newsletter

(Ilango)

Possibility-1:-
Nifty having completed the C.4 wave at 3147, has resumed its last leg of the downtrend. If C.5 is 0.6182 times C.1, then the target is 2241. If C.5 equals C.1, then the target down is 1682.




Possibility-2:-
Nifty on its Major "B" wave (Correcting the "A" wave - 6357 to 2253)has completed the internal "a" up from 2503/2570 to 3147 and has commenced the "b" of the "B" which can retrace 61.82% or 100%(as in flat) or more(as in irregular) and then commence the "c" up of the "B".



In Conclusion:-
Both are possibilities and there may be others too. That is the nature of unpredictable correctives. But the most important fact is that "It is down" in both accounts. One of the most effective way to trade the correctives is to trade by the channels coupled with some TA indicators such as stochastics and macd.



(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on positive note but drift lower as news disclosure by satyam chairman that the company had inflated its earnings over the past few years market ended in deep red zone .For coming session if nifty trade below 2880 it can test 2773 levels on the other side 2979 zone will act as resistances zone

(drjcshah)

CORRECTION---
IN ICICI strategy is neutral (not long).

rupeshydalal

NIFTY FUTURE

ABOVE 2914 TARGET 2944-2982-3013
BELOW 2897 TARGET 2862-2817-2802

MARKETCALLS VIEW ON NIFTY TODAY :
Due to Satyam episode the whole market pulled down. Still on next day Sebi could not take any proper decision on satyam. Nifty will be heavily volatile, my advise is sit away in 1st hour of market. Nifty is having medium support of 2802. If nifty has to close above this level otherwise you may see nifty at 2600-2500 levels in coming days.

Sell HDFC below 1603 SL 1631 Target 1575-1561
Sell INFOSYS below 1164 SL 1180 Target 1147-1131
Sell JSWSTEEL below 234 SL 244 Target 226-218
Sell MARUTI below 560 SL 570 Target 552-543
buy NTPC above 173 SL 168 Target 175-177

(SVShah)

NSE INDEX (C-2920.40)

Resistance : 2960 / 2985 / 3005 / 3040 / 3085 / 3150 / 3250

Support : 2885 / 2865 / 2835 / 2805 / 2725

BSE SENSEX (C-9586.88)

Resistance : 9860 / 10205 / 10815

Support : 9510-Weak / 9240 / 8890

NIFTY FUTURE (C-2914.10)

Resistance : 2980 / 3080 / 3145 / 3250

Support : 2880-Weak / 2815 / 2715

BANK FUTURE (C-4970.75)

Resistance : 5110 / 5290 / 5610

Support : 4790 / 4610

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 4.07% with 58% increasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions and forming of aggressive short positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade negative.

On the Friday ,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 2950, Sl Above 2970,Tgt 2920-2885-2860-2820-2710-2645,

Sustain Above 2970,Buy with Sl Below 2950,Tgt 2995-3025-3050-3070-3150.

INTRADAY

Buy INFOSYS Above 1195-1200

Sell NTPC Below 172,Tgt 168-165-160,Sl 175

Sell SIEMENS Below 300,Tgt 295-290-285,SL 305

Sell TATASTEEL Below 230,Tgt 220/215,Sl 235

TATA POWER (795) Sell with Sloss Above 810,Tgt 780-765

Sell CANBANK Below 200,Tgt 190-175-150,Sl 215

Sell HEROHONDA Below 770,Tgt 760-740-705,Sl 780

Sell ITC Below 165,Tgt 160-155-140,Sl 170

Sell M&M Below 305,Tgt 290-280-245,Sl 310

Sell STER Below 300,Tgt 280-255-205,Sl 310

Sell VSNL Below 505,Tgt 485-465-410,Sl 515

ROLTA : Sell Below 120,Sloss 125,Tgts 117/115/112/110/105

DLF : Sell Below 230,Sloss 240,Tgt 220/210

FUTURES

Buy HOTEL LEELA Jan @21-22,Sl 20,Tgt 22.6/22.8/23.2/24 (Lot Size 3750)

ONGC (690.20) : Sell @ 700,Sl 715,Tgt 670/665/655

RCOM (206.5) : Sell@ 215,Sl 225,Tgt 195/185 / Positional Short Hold with Sl 230

RIL (1197) : Sell @ 1225,Sl 1270,Tgt 1170/ below it then 1145

Sell GAIL Jan @197-198,Sl 201,Tgt 196/194/192/190/188/186/182/180 (Lot Size 750)

IFCI – FUT (C-21.2): Looking Weak:

Sell Around 21-23,Tgt 19/17/15,Sl 25 ( Risky Positional Traders Sl 28)

MKTS RUMOUR:RIL HAS INCURRED A MAJOR LOSS IN OIL HEDGING TO THE TUNE OF $5-$7BN.TWO TOP OFFICIALS HARISH SHAH & ALOK AGRAWAL HAVE PUT IN THER PAPER

SUN PHARMA & REL CAP TO REPLACE SATYAM COMP FROM BSE & NIFTY RESPECTIVELY FROM 12th JAN.

Commodities

Gold --- On higher side $866-$890 are resistance. In MCX downside support at 13050 and 12800.

Trading range between $830-$876.

Huge sell off can not be ruled out on break and close below $830.

Natural Gas--- Sideways to higher trading expected in near term. Buy on dips.

Copper --- On upper side consider the level of 164-166 as resistance. Above which Copper can test 168-172 in near future. Buy in the range of 150-152 for near term.

Silver --- Caught in the trading range of 10.40 to 11.50. In MCX 17500-18550.

Nickel --- As written earlier that correction expected below 590.

Manas

We saw a MAJOR breakdown, but however managed to close above the trendline.

now today we need to watch if we close above 2904.

if we close above it, don't take positional shorts.however a closing below 2904 would mean, nifty may hit 2763-2635.

also closing below 2800 spot levels may bring 2457 in nifty in short term, as 2800 spot is being watched by many analyst and traders around the world as a sacred level.

because of this major breakdown, don't consider positional longs till we close above 3050 levels

For intraday, all shorts shoud have a SL above 2904, and no shorting above it for intraday.

Traders may also try some small longs above 2904 for 30-40 points gain in intraday.

(60 min intraday chart attached, All Future Levels)

NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Yet again markets have reacted from the upper end of the triangle. Although the triangle seemed to be broken the confirmatory moves did not come. Now Sensex is coming close to the lower end of the triangle.

The extreme short term trendline comes to around 9500 and other comes closer to 9300.

The recent most low comes around 9162.

So we again need to watch the zone of 9300-9500 and see whether index gives a reversal from the zones or not.

A 3-4 session closing move below 9200 would mean a breakdown on downside and open up gates to 8300/7700 or lower also technically.

Similarly a move beyond 10500 gives a target of 10900/11650 +.

In the next couple of weeks we might see a move which tries to break on either side. So be prepared to react then to try predicting in a volatile environment.

Stocks to watchout for :

As index is near lower zones discussing large caps and their levels. Lot many stocks have come closer to recent trendline supports. Need to watch recent lows corresponding to 9162 Sensex.

The support for Reliance comes around 1155-1140 zone in near term if sustains below it can drop to 1020-1050. The major probs would be seen below 1020 only.

RCOM support is around 196 /184 . Sustaining below 184 would mean big trouble.

LnT important support around 720-740 zone.

DISCIPLINE AND RISK MANAGEMENT !!!!

The above two words are more important for a trader then any other. Generally every trader tends to talk about trades,technical points , mechanical systems and every thing else that revolves around Stocks and prices. But lets look at some some of my favorite sentences .

A traders job is not to trade BUT TRADE WELL.

Its not necessary to trade every day.

If you are not in the market all you can lose is an opportunity.

Some on risk management

"How you trade is more important than what you trade."

Risk management is the difference between a successful trader and a sucker.

Preserving capital is more important then profits.

The reason for writing above sentences is to emphasize the importance of discipline and risk management is because it is generally the least focussed topic amongst traders. Majority of the times traders are looking for technical tools , tips and everything else whereas the real key to successful trading is in the two words.

Avoiding leverage has been our motto always and have consistently mentioned it. Those who followed this discipline were able to see through Jan, March , October crashes and still be in business.

Another important thing is stoplosses, booking partial profits, reducing risk and being on cash on regular intervals was the motto since March onwards ( 16k breakdown ).

The next important words for Jan-March-May would be generate capital through trading , Stoplosses and trailing stops will be better as rides will be bigger , be opportunistic rather then bearish or bullish , be nimble-footed, Plan your investments , Be ready to invest with a price target as well as risk apetite.

As a matter of fact the Satyam fiasco has made me mention this topic as lot many readers would be able to relate with it.

We had a buy call on Satyam on basis of a calculation on Balance has suddenly gone wrong coz of the shocking revelations by Mr Raju ( will discuss some other time on it ).

Suddenly all the analysis is totally wrong as the assumption the cash is true.

But the end result is the stock moved from 115 -120 to 175-185. We were out of the majority portion by 170 and rest on trailing of 165 or many might have moved out early. This was due to the disciplined trading and risk management ( staggered selling on rise frm 155 to 175 to reduce exposure ) .

Out here lets sum it up.

1) Buying reason was medium term with a price target rather then fundamental time period.

2) Balance Sheet analysis looked fine but IT fundas we dint like.

3) Based on assumption that balance sheet is true. Every fundamental analysis is based on this FACT.

4) Technically the stock was never a buy but that was never the basis of the trade.

The above points dont matter as assumptions and the reasons went wrong in the medium term.

But the end result of the trade gain of 20-50 %. REASON--- DISCIPLINE AND RISK MANAGEMENT.

Next view was to avoid the stock after the RAJU report.

1) The reason to buy was Balance sheet which ceased to exist.

2) Technically it was never a buy but actually a sell when it broke down.

So whether to term this trade of ours to be lucky or result of discipline is a different perspective. But all i can say is even if we may go wrong in our reasons but our discipline may definitely try to save us from going bankrupt!