NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex bounces back sharply from the momentum trendline which was around 10700 and is now in striking distance of the recent highs of 11370.

The flag range is almost 600 points which implies 2-3 sessions above 11350-11400 could lead to a similar move. Possible targets 11650/11900.

Lot many global indices are similarly shaped and some have broken above the March 2nd week high ( similar to Sensex 11370 ). A small breakout move in the week could be witnessed in many global indices.

The only concern is the no of sessions in the flag are less which is a good scenario for a strong trending market but currently we may still be on the pullback move of the entire downfall from 21k-8k. So one needs to be purely short term in nature as markets have already given a sharp move.

Stocks to watchout for :

Grasim shoots up. Adani does tgts. Mundra still good chart posted below. TRIL breakout and GDL a pullback move.

Lot many charts are seeing flag/pennants patterns which if broken could lead to a move similar to the flag size. HDFC Bank , LnT , HDFC Ltd, Reliance Infra and many more in the midcaps. So such a breakout has many options to be traded but keep a strict trading policy of small stops and booking at targets and trailing.

The flag breakout trades have to be very quick and supported with volumes and in some of the cases we might see whipsaws so be nimble footed.

Mundra Port , LnT , Kingfisher Airlines technical chart posted and many more do look similar but have discussed only a few out here.

Technical trackers can check for similar patterns in other stocks namely Orchid Chemicals , JP associates , Sesa Goa, Ashok leyland some fertiliser and sugaar stocks....

MY CHART

Nifty :: As far as stay above 3460 momentum seems up, and hold 3356 nothing to worry for bulls .. For 27^th April watch first resistance 3507 and last high 3512.. Above 3512 momentum once again turns strong.. Our strategy for 27^th April up to 3460 buy on deep (S.L 3400) Sell at high (S.L 3636).. Below 3460 sell at high (S.L 3495) Buy on deep (S.L 3356).. Resistance for up move at 3507/3530/3542/3552/3572/3607/3636.. Supports at 3460/3413/3400/3356..

(Be careful at higher level Nifty heading towards target level and enter in strong resistance zone.. All indicators are in overbought zone. Use this opportunity as profit booking)

(Inder Bhatia)

I had attached four weekly chart out of that three are invert chart for clear direction
and what happen at 2000-2002 how the bear market rally over and this week we had close abovemajor trendline that first n early sign bear are weaking bear market coming to end after 2-3 week we can see correction but that correction will good buying opportunity for bulls and plus we need doubble confirmation from RSI.

(Inder Bhatia)

NiftyDaily Last week market extended the gains by 2.8% in nifty for the seven consecutive week. Last week we had seen bulls and bears are fighting near 200SMA but bulls win the battle and close above 200Days it indicate more upside toward 3640-3793 zones .On daily chart nifty seen pennant breakout that bullish pattern logical target 3750 . For coming session if nifty cross 3514 zone it will test 3583-3643 zone .On the lower side closing below 3423 zone it will test 3383-3353 zone .Market are trading overbought zone on daily chart move stoploss 3290 to 3440 on closing basis

NiftyHourly The Indian market opened on flat note and remained choppy through the first session saw smart buying in afternoon session and close near days high .For coming session if nifty trade above 3513 it will test 3583 and 3630 zones .On the lower-side 3440-3421 zone will act as support zone .For long 3440 levels will stop-loss on closing basis.

BUYABGSHIP ABOVE137.50 TGT 145>157 STOPLOSS 131
BUY CENTURY TEX ABOVE 239 TGT 250>255STOPLOSS 233

BUY SINTEX ABOVE 142 TGT 146>150 STOPLOSS 139

BUY AXIS BANK 532 TGT 545 >561 STOPLOSS 523

BUY ADLABS 238.70 TGT 247>263 STOPLOSS 231

Nifty weekly chart seen breakout and close above major downward sloping line next resistances 3793 and strong support 3240-3173

(AGB)

Nifty spent the last week consolidating giving a hint of its intentions in Friday's trading. The attached chart shows it clearly, the fast averages are once again attempting to crossover signalling the start of another leg up. Despite all this, I continue to be reluctant to dip my toes in the water from the long side as I remain unconvinced that this rally will hold long term steam. On the weekly charts 3640-3650 still remains a formidable target for Nifty and for me it's a place to attempt a short.

















I am also attaching the chart of S&P 500 showing the progress of the Trend Channel that I had tried to anticipate a couple of weeks back. As we can see from the attached chart - prices have already taken resistance once and could approach the outer line of the channel now. As usual, all the best for your trading this week.

(Azad)

RELIANCE : (1788.85)

Buy Above 1785 target 1-1818, target 2-1847, stop loss 1770
Sell Below 1770 target 1-1743, target 2-1697, stop loss 1785

REL CAPITAL : (557.65)

Buy Above 555 target 1-570, target 2-583, stop loss 548
Sell Below 548 target 1-537, target 2-517, stop loss 555

REL INFRA : (740.50)

Buy Above 735 target 1-758, target 2-774, stop loss 730
Sell Below 730 target 1-713, target 2-686, stop loss 735

RANBAXY : (175.90)

Sell Below 171 target 1-165, target 2-152, stop loss 180

ABAN : (485.80)

Buy Above 492 target 1-500, target 2-512, target 3-532, stop loss 478
Sell Below 478 target 1-466, target 2-426, stop loss 492

AXIS BANK : (529.60)

Buy Above 530 target 1-543, target 2-556, target 3-571, stop loss 520
Sell Below 520 target 1-504, target 2-489, stop loss 530

GAIL : (251.55)

Buy Above 251 target 1-259, target 2-285, stop loss 245

ICICI BANK : (434.10)

Sell Below 428 target 1-419, target 2-405, target 3-391, stop loss 441

KS OILS : (48.25)

Buy Above 48 target 1-53, target 2-61, stop loss 45

SYNDIBANK : (56.85)

Buy Above 57 target 1-60, target 2-64, target 3-74, stop loss 52





(SVShah)

NIFTY (3480.75)

Resistance : 3515 / 3550 / 3580

Support : 3455 / 3425 / 3395 / 3360

SENSEX (11329.05) : Sustained Above 11350/450 Levels,Huge Resistances At 12200/12500,If 12200/500 Not Sustained We May Have A Fall Upto 11000/10700 Levels.

Resistance : 11385 / 11440 / 11485 / 11550

Support : 11295 / 11255 / 11200 / 11145 / 10960

NIFTY FUT (3482.05) : Expect Market To Make Resistance At 3560 Levels,Where Selling Pressure May /be Seen (Only Intrday Basis)

Resistance : 3520 / 3535 / 3560 / 3620 / 3650

Support : 3465 / 3425 / 3390 / 3350

BANK NIFTY (5127.5)

Resistance : 5210 / 5290

Support : 5075 / 4990 / 4860

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) marginal down with decreasing volumes indicating short covering plus forming of long positions for BTST.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.Weekly Charts are Strong for more Upmove,After Expiry may see Breakout Above 3745/3780 Levels.

On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3490,Sl Below 3470,Tgt 3505/3525/3545/3570/3595,

Sustain Below 3460,Sell with Sl Above 3480,Tgt 3425/3390/3370/3345.

Positional Traders : Buy NIFTY,Sl 3430,Tgt 3520 / 3550

Results : JPASS / BOB / AREVA / INDIANBANK / ABANOFF / CASTROL / RENUKASUGAR / GEOMETRIC / UNITEDSPRITS

April 27& 28,Markets Can Move Up,excepts Some Minor Intraday Corrections.While On April 29,We May A Fall From The Highs During Opening Bell

Buy INFOSYS Aboce 1465

Buy BAJAJHIND Above 77,Tgt 80/85/85,Sl 75

Buy RPOWER Above 134/35,Tgt 145/50/55+,Sl 125

Buy RELINFRA,Tgt 750/775/800,Sl 715

Buy RCOM Above 205,Tgt 215/20/25,Sl 200 (Positional Sl 190,Tgt 230/40/50+)

Buy SBI (1311),Tgt 1335/50/65/75+,Sl 1290

Buy CANBNK Around 195,Tgt 200/05/10/15,Sl 190

Buy DRREDDY Above 555/60,Tgt 565/70/75,Sl 445

Buy HEROHONDA Above 1150,Tgt 1165/80/1225,Sl 1130

Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 620,Tgt 610/590/560,Sl 635

Sell TATAELEXSI Below 106,Tgt 104/100/95+,Sl 110

Sell TATASTEEL Below 260,Tgt 255/45/30,Sl 270

FUTURES

Buy GSPL (41.35),Sl 38.5,Tgt 45/48+

Buy LT (886.25) 865/75,Sl 855,Tgt 900/05/10/20

Buy REL (739.5) 715/25,Sl 700,Tgt 745/60+

Buy RIL (1785) 1755/65,Sl 1745,Tgt 1800/15/35/45

Buy INDIACEM@ 124/25,Sl 122,Tgt 127/127.5/128/129.3/130.6/131.5/133 (Lot Size : 2900)

Sell ZEEL@ 117/14,Sl 122,Tgt 112.2/111/109.5/108.7/107.6/106 (Lot Size : 2800)

COMMODITY

Buy June GOLD Above 14675,Tgt 14770/905/15230,Sl 14615

Sell GOLD Below 14560,Tgt 14420/205/095,Sl 14615

Buy May SILVER Above 21240,Tgt 21420/650/905,Sl 21140

Sell SILVER Below 21045,Tgt 20820/450/260,Sl 21140

Buy May CRUDE Above 2555,Tgt 2615/55/90+,Sl 2545

Sell CRUDE Below 2535,Tgt 2495/15/2300,Sl 2545

Buy April COPPER Above 225.3,Tgt 229.1/232.1/242.2,Sl 223.8

Sell COPPER Below 222.1,Tgt 218.9/211.9/201.8,Sl 223.8

(SVShah)

NIFTY (3480.75)

Resistance : 3520 / 3565 / 3620 / 3685 / 3745 / 3780

Support : 3420 / 3355 / 3320 / 3265 / 3230 / 3160

SENSEX (11329.05)

Resistance : 11450 / 11560 / 11685 / 11785 / 12015

Support : 11135 / 10900 / 10790 / 10565 / 10485 / 10315

NIFTY FUT (3482.05)

Resistance : 3555 / 3630

Support : 3420 / 3345 / 3215

BANK NIFTY (5127.5)

Resistance : 5375 / 5620

Support : 4955 / 4700 / 4290

View for Week Starting 26 April 2009

NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Bullish

Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 3.23%, NIFTY FUT up 2.98% last week. OI of NIFTY 3400 CE is up 6.90% prices up 15.38% last week showing short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is up 45.26% prices down 15.85%, NIFTY 3600 CE is up 20.58% prices down 49.83% and 3700 CE is up 9.11% prices down 72.45% last week showing buying at lower levels.

OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is up 36.60% prices down 86.08%, NIFTY 3400 PE is up 58.87% prices down 77.69% and NIFTY 3500 PE is up 81.76% prices down 64.09% showing aggressive put writing.

We expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move next week. The rally looks to continue with the support from other markets around the globe.

NIFTY SPOT resistance at 3510-20, 3555-65 levels, strong resistance at 3615.20 levels. On downside, NIFTY SPOT support at 3430-20, strong support at 3365-55 levels.

SOME STOCK FUTS
Trend : Bullish

Total OI of DABUR FUT up 186% prices up 9.22%, LICHSGFIN FUT up 107% prices up 21.54%, RIIL FUT up 95.84% prices up 8.45%, IDBI FUT up 68.99% prices up 9.01%, ADLABSFILM FUT up 46.36% prices up 8.60% last week showing long positions build up in these STOCK FUTS.

TELECOM Sector looks to be Hot among Traders. OIL & GAS is also another sector to look out for. We Expect MID & SMALL Caps Also To Outperform This Week Due To Expiry.

We expect any profit booking should be followed by up move next week.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 3.23%, NIFTY FUT closed up 2.98% last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 32 Stock FUTS closed positive, 9 Stock FUTs closed negative and 9 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
3) OI of NIFTY 3400 CE is up 6.90% prices up 15.38% last week showing short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is 45.26% prices down 15.85%, NIFTY 3600 CE is up 20.58% prices down 49.83% last week showing buying at lower levels. OI of NIFTY 3500 CE is 55.42 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is up by 36.60% prices down 86.08%, NIFTY 3400 PE is up by 58.87% prices down 77.69% and NIFTY 3500 PE is up 81.76% prices down 64.09% last week showing aggressive put writing. OI of NIFTY 3300 PE is 70.94 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of APR series CALLs is up by 14.72 LK to 2.85 CR. APR series PUTs is up by 23.06 LK to 5.37 CR last week. APR series PCR (OI) at 1.88.

Conclusion :-

I expect NIFTY SPOT to show up move next week with possibility of profit booking at higher levels. In this week we shall hit the target of double bottoms at 3700 which were spotted at 2900.

The Current Wave (Major) which started at 2500 looks to top out at 3900. Good to book out Partial Profits in Stocks. Investments for a Horizon of more than 3-4 months are not advised.

NIFTY SPOT resistance at 3510-20, 3555-65 levels. Above 3565 level, next target will be 3615-20 levels. Profit expected above 3620 levels.

On down side, NIFTY SPOT support at 3430-20 levels, below 3420 levels, strong support at 3365-55 levels.

Buy For Short Term (Delivery / Positional)

ABANOFF 475/85 ; ESSARSHIP 42/44 ; WOCKHARDT 101/104,Tgt 110/15+

TORRENTPOWER ,Tgt 110/20/30 ; MOSERBAER 65/67,Tgt 70/75/80++

SHIVVANI 157/160,Tgt 180/200/210+ ; VIDEOCONINDS 120/125,Tgt 150/175/200

Weekly

GOLD

Support($) : 890 / 915

Resistance($) : 925 / 940

CRUDE Looks Hot , Buy At Lower Levels

Tgt($) : 52.95 / 53.7 / 54.2

Dow industrial is almost at the resistance which I had been writing since last few week.it attempted 8175 and closed lower every time it tried to cross. If sustains now can be a journey towards 8800-9000.