Hello Friends,Profit booking was the key today as we have updated in our last post on this web. Gloabal cues helped the markets to open gap down. Metals & Banking stocks were highly beaten down. Also many Fridays Midcap & Small Cap top gainers lost the battle & were highly beaten. ADAG stocks which were on Fire on Friday were in control by the Fire Brigade people. Its has been heard that many leading Fii's were on spree of Profit booking ( may be they have heard our Voice of Profit Booking in our last post on our website ).
Tomorrow 31 March 2009 last day of Financial Year 2008-2009, on this day we may see some value buying at lower levels OR Dead Cat bounce from local Funds to book the year end NAV's. Stocks which Local Funds have large holdings can be the Star of the Day. Tomorrow the JOKER can be Reliance industries, lets check what Charts tel about Ril :
RIL Intra day Chart :
RIL : EOD Chart :
RIL have found supports on daily charts around 1490 - 1500 & bounced back sharply from that levels. The same buying at lower levels in last hour of trade was seen on Intra day charts along with huge volumes. So RIL may be the Key or Joker for the day.
NifTiee Intra day Levels:
Close 2978
Supports : 2950 / 2929 / 2910
Resistances : 2990 / 3030 / 3080
RELIANCE : (1516.45)
Buy Above 1518 target 1-1536, target 2-1556, target 3-1599, stop loss 1505
Sell Below 1510 target 1-1495, target 2-1475, target 3-1414, stop loss 1518
RELCAPITAL : (338.25)
Buy Above 346 target 1-358, target 2-382, stop loss 338
Sell Below 341 target 1-326, target 2-315, stop loss 348
RELINFRA : (502.85)
Buy Above 520 target 1-532, target 2-539, stop loss 510
Sell Below 510 target 1-493, target 2-481, target 3-460, stop loss 520
ABAN : (383.05)
Buy Above 398 target 1-419, target 2-453, stop loss 374
Sell Below 374 target 1-360, target 2-340, target 3-316, stop loss 398
AXIS BANK : (397)
Buy Above 406 target 1-420, target 2-444, stop loss 381
Sell Below 381 target 1-368, target 2-341, stop loss 397
ICICI BANK : (338.10)
Buy Above 350 target 1-369, target 2-392, stop loss 340
Sell Below 345 target 1-325, target 2-307, stop loss 355
SBI : (1022.35)
Buy Above 1052 target 1-1089, target 2-1156, stop loss 1012
Sell Below 1012 target 1-984, target 2-946, target 3-892, stop loss 1030
STERLITE : (348.70)
Buy Above 350 target 1-368, target 2-390, stop loss 336
Sell Below 336 target 1-309, target 2-290, stop loss 350
ONGC : (782.45)
Buy Above 788 target 1-805, target 2-820, stop loss 775
Sell Below 780 target 1-764, target 2-746, target 3-730, stop loss 792
MCDOWELL-N : (646.25)
Buy Above 658 target 1-673, target 2-717, stop loss 645
Sell Below 645 target 1-629, target 2-603, stop loss 658
Sensex : (9568.14) Today Sensex face resistance at 9713, if cross 9713 then goes up to 9905 and 10242. Sensex find support at 9375, if break 9375 then fall up to 9183 and 8846.
Nifty : (2978.15) Today Nifty face resistance at 3017, if cross 3017 then goes up to 3073 and 3167. Nifty find support at 2922, if 2922 break then fall up to 2867 and 2807.
Nifty April Futures closed at 2988.10 (Rs 9.95 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 13028.02 crores.Sheds 2022150 shares (-5.43%) in open interest bringing down the open interest to 35223850 shares.
The Indian market opened on gap-down and traded red territory through out the session and close in deep red zone .We had indicate about negative divergences on hourly chart and correction came today.For coming session trading below 2970 it will test 2930-2896 .On other side trading above 3009 it can test 3027-3043 levels .
| CAF, Siemens, Faiveley among key suppliers. |
"We will procure eight trains, each comprising six coaches, from CAF. The deliveries will start from January 2010. All the coaches will be manufactured in CAF's factories in Spain."
Mamuni Das
New Delhi, March 29 Reliance Infrastructure, an ADAG company, has finalised most of its contracts for the metro rail link between Delhi international airport and city centre.
The Delhi Airport Metro Express Pvt Ltd (DAMEPL) — a special purpose vehicle where Reliance Infrastructure has a 95 per cent equity stake and Spanish firm CAF owns the rest — has won the 30-year concession to design, build, finance, operate and maintain the 22.7 km rail link. The facility will be transferred back to DMRC at the end of the concession period.
ORDERSThe company will get the coaches, which are in standard gauge, from Spanish rolling stock firm CAF, which also has an equity stake in the project.
"We will procure eight trains, each comprising six coaches, from CAF. The deliveries will start from January 2010. All the coaches will be manufactured in CAF's factories in Spain," a top Reliance Infra official in charge of the metro projects told Business Line. CAF is responsible for the maintenance of coaches for seven years.
The equipment for signalling, power supply and baggage handling will be sourced from Siemens, Germany and its Indian subsidiary.
Orders for the platform screens have been placed with Faiveley; automatic fare collection machines will be sourced from the Spanish firm, Indra; ETA will supply the tunnel ventilation equipment; Kone will supply the lifts and Schindler will supply the escalators, and check-in equipment. Alcatel will provide the communication equipment such as fibre optics, passenger information system, CCTV and master-clock. He declined to share details on the value and size of orders.
FINANCIAL CLOSURE The company recently signed the financing agreements for long-term loans from financial institutions and a sanction of around Rs 2,500 crore against a total debt requirement of Rs 2,020 crore has been achieved, Mr K.P. Maheshwari, Project Director, had stated in a release.
For DAMEPL, the cost of funds is 225 basis points below the Axis Bank's prime lending rate. The funds have a door-to-door tenor of 17.5 years. "We will have a 14.5 year repayment period with a ballooning repayment schedule. It is staggered in such a way that the repayment increases towards the end of the period," said the official.
The transaction led by Axis Bank (Rs 330 crore), also had subscribers such as India Infrastructure Finance Company (UK) Ltd ($54 million), Bank of India (Rs 200 crore), Canara Bank (Rs 200 crore), Central Bank of India (Rs 200 crore), Andhra Bank (Rs 100 crore), Allahabad Bank (Rs 150 crore), Dena Bank (Rs 200 crore), Punjab and Sind Bank (Rs 150 crore), and UCO Bank (Rs 225.5 crore).
For DAMEPL, the project will entail an investment of Rs 2,885 crore with debt-equity ratio of 70:30. The metro rail link has to be operational by July 2010, before the Commonwealth Games
After the weekly's continued uptrend, the daily has turned down which can take it down upto 2915 or 2860 area with brief bounces and rallies. The more time it takes to trade these points will point to a correction but a quicker fall will put a question mark on this uptrend. So trade light on these points till the correction shows +ve div or a breakdown occurs below 2860.
Daily Market Outlook: 31 March 2009
After moving upwards for five consecutive trading sessions, as predicted on last Friday Indian equity markets lost steam and took a nosedive to close in negative zone. It was the US market that triggered the fall as the US government task force rejected the viability plans of General Motors and Chrysler. Asian markets also tumbled. Further the weak opening of European markets added to the woes. While Sensex shaded 480 points to close at 9568, Nifty shaded 130.50 points to close at 2978. Financial heavyweights like SBI, ICICI and HDFC were amongst the biggest losers as they erased almost all their last 4 days gains in a single session. Some positive stock last day that remain positive in midcaps are Opto Circuit, S.Kumar’s, ICSA, KSK, Chambal Fert, NFCL, Thermax and Bombay Dyeing.
On the sectoral front, except consumer durables, all other sectoral indices closed in the red. Bankex, metals and realty were the major culprits with steep. While banking sector suffered from renewed concern, metal lost the plot on account of expected decline in demand. Interestingly, major selling was seen in Sensex based counters rather than the madcap and small cap counters. Market breadth was negative with 1471 declines and 904 advances. Certain stocks that are looking positive are ChambalFert (above 43), NFCL (above 19), HPCL (above 265), EKC and Financial Tech. Auto stocks could also be bought as they still retain the positive bias.
NIFTY (2978.15)
Support : 2945 / 2920 / 2890 / 2865 / 2840
Resistance : 3040 / 3065 / 3090 / 3105 / 3140
SENSEX
Support : 9425 / 9335 / 9285
Resistance : 9805 / 9900 / 10045
NIFTY FUT (2988)
Support : 2955 / 2915 / 2860
Resistance : 3015 / 3045 / 3105
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 5.43% with flat volumes indicating not only unwinding of long positions but forming of fresh short positions too.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 2980,Sl Abv 3000,Tgt 2920-2870,
Sustain Above 3000,Buy with Sl Below 2980,Tgt 3070-3120.
POSITIONAL : Buy 50%NIFTY 2970 & other 50% 2940,Sl 2915,Tgt 3100
Buy OPTOCIRCUITS Above 85
Buy CHAMBALFERT Above 43
Buy SUNPHARMA Above 1110
Buy BRFL Above 145,Tgt 150/55,Sl 143
Buy TATAELEXSI Above 80,Tgt 84-86-92,Sl 79
Buy MARUTI Above 760,Tgt 775-790-830,Sl 740
Sell RELCAPITAL Below 335
Sell NTPC Below 185,Tgt 180/75/70,Sl 190
Sell SBIN(1022),Tgt 1010/1000/990,Sl Above 1040
Sell CIPLA Below 215,Tgt 210-205-195,Sl 220
Sell GAIL Below 235,Tgt 225-220-210,Sl 240
Sell M&M Below 370,Tgt 360-350-330,Sl 380
Sell WIPRO Below 240,Tgt 235-230-220,Sl 245
Buy TVSMOTORS April Above 22/23,Sl 21.4,Tgt 22.85/23.1/23.5/23.8/24 (Lot Size : 11800)
BHEL (1474) : Sell 1490/1500,Sl 1515,Tgt 1460/50/40/35
HDFCBK (945) : Sell 965/55,Sl 980,Tgt 940/30/20/10
RIL(1516) : Sell 1530/20,Sl 1540,Tgt 1495/80/50
Sell RPOWER April@ 103/01,Sl 104,Tgt 100/99.6/98.6/97.5/96.6/95.7/94.6/93.8 (Lot Size : 2000)
World Markets - Astrologically
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver
CRUDEOIL likely to make 1 more attempt for rise between 31st and 02nd April but in totality Crude Oil is looking weak till 07th April 2009. 2 Weekly close above US$ 51/ barrel will set higher targets of $67-$69 which will be achieved in coming weeks. Regarding Gold and Silver, we have already communicated 2-3 weeks back that till 25th March, both these metals will remain under pressure despite occasional minor rallies. Both GOLD and SILVER will try to stage come back early this week but after 31st March both Silver and Gold will turn weak for next 7-10 Days.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, Indian Rupee may remain strong against US Dollar till 31st March but after that volatility can be expected in which US Dollar will be slightly stronger against Indian Rupee.
US Markets
Astrologically, Both Nasdaq and Dow Jones are likely to bounce back after initial weakness on 30th March but most indicators favour decline on 01st April and weakness may continue for 1-2 Days. Despite weekly movements on both sides, US Markets are likely to be positive till 8th-10th of April despite occasional declines and rallies.
Okay guys (and gals ofcourse) I have some very important job to do tomorrow – that I have not done so far ever. Wify being out of the town – I have to go and pick my results of my kidoos from the school. To be on the safer side – I have prepared myself well. I have taken time to ask my kids the class and section so that I reach the right place and ask the results from the right teachers. Already having jitters and I know that the night will turn out to be as awful. I am sure no one will recognise me as their father as this is the first time. How I miss my wify. Okay here goes another round of practice to pick up results of my kidoos – straight face, don’t look bewildered, try to remain calm, the hand that shakes the most should remain in the pocket and ask for the class… walk confidently, smile at the teacher and don’t look at the report card in front of the teacher lest I do or say some thing stupid or act smart.
Well here I am – ready to give you another dose of technicals’. The day today was like that should have been accepted after a virtually nonstop rally of the markets for 11 straight days of rally. The force down was a kind of anticipated and everyone seems to have rushed for taking home the profits. Typical – of what was expected when the run down was expected to start. No one really knows for sure whether this will turn out to be a “Sucker's rally” – so no one is really taking a chance. Please do digest it that we have fallen on seemingly a lower volume. I mean today the volumes have been 117% of the last 50 day average. We have been clocking almost 150% last few days. Frankly even if we just set aside these and see the global cues we will get another good observation. We have fallen exactly in line with the global cues we got from the Asia. Over the week end I had already written that the US closed weak. The Asia also too the cues and opened weak – that became a stampede for the profits to be taken home rally and closed the Asian Indices 4% lower. Nikkei ended 4.53% in red, Hang Seng was down 4.7% and Strait Times down 4.15%. We closed 4.2% down on nifty and that is in line with the Asian Markets. The Europe is still open and presently in red. Past the mid session we see them around 3% down with no chance so far to move into red. FTSE is down 2.35%, Dax is down 3.5% and CAC is down 3.07%. US too has opened and has started the day firmly in red. Dow down 2.73%, Nasdaq down 2.77% in red and S&P down 2.76% in red. Too long a period for US to remain open so I will not try to predict where it will close but closing red is a fair bet especially with the news flow coming regarding the GM and blah blah…
Coming to our candles, we see a tall black candle that has really had the audacity of eating away 2 days of gains in a go. The Bollinger bands too have widened quite a bit. I will say again at the cost or repetition that We are still in the Narrow trading range and there has been no break out. The 5 EMA is trying to go below the 100 EMA and that would signal end of the road up for the short term. 20 EMA had just about crossed over the 50 EMA two days back and is still above it. The volumes are lower as I mentioned earlier. ADX trying to look down. MACD is still bullish but the divergence has reduced. The RSI has moved down from the overbought position and looks down – some would actually use this indication to sell and hold shorts. Slow Stochastic red line has come below the 80 line but the %D line is still in the overbought zone. Once again some would use this condition to sell and wait with the shorts. TRIX is still looking up and is around the highest we have seen in this bear markets so expect it to retract down taking the markets alongwith.
Let us see the Pivot data before I pack up and call it a day…
R3 3258 against 3191 yesterday
R2 3164
R1 3071
Pivot 3016 against 3095 yesterday
S1 2923
S2 2868
S3 2775 against 2999 yesterday
Projected High Range 3044 to 3118
Projected Low Range 3102 to 3028
Fib Projected High 3150
Fib Projected Low 2921
Next inevitable question is where do we go from here. I will lay it all bare for you to pick and choose.
- 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 2903 and 50% Fibonacci retracement is at 2840. So in the coming week we should see the markets touching atleast these points.
- The middle of Bollinger band is around the 2725. That can be the next place where we stop.
- Going purely by the trading range – 2611 should be the lowest point if we do not make fresh lows.
So very frankly looks like we are going down for some time. Best of luck to all who have been short – and I think you will have some more time before you should square off your positions.
Head is messed up from to much crap. The above Big Mouth Stocks would have worked well from the get go.
As discussed in previous post, today Nifty dropped 4.2%, hitting SELL target from 3050 to 2980. Recent daily uptrend can see a 38.2% fibo retracement level at 2904/2900. So for tomorrow, wait for small retracement and SELL at 3000 (with down trend confirmation) with stop loss at 3020 for target at 2950/2930. In the case of choppy session, try to avoid any new position and wait for a better trend.
Nifty :: We clearly indicate such kind of situation in our Friday post… Required healthy correction in extreme stretch overbought position. And it is.. Today Nifty made an Engulfing Bear Candle pattern.. Bearish during up move or near strong resistance.. Still mid term up move chart pattern intact up to 2760/2750.. Multiple support at lower level from 2864 to 2801.. Avoid selling at low or in gap down opening.. Our strategy for 31st March Sell at high (S.L 3005) Buy on deep (S.L 2796/2750).. Resistance for up move at 3000/3005/3055/3097.. Supports at 2900/2864/2850/2844/2832/2825/2801/2796…
Nice small commodity sell off or should I say correction (called it at 55 $ top) so, I take my credits because it was mostly US Steel, Joyg Mining etc. commodity stocks which sold off during monday "sell" session.
Perhaps it would be time for B upwave again, pretty much in every product including SPX, EurJpy and EurUsd. I don´t think we´re done yet, but likely B wave ZigZag ahead before C wave down comes. In most cases B wave can come pretty complex which takes time, so rest of the week might not be so exiting as monday was, at least for a few next days.
B wave comes most often 50 - 78.6% of wave A size. Perhaps 50% most often case. (in theory it can rarely be 110% from wave A with time & price).
I opened Eur-Usd long position from Asian market hours at 1.3190 and will I´ll leave it run now based for that oil chart plus inverse HS (bullish) pattern in Eur-Usd in 5 minute chart, leaving it ran with extreme tight stoploss at 1.3148.
It looks it broke now 1.3200 critical fib area without no problems. Be carefull with SPX 795-800 area - B wave might end there tomorrow, so, this wave is not a lot of fun and we do have quote a lot very sizy bear flags & pennants available in this market with daily signals, in fact so many of them that I hope my "final tsunami" will not come earlier as I thought, but I don´t think so, those diagonals looks very much as A waves also, meaning B wave corrective down.
1.3200 - 1.3220 tomorrow for european market hours as backtest could offer long setup for Eur-Usd, it´s more than likely monday bottom will be re-tested slightly above. 1.3213 is 50% from current setup because while writing this eur-usd ran allready to 1.3250 level. In fact we need to run much higher to get room to drop again for that smaller C oil wave also - at least my eur-usd work tells that for me in EW terms.
Btw. I updated some of those weekend charts later and will do more of them, individual equites charts by editing that same post, keeping them at the same place.
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