NEWSLETTER

Axit D Shah


Hello Readers / Visitors,

Nifty EOD ( End of day 20 January 2009 ) charts has been updated.

2day after gap down opening markets traded in very narrow range the whole remained in the same. In the last trading some movements are seen in rates & figs are changing & this has been happening since last many days.

2day also Relaince group stocks show ealy gains in last hour of trade but gave as some selling seen in RIL itself. Also Power stocks gave some quick gains in last hour of trade after CERC ups 2009 - 2014 ROE for power units by 150 bps; CERC also ups depreciation rate for power utilities.

Still trend reversal levels are placed at on close below 2725 on lower side & 2855 on upper side 4 break outs till then it wil remain in this consolidation range.

Nifty trading levels are updated in the Chart itself.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on weak note and close in red zone .Market opened on gap-down and traded in narrow range .For the coming session if nifty break 2701 we can see stiff sell off and on the upper side 2877 strong resistance zone . Nifty is trading in range 2900-2700 zones.

(Ilango)

Nifty found its support just above the Friday's Gap at 2755. It nearly retraced a 50% of the fall from yesterday's high 2868(Last week high too) to todays low of 2758.
So for any short term move up, 2755-2758 should hold. Sell below this and sell strongly below 2700.
Daily close above 2850 will bring a short term momentum up.
The range presently is 2755 to 2870...Trade well.

21/01/09

NIFTY RANG CMP 2796....BUY 2824 ...TARGET 2852/2872/2902...&SELL BELOW 2780..TARGET..2754/ 2722/2702.....

MY CHART
Nifty :: Nifty try to hold key support 2700/2725 and still traded above rising channel bottom.. For 21^st Jan 2721 and 2700 works as strong support below 2700 as per our last week post Nifty touch 2630/2600.. In one level above 2790 momentum seems up, below 2790 momentum down.. Up to 2700 our strategy buy on deep (S.L 2700) sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 2815/2878/2925.. Supports 2721/2700/2664/2645

(drjcshah)

Sell RELIANCE below 1160 SL 1190 Target 1136-1109
Sell AXIS BANK below 415 SL 434 Target 405-386
Sell BPCL below 385 SL 397 Target 379-373 (RISKY TRADE)
Sell FEDERAL BANK below 152 SL 157 Target 149-144
Sell HEROHONDA below 826 SL 837 Target 812-801 (RISKY TRADE)
Sell INFOSYS below 1239 SL 1269 Target 1217-1194 (RISKY TRADE)

rupeshydalal

NIFTY FUTURE

ABOVE 2789 TARGET 2816-2834-2850
BELOW 2768 TARGET 2746-2732-2711-2698

(SVShah)

NIFTY (2796) : MARKETS ARE TRADING IN TIGHT RANGE OF 2700-2850.

Support : 2755 / 2725 / 2685 / 2645

Resistance : 2825 / 2840 / 2885 / 2915/30 / 3020

NIFTY FUTURE ( 2776)

Support : 2745 / 2710

Resistance : 2800 / 2820

SENSEX (9100)

Support : 9035 / 8970

Resistance : 9165 / 9225

Nifty trend: Nifty is seems to range bound 2700-3200 as per short term. If Nifty able to sustain close above 2800 for 3-5 session then we can see bullish trend in nifty. Now Next resistence level in nifty is 2930-3020

BSE Sensex Trend: Sensex now near its crucial and psychological support of 9000 after break this level we can see more downtrend like 8940/8800 level also and upside 9300/9500. In Sensex 9400 is major level in Sensex and closing above 9400 for 2-3 days we can see sharp rally but on every higher level is very cautious.

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI marginal up with 39% increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile, selling will emerge on every rise.

On Wednesday ,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 2780,Sl Above 2800,Tgt 2755-2715-2705-2645-2610

Sustain Above 2810,Buy with Sl Below 2790,Tgt 2840-2855-2885

OR

Risky Positional Traders

Sell NIFTY Jan @ 2800-2820,Sl 2870,Tgt 2765-2750-2735-2705

Buy GNFC Above 55,Tgt 60-63-65,Sl 51

Buy INDIACEM Above 105,Tgt 110-112-117,Sl 100

Buy HEROHONDA Above 835,Tgt 850-865-895,Sl 830

Buy BHEL Fut/Eq above 1405

Sell BANKINDIA Below 250,Tgt 245-240-225,Sl 255

Sell CMC Below 305,Tgt 300-295-285,Sl 310

Sell GAIL Below 205,Tgt 200-195-185,Sl 210

Sell ICICI BANK Below 395,Tgt 390-380-360,Sl 405

Sell ACC Below 485,Tgt 480-478-473,Sl 490

TATA POWER (769) Sell with Sloss Above 785,Tgt 740/735.

ABB
Buy Above 445,Tgt 450/455/460,Sl 440

Sell Above 440,Tgt 435/430/425,Sl 445

JPHYDRO : JAN FUTURE 32.55

Buy it on Crossover & Sustain Above 33 ,Sloss 32,Target 33.85/34.70/36 levels. On down side support exists at 31.80/31 levels.

admin

Sell Niftyfutures below 2748, TGT: 2710, 2688 SL: 2760

Buy Niftyfutures above 2666, TGT: 2690, 2715 SL: 2654

Trade as per levels and follow strict stoploss

S S Cheema

So the Obama magic does not seem to be working – the markets are weak. What happened today was not really expected – but then I suppose that we are used to these indecisive moves. In these times the option writers seem to be having a ball of a time. But wait – you just try to do the same and the markets will trend so strongly in some direction that it will mow down your positions like the tanks are doing in Gaza. Actually if the markets are not paying regards to Obama – what the hell were we really expecting by his taking office? Miracles ? forget it… I too fell for it… the Obama swearing in factor @@#$#. I will take time to set it aside and go ahead with the times. We had a fairly good rally going on when Raju spoiled the day – and there is nothing that is now convincing the bull to wake up and bears to let go of the half dead bulls.

The markets everywhere are a shade of red. Asia closed with Nikkei down 2.31%, Hang Seng closed down 2.85% and Strait Times down 1.35%. Europe also closed down – FTSE down 0.42%, Dax down 1.77% and CAC down 2.15%. Europe went down even after showing a good chance of remaining green or flat. The US tilted the Europe closing in favour of red. It is mid session in US and they too are red. Dow down 1.66%, Nasdaq down 2.88% and S&P down 2.42%. They were off their lows for some time but are again trailing down around the days lows. Hope like hell that they recover.

It is confusing to say the least – the markets have actually fallen on fairly low volumes. The candle has not really pierced the day before’s white candle as as I see it – it does not threaten the swing up for whatever it is or it was worth. The red candle today was not strong enough to spell the change in trend. 5 EMA is lower than 20 EMA is lower than 50 EMA. there has to be some crossover of higher EMA by lower period EMA to say that we have a chance of going up. Noticed that the entire trading was in a narrow band of 50 on Nifty? crazily narrow to say the least. ADX again has the DI – line above the DI + but the trend is weak so that is where I am hoping for the recovery as the bear trend too is not being supported by it. The MACD is still with negative divergence but has reduced somewhat. RSI is bad and bearish – also falling down. Slow Stochastic red line is above the blue line and is fast heading towards overbought zone. If with the markets virtually standing still the MACD is going overbought then GOD only knows what will happen when the selling starts. TRIX still looks down only.

Let us now see how the day panned out in the markets today. The markets dropped below the Support 3 but could not sustain at those levels. Then it spent the rest of the day in a very narrow 20-25 point range finally deciding to test the support 2. Once again it could not sustain at levels above the Support 2 but gracefully or let us say thankfully ended at those levels itself.

The pivot data for tomorrow is as under: -

R3 2926 against 2917 yesterday
R2 2882
R1 2839
Pivot 2798 against 2844 yesterday
S1 2755
S2 2714
S3 2671 against 2771 yesterday
Projected High Range 2819 to 2861
Projected Low Range 2823 to 2781
Fib Projected High 2864
Fib Projected Low 2735

Okay the figures I take to calculate the pivot data are from the NSE website only but take for example today the high levels give are 2842. These were the levels where the Nifty opened and hardly stayed there for a few seconds before dropping like a hot brick – so I really do not know how to compensate for such data. All the same this is all I have and please do not ask me the direction – don’t know – and I will be surprised if anyone knows. Best of luck…

Manas

2745 will be the key today, below that 2723-2703.

closing below 2745 may take nifty to 2634 levels.

however if we get a gap down, and recover, crossing 2745 buy for tgts of 2763-2777.

if closes above 2763, it would be bullish

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

It seems the indecision in the index should be over in coming sessions. Lets consider a few technical points.

1) Triangle pattern.

Sensex continues to trade below the triangle breakdown levels and has been testing the line in the last few sessions and inability to cross the same suggests the weakness remains and one needs to be cautious with longs and wait for confirmation of breakdowns to short. In many triangle breakdowns the index may try to test the line before giving the move down.

Only a move beyond the upper trendline with significant volumes would negate the breakdown. Detail on triangle pattern explained in the videos -- http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/01/negative-bias-remains-till-its-below.html

2) Pullback and consolidatio move

After the breakdown it was discussed on the blog that markets have fallen more then 1000-1500 points in few days and a pullback should come before any clarity comes. The pullback can technically go till 9500 /9800 but cannot be sure so we preferred not to trade this move apart from long nifty at 2690 squared at 2765 lil early tho.

3) Short term moves

Although short term moves have been very sluggish interesting to note is top is around 9400 and low around 8950 zones. So a simple technical setup or trading setup would suggest going short or long on a break out from the range.


Stocks to watchout for :

ACC

Sustaining below 480 could be headed towards 440 levels . Can short with a stop of 3-4 % .

Bharat Electronics

The stock has been a range of 750-800 for last few sessions. Sustaining above 800 could give a tgt of 850-880 in short term.


NTPC

The stock seems to have a broken out but should see resistance around the 195 -199 mark. Can go short with a stop of 204.