Its a difficult question to answer whether Sensex will breakout or not . But as shown in a chart some days back after 50 sessions of downtrend we have seen a rough 20-40 sessions of counter up phase so Sensex has enough time to decide the direction towards 11650/12500.
Stock specific moves will be seen till Sensex stays above the 10100 zone in coming sessions. T
Stocks to watchout for :
Glenmark recommended on declines around 255 and 220 can book completely at 350 zone.
Deccan chronicle gave a smart move frm 48 to 55 in the day , Century looks set for more slowly , NALCO did 1st tgt.
Many mid cap , small caps and strong out of index stocks have turned bullish in extreme short term and many have crossed the 10950 equivalent highs. So keep watch on stock specific trading opportunities with strict stops.
Aditya Birla Nuvo ... if trades above 664 can tgt 705-740 . ( low vol stock so watch for increasing vols )
ICICI Bank has resistance around 490-500. Trade could be short around 485-495 stop of 505 for a dip or wait for a crossover above 500 to tgt 540-560 .
Siemens above 335 can tgt 375 levels.
Punjab National Bank has good resistance at 518-525 zone short with stop of 532 for a small dip to 495 levels.
Alok could see a move to 24-25 if stays above 21 .
GE Shipping on sustaining 228 could tgt 245.
Keep a stop of 3-4 % from entry price and buy only if it sustains above alongwith the market trend.
SMALL and MID CAP FNO speculative stocks which are seeing positive built up on lower levels and can see a good jump up in coming days if markets sustain. Can move up from 5-25 % also.
ISPAT Inds , JP Hydro , Central Bank , GSPL .
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Although markets would remain under-pressure in next 1-4 mths of consolidation phase till Jan-march but companies in the broader market has seen the worse or the downsides are limited it seems coz of some of the following observation.
Promoters increasing stakes via different options :
Although around Jan-Sept there were many promoters who backed out of exercising preferential warrants and were ready to part with a 10 % subscription loss. This gave an indication of further weakness in many stocks but now the scenario seems to be turning around slowly.
It started of with buybacks which can be termed as good initiatives in bull markets but may actually be deceiving in bad markets. Although it may not have helped but a positive eps impact could be seen some quarters ahead in case of large buy backs.
The rights route /follow on public offers are good routes to generate capital for expansion. But now in weak markets this route is being used to increase stake in a simpler manner. As creeping acquisitions , preferential allotment etc are regulated by SEBI and have restrictions. Cash rich promoters can actually go beyond the 5 % limit of stake increase in creeping method.
Many promoters have been increasing stakes in their company which may be termed as a long term confidence in their business. Buybacks is the company and shareholders money whereas creeping acquisition , inside trades in larger method is a good indication as its personal interest of the promoter. LNT , Gitanjali , Man Inds , Hindalco , IVRCL etc saw some inside trades n many others check bseindia.com SAST disclosures.
So in the next 1-4 months the above things could give a good hint of promoter confidence and interest. Also some FII Swiss Finance Corporation was a buyer in many stocks as per bse bulk deals. Keep a watch on insider trading , bulk deals.
3099 is going to be very important now, and shouldnt break for the uptrend to continue.
breaking 3099, nifty may dip to as much as 3030-2960 levels.
now if 3099 holds, nifty will again blast up, and on crossing yesterday's high of 3178, nifty will also break its previous recent high of 3298.
so yes we r defntly at a crucial point, and all those who are taking positional trades now, are just hoping for moves, and no body is sure. so trade intraday untill things are clear.
We had a nice rally today after a gap up and it continued to the close in a nice and slow climb with occasional rest in between. But where do we go from here? There is plenty of supply on top and I guess todays rally was like jumping over a cliff with your best clothes on! :) This set up is a classic trap and is an illusion of well being. Sure,there is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is from an oncoming superfast train.
The Indian market opened gap-up note and continued to trade in positive zone and close in green zone .For coming session we can kiss 3240-3253 zone if nifty trade above 3260 we can see rally up to 3400 but 3254 will act as strong resistance we may see profit booking also at 3253 zone one can play with stop-loss.
After a reversal day recorded on Monday, October 27, a greater than 3% gain was recorded today (November 10). Does this provide the much needed confirmation for the start of a bull phase ?
Today's gain came with lower than average volume. This does not provide the neccessary confirmation. The gains should have come in with higher than average volume. In fact, a similar pattern was developing in the USA, and gains did not have volume confirmation.
The intermediate trend remains up. This is the trend that traders should be following. We should never anticipate turning points against momentum. This means, when the markets are moving up, we do not decide where the up trend will stop. We let the market tell us when it wants to reverse.
A bullish pattern seems to be developing in the Nifty. This is an inverted head and shoulder which has bullish implications.A close above 3240 will confirm this pattern. A similar pattern was under development when the Nifty was in the 4200 - 4500 range, but confirmation did not come in and the pattern was eventually cancelled. If this pattern foes get confirmed, the targets may be 4000+. Now, once again, we let the market do the talking & the thinking.
My point is: while momentum favors the bulls, go with long positions. Avoid going short. When short term trend turns down, then exit long positions.
The Indian market opened gap-up note and continued to trade in positive zone and close in green zone .For coming session we can kiss 3240-3253 zone if nifty trade above 3260 we can see rally up to 3400 but 3254 will act as strong resistance we may see profit booking also at 3253 zone one can play with stop-loss.After a reversal day recorded on Monday, October 27, a greater than 3% gain was recorded today (November 10). Does this provide the much needed confirmation for the start of a bull phase ?
Today's gain came with lower than average volume. This does not provide the neccessary confirmation. The gains should have come in with higher than average volume. In fact, a similar pattern was developing in the USA, and gains did not have volume confirmation.
The intermediate trend remains up. This is the trend that traders should be following. We should never anticipate turning points against momentum. This means, when the markets are moving up, we do not decide where the up trend will stop. We let the market tell us when it wants to reverse.
A bullish pattern seems to be developing in the Nifty. This is an inverted head and shoulder which has bullish implications.A close above 3240 will confirm this pattern. A similar pattern was under development when the Nifty was in the 4200 - 4500 range, but confirmation did not come in and the pattern was eventually cancelled. If this pattern foes get confirmed, the targets may be 4000+. Now, once again, we let the market do the talking & the thinking.
My point is: while momentum favors the bulls, go with long positions. Avoid going short. When short term trend turns down, then exit long positions.
Sell JSWSTEEL below 306, Target: 301,294 SL: 309
Sell ICICIBANK below 463, Target: 456,450 SL: 470
Sell JPASSOCIAT below 92.5, Target: 89, 86 SL: 95
Buy LT above 930, Target: 938,946 SL: 925
Sell SUZLON below 66, Target: 63, 60 SL: 68.5
Sell Nifty futures below 3120, Target: 3090, 3060 SL: 3135
Buy Nifty futures above 3060 Target: 3080, 3100 SL: 3045
Sell Nifty3200CE below 130, Target: 110, 90 SL: 136
Sell Reliance1290PA below 80, Target: 74, 68 SL: 84
Note: Buy Nifty futures and LT on rebound once it makes a low for the day. If you made money from our calls then join our premium service.
Markets in Asia are soft due to weak global cues.Resistance of 3220-40 may not be tested today and support at 3085 should lend support failing which markets may retest 3020-2990 levels. Watch this level closely for getting out of longs as markets maynot hold 2860 this time if it ventures in that territory. Trade with caution in small trades to allow market to make up its mind and then follow the trend. Remember this month will be traders delight and strictly follow the trend , not your heart....happy trading..CHEERS.
Sell JSWSTEEL below 306, Target: 301,294 SL: 309
Sell ICICIBANK below 463, Target: 456,450 SL: 470
Sell JPASSOCIAT below 92.5, Target: 89, 86 SL: 95
Buy LT above 930, Target: 938,946 SL: 925
Sell SUZLON below 66, Target: 63, 60 SL: 68.5
Sell Nifty futures below 3120, Target: 3090, 3060 SL: 3135
Buy Nifty futures above 3060 Target: 3080, 3100 SL: 3045
Sell Nifty3200CE below 130, Target: 110, 90 SL: 136
Sell Reliance1290PA below 80, Target: 74, 68 SL: 84
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