This thing has literally been injected in to traders mind that FIIs are GOD
If they buy we go up if they sell we go down ,Dear friends thats not true
Yes FIIs hold importance too but not to that extent that Traders just try to follow them.
History has showed Fiis tend to sell more near lows and buy big at highs.
A recent example FIIs did no 4 digit buys at bottom
They bought 1600+ cr the day govt got majority and that was the wave 1 top:)
I am attaching a chart which shows you what buy sell happened from FIIs and MFs since that july 17th bottom which shows no considerable buys from them .The two green arrows shows 4 digits buys by FIIs on that particular day and those 2 days made respective tops.
I think its usually the OPERATORS ,LIC ,UTI etc who tend to enjoy this bottom buying
The stock has a break out on considerable volume The 14 RSI is bullish with a positive dive: and the price may lead to higher levels.
CMP: 37.50 TARGET:62 STOP LOSS:32
![[dishtv.jpg]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdlMltA4z8_GraQkKF2hSR92bLskyq06zwrFswhxiJCzARVRJI11rkaAFjkrMogfghGnKsA1udv4nzgGa6lhJ21bphOHinXVtK5JjXBiuU4a9ayEDw6U04swS2C4f2oTOYa8BiZwr4e5g/s1600/dishtv.jpg)
Asieanelec: is poised for a break out preferably on up side
good above 95 on break out
cmp:93.45 target: 162 stop:80
![[asian_8807.jpg]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZjBZNPgghUq86l1xvwdfPINJQt9DesBhl7zutapGICyVrvC_yb8WieGeKINcH8sa0tNITEpynv86H9bYit4tLPFHq4_bbxATNuvUsKXLWFhr50df1jIROKMOJtfeZwtNKIH6sNbKKzXo/s1600/asian_8807.jpg)
Market Technicals for the week ending 08th Aug
Indian Markets Technicals
Both Nifty & Sensex has become a bit strong at these levels. The trend for fresh buying positions will continue if the markets continue to trade beyond 4331 & 14355. There are chances that Nifty may move 182 - 183 points up & Sensex may move 653 - 654 points up. There are chances of a weekly movement of around 525 points & 1910 points in Nifty & Sensex respectively.
If the markets sustain above 4504 & 14983 levels, then they will try to touch 4595 & 15310 levels.
On the other hand, market has a weak support at 4240 & 14028 because the markets may further fall down to 4068 & 13400 levels from this point due to panic selling & profit booking which can act as a strong support.
US Markets Technicals
Both Nasdaq & Dow has become a bit weak at these levels. The trend for fresh buying positions will continue if the markets continue to trade beyond 2307 & 11346. There are chances that Nasdaq may move 91 - 92 points up & Dow may move 481 - 482 points up. There are chances of a weekly movement of around 185 points & 920 points in Nasdaq & Dow respectively.
If the markets sustain above 2356 & 11566 levels, then they will try to touch 2402 & 11807 levels.
On the other hand, market has a weak support at 2261 & 11105 because the markets may further fall down to 2212 & 10884 levels from this point due to panic selling & profit booking which can act as a strong support.
Intraday Market Technicals for 08th August
Both Nifty & Sensex has become a bit weak at these levels. The trend for fresh buying positions will continue if the markets continue to trade beyond 4548 & 15170. There are chances that Nifty & Sensex may open 62 - 63 points down & 250 - 251 points down. There are chances of an intraday movement of around 140 points & 450 points in Nifty & Sensex respectively.
If the markets sustain above 4633 & 15457 levels, then they will try to touch 4666 & 15567 levels.
On the other hand, market has a weak support at 4440 & 14815 because the markets may further fall down to 4407 & 14705 levels from this point due to panic selling & profit booking which can act as a strong support.
Derivatives Calls
Futures
Buy Nifty Aug' 08 Futures above 4600.00 levels with a target of 4863.00 & with a stoploss/ average below 4440.00.
Buy Cipla Aug' 08 Futures above 227.00 levels with a target of 237.00 & with a stoploss/ average below 222.00.
Options
Buy Nifty 4700.00 CE Aug' 08 with a target of 115.00 & with a strict stoploss below 48.00.
Buy Polaris 110.00 CA Aug' 08 with a target of 5.50 & with a strict stoploss below 2.25.
Long Term Delivery Calls
We strongly recommend a buy on Canfin Homes at current levels with a long-term target of 111.00.
We strongly recommend a buy on Tanfac Inds. at current levels with a long-term target of 111.00.
Medium Term Delivery Calls
Sell Eveready Inds. if it sustains below 36.00 levels with a medium-term target of 23.00 & with a stoploss/ average above 43.00.
Short Term Delivery Calls
Sell Kaushalya Infra. if it sustains below 27.00 levels with a short-term target of 23.00 & with a stoploss/ average above 28.50.
Buy Shayam Telecom if it sustains above 103.00 levels with a short-term target of 116.00 & with a stoploss/ average below 91.00.
| Todays Case - Mumbai S.E. |
| APTECH LTD (532475) - 7 Aug. Price: 214.85 |
| APTECH LTD has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development. Has broken the resistance at 212 of a rectangle pattern, which signals a further rise. The stock has marginally broken up through the resistance at 214. An established break predicts a further rise. Volume tops correspond well with price tops, and volume bottoms correspond well with price bottoms. Volume balance is also positive, which strengthens the stock. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term. |
| The medium long term: Positive candidate |
 |
LAST 5 DAYS GAINER
SHORT TERM PICK
SHORT TERM CAIRN
Market may open down. Market may up between 11.29 and 11.55. Market may steady or up side between 12.19 and 12.47. Market may close at down to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
EDUCOMP - Educomp Solutions Limited
BALRAMCHIN - Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
CAIRN - Cairn India Limited
BHARTIARTL - Bharti Airtel Limited
CENTURYTEX - Century Textiles & Industries Ltd
On 7th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 15,117 (up 43 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,523 (up 6 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
DRREDDY - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.
IDFC - Infrastructure Development Finance Company Limited
CROMPGREAV - Crompton Greaves Ltd
ZEEL - Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd
MLL - Mercator Lines Limited
Technical Analysis for 8th August 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 15129, 15054, 14979, 14910, 14841, 14697, 14553, 14409
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 15198, 15267, 15342, 15417, 15561, 15705, 15849, 15993
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4532, 4508, 4484, 4464, 4445, 4401, 4358, 4314
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4551, 4571, 4595, 4619, 4662, 4706, 4749, 4793
(EOD chart)
Nifty fut trading below 4555 will be weak, and breaking 4485 can fall to 4420 levels for intraday.
For longs trading above 4485 will be fine, but real strenght will come only once 4555 is crossed.
if nifty trades above 4555, positional longs should be taken.
A close below 4485 can bring in change in trend, and can get weak for tgts of 4332
BREAKOUT SHARES
Breakouts ANSALINFRA and ADLABSFILM
NIFTY ANYLASIS FOR 11THAUGUST.BREAKOUT SHARES
Breakouts ANSALINFRA and ADLABSFILM
Stock : Jai Corp
CMP : 380
Targets : 450 and 600
Jai corp is one of the Buzz word of 2007 and here is a story about it have a look at The Jai Corp Story before
tracking this intresting stock This stock mostly have a gap up opening in bull markets and gap down opening
in bear markets. Circuits are its favorite word
So How to Trade Jai Corp?
Stock showing close just below 20 day EMA(Rs 399.2) . Stocks Highly oversold and trying to panic the investors. So a necessary pullback should happen with in 1-2 days to start its bull run once again. So Carefully watch this stock and try to grab it at the end of the day.Also try to grab this stock if it opens in upper circuit. And dont forget to reject this stock if it closes below 20day EMA.
in upper circuit. And dont forget to reject this stock if it closes below 20day EMA.
The Message is clear buy above 400 is the mantra
As said and expected the markets remained volatile and showed two sided movement with wild swings.
The pattern of the market still remains in undecisive mode and the markets are waiting for fresh triggers.
Technically the markets looks weak for some more downsides but should find supports near 14750 levels.
The crucial levels for the sensex remains at 14510 and 4350 on the nifty.
Structurally the markets are still in a whipsaw mode and will remain highly volatile
Moreover after initial dip and volatility , some buying is likely to emerge in second half of the market.
The supports for the nifty is at 4350 levels and resistance at 4625 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14750 levels and resistance at 15300 levels
Stocks to watch
Mic
Hopcl
Asha pura minechem
There is not much change in view since last post. Market still looks good for around 4800. But before that what we are witnessing is a small pullback rally. I have marked the 0.382 retracement on charts. As long as this is held use these dips to build positional longs and would recommend short on rise for intraday today till around 4440 levels.
Adlabs (CMP 550) as posted previously has given a nice breakout now and is looking at 580 to 600 levels in this rally.
Some excerpts
"bears are exceedingly dangerous environments for investors. Fools ignore bears at their own great peril, and even the prudent are filled with plenty of trepidation. For the most part, you can't merely weather a bear by buying the best-of-breed companies. They will get sucked into the selling too. Other than sitting in cash, the only viable strategy for surviving, even thriving, in bears is actively trading these merciless beasts. "
"The key to successfully trading bear markets is understanding their primary driver, sentiment. The mission of a bear is to gradually hammer on investors until their perceptions of stocks radically change. When a bear begins, optimism and greed abound and traders are far too complacent. But by the time the bear ends, all hope has been beaten away. Pessimism and fear remain and traders are totally demoralized. "
"To trade a bear, traders have to carefully monitor popular sentiment. And then when it gets to an extreme, they must do the opposite of what mainstream market thought considers right. When the thundering herd is scared, traders want to go long and buy stocks. When the herd is greedy or complacent, traders want to go short and sell stocks. Contrarian trading within bears is dazzlingly effective. "
Stock : Unitech
CMP : 176
Targets upgraded to 220 - 240
Stock Already Recommeded at 157 here and at 153 to to our sms susbcribers
Short Term Views
Short term technicals says that stock can move atleast 10% from present level if it hold above 176.
Also Ascending triangle pattern formed in the charts are giving us more and more conforming signals
that this stock will shine for the next week. Weekly charts technicals says that a nice pull back can
extend upto 205-210 in one or two weeks.
Check out the unitech previous recommedation here
As said and expected the markets remained volatile and showed two sided movement with wild swings.
The pattern of the market still remains in undecisive mode and the markets are waiting for fresh triggers.
Technically the markets looks weak for some more downsides but should find supports near 14750 levels.
The crucial levels for the sensex remains at 14510 and 4350 on the nifty.
Structurally the markets are still in a whipsaw mode and will remain highly volatile
Moreover after initial dip and volatility , some buying is likely to emerge in second half of the market.
The supports for the nifty is at 4350 levels and resistance at 4625 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14750 levels and resistance at 15300 levels
Stocks to watch
Mic
Hopcl
Asha pura minechem
There is not much change in view since last post. Market still looks good for around 4800. But before that what we are witnessing is a small pullback rally. I have marked the 0.382 retracement on charts. As long as this is held use these dips to build positional longs and would recommend short on rise for intraday today till around 4440 levels.
Adlabs (CMP 550) as posted previously has given a nice breakout now and is looking at 580 to 600 levels in this rally.
Nifty :: With all bearish candle pattern Nifty unable to hold at higher level.. For 8th Aug. watch support 4483/4480 if break this support Nifty correct sharply up to next strong support 4400/4391.. Our S.L for mid term long at 4334 at closing basis.. We advise please don’t short at lower level short advice only at higher level ..Still our strategy same as yesterday Buy on dip (S.L 4334) Sell at high (S.L 4586).. Resistance for up move at 4544/4586/4632/4725/4760.. Supports at 4495/4483/4470/4391/4334..
The most important companies which will give a massive return are the following:
1)JK paper
2)videocon industries
3)niit tech
4)dchl
5)ansal properties and infra
albk, GMDC ,Hotel leela can also be lookded at as they have good business models
The order is as per priority
The Indian market opened on weak note and traded in narrow range and saw some selling pressure at higher levels but managed to close in green zone. For the coming session if nifty trade below 4461 we can witness more selling pressure up to 4300-4264 levels, crossing above 4620 more upside can not be ruled out .
There is hope in air. A friend of mine asked me if we are going to touch 5000. The B-Channels are more than happy to give such figures, the reason best known to them. Some five weeks back everyone was asking if we are going to touch 3600 - 3000. Now just five weeks later everybody is going for 4900-5000 levels. This exactly what bear market feeds on. Its always a contrarian call. When everybody was 3600 the markets went up till 4600 and now when everybody is 5000, market will spring a surprise.
Enough of gyan , lets check it with some chart. You have to show some proof to the world to make them realise their folly.
So we can clearly see how the markets have moved since January. Lets see another chart to bring more perspective to what I am saying
I think now it must be clear. A point to note is the Slow Stoch which is likely to go downhill bring down Nifty with it. So get ready to short guys. This will be a lifetime opportunity to earn money by shorting , buying puts and build a portfolio when we are close to bottom. Stock will be sold at unbelievable prices.
Levels to take note of
4577.53 4558.30 4539.07 4500.60 4462.13 4442.90 4423.67 4385.20 4346.73 4327.50 4308.27 4269.80 4231.33 4212.10 4192.87 4154.40 4115.93 4096.70 4077.47 4039.00 4000.53 3981.30 3962.07 3923.60 3885.13 3865.90 3846.67 3808.20 3769.73 3750.50 3731.27 3692.80 3654.33 3635.10 3615.87 3577.40 3538.93 3519.70 3500.47 3462.00 3423.53 3404.30 3385.07 3346.60 3308.13 3288.90 3269.67 3231.20
Some excerpts
"bears are exceedingly dangerous environments for investors. Fools ignore bears at their own great peril, and even the prudent are filled with plenty of trepidation. For the most part, you can't merely weather a bear by buying the best-of-breed companies. They will get sucked into the selling too. Other than sitting in cash, the only viable strategy for surviving, even thriving, in bears is actively trading these merciless beasts. "
"The key to successfully trading bear markets is understanding their primary driver, sentiment. The mission of a bear is to gradually hammer on investors until their perceptions of stocks radically change. When a bear begins, optimism and greed abound and traders are far too complacent. But by the time the bear ends, all hope has been beaten away. Pessimism and fear remain and traders are totally demoralized. "
"To trade a bear, traders have to carefully monitor popular sentiment. And then when it gets to an extreme, they must do the opposite of what mainstream market thought considers right. When the thundering herd is scared, traders want to go long and buy stocks. When the herd is greedy or complacent, traders want to go short and sell stocks. Contrarian trading within bears is dazzlingly effective. "
Charateristic of Ascending Triangle Pattern :
1. Security within the context of an uptrend traces an orderly price decline from a swing high much like a pullback buy. The price then rallies up to the prior swing high and stalls. A second pullback occurs as overhead resistance is decreased and the stock then forms a higher swing low. This occurs over and over again until a series of equal swing highs and higher swing lows is formed.
2. The power of an ascending triangle can be greater after a powerful upside move due to the possible increase of underlying support.
3. Ascending triangles can be stronger when the swing high that begins the pattern is also an all time high due to the possible lack of overhead resistance.
2. The power of an ascending triangle can be greater after a powerful upside move due to the possible increase of underlying support.
3. Ascending triangles can be stronger when the swing high that begins the pattern is also an all time high due to the possible lack of overhead resistance.
********Technicals*****Nifty is in uptrend and is correcting sideways.
Doji formed today which suggest confusion in market.
Nifty is correcting sideways in 4450-4600 is very bullish.
Above 4560 nifty will resume its uptrend again.
****Nifty**** ~ August 8~
Nifty august future premium increased to 17 points. Open interest increased by 9 lacs today. ( new long ------ bullish)
***Options**** August 8~
Nifty call options add 10.7 lacs and put options add 11.7 lacs in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 1.32.(bearish)
********Fund flow*** ~ August 7~
~FII index fut + 118 cr
~FII stock fut – 277 cr
~FII cash -19 cr
~Mut cash -22 cr
*******total fund flow - 200 cr today but nifty was up by 6 points.
*******So far net fund flow of + 2323 cr in August series. (So far nifty is up in August series).
***********Past fund flow**********
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +15 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DOJI AFTER 800 POINTS
Another day which managed to end in the green but only marginally. Today’s gain was 6 points while yesterday’s gain was 14 points. Two days of big movements and a gain of 20 points overall and two consecutive dojis after a rally of 825 points is not bullish. I just returned from somewhere and it is already past midnight. Am not in a position to do too much of typing right now so I have just left my comments on the Nifty daily chart attached below.
The European markets also ended up as dojis today. They went down a percent, then recovered all its losses and even went up a percent but then lost everything to close marginally in the red. The American markets are down with the Dow having lost 120 points till now. Crude seems to be finding good support near $118 and has now gained almost $2 from this week’s lows and is trading at $119.90 at the moment.BAJAJ HINDUSTAN
Dated August 8, 2008
BAJAJ HIND (184)
If the stock does not cross 192 at the earliest then it can come down to 160, below which the stock becomes more weak and then can retrace down to a minimum of 130.
With elections approaching, the Government will not allow sugar coes to increase price in order to curb inflation, also with crude prices off highs the Ethanol story does not look very bright.
Fresh buys should be avoided now unless it crosses 192 or only near 160 with the latter as stop loss.
Sensex Technical View :
As usual good moves in the day subsiding by end of day .. Sensex is clearly showing signs of nervousness around this band of 15000-15400 . But only thing to note is the gap area 14980 i almost filled and below which we could see support around 14700 . Till markets dont give a good close above 15800 or 14700 markets could roughly remain in the range.
Traders can continue to be stock specific and be strict with stoplosses as lots of stocks r moving well.
Investors those who have acccumulated in the dips all the large caps like SBI < RCAP , BOI , LIC etc etc and were advised earlier to book arnd 50-70 % at 15000 levels should now look to exit all the lower buys at 15500-15800 and take a fresh view above 16k.
Review :
RPL seems is not ready to sustain 175 traders can reduce exposure or exit and wait . Lupin is a hold. HMT ITI watchout if they sustain those levels.Sugars have taken a breather and partial booking was advised in some will now look to re enter long term outlook remains positive.
After some good moves in Sakthi Sugars( 80 to 110 ) , Andhra Sugars( 95 to 118 ) , Renuka ,Triveni .... cements bounces etc
There were client calls on Elecon Engg ( 90 to 125 ) and Easun Reyrolle ( 105 to 120 still holding ) which rocked ! ...There are good value buying opportunities in this market ...
ABG shipyard and Bharti Shipyard seems to have bottomed out. Could see a bounce of 10-15 % in coming days.
Sun Pharma Advanced has signalled a breakout and can reach 95-105 . Can buy on dips stop of 80 .
Gitanjali Gems is trying to breakout from a sideways pattern . Buy on dips to 260-265 stop of 255 tgt 290.
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