NEWSLETTER

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on positive note and trade in positive territory through out the session and close with hand some gains. For coming session nifty is heading towards resistances zone near 2875-2905 we can see some profit booking. On the lower side 2801- 2778 levels will act as support zone.

(raman)

BUY Unitech Stop Loss 26 Target 38

BUY Reliance Capital Stop Loss 398 Target 460

BUY IDFC Stop Loss 52 Target 71

BUY IFCI Stop Loss 17 Target 22

(Lee)

Those who dont know about fractals or if you missed my earlier call on the same, please go and read the fractal call I made in September before the big plunge -> GO

Okay now coming to situation now...I have posted the chart with the fractal outline below. Its self explanatory and it should be fairly easy to see if the moves are playing out as forecasted. Till date I was looking at the fractal but still the moves were not clear enough but with recent price action, I think we are close.

The other thing I find worth to mention here is when we hit the recent bottom last week, I would have covered but I was looking for lower since the fractal suggested the same...Unfortunately market always acts the way that is least expected. So shorts are now squeezed and retail and TV analysts seem to have gotten bullish again. I think we are very close to another short term top right here. I will be watching today's and tomorrow's action closely.

The Bottom Line - Until we go above 3150, I will remain bearish.

(Ilango)

Nifty has rallied from 2662 to 2855 in two days leaving two gaps and has come close to the most critical pivot of last 12 weeks at 2860. In the process, it has now closed above the 50DMA(2840) and likely resistances above at 2880 to 2910 area.
There are some supports here at 2805-2820 and then at 2770-2790 levels. Any fall below 2770, may reverse the short term trend.
If we are near the end of a 2nd wave of the 5th down, we should start the fall from tomorrow.
If we are in the "e" wave of the 4th up, we might rally further up with minor dips.
Weekly trend is down but the daily trend is up. Trade cautiously & light.

S2

S1

Pivot

R1

R2

2,766

2,810

2,833

2,876

2,899

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our yesterday post Nifty facing strong resistance near 2812/2828.. After breakout its firmly move up without any resistance.. Now for 29^th Jan watch strong resistance zone in between 2900 to 2960.. Our strategy for 29^th Jan If Nifty open in between strong resistance sell at high (S.L 2961) buy on deep. Required small correction for further up move. Resistance for up move 2900/2933/2936/2960.. Supports 2827/2820/2780/2765/2732..

(As per chart this seven leg corrective up move of g last leg target in between 3200 to 3300 as far as stay above last bottom which plotted as f )

(SVShah)

Bulls would wish to carry the momentum to the next trading session. However, trading might turn more volatile ahead of Today F&O expiry be Cautious on higher levels. We see good rally last trading day but there has been no FII participation so the rally is unlikely to sustain at higher levels. Sensex heavyweights should propel the market up in the next few days…analysis remains unchanged and volatility at its best.

+ Signals of market bottoming out at around 2600 on Nifty and 9000 on Sensex are becoming more clearer now. We were expecting 2620 over last two weeks and Nifty hit low of 2640 approximately and bounced back.

NIFTY (2849.5) : Closed Above 50DMA 2840

Support : 2820 / 2790 / 2750 / 2730

Resistance : 2870 / 2885 / 2920 / 2955

SENSEX (9257)

Support : 9190-50 / 9115 / 8975

Resistance : 9320-35 / 9415 / 9550

NIFTY FUT (2847)

Support : 2825 / 2800 / 2755

Resistance : 2875 / 2900

BANK NIFTY (4342.25)

Support : 4300 / 4245 / 4145

Resistance : 4400 / 4460

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) down with decreasing volumes indicating short covering.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile due to expiry.

On Thursday ,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2850,Sl Below 2835,Tgt 2870-2885-2910-2935,

Sustain Below 2830,Sell with Sl Above 2845,Tgt 2800-2780-2745-2730.

Buy BOB Above 245/50

Buy ABAN Above 480,Tgt 505-520,Sl 465

Buy SBIN (1112),Sloss Below 1095,Tgt 1135/1145+

Buy BAJAJAUTO Above 460,Tgt 470-480-485,Sl 455

Buy HEROHONDA Above 870,Tgt 880-895-915,Sl 860

Buy NTPC Above 190,Tgt 195-200-205,Sl 185

Sell ROLTA Below 85,Tgt 83-80-75,Sl 87

Sell MARUTI Below 520,Tgt 505-485-450,Sl 530

Sell CMC Below 290,Tgt 285-280-270,Sl 295

Buy ABAN Fut Sl 440,Tgt 485-500

Buy SAIL (81.25) Fut Above 80,Tgt 83/85.5/87.7/90

LNT (671.4) : Buy @ 655/60,Sl 650,Tgt 675/690

RCOM (166.4) : Buy @ 159/162,Sl 157,Tgt 165/70/75

REL (556.45) : Buy @ 525/35,Sl 520,Tgt 560/65/75/90 / Position Long Hold With Sl 505

Buy BHARTITELE (653.6) Above 650,Tgt 665/80+,Sl 640

Buy HINDLEVER (259.05) Around 257/60,Tgt 265/75+,Sl 250

Buy ICICIBANK (408.05) Around 400,Tgt 420/445+,Sl 390

Buy RPL (86.1) Around 84/85,Tgt 90/95,Sl 80

Buy Cairn Fut above 175

Buy AUROPHARMA Jan @ 160/63,Sl 156,Tgt 165/167/169/171.6/173.3 (Lot Size 700)

Sell GUJALKALI Jan @ 67/65,Sl 69,Tgt 64.7/63.4/62.8/62.1/61.5/60.2/59.3 (Lot Size 1400)

S S Cheema

Yes I mean it – if we say that it is a bear market then we have to at some stage take the upswing with a pinch of salt and decide where do we go from here? and perhaps when do we go – wherever it is. Firstly I am glad that out of the two scenarios listed out the markets have recovered for whatever reasons and we have not really broken the support to fall down in a spiral for far lower levels. What will affect the markets today? Firstly, fuel price slash – petrol down Rs 5/-, Diesel down Rs 2/- and LPG down by Rs 25/-. It will bring cheer as this directly affects the retail, inflation and morale.The second is the global cues that remain positive. Then there is the matter of expiry and rollover – that at the moment seems healthy. Fourthly there is the corporate results that are mixed and finally there is this problem of job layoffs. There is another stimulus that we actually missed out – the govt not reducing the interest rates of any kind – but why so? It was aptly put across by one of the commentator on the idiot box – a man went to the doctor and the doctor said there there is nothing wrong with you at the moment so no medicine is required. So inspite of the man (we) thinking that a rate cut (medicine) is required – the doctor (govt) does not think so – atleast till it sees the effect of the measures already taken. That was what had begun this rally. I will try now to give levels to this so that if we have to be cautious then we know where are the potential hurdles. The first major hurdle is just around the corner at 2936 and the second hurdle is at 3150. SO if you have to take the negative views with puts or sell futures – then these are the two levels that you have to watch out for – then we will again start with the debate of how much down we go.

If you see the chart of yesterday we see that inspite of opening positive there was no real direction for the markets till mid session. It was then that the 14 EMA (that I use) was clearly left below the 3 min line and it climbed. It hovered around the R1 levels to move up with momentum and break the R2 and end between the R2 and R3 levels. Both the pivot and the R3 are out of the chart you see. Today is the expiry – if we open gap up like we are likely too – except some selling pressure – especially if we open between R2 and R3 levels. If below R1 or pivot –then the climb may be through the entire session.

As far as the global cues are concerned – Europe ended well and at almost the highest levels of the day. FTSE up 2.4%. DAX up 4.52% and CAC up 4.11%. It was US that seemed very jubilant Dow up 2.46%, Nasdaq up 3.55% and S&P up 3.36%. This can be a month after a long time that – on monthly basis US closes positive (Can – as of now it is still negative by a small percentage point)

As far as the candles go - We have two good white candles and wee are confidently away from the lower edge of the Bollinger band this time over. On ADX the DI+ is above the DI- and that is good – but unfortunately the ADX does not lend too much strength to the upmove. MACD still is with negative divergence and like I have been saying that though it is still negative – this time over the divergence was really fairly low. RSI seems good today. Slow Stochastic is out of the oversold territory – but will signal reversal only after it reaches the overbought territory. TRIX is not looking down with the same vengeance it was some time back – so it too may give us a breather. Bottom line – if you were long – remain long.

Okay too the Pivot data now…

R3 2945 against 2869 yesterday
R2 2913
R1 2881
Pivot 2823 against 2744 yesterday
S1 2791
S2 2733
S3 2701 against 2619 on yesterday
Projected High Range 2852 to 2897
Projected Low Range 2813 to 2768
Fib Projected High 2879
Fib Projected Low 2740

See the Pivot move up by a good jump? Just for your info. On Nifty advances were 725, declines 440 and unchanged 62 with AD ratio 1.647727. FIIs were still selling in our markets worth 217.32 Cr but DIIs bought 601 Cr worth. So here you are – ready for the day? China and Taiwan markets are closed today.

Watch this space after the market opens for some advise on Options…

Manas

2 strong upmove sessions, so whats next?

well, today's closing would hold key for further moves in nifty.

1 imp level to watch is 2862 - 2870 where nifty will face big resistence.

a closing above this level can take nifty further up till 2930 levels.

however closing below this level, and the way we close today will give hopes to bears again, and some downmove can be expected.

For Intraday - supp at 2818-2797-2765 resistence at - 2870-2889

(STOCKSTAR)

INDEX GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2840 SL 2777 TARGET 2880/2940
SELL NF BELOW 2840 SL 2880 TARGET 2777/2730

STOCKSGAME-
BUY ACC ABOVE 495 SL 485 TARGET 505/515
BUY ANSALINFRA ABOVE 25 SL 24 TARGET 26/27
BUY AXISBANK ABOVE 422 SL 412 TARGET 432/442
BUY BHARATFORGE ABOVE 79 SL 76 TARGET 83/86
BUY EDUCOMP ABOVE 1775 SL 1725 TARGET 1825/1875
BUY ESSAROIL ABOVE 77 SL 74 TARGET 80/83
BUY GAIL ABOVE 202 SL 198 TARGET 206/210
BUY GESHIP ABOVE 165 SL 160 TARGET 170/175
BUY HDFC ABOVE 1505 SL 1465 TATGET 1545/1585
BUY HDFCBANK ABOVE 915 SL 895 TARGET 935/955
BUY LT ABOVE 670 SL 650 TARGET 690/710
BUY M&M ABOVE 283 SL 273 TARGET 293/303
BUY MCDOWELL ABOVE 675 SL 665 TARGET 685/695
BUY PATELENG ABOVE 150 SL 145 TARGET 155/160
BUY PNB ABOVE 395 SL 380 TARGET 410/435
BUY RNRL ABOVE 52 SL 50 TARGET 54/56
BUY TCS ABOVE 510 SL 500 TARGET 520/530
BUY UNITECH 31 SL 30 TARGET 32/33
BUY IDEA ABOVE 46 SL 44 TARGET 48/50
SELL TTML BELOW 22.50 SL 23.50 TARGET 21.50/20.50
SELL MARUTI BELOW 520 SL 530 TARGET 510/500
SELL BALARAMCHINI BELOW 54 SL 56 TARGET 52/50

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex manages to continue to its pullback move beyond 9k. In the triangle breakout pattern we had been discussing the importance of volume support and a large price action to confirm the moves beyond the lines.

Earlier we saw a move beyond the upper trendline of the triangle and then lower but without adequate volume and large price action support. So a clarity on the trend should emerge with the above two points only till then such flip-flop moves should continue.

In short term 9400-9450 is an important resistance which is the recent tops. Sustaining above which the index would test the breakdown line.

Stocks to watchout for :

GMR infra

The stock has been holding up arnd the level 75-78 irrespective of market moves ( promoters increasing stake) . If stays above 78.5 could test 85-88.

Titan Inds

If sustains above 955 could touch 980-1020 in short term. Seems a small breakout possible in short term.

Glenmark Pharma

After giving a technical breakdown below 200-220 the stock has cracked towards 130-140 zone.

Technically the stock gave a major breakout in 2006 where in the range was 110 to 180 odd for a long period of time.

So the next important technical support comes at 110 odd zone ( below which no support ). Risky players can buy in parts on dips at 140 and 120 for a bounce back tgt of 180.

Reliance Inds

The stock could not break below 1020-1060 zones on the downside and is now back to testing the upper trendline of the triangle which comes around 1325-1340 zone in near term.

Should see resistance around that zone risky day traders can short closer to it for a pullback dip.

(ss)

Nifty Futures pulls back for the second day to reach the resistance band 2850+. Tomorrow being the settlement day, it will add some more spice to this interesting set up.