The Indian market opened on gap-up and saw good recovery at the end of session and close with hand some gains. For coming session if nifty trade above 2879 it can test 2920-2940 on the lower side 2813 will act support zone .On the lower side trade below 2807 it can test 2769 -2735 levels .
If Nifty holds the 2780-2800 levels, it may attempt the next resistances 2860(Often talked about) and 2910(30 DMA) & 2950 (25DMA).There is a cluster of averages above 2880(50, 20, 25,30) and likely supports at 2785-2820(3DMA & 5 DMA).
After the steep fall from 3147 to 2721, this rally can take the Nifty to 2882(38%); 2934(50%). However, any rally past 2950 will likely reverse this downtrend.
Till then, expect a tug of war at 2780 - 2880/2950 area before a decisive move takes place.
NIFTY FUTURE
ABOVE 2827 TARGET 2868-2889-2921
BELOW 2797 TARGET 2776-2763-2748-2685
Today market will remain very volatile, I advise to sell on higher levels, Today may be Govt. will declare fuel price cut. Nifty has to close above 2868 to show some strength. below 2868 my view is bearish for market.
-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
Sell ACC below 513 SL 531 Target 503-495-485
Sell HDFCBANK below 966 SL 996 Target 956-943
Sell INFOSYS below 1268 SL 1305 Target 1240-1217
Buy DIVISLAB above 1178 SL 1130 Target 1214-1251
Buy NTPC above 173 SL 168 Target 175-178
It was all good – but now past us. Technically it is difficult to support this run up today. The Nifty and Reliance had run up today on news partially and on lower than 50 day average volumes. Little less – but less nevertheless. Reliance advanced 9.48% on 89% of 50 Average volumes, Nifty advanced 3.29% on 85% volumes, L&T 1.34% on 59% volumes, Tata Steel 5.23% on 58% volumes… the list goes on. Now go on to the other side – Gail lost 0.92% on 103% volumes, HDFC bank down 1.14% on 143%. The list is fairly long and the run up is not really full-fledged. Time will tell the rest.
Asia was good – Nikkei ended 0.29% in green, Hang Seng 0.27% in green and Strait Times 0.16% in green. Mind you they had dived nearer or lower than their opening levels. Europe opened at levels that remained the best for the day. The closing was – Red – FTSE down 4.97%, Dax down 4.63% and CAC down 4.56%. US just has carried the red rally further with the markets in mid session down – Dow down 3.05%, Nasdaq down 3.17% and S&P down 3.42% – there is a long way to go. They might come off these lows but the possibility remains bleak. Our ADRs except for one odd are hammered down like hell.
Tomorrow also we have a lot of news coming in including the inflation data that has now-a-days lost much of its shine as markets do not look forward to it. As far as the candles are concerned the candle today was a large and white one. It came off the lower end of the Bollinger band and 5 EMA does not still look like crossing the 20 EMA (the chart does not show the 5 EMA). The ADX does not give any credence to this up move – but it does also say that perhaps the down trend is loosing steam – negative nonetheless. MACD negative divergence remains/ RSI looks up – hopefully we can call it positive, but one of my favourites – the TRIX is looking down with vengeance. Slow Stochastics oversold and that is the second indicator that holds out hope for us.
Seen the markets playing out – opened at R1 levels and then kept going up almost to the R2 levels – then testing the bottom at the R1 Levels finally breaching the R2 – unable to sustain and coming back to the R2 levels. Basically the game was about the two resistance levels. The red line is the 14 minutes EMA and leave aside few whip lashes – you could have 30 – 40 run each sides.
The pivot data for tomorrow…
R3 2958 against 2884 yesterday
R2 2917
R1 2876
Pivot 2812 against 2755 yesterday
S1 2771
S2 2707
S3 2666 against 2626 yesterday
Projected High Range 2844 to 2896
Projected Low Range 2809 to 2757
Fib Projected High 2881
Fib Projected Low 2719.
Hey best of luck to tomorrow. I really I am just a pessimist around the corner and am proved wrong by the markets.
Sensex Technical View:
Sensex gave a quick pullback to come back to 9350 -9400 . As it was noted in the video that mkts have fallen around 1000-1400 points in last 3-4 sessions and a pullback is also a good possibility before confirmatory signals emerge.
In the chart above we can see the two lower trendlines which would resist any upmoves and such a pullback does happen as a testing of the lines in ideal technicals.
9450 and 9650 odd are the trendline levels. Only a sustained move beyond these lines would reduce the possibility of triangle breakdown.
The markets have been swinging below and above the triangle in the last few days. The view to wait for a confirmatory moves still remains till then wait and watch .
Stocks to watchout for :
Mahindra and Mahindra
The stock could give a breakout if sustains 330 and could target 345-360 levels quickly
Reliance Inds
The stock gave a quick bounce from lows ( some say there were rumours ) .
Resistances on upside are at 1200-1220 and higher side 1295 . Only a sustained move beyond 1300-1340 or below 1020 can give a clear direction .
Market Observations and Thoughts :
There are lot many emails , rumours and discussions on various stocks right from reliance to rolta to polaris to pyramid saimira etc have been continously doing rounds. There are many versions to each story.
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