets=1118, 1136, 1142, 1151, 1159, 1167,
  19. Buy TATASTEEL Spot @ 251 SL=247 Targets=254, 261, 263, 267, 270, 273,
  20. Buy MARUTI Spot @ 815 SL=809 Targets=817, 827, 829, 834, 838, 841,
  21. Buy TATAMOTORS Spot @ 246 SL=242 Targets=248, 254, 256, 259, 261, 264,
  22. Buy WIPRO Spot @ 326 SL=323 Targets=328, 332, 334, 336, 339, 341,
  23. Buy BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5156 SL=5104 Targets=5185, 5279, 5308, 5355, 5393, 5431,
Short Side
  1. Sell NIFTY Spot @ 3412 SL=3429 Targets=3398, 3380, 3369, 3334, 3323, 3305, 3291, 3277,
  2. Sell RELIANCE Spot @ 1762 SL=1770 Targets=1754, 1745, 1740, 1722, 1717, 1708, 1701, 1693,
  3. Sell SBI Spot @ 1264 SL=1274 Targets=1256, 1246, 1240, 1220, 1214, 1204, 1196, 1188,
  4. Sell EDUCOMP Spot @ 2472 SL=2504 Targets=2442, 2405, 2382, 2308, 2285, 2248, 2218, 2188,
  5. Sell ONGC Spot @ 838 SL=842 Targets=835, 831, 829, 821, 819, 815, 812, 809,
  6. Sell ICICIBANK Spot @ 452 SL=456 Targets=447, 442, 438, 428, 424, 419, 415, 410,
  7. Sell RELINFRA Spot @ 689 SL=698 Targets=681, 670, 664, 644, 638, 627, 619, 611,
  8. Sell RELCAPITAL Spot @ 516 SL=523 Targets=510, 501, 496, 479, 474, 466, 459, 453,
  9. Sell DLF Spot @ 235 SL=238 Targets=232, 228, 226, 218, 216, 212, 209, 206,
  10. Sell ABAN Spot @ 415 SL=420 Targets=409, 403, 399, 385, 381, 375, 370, 364,
  11. Sell BHEL Spot @ 1635 SL=1647 Targets=1624, 1611, 1603, 1577, 1569, 1556, 1545, 1534,
  12. Sell INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1444 SL=1451 Targets=1438, 1430, 1425, 1411, 1406, 1398, 1392, 1386,
  13. Sell NTPC Spot @ 186 SL=187 Targets=185, 185, 184, 182, 181, 181, 180, 179,
  14. Sell BHARTIARTL Spot @ 731 SL=736 Targets=727, 722, 718, 708, 704, 699, 695, 690,
  15. Sell ITC Spot @ 189 SL=190 Targets=188, 187, 187, 185, 184, 183, 182, 181,
  16. Sell LT Spot @ 896 SL=904 Targets=890, 882, 876, 860, 855, 847, 840, 833,
  17. Sell ABB Spot @ 486 SL=490 Targets=484, 480, 478, 472, 469, 466, 463, 461,
  18. Sell HDFCBANK Spot @ 1095 SL=1104 Targets=1087, 1078, 1072, 1054, 1048, 1039, 1031, 1023,
  19. Sell TATASTEEL Spot @ 245 SL=248 Targets=242, 238, 236, 228, 226, 222, 219, 216,
  20. Sell MARUTI Spot @ 806 SL=811 Targets=803, 798, 795, 786, 783, 778, 775, 771,
  21. Sell TATAMOTORS Spot @ 240 SL=243 Targets=238, 235, 233, 226, 224, 221, 219, 216,
  22. Sell WIPRO Spot @ 322 SL=324 Targets=319, 317, 315, 311, 309, 307, 305, 302,
  23. Sell BANKNIFTY Spot @ 5071 SL=5113 Targets=5033, 4986, 4956, 4862, 4833, 4786, 4748, 4710,
5 DSMA OF VIX IS 51 SO NO POSITIONAL TRADES.

Nifty finally caved into the weakening TA with some -ve div, a potential double top, consistently weak world cues and a major channel break coupled with 2 day swing reversal & closing below short term averages.

During the earlier fall from 3510, 3295-3310 gave multiple supports.
Now the 20 DMA has moved up to that range. So we might pause around that level again.

Market has shown resistances at 3420 & 3440...and now towards supports.
With daily having turned down, it is unwinding as well as sell on bounces till a reversal signs emerge...





nse-nifty-for-29thapril

Well, as anticipated Nifty traded lower all day through meeting Sell order target from 3470 to 3400. But it again found resistance near 3400 and closed at 3360. Nearest support is seen at 3330/3300 area. Tomorrow market is expected not to test this support level, rather could move higher after making small intraday lows near 3350/3340 level. So watch the opening level, if nifty finds support near 3350/3340 level ( look for patterns, HH/HL, triangle, channel in small time frame), then BUY above 3350 with stop loss below 3315 for target at 3420/3440. However, if nifty tests 3330/3320 level and gets resistance, then BUY signal voids and wait for next opportunity to go LONG or SHORT.



Result : CANARABANK / DABUR / TITAN / PATNI / ALSTOM / APOLLOTYRES / KECINTL / BOI / BHARTSHIP / CEAT




NIFTY (3362.35)

Resistance : 3405 / 3430 / 3455 / 3500

Support : 3310 / 3270 / 3220


SENSEX

Resistance : 11200 / 11260 / 11520

Support : 10850 / 10740 / 10700 / 10500


NIFTY FUT (3355)

Resistance : 3425 / 3455 / 3495 / 3515

Support : 3315 / 3295 / 3270 / 3235




MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) marginal down with increasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions in current series plus forming of short positions in next series.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile due to expiry.




On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 3370,Sl Abv 3390,Tgt 3340/3320/3275/3260,

Sustain Above 3390,Buy with Sl Below 3370,Tgt 3435/3455/3495/3515.




Sell BOMBAYDYIENG Below 170,Tgt 160/55/50,Sl 175

Sell SBI (1236),Tgt 1230/20/10,Sl Above 1250


Sell JETAIRWAYS Below 190,Tgt 185/80,Sl 195

Sell ASIANPNT Below 875,Tgt 865/55/30,Sl 890

Sell BOB Below 305,Tgt 295/80/50,Sl 315

Sell BHARTI Below 725,Tgt 705/690/670+,Sl 735



Buy BIOCON Above 145,Tgt 155/65/80,Sl 140

Buy COLGATE Above 480,Tgt 495/510/40,Sl 465

Buy GAIL Above 250,Tgt 255/60/65,Sl 245

Buy INFOSYS Above 1465/70




FUTURES


Buy BIRLACORP 196/97,Sl 195,Tgt 198.7/99.5/200.4/202.3/204.4/206/208/210/212 (Lot Size : 3400)



Sell HDFCBANK 1085/95,Sl 1110,Tgt 1075/70/1065/1055/1045/1035+ (Lot Size : 400)

Sell BHARTI (725.7) 735,Sl 745,Tgt 720/15/05++

Sell RIL 1750/60,Sl 1780,Tgt 1730/20/05 (If Close Below 1720,Hold Shorts With Sl 1750/60)








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