NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Not much time after the Mumbai seminar so just a quick chart.

Supports are placed around 15050-15100 as shown on the chart and bounce backs to face resistance at 15600.

A move below 15050 opens up to 14600-14250 zone.

Continue to be stock specific with strict stoplosses.

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our Friday post Nifty take support near 4538 and bounce beck from strong support but finally break support and heading towards next strong support 4420.. Made an Belt Hold Line bear candle .. Still Inverted H&S pattern valid but now onwards put long stop loss near 4250 or slightly below 4150 with closing basis in next week.. For 10th Aug watch one level 4485 below 4485 momentum seems down, above it up.. Watch first strong support 4465 and below it next strong support zone 4400 to 4420.. Below 4400 Nifty may be slid up to 4326/4250.. But till then for 10th Aug up to 4400 our strategy buy in deep (S.L 4400) Sell at high (S.L 4629).. Resistance for up move 4504/4560/4580/ 4591/4629.. Supports at 4465/4420/4368/4326/4250..

(Inder Bhatia)

SELL PATELENG BELOW 379 TGT 371>365 STOPLOSS 386.20

The Indian market opened on gap down on weak global market and close with deep red zone . For coming session if nifty trade below 4461 zones it likely to test 4412-4390 level on down side before any bounces .On the upside 4560-4586 zone will act resistances for the day .

SELL BAJAJAUTO BELOW1160 TGT 1137>1099 STOPLOSS 1185

Last week sensex close down 3.3% and nifty fell by 3.34% respectively, saw selling pressure at higher level around 4700 levels and close near 20dma support zone .If nifty close below 4469 level we can test 4414 that is 50 dma and closing below 4300 zones we can drift lower side around 4234-4119 zone .On the upside key level to watch 4560 on closing basis than we can test 4610-4663 zones .On the above daily chart we had shown three top form by nifty but same time rsi had made lower low top that is bearish pattern as shown on chart 1-2-3 that showing clean negative divergences on chart .Friday sell off put indicator turned bearish zone like parabolic-sar ,slow stochastic is coming down. Infact on weekly chart nifty and sensex was approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire downturn that zone will act as strong resistances .



(S S Cheema)

Actually one does not call them crazy – it is so very understood by everyone who has been in the markets for whatever time that they are crazy and they have a mind of their own. All the same the desire to tame them would be aim of anyone who dreams. See for example the way the markets behaved last two days. they followed the dictum of the candles to the core and then stopped just a needle bit short of turning the indicators bearish. Ofcourse I will be substantiating whatever I say – but for the time being suffice to say – they showed arrogance inspite of being poised for a fall more severe that what we witnessed. We once again stand at crossroads and stare at the way to go. There is a way this side and the other. I have to choose the path of the markets otherwise I will be lost in the forest filled with everyone to take a snipe at what is mine. I have deliberated on what I should put across this weekend. I even thought about skipping this one update and write when there would be more clarity about the direction. It is never easy to say sorry in the hindsight.

The markets went the way they were supposed to – fall they did… The Harami played exactly as in a text book – but then why am I afraid? Am I afraid because of the way the US and the European markets fanned out – closing the trades for the weekend? Yes and maybe. Fact remains that they were not supposed to close strong – it could be the head of a snake making one attempt to surprise – the last bit of effort to show that it will dare – or it may be the strike with vengeance that can take us to the new heights. Whatever it would be it is time to be on our toes and keep a watchful eyes – the markets can go either side with strength not giving any time for us to think and act.

Coming to the global cues the markets started in Asia as flat to green but kept going down to close at – Nikkei – the only oasis of green at 0.23% up, Hang Seng down 2.51% and Strait Times down 2.05%. Europe too opened red but by mid day it was clear that the US cues are overtly positive and that led to a sharp rally with the markets ending comfortably green with FTSE at 0.87%, Fax up 1.66% and Cac up 1.25%. As the two major areas of concern – namely the housing and employment came better than expected the US rallied right from the beginning to close – DOW up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.37% and S&P up 1.34%. So it goes without saying that the global cues are looking good.

Now here is the trouble area – ideally the fallout of a confirmed Harami should be continued selling pressure. Yesterday panned out to be the second day of selling – ideally beginning of many to come. Now the 3 EMA line – it is just shy of crossing below the 15 EMA at 4537. If this crossover does not happen then it will be a signal to build up longs and square off shorts. Volumes again fell to 84% average of last 50 day traded. ADX has just generated a sell signal with a –DI crossover of +DI. MACD is one point short of generating a sell signal. RSI is one point short of generating a sell signal. Slow Stochastic is already in a sell mode.

As far as the options data is concerned the call build up has quickly filled out the available calls with the Put call ratio dropping below 1 to 0.97. remember it was 1.1 on Thursday? The data of the main strike prices is as in the table above. The call build up is at 4700, 4800 and 5000. So basically as per the option data the fight between the bulls and bears is on and no one knows where the market will go. The levels of 4700 on the upside and 4500 & 4300 important levels on the lower side are important. The 4500 level is already in money.

So all in all the global cues are bullish. The technicals that I follow are either already bearish or turning bearish. If these indicators take support at these levels then a strong bounce back can happen – but if they breach these levels then we are on our downward journey. Options are as of now on sidelines only – will give pauses at 4700 levels on the upside and 4300 on the lower side.

Indicator	Bullish/Bearish	Sell/Buy Signal	Nifty level at signal	Points gained/lost since (4481)	Remarks
Harami	Bearish	sell / 04 Aug	4681	+ 200	Harami confirmed as bearish
315 Strategy	-	-	-	-	20 points short of generating sell signal
ADX	Bearish	sell / 7 Aug	4481	+/- 0
MACD	-	-	-	-	1 point short of generating sell signal
RSI	-	-	-	-	1 point short of generating sell signal
Slow Stochastic	Bearish	Sell / 05 Aug	4694	+213
Options	Neutral

One may either sit on the sidelines for a day or be positional short at the moment. For the day sell below 4574 go long above 4574. For those positional short keep stoploss 4676 and if you are long do not hold below 4551. Best of luck to every one. Whish you all make money…

Axit D Shah

Hello Friends,

NifTiee Close 4481 & intra day levels :
Supports : 4444 / 4422 / 4385
Resistance : 4515 / 4545 /4585

In our last weeks articles we have updated & alerted that Nifty need to close above 4700 for minimum 2 days to confirm the bullish uptrends or profit booking may come, but how ever it did not managed to close above that & we saw the profit booking or fall like a monster. Also we revised the Trail stop loss for all long postions to 4444 & on friday Nifty spot tested 4464 levels & managed to close at 4481 levels.

So still the level of 4444 is not breached on closing basis & from here we may see some technical bounce or can term as Dead Cat bounce after such monsterous fall. Hope people reading this blog regularly must have benefitted by booking profits at higher levels & buying near important trend supports. Last week buyers are buried live at higher levels & in this dead cat bounce sellers will be buried live. The main pain comes to the small trader / investor who have less amount of money & still they trade in derivaties for short term greed. We like to advise all class to people to know the derivatives term & then use it to hedge your portfolio against the indices. WARREN BUFFETT TRULY SAID " Derivatives are Financial Weapons for Massive Wealth Destruction " Such a legendry person is alerting the world but still people dont follow the legends & end up loosing capital & destory wealth. Anyways after lot many errors if a person opens his eyes then this is 1st positive achievements.

In just 2 days of fall we have received lot many calls from people round the country as many are trapped at higher levels & mainly in derivatives as people enter positions for intra day gains & become short term investors as they are unable to sell at higher levels despite warnings from us. Anyways next week we can see some dead cat bounce in the markets due to testing important trend reversal levels. But fresh buying can only come above 4700 levels on closing basis till then the rally can be termed as relief rally only.

Provisional Fund Flow Figures Rupees Crores for 07 August 2009 :

Fii -1051
Dii +414
Fii(deri)-792
IndexFutures -681
Index Options +9
Stock Futures -231
Stock Options +111

(*M J Akhtar*)

(SVShah)

The market did open flat to negative and once again we seen decent profit booking and shorting since morning and nifty could not hold above its immediate resistance level of 4584 (5 EMA ) and as expected that breach and sustain below 4550 we will see another round of selling and finally market closed below 4500 with broken the 20 EMA.Next week market can see some more selling pressure towards 4420 mark which is main hope for the bulls in this week and that is also 50 SMA and from this level a smart and technical bounce back is expected due to bargain buying or short recovery that can lift nifty again towards 4550-4585 in the upside as of now.If global cues remains helpful and if there is no bad news from political front then we may save the level of 4420, but if we are failed to save and then 4325-and then 4230 is not ruled out in the downside.

NIFTY (4481.4)

Resistance : 4525 / 4555 / 4590 / 4640

Support : 4460 / 4435 / 4370 / 4330

SENSEX (15160.24)

Resistance : 15405 / 15655

Support : 15005 / 14935 / 14455

NIFTY FUT (4481)

Resistance : 4535 / 4585 / 4625 / 4655

Support : 4455 / 4435 / 4380 / 4340

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 3.12% with 15% decreasing volumes indicating forming of shorts positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Monday,Opening Is Flat To Down,

Buy NIFTY Above 4525,Sl Below 4505,Tgt 4560/4595/4610/4640

Sell NIFTY Below 4485,Sl Above 4505,Tgt 4450/4415/4400/4370

SELL

SBIN (1743),Sl Above 1760,Tgt 1705/1690

BOB Below 420,Sl 425,Tgt 415/10/05

CIPLA Below 270,Sl 275,Tgt 265/६०

FUTURES

BUY

ONGC(1138)@ 1125,Sl 1115,Tgt 1145/50/55/60 (BTST If Closes Only Above 1155)

REL(1147)@ 1130/35,Sl 1120,Tgt 1150/55/60/65

IOC@ 555,Sl 545,Tgt 561/64/68/75/80/86/92/97+ [Lot Size : 600]

SELL

RIL(1996)@ 2025/20,Sl 2050,Tgt 1980/70/60

TATAMOTORS@ 415,Sl 420,Tgt 411/09/05/01/397/93/85+ [Lot Size : 850]

(ss)

One of my friend is worried about one point: when almost all the world indices have taken out their June highs, why not us? Well, I look at it this way - the S&P 500 has gained 52% since March this year and the Nifty has gained 84% ! And in the process, Nifty is almost at its July -August 2008 level while the S&P is well below its July - August 2008 level (chart on left above). So to "catch up" with us the S&P needs to gain a further 30% from these levels, and if it does that then we will too!?!? he he he.

Nifty Intraday Chart - 15 mins:

Nifty continued to be bearish on Friday lossing 100 points and also closing at the day's low. But importatntly, Nifty closed almost at the support levels of 4460, which was very crucial for bulls. Now the trading range formed from 24th July to 29th July would become good resistance.

Nifty Chart - Hourly:

Nifty formed an Ascending Broadening Wedge, and closed near he support of this Ascending Broadening Wedge on Friday. Taking cues from global markets, I am not expecting a breakdown from this wedge tomorrow, and there may be a partial pull back from this support levels.

On the higher side, 4530 - 4540 levels may give good resistance. Nifty has to stay above this levels to regain the strength. Above which it may go up to 4584 levels. 4610 - 4620 may be next major resistance for the bulls.

On the lower side, if Nifty breaks 4460 level with confirming volumes the it may go up to 4390 levels. Nifty my become weak when it breaks this 4460 levels, if it happens we may see down trend for next few days. Below 4390 levels 4360 is the next support.