newsletter

(Azad)

RELIANCE : (1715.40)

Buy Above 1722 target 1-1751, target 2-1786, stop loss 1700
Sell Below 1700 target 1-1684, target 2-1653, target 3-1600, stop loss 1722

REL CAPITAL : (523.65)

Buy Above 532 target 1-548, target 2-570, stop loss 505
Sell Below 505 target 1-487, target 2-460, stop loss 532

REL INFRA : (696)

Buy Above 692 target 1-718, target 2-740, stop loss 678
Sell Below 678 target 1-666, target 2-640, target 3-629, stop loss 692

HPCL : (267.75)

Buy Above 270 target 1-275, target 2-280, target 3-306, stop loss 257

AXIS BANK : (509.85)

Buy Above 515 target 1-527, target 2-546, stop loss 505
Sell Below 505 target 1-495, target 2-471, target 3-444, stop loss 515

BPCL : (387.30)

Buy Above 388 target 1-399, target 2-406, target 3-422, stop loss 380

ICICI BANK : (426.65)

Buy Above 437 target 1-448, target 2-468, stop loss 414
Sell Below 414 target 1-398, target 2-388, stop loss 427

IFCI : (24.45)

Buy Above 24 target 1-26, target 2-29, stop loss 21

OFSS : (843.15)

Buy Above 853 target 1-877, target 2-910, stop loss 840
Sell Below 840 target 1-815, target 2-794, stop loss 853

TATA STEEL : (262.65)

Buy Above 263 target 1-269, target 2-275, stop loss 256
Sell Below 256 target 1-249, target 2-233, stop loss 263

SENSEX : (10979.50) Today Sensex face resistance at 11018, if cross 11018 then goes up to 11173 and 11367. Sensex find support at 10824, if 10824 break then fall up to 10668 and 10475.

NIFTY : (3377.10) Today Nifty face resistance at 3386, if cross 3386 then goes up to 3433 and 3490. Nifty find support at 3329, if 3329 break then fall up to 3281 and 3234.

Nifty April Futures (As on 20th April 2009) closed at 3370.70 (Rs 6.40 Discount) with a turnover of Rs 14036.03 crores, sheds 2994100 shares (-7.31%) in open interest bringing down the open interest to 37949050 shares.
(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on green note and saw profit booking at higher level .For coming session Nifty had broken “M” pattern on intraday base but close above trend line . If nifty trade below3313 it will test 3293-3240 zones .On the other side 3440-3472 will act as resistances zone

(*M J Akhtar*)

Long Side

• Buy Nifty Spot @ 3417 SL=3399 Targets=3426, 3456, 3465, 3480, 3492, 3504,
• Buy Reliance Spot @ 1739 SL=1728 Targets=1745, 1764, 1770, 1780, 1788, 1796,
• Buy SBI Spot @ 1326 SL=1315 Targets=1332, 1352, 1358, 1368, 1375, 1383,
  
• Buy EDUCOMP Spot @ 2370 SL=2331 Targets=2393, 2467, 2490, 2527, 2557, 2587,
  
• Buy ONGC Spot @ 869 SL=865 Targets=871, 878, 880, 884, 887, 889,
  
• Buy ICICIBANK Spot @ 448 SL=443 Targets=451, 461, 464, 468, 472, 476,
  
• Buy RELINFRA Spot @ 701 SL=693 Targets=705, 720, 724, 732, 738, 743,
  
• Buy RELCAPITAL Spot @ 543 SL=537 Targets=547, 559, 563, 569, 574, 579,
  
• Buy DLF Spot @ 236 SL=234 Targets=238, 242, 244, 246, 248, 250,
  
• Buy ABAN Spot @ 489 SL=485 Targets=491, 497, 499, 502, 505, 507,
  
• Buy BHEL Spot @ 1670 SL=1660 Targets=1676, 1694, 1700, 1709, 1716, 1723,
• Buy INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1401 SL=1395 Targets=1405, 1415, 1419, 1424, 1429, 1433,
  
• Buy NTPC Spot @ 193 SL=191 Targets=194, 196, 197, 199, 200, 201,
  
• Buy BHARTIARTL Spot @ 689 SL=684 Targets=691, 700, 702, 707, 710, 714,
  
• Buy ITC Spot @ 188 SL=187 Targets=189, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195,
  
• Buy LT Spot @ 891 SL=885 Targets=894, 904, 907, 912, 916, 920,
  
• Buy ABB Spot @ 548 SL=540 Targets=553, 567, 572, 579, 586, 592,
  

Short Side

• Sell Nifty Spot @ 3390 SL=3405 Targets=3378, 3363, 3354, 3325, 3315, 3301, 3289, 3277,
  
• Sell Reliance Spot @ 1722 SL=1731 Targets=1714, 1704, 1698, 1679, 1673, 1663, 1655, 1647,
  
• Sell SBI Spot @ 1309 SL=1318 Targets=1301, 1291, 1285, 1265, 1259, 1250, 1242, 1234,
  
• Sell EDUCOMP Spot @ 2303 SL=2335 Targets=2273, 2236, 2214, 2140, 2117, 2080, 2050, 2020,
  
• Sell ONGC Spot @ 863 SL=866 Targets=860, 856, 854, 847, 845, 841, 839, 836,
  
• Sell ICICIBANK Spot @ 440 SL=444 Targets=436, 431, 428, 419, 416, 411, 407, 403,
  
• Sell RELINFRA Spot @ 687 SL=694 Targets=681, 674, 670, 655, 650, 643, 637, 631,
  
• Sell RELCAPITAL Spot @ 532 SL=538 Targets=527, 521, 517, 505, 501, 495, 490, 485,
  
• Sell DLF Spot @ 232 SL=234 Targets=230, 228, 226, 222, 220, 218, 216, 214,
  
• Sell ABAN Spot @ 483 SL=486 Targets=481, 478, 476, 470, 468, 465, 462, 460,
  
• Sell BHEL Spot @ 1654 SL=1663 Targets=1647, 1638, 1632, 1614, 1608, 1599, 1592, 1585,
• Sell INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1392 SL=1397 Targets=1387, 1382, 1378, 1368, 1364, 1359, 1355, 1350,
  
• Sell NTPC Spot @ 190 SL=191 Targets=189, 188, 187, 184, 183, 181, 180, 179,
  
• Sell BHARTIARTL Spot @ 681 SL=685 Targets=677, 673, 671, 662, 659, 655, 652, 648,
  
• Sell ITC Spot @ 186 SL=187 Targets=185, 184, 183, 181, 180, 179, 178, 177,
  
• Sell LT Spot @ 882 SL=887 Targets=878, 873, 870, 860, 857, 852, 848, 844,
  
• Sell ABB Spot @ 535 SL=541 Targets=528, 521, 516, 502, 497, 490, 484, 477,

(Ilango)

With world markets having started a big gap down fall suggesting a correction to the entire rise from the March lows,the likely retracements work out to:
23.6% - 3281
38.0% - 3142
50.0% - 3025
61.8% - 2910

This retracement will happen in two phases with a rally inbetween. A most likely one is to take a support at 20SMA first(3150-3175) and a rally & then a fall towards 50 SMA(2970-3025).

Trade accordingly.



(Ilango)

Series of lower tops indicating profit booking/ selling at higher levels.
Lows in the range of 3300 - 3350 has been holding well so far in the last many days.
If this is a 4th wave, then a reversal from 3300 will make new highs..Incase of a fall, 10 DMA at 3325-3350 might offer support.
A Fall below 3350 may lead to 3285-3250.
Hourly high ema gave the loss of momentum few days ago and the same has reflected in the daily high ema. The low emas have been giving reasonable supports so far. Though Nifty has closed below 5 DMA for the past 3 days, it has managed to close above 5 EMA all these days.
If Nifty holds 3300 and moves past 3410/3425 levels, it may get higher.
Individual stocks are finding volume based buying after some corrections suggesting the past few days moves as "Corrections".Use the world cues to your advantage and play by our market's technicals.
Positive divergence during the afternoon fall resulted in a strong bounce.The corrections can continue for more days if the sloping topline is not broken on the upside.(3470)

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our weekly Elliott wave post Nifty move down as primary double zigzag last leg y of b.. This b leg target in between 3375 to 3150 .. Nifty already in target zone.. Nifty made once again an spinning top candle patter today.. Now watch very imp support level in between 3319 to 3302, Below it next strong support zone at 3245/3238.. As far as stay below 3392 momentum down and that’s why on 21^st April our strategy below 3392 Sell at high (S.L 4447) Buy on deep (S.L 3245/3238) .. Resistance for up move at 3392/ 3400/3447.. Supports at 3319/3307/3302/3245/3238/3173/3140..

Strong Resistance of 3518 is for Nifty Spot & it went to near this level for 2 times but did not cross, so when market do not give the closing above this level till then its hope that range bound between the level of 3518 to 3350. Support level of 3282 is also very important for the Nifty Spot, so after break this if Nifty go to close, it means again short position is increasing in the market. When you search trading opportunity, please keep these levels (3518 & 3282) in your mind.

The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.

For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.

The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.

The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.

Use it learn & Learn to make money and convey the same to others.

The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.

For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.

The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.

The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.

Use it learn & Learn to make money and convey the same to others.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart HighLighted Till 17/04/2009

Now for further gains above 11400-11500 may take the rally to new levels in overall bull scenario for the BSE Sensex.
The Steep ascending or uptrend channel on BSE Sensex is still intact. This fastest rally has covered an almost 3200 points from low of 8160 on 09/03/2009 to high of 11367 on 17/04/2009. In the period of 30/3/2009 -17/04/2009 many simple & runaway-gaps up have also been identified in the uptrend channel. The rally which started with a piercing line bottom trend reversal candle pattern on 30/03/2009, has now been slowed down with another powerful top trend reversal candle pattern called "Dark Cloud Cover". This Dark Cloud Cover Candle pattern is top reversal powerful candle pattern.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 17/04/2009

BSE Sensex has sucessfully broken out of Descending Channel thus affirming short term bullishness.
On monday longs should be careful and shorts also should be careful, since the BSE Sensex is still in the uptrend channel. As long as uptrend channel is intact the old longs are safe. On weakness at higher levels, then lower side of the steep uptrend channel (10500-10700) may offer a good support level for fresh longs.
Short should only venture if the uptrend channel breaks-out or ruptures on downside with a volume.With strict stop loss.

Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2008, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was seen in the daily chart. Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms. Again the 9700 is a pivot point & intermediate weekly support/resistance convergence area.

Sideways struture has mix of both (Higher Tops-Higher Bottoms, Lower tops-Lower bottoms). The range between 10200-10700 is good support zone for BSE Sensex on reaction to downside.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator is in overbought zone.As long as KST Indicator remains in overbought zone bulls can be comfortable.
Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."

Volume
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 are descent, they look more of accumulation . But accumulation can be authenticated on the descent rally. On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen. The March 2009 rally now seems to authenticate the volume accumulation since November 2008. In April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which is good indicator that the this rally is a powerful one.

Trendline
Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossovered the descending channel on the upside.

Retracement
Since the fall from high of 21237...January 2008,the retracements of 32%-13097, the 50%-10597 & 61.8% -8096 levels.
BSE Sensex on 6/03/2009 made a low of 8047, thus covering 61.8% of the total fall and on 08/04/2009 crossed 10597 ,thus covering 50% retracement of total fall.

Moving Averages
In the daily chart of BSE Sensex the last week all moving average from 13ema, 34ema, 50sma & 100sma were successfully crossed. Even 200dma has been crossed by BSE Sensex in daily chart. For further authenication BSE Sensex should atleast consistently be above 200dma for a week, then the possibility of market may said to have bottomed out.

Sensex Key Support Level-- --- 10492, 10523, 10673.

Sensex Key Resistance Level--- 10998, 11211, 11367.

BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 17/04/2009

Currently in Weekly BSE Sensex Chart,the BSE Sensex has entered the weekly descending Channel and has touched the upside of the Weekly descending channel.If it breaks out of the Weekly Descending channel then, symmetrical triangle target may be achievable.
So currently 11400-11500 is very crucial level for the BSe Sensex & breakout above the Weekly descending channel.

Old Overview of BSE Sensex Weekly Chart.
In the Above Sensex Weekly Chart from the high in January 2008, BSE Sensex has been trading in Weekly Descending channel. In October 2008 sensex broke out of descending channel signalling exhaustion and since then has been trading side ways below the descending Channel. This sideways trading has given to formation of symmetrical triangle.The symmetrical triangle often referred to as side-ways or consolidation pattern. It means before embarking upon any trend, it is breather period.The last week it was indicated that we will revisit the Symmetrical Triangle once again. Since Late february 2009-insert- bseseb 08/03/2009- it was indicative that BSE Sensex may give a down fall. Hence bearish scenario was taken into account.
Symmetrical triangle though are a continuation pattern usually. But sometimes Triangles may act as a reversal pattern also. As it is Triangles are one of the most trickiest patterns. Hence we revisit the pattern in BSE Sensex Weekly and have a re-look at our targets.
This weekly Triangle has given breakout downward at 9250. So now we will consider 9250 for calculations purpose.

The calculations now stand as follows:

The base of the triangle is (High 11870-Low 7700) = 4170.

Upward target after Breakout will be (9250+4170) = 13420.
Again this target of 13420 can be said to be achievable provided the uptrend line of the descending channel is crossed by the BSE Sensex on the upside which is 11400-11500 currently.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST though in the oversold zone but have given bullish cross over and is going up to zeroline. Which means that the upward momentum is ganing strength. Hence an extended upmove is seen in the weekly BSE Sensex Chart.
But still the intermediate tone can still said to be bearish in the BSE Sensex. Unless KST indicator gives breakout on the upside in the overbought zone, intermediate bullishness cannot be affirmed.

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 17/04/2009

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart.April 2009
The January 2009 and February 2009 Candle pattern was Bullish Engulfing Pattern.Which was left out in hindsight.The March monthly Candle was bullish belt hold line candle pattern.In the BSE Sensex monthly chart the sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8155 & 50 sma is at 12176 . Also for the purpose of clarity we keep The Dynamic triangle-pattern on the backburner till April 2009 candle is taken into consideration.
Unless 11400-11500 area is not crossed by the room for down fall remains.As has been indicated may times in BSE Sensex posts, bottoming out is long, tedious and tricky processes. Finally again as retreated often that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in deep over sold zone. Oscillators have neither given any indication of patterns formation nor any divergence. But possibilty of bullish cross-over of KST Indicator can be anticipated if upmarch of BSE Sensex continues.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Previously i had mentioned that 11200-11400 would be a significant zone of resistance at as 200 dema comes arnd 11200 zones.

As we see from the charts making a parallel channel from last two lows the top comes around the top of the current move.

Also in the last 4 sessions we have got a breather here. But on a simpler basis lows of the last few sessions is important to give a significant reversal sign. Such a level comes to around 10650-10700 below which one can look for short trades for near term.

The levels to watch on down side would be 38/50% correction levels if we break 10650 convincingly or else we may remain in the sideways loop.

Stocks to watchout for:

Power Grid continues to look bullish add more on dips to 95 zone for short term.

ICICI Bank

One of the most volatile banking stocks is ranged between 420-460 for last few sessions. Below 420 may go down to 400-385. Above 460 would be a spike to 490 levels.

HCL Info and Spicejet have seen good volumes in the current move expect a bounce back from 85 and 15.5-16.5 levels to 100 and 20 .

Small Cap Stock for investment -- IFGL refractories looks interesting.Please do ur own research.

RETURNS OF 12% in trading calls for March 2009