Thursday, April 23, 2009

news

The Indian market opened on firm note but saw selling pressure at higher levels close with red zone. For coming session nifty is moving downward channel if nifty trade above 3390 one can go long .Hence on the downside if nifty trade below 3303 on closing basis one can short lower side target 3263-3240zone .On upside 3423-3440 zone will act resistances.

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Long Side
  1. Buy NIFTY Spot @ 3377 SL=3358 Targets=3386, 3416, 3426, 3441, 3453, 3465,
  2. Buy RELIANCE Spot @ 1723 SL=1715 Targets=1727, 1739, 1743, 1749, 1754, 1759,
  3. Buy SBI Spot @ 1265 SL=1256 Targets=1270, 1286, 1291, 1299, 1306, 1312,
  4. Buy EDUCOMP Spot @ 2460 SL=2438 Targets=2473, 2512, 2525, 2545, 2561, 2577,
  5. Buy ONGC Spot @ 867 SL=859 Targets=872, 886, 890, 898, 903, 909,
  6. Buy ICICIBANK Spot @ 408 SL=404 Targets=410, 416, 418, 422, 424, 427,
  7. Buy RELINFRA Spot @ 692 SL=685 Targets=696, 708, 712, 718, 723, 728,
  8. Buy RELCAPITAL Spot @ 523 SL=518 Targets=525, 534, 536, 540, 544, 547,
  9. Buy DLF Spot @ 241 SL=237 Targets=243, 249, 251, 254, 257, 259,
  10. Buy ABAN Spot @ 473 SL=468 Targets=476, 486, 489, 494, 498, 502,
  11. Buy BHEL Spot @ 1632 SL=1618 Targets=1640, 1665, 1673, 1685, 1696, 1706,
  12. Buy INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1380 SL=1374 Targets=1383, 1393, 1396, 1400, 1404, 1408,
  13. Buy NTPC Spot @ 188 SL=187 Targets=188, 190, 190, 191, 191, 192,
  14. Buy BHARTIARTL Spot @ 722 SL=717 Targets=725, 735, 737, 742, 746, 750,
  15. Buy ITC Spot @ 191 SL=190 Targets=191, 193, 193, 194, 195, 195,
  16. Buy LT Spot @ 862 SL=853 Targets=866, 882, 886, 894, 900, 907,
  17. Buy ABB Spot @ 533 SL=525 Targets=538, 552, 557, 564, 570, 576,
  18. Buy HDFCBANK Spot @ 1094 SL=1087 Targets=1097, 1108, 1111, 1117, 1121, 1125,
  19. Buy TATASTEEL Spot @ 253 SL=250 Targets=255, 261, 263, 266, 268, 270,
  20. Buy MARUTI Spot @ 808 SL=795 Targets=816, 842, 850, 862, 873, 883,
  21. Buy TATAMOTORS Spot @ 238 SL=236 Targets=239, 243, 244, 245, 247, 248,
Short Side
  1. Sell NIFTY Spot @ 3349 SL=3364 Targets=3337, 3321, 3312, 3282, 3272, 3257, 3245, 3233,
  2. Sell RELIANCE Spot @ 1712 SL=1719 Targets=1707, 1701, 1697, 1685, 1681, 1675, 1670, 1665,
  3. Sell SBI Spot @ 1251 SL=1258 Targets=1244, 1236, 1231, 1215, 1210, 1202, 1196, 1189,
  4. Sell EDUCOMP Spot @ 2424 SL=2443 Targets=2408, 2388, 2376, 2336, 2324, 2304, 2288, 2272,
  5. Sell ONGC Spot @ 855 SL=861 Targets=849, 842, 837, 823, 819, 811, 806, 800,
  6. Sell ICICIBANK Spot @ 402 SL=405 Targets=399, 396, 394, 387, 385, 382, 379, 377,
  7. Sell RELINFRA Spot @ 681 SL=687 Targets=676, 670, 666, 654, 650, 644, 639, 634,
  8. Sell RELCAPITAL Spot @ 515 SL=519 Targets=512, 508, 505, 497, 494, 490, 487, 483,
  9. Sell DLF Spot @ 235 SL=238 Targets=232, 229, 227, 220, 218, 215, 213, 210,
  10. Sell ABAN Spot @ 464 SL=468 Targets=460, 455, 452, 442, 439, 434, 430, 426,
  11. Sell BHEL Spot @ 1609 SL=1621 Targets=1599, 1587, 1579, 1554, 1546, 1534, 1523, 1513,
  12. Sell INFOSYSTCH Spot @ 1372 SL=1377 Targets=1368, 1363, 1360, 1351, 1348, 1343, 1339, 1335,
  13. Sell NTPC Spot @ 187 SL=187 Targets=186, 185, 185, 183, 183, 182, 182, 181,
  14. Sell BHARTIARTL Spot @ 714 SL=718 Targets=710, 706, 703, 693, 690, 686, 682, 678,
  15. Sell ITC Spot @ 189 SL=190 Targets=188, 188, 187, 186, 185, 184, 184, 183,
  16. Sell LT Spot @ 848 SL=855 Targets=841, 834, 829, 814, 809, 801, 795, 789,
  17. Sell ABB Spot @ 519 SL=526 Targets=513, 506, 501, 487, 482, 475, 469, 463,
  18. Sell HDFCBANK Spot @ 1084 SL=1089 Targets=1079, 1074, 1070, 1060, 1056, 1051, 1046, 1042,
  19. Sell TATASTEEL Spot @ 248 SL=250 Targets=245, 242, 240, 234, 232, 229, 227, 225,
  20. Sell MARUTI Spot @ 785 SL=796 Targets=775, 762, 754, 728, 720, 707, 697, 687,
  21. Sell TATAMOTORS Spot @ 235 SL=236 Targets=233, 231, 230, 227, 226, 224, 222, 221,
Yesterday VIX was at 57.88, too high for a positional trade. But in case one wants to initiate a short position; Sell Nifty Spot, SL=3380;Target=3250,3150.

BUY GVK Power & Infrastructure Stop Loss 24 Target 34

BUY Zee Entertainment Enterprises Stop Loss 117 Target 139

BUY Suzlon Energy Stop Loss 54 Target 73

BUY Reliance Capital Stop Loss 485 Target 567

Asian Markets
Asian Markets are trading flat following cues from U.S. markets.

Nikkei Stock Average 225 was down 0.47 pct to 8,686.64.
Hang Seng Index was up 0.50 pct to 14,952.70.
KOSPI Index up 0.25 pct at 1,359.36.
Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.68 pct to 2,444.54.

U.S. Markets
On Wall Street,Stocks closed lower on Wednesday .The Dow Jones industrial average was down 82.99, 1.04 percent, to 7,886.57.The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 6.53, 0.77 percent, to 843.55. The Nasdaq composite index was up 2.27,0.14 percent, to 1,646.12.

Channel break is below 3295. A gap down can target upto 3160.
A close above 3365 is the min. requirement to arrest the downtrend. 2-Day swing reversal is above 3415.
Lower highs and lower lows are continuing.
There is minor positive divergences in the "5-Minute" charts.
There is no secular downtrend and stock specific buying & selling continues with some stocks hitting new highs of this uptrend with good volumes.
Till the weekly trend turns down(Below 3150), look out for some buying opportunities in "corrected stocks" in the coming days.





nifty-23rdaprilToday nifty got resistance during first hours , could not hold the intraday top at 3400 and sold off all day though touching low at 3300. Even though nifty closed above the daily support line, market has been seeing more selling activities from past few days. So, it is better to stay aside and watch the next wave, either UP or Down. Tomorrow watch 3300 level and see if market is still getting support with price action and pattern (”Higher highs/higher lows” or “channel” in small time frame). If this situation happens, then you could go LONG at 3330 with stop loss at 3285 for target at 3390/3400. However, if market goes higher in first hours but gets resistance then could go SHORT near 3375 with stop loss at 3410 for target at 3320/3300.




Nifty :: After an second spinning top candle pattern Nifty move down form high and made an black candle.. Bulls still try to hold 3300 strong support level.. As far as close above 3300 nothing to worry for bulls.. Now 3300 works as strong level for further up or down move.. Once close below 3300 next target of Nifty near 3174/3140.. And if Nifty hold support 3300 and give close above 3400 then momentum once again turn up.. Till then our strategy for 23rd April up to 3404 sell at high (S.L 3404) buy on deep.. Resistance for up move at 3356/3387/3404/3430/3458/3470.. Supports at 3300/3384/ 3238/3200/3173/3140..






This is the Daily chart of Nifty Futures. As seen from it, Nifty fell due to divergence on cci with price. Now we see that Nifty is near the support. Turbo cci has gone down. We have to see whether it hooks in the next 2 days. If it hooks then market would have taken support and we can see an upmove again.


It was a highly volatile day for the Indian equity markets. Both the leading Indices opened in green on account of strong recovery made by the US markets and good opening of Asian markets. But it could not sustain the gains and crumbled in the afternoon session. While Sensex closed at 10817.54 (Up 80.57 points) Nifty closed at 3330.30 (Down 35 points). If we take a look at market movement, it indicates that, rate sensitive sectors like realty and consumer durables had a good run in last few trading sessions. Today these sectors witnessed a good amount of profit booking and declined almost 4 per cent. Markets breadth was negative with 1064 advances and 1443 declines. One important factor in today’s decline is, it has happened with higher volumes, which is a weak sign for the markets.




NIFTY (3330.30)

Resistance : 3365 / 3390 / 3410 / 3450

Support : 3300 / 3285 / 3250 / 3225 / 3160


SENSEX (10818)

Resistance : 10950 / 11000 / 11090

Support : 10675 / 10600 / 10535 / 10450


NIFTY FUTURE (3323)

Resistance : 3385 / 3445

Support : 3275 / 3240 / 3225




MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 8.56% with 5% decreasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile. Selling will emerge on every rise.




On Thursday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 3360,Sl Above 3380,Tgt 3310-3255,

Sustain Above 3380,Buy with Sl Below 3360,Tgt 3415-3470.


Positional Traders : Buy NIFTY@ 3300/20,Sl 3280,Tgt 3350/3400+




Results Tomorrow :

JINDALDRILLING / MMTC / SKFINDIA / HCLINFO / BINANIINDS / BINANICEMENTS / VSTINDS / RIL / HDFCBANK / RELINFRA / IDEA / BAJAJHIND / RPOWER / RNRL / ZEENEWS / RPL / MAHSEAMLESS / LIC




Sell SAIL Below 105,Sl 110

Sell JETAIRWAYS Below 195,Tgt 190/85/80,Sl 200

Sell BOB Below 285,Tgt 280/70/55,Sl 295

Sell CIPLA Below 225,Tgt 220/15/05,Sl 235

Sell GAIL Below 245,Tgt 240/35/25,Sl 255

Sell ABB Below 500,Tgt 495/85/80,Sl 505



Buy COLGATE Above 465,Tgt 470/75/85,Sl 455

Buy UNIONBANK Above 165,Tgt 170/75/80/85,Sl 160

Buy VSNL Above 560,Tgt 575/90/605/15+,Sl 545


Buy ADANIENTERPRISE Above 375

Buy SUZLON Above 60,Tgt 63/65/68/70,Sl 55

Buy LICHSG Above 300/05,Sl 290

Buy WIPRO Above 280/85,Sl 270

Buy PANTALOON Above 185/90

Buy WOCKHARDT Above 100/05,Tgt 110/15/20,Sl 95




FUTURES


Buy ISPATIND (14.55),Tgt 15/15.3/15.5/16,Sl 13.7

Buy RIL (1716) 1700/10,Tgt 1725/35/55,Sl 1680

Buy RPOWER 126/27,Tgt 127.5/128.2/129.4/130.6/132/133/134.4/135+,Sl 120 (Lot Size:2000)

Buy ACC (645.75) 635/40,Tgt 650/55,Sl 625

Buy BHEL (1583) 1560/70,Tgt 1580/90/1600+,Sl 1545



Sell BHEL (1583) 1605/10,Tgt 1580/70/65,Sl 1630

Sell MOSERBAER 63/64,Tgt 62.7/62.4/61.2/60.7/59.9/59.3/58.6/58,Sl 65 (Lot Size:4950)







The Nifty is carrying loads of wait on long side despite of global corrections; it could keep the head above deep waters for a better sailing. The major news that dampened the sentiment is the exclusion list of 50 companies from the FO segment from June-09.

In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster.
The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.

The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
Use it learn & Learn to make money and convey the same to others.




CLICK TO ENLARGE images. Reliance and HDFC Bank


Sensex Technical View :

Some points to note

--- > 11200-11400 200 dema region as well as channel top as shown in the chart.

----> Multiple tops around 11370 zone.

----> Recent bottoms of last few days around 10650-10720 which if broken could lead to follow up selling

--- > Fibonacci retracements come to 10100/9700 for 38/50% which are possible levels if it stays below 10700


So traders need to be cautious and after booking profits in stock specific now need to reduce volumes on long picks as well as keep strict stoplosses and be cautious with a wait and watch policy. Hedge with 3200 puts for longs. Cash is also a good trading position at uncertain times.

Stocks to watchout for :

Power grid hits stop and not able to cross 102, Spicejet also stop hit. HDFC bank chart posted above. Bharti can avoid as index not supporting


Reliance Inds

One of the major contributors in the current rally has retraced back 61% of the last fall and is facing resistance around 1800-1850 zone. Short term supports at 1660-1690 zone if broken then it may head to 1500-1550 levels. The momentum is fading and staying below the trendline indicates that only a move beyond 1800 would negate weak implications

Momentum stocks which can be taken for quick trades if 10650-10700 goes on index.

Reliance Capital below 498 may head to 460. Reliance Infra below 657 may head to 630. Keep stop of 2-3% on initiation of trade.


Some volume buzzers which can see momentum but take care

RUCHI SOYA
WOCKHARDT
Walchandnagar Inds

Above is a daily chart showing you the recent rally from March. The yellow line above is the 200 day moving average and the blue line is the 50 day moving average. The chart below shows 3150 (thick yellow line) the likely target for this down move. Break 3150 and we are going all the way back down to 2500. Yup.






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