Saturday, April 25, 2009

NEWSLETTER

Nifty is trending up with intra running corrections..Reduce longs only on a fall below 3440 or 3405.
The minor -ve div in 5-minute may be due to running correction. A gap up will set it alright.
Shortened settlement week will be packed with action. Trade the direction and start booking out in parts as per your risk profile.
Daily stochastics is moving up halfway, indicating uptrend for a minimum of 2 days. Buy on dips should continue.Hourly low ema @ 3444 will be an aggressive SL for longs.







Today Nifty traded higher all day through after opening near yesterday close at 3430. During first hours of trading, it got proper support at 3420-3440 area and went higher closing at 3480. So yesterday BUY order from 3410 to 3480 target met as described in my previous post( for 24th April). Even though market was up today, but nifty still in a neutral zone, as long as it has not gone above 3510 again(15th April High). For Monday it would be a better idea to stay aside and jump into market only if it gets support above 3510 or resistance below 3450.




WE HAVE SHOWN IN LAST POST ABOUT CCI TURNING UP AND THAT HAPPENED .NOW WATCH 3488 AS MAIN RESISTANCE SUPPORT RANGE 3390-3406.



The IMF wants to sell Gold & the Chinese are buying Gold.
Gold Rises to 3-Week High in London as China Increases Reserves
Doubling of China gold reserves

'''China has added to its gold reserves and now holds 1,054 metric tons of the yellow metal, according to a Friday report by the Xinhua News Agency, which cited comment by Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. ''''

China is shifting away from GSE debt to US Treasury debt (and that too -- US Treasuries of shorter term maturities). Also, China is stocking up on Hard Assets ( stakes in mining assets and mining companies) around the world.

Meanwhile the FED continues to buy long term US Treasuries, in order to keep the cost of borrowing low ( a tactic that I do not believe is sustainable in the long run).


'You have only to find a way to multiply your creditors by the cube and pay them by the square, out of their own money. The fatal weakness of the scheme is that you cannot stop. When new creditors fail to present themselves faster than the old creditors demand to be paid off, the bubble bursts.'
--Garet Garrett

The Chinese are thinking long term, while most western governments are focussed on short term fire fighting!

China's Sovereign Wealth Fund investments in Blackstone and the investment banks have taught them to look past the 'smoke and mirrors' analysis of bankers and focus on a sustainable long term investment plan.


Here are the charts for Crude Oil traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). The 1-1/2 year chart above shows the 200 day average (yellow) and the 50 day average (blue). Currently,prices are just below the resistive trendline (pink) drawn from the July '08 highs.

We zoom in on the middle chart and close in on the recent price action below. Currently in a range of Rs.2460-2760, Crude is seeking support on the lower channel just around the 50 day average.
Edit >>> Yesterday, Crude closed at Rs 2566 which suggests that it will now take a shot on the top of the range.

smile


1. As indicated, SENSEx saw a resistance near Triple Top of 11345 during the early part of the
week and corrected from the said level to a support zone of 10687-10750. Towards the end of
the week however, SENSEx regained the early losses and closed at a highest point of last 6
months.
2. For the next 2 weeks, if SENSEx manages to cross the Double Top level of 11363 (most likely
scenario) the current rally will gain momentum and the minimum target in that case will be
11870 with an upward probability of SENSEx hitting 12564. The zone of 10687-10750 remains
the major support for the SENSEx in the immediate short term and SENSEx has medium term
support near 10171.
GRId BsE
SENSEx
NsE
NIFTy
CNx
100
NIFTy
JUNIOr
CNx
iT
BANk
NIFTy
CNx
500
CMP 11329 3481 3298 5386 2655 5125 2690
200 DAY EMA 11174 3395 3220 5306 2783 5052 2664
200 DAY SMA 11164 3389 3206 5192 2835 4981 2647
TURNINg POINt 11175 3395 3225 5300 2600 5075 2640
RESISTANCe 12565 3731 3789 6137 3029 6040 2985
SUPPORt 10171 3149 2772 4799 2306 4260 2398



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