Today market opened higher near 3300 and traded lower till late morning, touching low at 3235 and closed at 3256. As we have been discussing from past 4 weeks, overall market still looks very bullish. But since market has gone up very quickly, a small pullback is expected and it is wise to go LONG in a dip pullback. Today even if market opened high but did not able to make new high. This indicates a minor resistance level has been created near 3300 psychological level. Tomorrow selling activities can be seen if overnight US session trade lower (DOW is expected to go low to 7800 level today). So watch the opening level. If market struggles to go higher, then SELL near 3230 with stop loss at 3260 for target at 3160. If more selling pressure persists then target could be extended to 3140.
BSE Sensex Highlighted Daily Chart Till 02/04/2009
A BSE Sensex is in the steep uptrend channel. The week of 30/3/2009 -02/04/2009 has added to new gains in the market. The last bullish candle of 02/04/2009 has come on a gap up in the steep uptrend channel. On Monday 06/04/2009 BSE Sensex may try to touch the upside of the steep uptrend channel around 10500-10700. This was fast rally within the steep uptrend channel has covered an almost 2300 points from low of 8160 on 09/03/2009 to high of 10432 on 02/04/2009.
As anticipated from Friday 06/03/2009, when piercing line trend reversal candle pattern was identified. From then on their was no looking back, with the market rallying above 10,000. The Candle of Thursday 02/04/2009 is gap up bullish candle. "If steam is left in this current rally then ,it might go above 10050." has come true.....
Now in the current week from 30/03/2009 the real fireworks can be anticipated in BSE Sensex . The bulls and bears tussle will reach it,s frenzy , since breakout has lead to furious change in picket fending by both bulls & bears. "Bulls may make an attempt to push the market further and bears will hammer them. Till 9700 is sustained ,bulls will have upper hand." has also come true..
BSE Sensex is above descending channel ( seen since January 2008), after breaking out of descending channel on the upside on 16/03/2009. Steep trend Channels often get ruptured very early time wise and price-wise. If the weakness persists on higher levels, then lower side of the steep uptrend channel may offer a good support level.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 02/04/2009
Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2008, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was seen in the daily chart. Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms. 9700 is a pivot point & intermediate weekly support/resistance convergence area. Sideways structure has mix of both (Higher Tops-Higher Bottoms, Lower tops - Lower bottoms). The area of 7700-10700 is a big sideways zone for BSE Sensex.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator has crossed Zero line/Median line and reached above overbought zone. For the comfort of bulls KST Indicator must remain in overbought zone..
Note:"The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south- oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."
Volume
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 are descent, they look more of accumulation. But accumulation can be authenticated on the descent rally. On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen. The March 2009 rally now seems to authenticate the volume accumulation since November 2008.
Sensex Key Support Level-- --- 10050, 10253, 10378.
Sensex Key Resistance Level--- 10492, 105022,10702.
BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 02/04/2009
The symmetrical Triangle will be revisited next week with further clarity in the weekly outlook of BSE Sensex.
The Weekly KST indicator is moving up north towards the Zero line/median line as the gains/rally in BSe Sensex is underway.
BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 02/04/2009
As retreated time and again that bull market or bull trend cannot said to be over for long term till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken.
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart all the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators are in over sold zone.Oscillators are not given any indication of by forming any patterns or divergence.
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