NEWS

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Momentum line holds yet again !!

Sensex has taken a smart move from 14k levels and now is back to 14700 +. The move has been on expected lines and as has been discussed extensively in the webinar we need to watch whether 15600 is taken over or not in next few weeks.

In previous testing of the momentum line the Sensex has bounced back sharply above the recent highs.

So resistances to look for are 14900-15100 and then 15600. A move above 15600 would keep the pattern intact and target 16200 or more.

As was mentioned in last few sessions to deploy some cash at 14k-14.3k in stock specific with a stop of 13800. The view remains same to keep on trailing and watch for recent highs are broken to go for more gains or the trendline breaks to dump the stocks.

Stocks to watchout for :

Sugar stocks have continued to remain strong in the last few months and have been consolidating for past few weeks. Strong hearted traders can either buy with a stop given on dips or buy in momentum for quick trades. Risk is lil high as all are very volatile.

Balrampur stop 98 momentum above 112.5.

Triveni Engg 95 momentum above 106.

Renuka stop 132 momentum above 153.

Bajaj Hind stop 190 momentum above 223.

Nestle is yet another defensive stock which can move up in the short run after cadilla.Buy small qty on dips to give stability to the portfolio.

Strides Arcolab

Increasing volumes seen and making a nice accumulation pattern. Can take small exposure with a stop of 138 . Momentum could be seen abov 153-155 zone in short term targetting 165-180.

Sunday Thoughts :

Quick actions/decisions/discipline or inactivity with discipline which makes wealth and not superior thinking in markets.

The above line is one of the apt ones to describe a standard scenario in markets generally or even in last one year or so. I would put them into 3 sets of investor/trader groups.

An active investor with discipline and technical bias would have sold investments at 16-15k k in May and re-entered investments at 10k in April again ! . In between traded all through the bear rallies and dumps. Would now look to exit at 15-16k again and then keep trading al through.

All the above moves may not have been exactly timed but would have given a very good edge with optimized returns with lower risk. The portfolio would be largely positive even if he started at 20k !!

At the same time some long term investor stuck at 20k would have got on to a 3 times from bottom still way back from the good old days. So inactivity would have got him back to a better place then Oct/March. These section may have accumulated wealth through last few years/decades so more insulated !!

The worst placed is the over-pondering over-confused and a delayed action making investor who sold aat 12k and then at 9k waiting to take all back at 6k and is was watching till 14k with a portfolio of DEPLETED cash !! ..............When would he come back in at 16k/18k well thats when the top two groups would be thinking cautiously....

Free Weekly Stock Market Prediction and Forecast for Last week of June 2009 and First week of July 2009 : 29th June 2009 to 3rd July 2009

Planetary position during Last week of June 2009 and First week of July 2009
Sun will transit from Gemini.
Mercury will transit from Taurus, will transit from Gemini from 1st July 2009.
Venus will transit from Aries, will transit from Taurus from 1st July 2009.
Moon will transit from Virgo, Libra and Scorpio.
Mars will transit from Aries.
Rahu will transit from Capricorn.
Retrograde Jupiter will transit from Aquarius.
Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.


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Stock Market Prediction for 29th June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in separating aspect with Transiting Rahu, indicates Indian Stock Market may start their business in green signal. Buying in heavy weight script and from FII will support market. Market may steady or go up side up to 13.05.






Stock Market Prediction for 30th June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mercury, indicates Market may open nearer to previous closing. Market may steady or up side up to 12.50. Some profit booking at higher level will be seen, so be careful.







Stock Market Prediction for 1st July 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Libra Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be receiving hard aspect from Transiting Rahu, indicates Volatility will be seen in Indian Stock Market during first treading session, but it may go up as the time progress. it will be reasonalbly good treading day.






Stock Market Prediction for 2nd July 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Libra Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mars, indicates Market movement would not be clear. Extreme Volatility will be there, However, there may be some recovery in OIL & GAS sector. Gold Price will also increase.






Stock Market Prediction for 3rd July 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Scorpio Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mars, indicates Market will also Volatile on 3rd July 2009. Do business will due precaution up to 11.55. Intraday treader will see Market in Green signal or Market may go up between 12.00 and 13.15. Some profit booking will be seen after 13.30, so be careful.





During Last week Sensex has gained 1.7%, Nifty has gained 1.4%. Capital Goods index was the top gainers from BSE. Auto and Metal indices lost the most. Rupee appreciated 1% against the dollar to close at 48.11. European markets were trading around 0.5% higher. US stock indices futures were marginally in the red.

MONSOON

If Good Monsoon will come soon, it will help market. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, New Delhi, INDE says Monsoon will come during July 2009.

Technical Analysis
Resistance Level for Nifty will be 4375, 4393, 4478, 4515, 4517 and 4584. Support Level for Nifty will be 4367, 4314, 4270 and 4144.

Resistance Level for Sensex will be 14792, 15153, 15195, 15261 and 15579. Support Level for Sensex will be 14615, 14374, 14592, 14489 and 14082.

(Inder Bhatia)

BUY ICICIBANK ABOVE 757 TGT 785>803 STOPLOSS 729

SELL M&M BELOW 683 TGT 653>638 STOPLOSS 705

Last week we had mention any major rally correct before next move still we had seen just 23%-4151 level and 38%around 3850 and 50%is 3592 zones as shown in above chart .

Last week sensex gain 1.7% and nifty ending higher by 1.4% respectively. As last week we had mention about some pullback can seen nifty bounces from lower levels and touch 4370 levels moving head 4442-4483-4553 zone will act as resistances zone .On the lower side if nifty crack below 4140 zone we can see deep correction towards 4000-3865 zones .For coming weeks closing below 4310 levels we can test 4220-4150 zones .

The Indian market opened on higher note tracking positive cues from global market and close with hand some gains.For coming session nifty trading above 4380 it likely to test 4440-4483 zones .On the other side 4290-4240 levels will act support zones.




(STOCK VIEW)

(ss)

LIC Housing Finance is in a fierce rally on this weekly chart. You can never ever tell where this thing is going to stop. The trend is your friend until it bends. Sure!

(ss)

Dabur is showing a saucer pattern on the weekly charts. Since the prior trend before the saucer pattern is up, this can be called a consolidation pattern - almost 1-1/2 year into it. Watch out for a breakout above the blue horizontal line.

(ss)

Bartronics is on a breakout point. Weekly chart (above) shows a gain of 29% and the daily chart below shows again a bowl pattern.

(SVShah)

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 35.61%, NIFTY FUT closed up 1.40% last week. OI down due to expiry. But OI down more this time compare to previous expiry showing new series began lite. Total OI at 2.19 CR, compare to 2.87 CR in previous series.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 23 Stock FUTS closed positive, 14 Stock FUTS closed negative and 13 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3) Total OI of NIFTY 4200 CE is up 3235% prices down 4%, NIFTY 4300 CE is up 784% prices down 8% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is up 364% prices down 25% last week showing call writing. OI of NIFTY 4700CE is 19.27 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3800 PE is up 903% prices down 53%, NIFTY 3900 PE is up 268% prices down 49%, NIFTY 4000 PE is up 168% prices down 44% and NIFTY 4200 PE is up 239% prices down 35% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4200 PE is 22.85 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of JULY series CALLs is up by 88.70 LK to 1.32 CR. JULY series PUTs is up by 86.76 LK to 1.43 CR last week. JULY series PCR (OI) at 1.08.

Conclusion :-
I Expect NIFTY SPOT to trade rangebound with volatility next week. Any up move will face R 4500-4510, 4530-40 levels. Above 4550 levels, next target will be 4580-90 level which looks difficult. Failed to sustain above 4550 level means BULL will prefer to book profit. I expect fresh shorts should be initiated above 4500 levels. I expect down move from 4515-4545 zone for target 4270-80, 4240-50 next week.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SECTOR WATCH
SECTOR : CAPITAL GOODS
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of ABB FUT down 23.94% prices up 6.60%, BHEL FUT down 33.60% prices up 5.38%, LT FUT up 2.04% prices up 7.53% and SIEMENS FUT down 36.24% prices up 6.32% last week. OI down due to expiry. All stocks outperformed last week. We expect positive move in CAPITAL GOODS STOCK FUTs next week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
FSL FUT
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of FSL FUT up 56।40% prices up 7.87% last week. Intraday high 26.40, Intraday low 22.75 last week. We expect positive move above 26.50 levels next week.

Weekly Trend (29-06-2009 to 04-07-2009)

NIFTY (4376) : 4385 & 4460 Will Be Important Resistance. Keep 4200-4180 As Supports (Stoploss) For All Longs

Resistance : 4430-40 / 4505 / 4545 / 4625 / 4775

Support : 4305 / 4270 / 4235 / 4195 / 4150 / 4085

SENSEX (14765) : Keep 13990 As Stoploss For All Longs

Resistance : 14960 / 15020 / 15165 / 15230 / 15460 / 15550

Support : 14630 / 14565 / 14390 / 14160 / 13990 / १३८४०

STOCKS To Watch To BUY

UNITECH : Range Of 77-80,Sl 72,Tgt 90/95/100/105

HOTELLELLA : Range 31-33,Sl 29,Tgt 40/45/47/50

SKUMARN : Range : 43-45,Sl 41,Tgt 50/55/60

KSOIL : Range :58/61,Sl 55,Tgt 65/68/70/75

IDBI :Range 104-08,Sl 101,Tgt 111/15/20/25

TELCO : 335-45,Sl 330,Tgt 350/60/70/80

RPOWER : 172/77,Sl 167,Tgt 182/85/90/93/95

MRPL : 82-85,Sl 79,Tgt 90/95/100/05

RELCAP : 905/25,Sl 885,Tgt 960/80/95/1005

RCOM : 295-305,Sl 285,Tgt 315/25/35

DREDGING : 480-90,Sl 460,Tgt 550/600/50/700

LGBROS : 14-15,Sl 12,Tgt 18/20/23

SURYAPHARMA : 99/101,Sl 95,Tgt 110/115/20/25

KFA : 50-53,Sl 47,Tgt 57/60/65

ANULABS : 26/28,Sl 24,Tgt 35/38/41/43

EXIDEIND : 65/67,Sl 62,Tgt 75/80

RNRL : 90/95,Sl 85,Tgt 100/05

HARRISON (500467) : 76/79,Sl 73,Tgt 85/90/95/100

Half Hourly

Daily

Weekly

" The stochastics is trending up sharply from oversold levels indicating that prices are no longer closing near the lower range and a reversal is on the way."
The Nifty zoomed 133 points to substantiate my view.


Weekly

• The weekly support of 4250 held and thus the uptrendline is unviolated.
• Oscillators though overbought are not showing weakness.
• The Golden Cross of 20-50-200 is intact.
• This week's candle clearly shows support at lower levels.
• Second consecutive week of lower bottom lower top.
• Support on uptrendline is at 4360 for the week.

View : Cautiously optimistic

Daily

• Nifty once again moved back above the uptrendline and the 5,10 & 20 demas.
• Stochastic which clearly indicated an upmove in the offing is looking strong.
  
• RSI14 has bullishly moved above the 50 line after only briefly moving below it.
• Correction was restricted to 23.6% levels of entire rise which is very bullish.
• Retraced more than 40% of the fall from 4693-4143 .
• Potential Head & Shoulders pattern spotted and we have to be watchful as this move may be the right shoulder.
  

View: moderately positive

Intra Day

• Moved above uptrendline.
• Oscillators are once again in the overbought region but still going strong.
• An inverted head and shoulders formation spotted having a target of 4540.
• The shorter term averages are once again bullishly aligned but are yet to align themselevs from the bearish stupor with the longer term averages.

View : moderately positive

My view

It is the action seen during countertrend moves that says the most about the health of the overall trend. Was the fall from 4693 a countertrend move to the rise from 2539? Or is the upmove from 4143 a countertrend move to the fall from 4693? We gauge both scenarios.

We have just had the biggest fall --fast and furious as someone put it--in this uptrend and this a negative.

We will be watchful of the just begun upmove to gauge whether it is continuing trend or corrective of the recent fall. We will continue this analysis daily so we remain on our toes.

• First mark is negative as volumes were not very impressive.
• Second mark is positive as advance decline improved , though just a wee bit.
  

Short term trend is now mildly positive with price above short as well as long term averages on daily charts. Intermediate term is bullish but overbought so one needs to be wary of any sudden change in sentiment which may cause the trend to change. However one needs to trade and the sensible thing to do would be to trade the short term when it is in sync with the intermediate trend which is up. So one can be long for a target of 4538 with a strict stop at 4150-4200.

Santy

Thursday Nifty opened higher near 4300 and closed low at 4250 which was well above near term support at 4200. Yesterday as we had anticipated in earlier post, Nifty was trading higher all day through after getting nice support near 4260/4280 level and finally closed at 4375. Hence swing trade BUY order target met from 4285 to 4375. From past four sessions daily candlestick chart pattern suggests near term target at 4545/4650 where as major support at 4160. So it could be a better idea to BUY and hold some positions till it hits first target at 4550. For Monday a small pull back is expected. If it pulls back to 4350/60 level, then BUY at 4365 with stop loss at 4320 for first target at 4550 and second target at 4650. This second target to come, we might wait for another two or three sessions time period. So as long as it does not pulls back more than 38% ( 4325) of this up leg ( 4229- 4375), it is safe to BUY any point above 4330.

(Tanmay Gopal)

UNITED PHOSPHORUS LIMITED

CMP Rs 155.75

http://www.uplonline.com/

Equity Rs 87.91Cr Face Value Rs 2 Debt-Equity Ratio = 0.57 Book Value Rs 60.26 EPS Rs 10.60

United Phosphorus Limited (UPL) (incorporated in 1969 ) is a crop protection, chemicals and seeds company, headquartered in Mumbai. UPL and Advanta, the two companies in their group, are listed on the Indian stock exchange, with a combined market capitalization of approx $2.5 billion. Integrating the companies is more difficult than acquiring them and UPL has managed it quite well so far.

Group Companies:- http://www.uplonline.com/groupcomapnies/index.php3

Products:-

UPL is a leading global producer of crop protection products, intermediates, specialty chemicals and other industrial chemicals. UPL has its presence across value added Agri inputs ranging from seeds to crop protection and post harvest activity.

UPL is -

• The largest manufacturer of agrochemicals in India
• Offers a wide range of products that includes insecticides, Fungicides, Herbicides, Fumigants,PGR and Rodenticides.
• Operates in every continent and has customer base in 86 countries.
• Ranks amongst the top 5 post- patent agrochemical manufacturers in the world.
• Developer of more than 100 insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, fumigants and rodenticides for every stage of the growing cycle

UPL offers 'total crop protection' - http://www.uplonline.com/products/index.php3?pgidee=productinfo

United Phophorus Limited has the widest range of generic agrochemical and other chemical intermediates http://www.uplonline.com/products/index.php3?pgidee=agrochemicals

Specialty Chemicals :- http://www.uplonline.com/products/index.php3?pgidee=speciality

Industrial Chemicals :- http://www.uplonline.com/products/index.php3?pgidee=industrialchemicals

FY09 Performance:-

Since FY02, the company recorded a growth rate of 29% in revenues and 55% in profits. Its FY09 revenues grew 32% driven both by higher volumes & higher prices and Profits after Tax grew 73%.

Diverse Geographical Mix:-

UPL doesn't depend on a specific country/continent to a large extent as the revenues look quite diversified over different regions:- Europe (32% of FY09 revenues), US (22%), India (21%) and ROW (26%). In addition to it, all these regions have shown growth in FY09.

Necessity of Crop-protection:-

Agri-chem demand is sensitive to factors like weather, commodity prices, government farm support and spread of Genetically Modified crops (GM Crops). Even though there is no strict relationship between the agri-commodity prices and growth of crop-protection industry, the rise in prices of agri-commodity does improve the profitability of the farmers and it in turn can enhance their usage of crop-protection products, resulting in an overall growth of the industry. UPL has grown handsomely in recent years, not just because of acquisitions but also because of its fantastic organic growth and having a global footprint, it has a great opportunity to increase its market share to new levels.With people becoming aware of scarcity of water in the world and Indian monsoon playing truant this season, crop-protection and GM Crops are need of the hour and this is where UPL may have a point to prove.

Technical Outlook:-

The stock is in a firm uptrend since October'08 when it hit low of Rs 65 amid overall market panic. But after that it formed a strong base for 4-5 months to start current rally. The stock trades near Rs 155 and looks strong to touch Rs 185-190 levels in short-term, one can keep stop loss at Rs 140 to protect capital.

Investors can accumulate this stock at CMP and even in dips for 1-2 year target of Rs 232.

Tanmay Gopal)

POWERGRID CORP (Rs 110.85) - A Technical View:-
The stock of POWERGRID is trading in up-channel and is near a very strong support Rs 100-105. Buy the stock around current levels or in dips towards Rs 104-108 for short-term target Rs 124-128. 200DMA at Rs 96-97 can be regarded as a stop loss for short-term players.

Possibility of disinvestment announcement in budget can keep this stock buoyant as Government holds higher stakes in Power companies making them preferred choices for disinvestment list and any reforms in power sector can benefit POWERGRID.


About POWERGRID (Source - Company Website) :-

• POWERGRID, a Navratna Public Sector Enterprise, is one of the largest transmission utilities in the world.
• POWERGRID wheels about 45% of the total power generated in the country on its transmission network.
• POWERGRID has a pan India presence with around 71,500 Circuit Kms of Transmission network.
• POWERGRID has also diversified into Telecom business and established a telecom network of more than 20,000 Kms across the country.
• POWERGRID has consistently maintained the transmission system availability over 99% which is at par with the International Utilities.

Azad)

NIFTY : (4375.50) Today Nifty face resistance at 4425, if cross 4425 then goes up to 4474 and 4484, Nifty find support at 4355, if 4355 break then fall up to 4334 and 4285.

ITC : (196.70)

Buy Above 196 target 1-200, target 2-206, stop loss 192

ICICI BANK : (756.15)

Buy Above 756 target 1-775, target 2-796, stop loss 740
Sell Below 740 target 1-721, target 2-704, stop loss 756

SIEMENS : (498.35)

Sell Below 500 target 1-482, target 2-462, stop loss 510

STERLITE : (613.75)

Buy Above 615 target 1-627, target 2-669, stop loss 600

GTOFFSHORE : (421.10)

Sell Below 420 target 1-414, target 2-407, stop loss 428

TRIVENI : (101.50)

Sell Below 101 target 1-98, target 2-96, stop loss 104

EDUCOMP : (3518.15)

Sell Below 3520 target 1-3451, target 2-3385, stop loss 3550

EVERONN : (408.30)

Sell Below 408 target 1-402, target 2-389, stop loss 414

IVRCL INFRA : (377.15)

Buy Above 378 target 1-400, target 2-427, stop loss 370