NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

The index has done nothing in last few days but technical analysts have started pondering widely on different possibilities or patterns which have still not formed .....

In the extreme short term as i have always said REACT RATHER THEN PREDICT ...

So starting of with explaining the notations on the chart and also the observations in the line below.

Few of the notations on Charts with focus on ELECTION time and BUDGET TIME

1) Ellipse showing the pattern at Elections and Budget -- Blue

Bit of similarity but a lesser range days this time

2) Momentum Trendline - Blue and Red

Just a little dip below in both cases. ( false alert )

3) Arrows for Tops

Similar tops seen around higher end it was 12300 before now 14950 ! ( Also previous ckt top at 14930 )

4) Short term Trendline -- Orange and Purple

Recent daily bottoms were seen around short term trendline which were support levels holding up !!

Observations :

-- > There are a lot of similarities in both the formations before the External events. Similar fractals.

-- > The resultant move after elections was on the upside.

-- > Of all the technical observations nothing points to a trend changing indication as of yet.

-- > Short term trendline holding up is an indication of not many market participants taking a bet towards a negative breakdown.

-- > The market has moved up a lot and upmoves are not larger in magnitude now which might be a sign of exhaustion setting in.

-- > If the index has to break down there would be enough opportunities to react ( short ) below the short term trendline or on break of 14200 which is still 700 points away now.

-- > The trend remains positive but not strong as before. A move beyond 15500 may open up to 16050-16200 also.

-- > Only a conclusive move below 14200-14k confirms a trend change which can lead to further retracement to 38% .

Possible HnS ??

There is a lot of buzz around amongst lot of analysts , trackers about a possible Head and Shoulders ( HNS ) being formed on the indices. Similar pattern seen on Dow and SnP as well as other indices.

BUT --

Head and Shoulders is a pattern which gets completed only when the neckline breaks ( may even be followed by a re-test of line ).

Its not a predictive pattern. One needs to wait for lot of confirmations. Otherwise every other move on the index can be assumed to be a possible HNS or Inverted HNS.

So as of now till the neckline is not broken its not into consideration. If it breaks ideally every trader would get opportunity to utilize it so why WORRY now.

Conclusion :

TREND still remains up and many signifcant observations still remain positive. Probability of a further stretch to 15500/16050 remains high. Strategy should be to keep a stop of 14200 or short term trendline at 14550 for longs which should not be heavy !! .

"" If you are not in the market all you can lose is an opportunity Not Money""

MY CHART

Nifty :: An Engulfing bullish candle during done trend.. Bulls try to give final support to protect H&S pattern at top. As per our last week post still Nifty below 4480/4528.. Up to 4528 mid term momentum down.. Be careful on Budget day.. Avoid market at least for today.. If you want to trade watch first resistance 4440 above 4440 buy on deep with strictly S.L 4415.. Above 4440 watch strong resistance 4480/4485/4528 book fast profit near this three level after it wait and watch.. If Nifty turn down watch strong support 4300/4250.. Avoid long position once Nifty break 4250.. Resistance for up move at 4440/4451/4485/4528/4546/4580.. Supports at 4365/4344/4300/4250/4166

(Inder Bhatia)

BUYHDFC ABOVE 2564 TGT 2610>2633>2665 STOPLOSS 2519

BUY NTPC BELOW203 TGT 209>213 STOPLOSS 199

Last week we had mention any major rally correct before next move still we had seen just 23%-4151 level and 38%around 3850 and 50%is 3592 zones as shown in above chart .

Last week sensex gain 1% and nifty ending higher by 1.1% respectively. As coming week we can see large swing on both side and volatile session moving head for budget day .If nifty trade above 4443 levels it can test 4480-4513 zones and trading below 4370-4330 levels it likely to test lower levels 4280-4190 zones and closing below 4140 levels it will fill gap zone 3800-3900 levels .On the higher side keep on locking profit ,We feel that the prices have already factored in

The Indian market opened on weak note tracking weak global cues and close with green zone. For coming session if nifty trade above 4440 levels then it likely to test 4482-4513 zone .On the lower side 4370-4330 levels will act as support zone .

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart

Weekly Charts

Weekly Charts

• Uptrendline not violated.
• Oscillators not showing any weakness.
• The correction since 12th June from 4693 has maintained above the 50% retracement level of fall from January 2008 .
• The Golden Cross of 20-50-200 is intact.
• This week's candle clearly shows support at lower levels.
• This week we have a higher bottom higher top candle.
• Support on uptrendline is at 4472 for the week.
• The flag formation shown in green conveys consolidation before the upmove resumes.

View : Cautiously optimistic

Daily Charts

• Oscillators are showing signs of strengthening .
• All moving averages are once again bullishly aligned.
• The nifty has closed above the uptrendline after remaining below it for the last three trading sessions.
• Though today's candle is a bullish engulfing candle , it is not an impressive one.
  
• Given a breakout from downtrending line shown as red dotted line.
  
• Rising wedge formation--a bearish formation-- in the last 10 days of trade, with falling volumes which is characteristic of the pattern. The appearance of this formation reiterates the view that this is the forming of the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern.

View : Neutral

Intra Day Charts

• All moving averages are bullishly aligned.
• All oscillators positive.
• Below uptrendline from 2539.

View : Neutral

My View

The weekly has not shown any signs of weakening . However, the daily and intra day charts show a sideways listless movement conveying market players are not ready to take positions before the budget. The Advance Decline ratio too is neutral. Till there is a rise above 4440 on good volumes and momentum I would be neutral on the market.

I would continue my positional longs with a stop loss of 4143.

(pankaj564)

i have discussed market options in past mails. i have put both options in a single chart today.i have tried to show probable moves in coming few weeks.

as per one option we can move upto apprx 15300 and we can start good correction.

as per second option if we cross 15300 zone decisively we can see 16047 or more.

more comments are on charts.

(ss)

The banks index on NSE - BANKNIFTY has outperformed the Nifty by gaining 2.2% over the week. Above is a weekly chart showing a nearby resistance around 8000. Below is a daily chart.

(STOCK VIEW)

BANK NIFTY ON THE DAILY CHARTS INDICATES BREAK OUT. KEEP EYE ON BANK STOCKS.

STOCK VIEW)