Nifty - 3046.75(+13.30)
Sensex - 9958.21 (+54.75)
Short Term Turning Dates (+/- 1 Day)* -
(* Effect can start few hours to 1 day earlier)
Jan 06th (** Mildly Bullish but Caution advised - Signal Strength Medium **)
Dec 07th (** Bearish Initially but recovery later - Signal Strength Medium **)
(Note-There are many contradictory signals this week, so strict caution advised in Day Trading)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty has given another bullish breakout in EST charts target of which was given earlier as 3060-3125 which is maintained. On the bearish side, close below 2935 may change the bullish outlook temporarily. " As expected, Nifty opened on a positive note, gave some anxious moments in a zigzag manner but moved up to touch an intra day high of 3079 led by index heavy weight Reliance Inds. which contributed the most in its rise. Finally there was selling towards the close on account of weekend & Nifty managed to close at 3046, about 13 points above the previous close. The rise was also led by many midcap stocks which had given bullish breakout in last couple of sessions.
As far as, EST charts are concerned, while Nifty has given bullish breakout & it is nearing the target of 3105-3125 but at the same time it is making a bearish "Wedge" pattern with support at 3035 & breakout from where can easily wipe off more than 100 points in couple of sessions. Most of the infrastructure, banking, sugar stocks have entered in overbought zone & most of them are ripe for corrective decline.
Sector wise, midcap stocks of most sectors were in limelight. Stocks like India Infoline, Guj. Alkali, HCC, Guj. Inds. power, GMR Infra, IVRCL Infra, select banking stocks were on the upmove whereas very few stiocks like Noida Toll, sugar stocks, power stocks were among the top losers of the day. As far as A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 2.5:1 with 345 declines & 878 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty achieved it's target of 3060+ and target of 3125 is still maintained but Nifty faced resistance at 3080 and it has been moving in a bearish "Rising Wedge" pattern in hourly charts having support at 3020-3030, breakout from these levels can wipe off nearly 100 points in 1-2 sessions. The best strategy should be to book profit in overbought stocks which have risen sharply in last 3-4 days & fresh buying can be contemplated in case of any sharp selling for next 2-3 weeks.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (05th January - 09th January 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Caution advised as most Indices giving Contradictory signals
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, both Sun and Mars are placed in Sagittarius along with Pluto. Neecha (Debilitated) Jupiter continues to be stationed in Capricorn along with Rahu, Neptune, Mercury. Venus and Uranus are placed in Aquarius. Saturn is stationed in Leo. Ketu is placed in Cancer. Moon will Transit through Aries, Taurus and Gemini during this week. Important to note that Saturn got retrograde on 31st December 2008m Mercury will get retrograde on 11th Jan while Jupiter will be debilitated from 11th Jan 2009. As per western astrology, Jupiter will ingress in Aquarius on 5th Jan which is a bullish sign.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit Venus will have sextile aspect with Pluto n 05th, T Mars will have semi-sextile aspect with Rahu on 08th. Sun will have sextile aspect with Uranus on 09th which can cause Sharp downmove and again rise sharply. In NSE Natal Chart - Tr Marswill have sextile aspect with Natal Saturn, Tr Sun will have sextile aspect with natal Rahu, a bullish sign. Tr Venus will conjunct Natal Saturn again a bullish sign. Tr Mars will have sextile aspect with Natal Venus which can cause downward jerk on 08th. As per western astrology, Tr Jupiter ingress in Aquarus on 05th Jan can cause Sharp fall followed by sharp upmove.
Moon's transit through Aries is a Bearish indications but it has tendency to take market up before Moon's entry to Taurus but later part of transit into Gemini can bring the market down.But Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, it appears, that Market is likely to be very volatile with many ups and downs. Intraday Downward corrections are possible on Monday and Friday. In between there can be sharp upswings due to T Venus-T Pluto/ T Mars-T Rahu/ T Sun- N Rahu. Market is expected to remain bullish from 09th Jan for few days.(Note-There are many contradictory signals this week, so strict caution advised in Day Trading)
There are strong Bullish as well as Bearish aspects in next week, which can cause lot of volatility to trigger Stop Loss. Day Traders must be more cautious as chances of geting Stop Loss Triggered are very high. Good upmove is possible after 09th Jan for next few days. (08th Jan is a Holiday)
Astrologically there are "2 Turning Dates this week - both Medium". Most of the Indices like Nifty/ Nifty Future/Bank Nifty/Nifty MidCap/ CNXIT likely to recover on 06th Jan, and while some indicators are giving indication of Upward U-Turn on 07th .It must be kept in mind that lot of volatility is expected so trading/ investing in big way may be avoided.
Trading Strategy - Keeping in mind the different Astrological Turning Dates during the week, For conservative Traders "Selective Buying on Monday (05th) to Book Profit on Tuesday (06th) and Select Buying on Wednesday (07th) to Book Profit on Friday (09th) likely to give good returns during the week as far as Nifty Futures, Nifty, Nifty-Madcap and Sensex are concerned. (Note-There are many contradictory signals this week, so strict caution advised in Day Trading)
Important Dates
06th January (+/- 1 Day)**
07th January (+/- 1 Day)**
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver/ Copper
As already mentioned that Crude Oil is preparing for Multi-week Rally which can take it to US$65 - US$85 in coming months. On down side, it has strong support @US$36-US$40.In Extreme Short Term Crude can decline marginally after 09th January but again from 2nd Week to January to early February, Crude is expected to remain bullish. Gold, despite volatility likely to remain weak till 15th January 2009. Silver, however can rise initially but it will also favour Bears till 15th January.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, Indian Rupee will remain Volatile in next 10-15 Days. But it is likely to remain under pressure for next few weeks.
US Markets
Astrologically, US Markets may be slightly weak in first half of the week till 06th or 7th but likely to recover in second half of the Week.
Technical Stock Recommendations (Short Term)
Satyam Computer(177.05)
Stock has risen sharply from 115 to 187 in last 7 trading sessions putting EST momentum indicators in overbought zones with negative divergences which can initiate corrective decline to 158-171 in coming sessions. Part profit booking/short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 185 using SL of Rs.10/- & target of 171 & 158.
Lic. Hous. Fin.(244.95)
Stock has given breakout from a bullish "Inverted Head & Shoulder" pattern having resistance at 238 & bullish breakout from where may target 270 & 272 which is likely to be achieved in next few days. Fresh buying may be considered on minor decline till 236-238 using SL of Rs.8/- & target of 270-272 which may be achieved soon.
SAIL(84)
Stock has risen sharply from 69 to 86 in last 5 trading sessions putting EST momentum indicators in overbought zones with negative divergences which can initiate corrective decline to 79-80 in coming sessions. Part profit booking/short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 86 using SL of Rs.2/- & target of 79-80.
JP Hydro(32.05)
Stock is on verge of bullish breakout from "Inverted Head & Shoulder" pattern having resistance at 34 & bullish breakout from where may target 43-44 which is likely to be achieved in next few days. Fresh buying may be considered once the stock moves/stays above 34 using SL of Rs.3/- & target of 43-44 which may be achieved soon.
GMR Infra(85.2)
Stock had given breakout from a bullish "Double Botttom" pattern having resistance at 78-79 & bullish breakout from where may target 102-105 which is likely to be achieved in next few days. However, stock is overbought in hourly charts which can initiate corrective decline to 78-79 in coming sessions. Part profit booking/short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 86 using SL of Rs.3/- & target of 78-79.
Other Stocks to watch - RNRL/ Tata Steel/ IVRCL/ GSPL/ Nag Const./ Parsvnath
BSE Sensex(9958.22) and Nifty(3046.75) closed 6.7 percent and 6.6 percent up respectively last week. Inflation was at 6.38 v/s 6.61 last week. Crude oil was at 42$..Market gained ground on the hope the of second stimulus package announcement which was ultimately declared after market hours on Friday. Reserve Bank Of India also reduced Cash Reserve Ratio by 50 basis points to 5 percent and Reverse Repo Rate by 100 basis point to 4 percent on Friday evening which will release 20,000 Cr into the system. Impact of deepening global crisis led RBI to cut the rates to avert downside risk to economy. In second stimulus package ceiling of External Commercial Borrowing was removed and FII investment limit in corporate bonds was increased from $6 billion to $15 billion. CVD was reduced in cement, depreciation for commercial vehicle was increased to 50 percent till March,2009.NBFC ‘S limits were increased and public sector banks were given enhanced credit targets. DEPB scheme was extended till 31st December 2009. Satyam was in the limelight after three independent directors had resigned and recovered from lows. Reliance Industries also went up smartly inspite of S & P cutting co's rating outlook from stable to negative. Support for Sensex is at 9390 and for Nifty 2880.Resistance for Sensex is at 10630 and Nifty is at 3240 Small buying from FII was visible. Nifty put-call ratio was 1.11.Nifty 3200 call option added open interest. RNRL and Unitech added open interest. Satyam and Renuka Sugar shaded open interest. Huge position was build up at Satyam January put option strike price 170 and RNRL January call option strike price 70.
Tacticsfor Future Option players. 1)ICICI Bank(471.25) Lot Size-175 Shares Buy one call option of January strike 450@46.50 Rs. Sell one call option of January strike price 500@21.50 Rs. Premium .Paid=46.50*175=8137.50 Rs. Premium Received=21.50*175=3762.50 Rs. Net Premium Paid=8137.50-3762.50=4375.00 Rs. Maximum Profit=500-450=50*175=8750.00-4375.00=4375.00 Rs. Maximum Loss=4375.00 Rs. Break-even=475.00 Rs.
2)Nagarjuna Fertilizer(18.20) January future-Lot Size 3500 shares. Buy one lot January future @18.20 Sell one call option of January strike price 20@0.90 Rs. Premium Received=0.90*3500=3150.00 Rs. Max Profit==20.00-18.20=1.80*3500=6300.00+3150.00=9450.00 Rs. Max loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea 1)Reliance Capital(567.85)Buy this stock in decline and trade. 2)JPHydro(32.10)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
Trend of Major Stocks
STOCK TREND Days WeeklyTrend MonthlyTrend
ICICIBANK.NS Bulllish 2 Rising Rising INFOSYSTC.NS Neutral 1 Rising Falling ITC.NS Bulllish 1 Rising Rising MARUTI.NS Bulllish 4 Rising Rising SATYAMCOM.NS Bulllish 5 Rising Falling SBIN.NS Bulllish 2 Rising Rising TATASTEEL.NS Bulllish 2 Rising Rising
Technical indicators of major Stocks
MFI=Money Flow Index RSI=Relative Strength Index ADX=Directional Momentum Index
STOCK CLOSE MFI-21 RSI-14 ADX-14 ICICIBANK.NS 471.25 76.1 60.95 20.68 INFOSYSTC.NS 1132.1 66.16 44.4 15.87 ITC.NS 174.5 51.15 52.72 9.39 MARUTI.NS 544.4 71.83 54.58 26.01 SATYAMCOM.NS177.2 42.67 43.02 41.96 SBIN.NS 1331.85 76.32 60.84 15.73 TATASTEEL.NS 229.6 62.94 58.85 19.03 TCS.NS 498.3 43.18 48.46 11.92
Four trillion yuan ($586 billion) will be spent on upgrading infrastructure, particularly roads, railways, airports and the power grid; on raising rural incomes via land reform; and on social welfare projects such as affordable housing and environmental protection.
But What charts are telling us? Did their Stock Market flourished?
The Answer is Simply a Big No. Even after annoucning such a huge timulus package the mood of the Chinese markets remains dull and still they are moving downwards even after the announcemnet of fiscal package. Looks at current scenario... stimulus package wont cheer up the markets.
Click on the charts to have a clear view
Nifty Wave Count For coming Day’s :: After our 23/11/08 & 8/12/08 Nifty detail wave count post in Nifty coming month .. Nifty trade in side way momentum and made Constrating triangle with a-b-c-d-e … May be finish Primary flat of A-B-C of A.. Now for coming day’s for B leg required to given breakout of 3110 and hold above 3240 .. Hold above 3110/3240 given more strength for up swing .. Target of B leg in between 3350 to 4000..
For 5th Jan Watch important resistance 3071/3080/3110/3120/3160.. & Supports 3000/2956/2885.. Still our strategy same buy on deep (Now For short term put S.L 3000) Sell at high..
Sensex Technical View :
In the last update it was discussed that 9000-9200 is the bottom range. Sensex made a low of around 9162 in the range and close to the trend line zone and gave a sharp bounce back to 10k.
Yet again the index is closer to the upper end of the range with many resistances in the band of 10050-10400. The formation looks like a triangle or simply put a trendline breakout above 10400.
Also if we see the previous channel comes to around the same zone. 4-5 sessions above 10400 would put the index back into the previous channel which has an upper limit of 12k. This red channel breakout led to the big fall to 8k in October.
The price action seems to be good with stimulus package and global support but an increase in volumes would confirm a breakout!!! Although the real action will remain with side counters and specific stocks in the week. Good trading opportunities expected.
Continue to watch the 10400 odd level closely before taking major commitments.
Stocks
ABB
ABB
The stock has not given much of a bounce back since October lows and the range has been 400-480. A sustained move beyond 482 could tgt 505-535 in short term.
ICICI Bank
Seems a small cup and handle pattern in daily charts. Resistance around 480-490. Sustaining abov 480 should target 515+ levels. The volumes are low so a confirmation of breakout would need increasing volumes.
IDFC above 72 , Kotak Bank above 400 , Yes Bank above 83 would see a move of 10 % + in the week. Traders can keep a stop of 3 % from cmp.
SCI, Ge shipping and FSL could be surprise movers of the week with volatile upmoves.
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