The Indian market opened on flat note trade with extreme choppy session and close with positive note . For coming session on daily chart nifty had form doji pattern .If Nifty trade above 4713 it likely to test 4744-4769 and trading below 4633 levels it likely to test 4609-4588 zones
RIL has shown some phenomenal run in past few trading sessions from the bear bashing on bad results posted to a levels back to almsot 2.1K
So whats next
Chart we can easily see a double top formation around 2096 Levels and i have highlighted the Negative divergence in RSI also
SO for Bull run to continue 2096 should be taken out and sustained for a tgt of 2116 2148 and 2175 in extremly short run or else go short with a tgt of 2044 2011 1991 if 2096 is not taken out.
Triangles are consolidation patterns, they coil inside the support and resistance zone, which develops potential thrust. When they give breakout or breakdown then they tend to push the prices to there targets due to the thrust developed inside the pattern.
In the above Decending Triangle, the pattern formed with perfect harmonic waves as shown in the image. When a pattern forms with harmonics, they tend to take support and resistance at the Fibonacci values. which will be against our present trade. So when do we trigger the trade in such case?
1. Check for the convergence of the harmonic patterns.
2. If the Fibonacci levels are near to support/resistance line price +/- Filter then move the trigger price just above or below the Fibonacci levels
3. If the fibonacci level is far from the support/resistance line +/- filter then watch the price action near the fibonacci levels carefully. Move the stop loss near to the fibonacci levels. If it is broken with big wide range bars or gap appers in that levels then our stop loss wont trigger and trade is intact.
4. If the price is bouncing from those levels, then the stop loss gets triggered and in this case also we exit in profits.
a) if the Fibonacci support level is taken out decisively then our trade gets triggered and we get profits.
b) If the price is reversed then our stop loss order gets triggered and we get take the profits at the targets of the harmonic pattern.
In the Chambal fert case, Fibonacci convergence has occurred at 54.80 levels, which is very near to our triangle breakdown price. So we move the trade trigger price below the Fibo level, that is at 54.50 level, and put the stoploss order at 55.90 levels. In this case price reversed from the pattern and stop loss order gets triggered and took the profits at 1st and 2nd targets of the ABCD pattern that is at 57.10 and 57.70 levels.
Stock Chart Pattern - OnMobile Global
Before we take a look at the stock chart pattern of OnMobile Global, here are some fundamental facts:-
Arvind Rao (ex-McKinsey) and Mouli Raman (ex-Infosys) set up the company 7 years back, supported by a private equity fund. They had an IPO in Jan 2008 at a price of Rs 440, and are the leading Indian company in the mobile value-added services space.
Recently, revenue-sharing deals were signed with two large telecom operators - Vodafone, and Telefonica, Spain - that will provide their telecom products access to nearly 35 new global markets.
Top line has grown from Rs 40 Crores to Rs 400 Crores in the last 5 years. By 2012, it is expected to grow to Rs 800 Crores. Profits have kept pace; so have cash flows from operations. Proving that small, fast growing companies can generate positive cash flows if the business model is right and the management is experienced and competent.
Low debt, but no dividend so far. Promoter holding is 57%; FIIs hold another 15%; public holding is less than 12%. No wonder the stock is trading at a P/E of 37. For more details, read this article.
The 2 years bar chart pattern of OnMobile Global seems to be taking a well-deserved rest after a splendid rally:-
The stock saw huge volumes on listing and quickly moved up to 745 in Apr '08 while the Sensex was in the firm grip of bears. It soon succumbed to the bear onslaught and dropped all the way to 200 in Nov '08.
A sideways consolidation concluded with an intra-day low of 185 in Feb 24 '09. A progressive up move with frequent sideways consolidation in a step-like fashion - a sign of a new bull market - took the stock to a high of 682 on July 24 '09.
Here the chart pattern met a resistance zone between 630-690. A small rounding-top bearish formation has brought down the stock to a close of 540 today.
Notice how the stock took support at its 50 day EMA in May '09 and Jul '09? It is likely to find support again at the medium-term moving average. Should it break below it, the 200 day EMA may provide a stronger support.
The current levels of the two moving averages correspond to previous tops made by the stock. Previous tops also tend to act as support levels.
The MACD is still positive, but below its signal line. The technical indicators are saying that the correction may not be over yet.
Volumes have supported the recent up move, though the volume bars are not clearly visible in the chart due to the huge volumes on listing. The RSI, MFI and slow stochastic had all entered overbought zones, and have now dropped down. The slow stochastic is already below the 50% level and the %K line is below the %D line.
The call rates and ARPUs (Average revenue per user) of mobile operators have been going southwards for some time, while the number of users are steadily growing. Mobile value-added services is the next growth area for telecom operators worldwide. OnMobile is perfectly positioned to reap the benefits of this market trend.
Bottomline? The stock of OnMobile Global can be considered for addition in the portfolio of long-term investors. The stock chart pattern shows the zone between 400-500 could provide a better entry point.
No comments:
Post a Comment