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| Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events; Pattern Duration at least 25 days. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hello Readers / Visitors,
Todays culprit THE EDUCOMPPPPPPPPP
NIFTY END OF DAY CHART 21 JANUARY 2009
Nifty close below trend reversal levels for the 1st day, we need to get this confirmation for 2 to 3 days on closing basis. If we close below this for few days then we can seen see lower levels of 2550 - 2400 too & if not then this could be false break down too & we may move up again. The Nifty spot level for tomorrow to be watched out are 2650-2665.
Relaince group stocks was in selling pressure since morning & Rel Cap made new 52 week low, The results to be watched out tomorrow is Reliance Industries ( mkt estimate is weaker by 20-25% ).
PROVISIONAL FIGURES IN RS CRORES FOR 21 JANUARY 2009
Fii - 787
Dii +283
Fii(deri) -625
Idx fut -713
Idx opt +74
Stk fut +46
Stk opt -33
* TATA STEEL !
Bearish but oversold-Use recovery towards 199 for profit booking
* R COMM. !
Strong support around 165-2 close below 165 can target 150 in coming days
* HINDALCO !
On verge of bearish breakout-2 close below 46 can wipe off Rs.10/- in coming days
* BHARTI AIRTEL !
All indicators favor decline to 525 in coming days-Use pullback for profit booking only
* RELIANCE INDS. !
Intra day targets achieved-Recovery to 1164 likely
* IB REAL ESTATE !
Bearish but oversold-Technical recovery to 109 likely
* YES BANK !
Bearish pattern in making-2 close below 69 can target 58-60 in near term
* WIPRO !
Strong support around 213-Breakout may target 180 in near future
* SESA GOA !
EST support around 71-Bearish breakout can target 61 in near term
* BOI !
Bearish breakout in hourly charts-Likely to go below 230 in near term
* SBI !
Enters oversold zones-Technical recovery to 1135 likely
* STERLITE INDS. !
Heading for 225-Recovery to 250 may be used for profit booking
* TATA MOTORS !
Breaks short term support-Technical recovery to 158 likely
* IDBI !
Oversold in EST charts-Technical recovery to 60 likely
* BHEL !
Strong support around 1320-Bearish breakout may wipe off Rs.200/- in near term
* MARUTI UDYOG !
Extremely oversold-Technical recovery to 555 likely
* RNRL !
Strong support at 47-Bearish breakout may target 41-42 in near term
* SAIL !
"Head & Shoulder" pattern in making-Close below 72 will target 60 in near term
* ICICI BANK !
Bearish breakout in daily charts-Use recovery towards 400 for profit booking
* REL. CAPITAL !
Breaks EST support-Likely to touch 365 in near term
* GE SHIPPING !
Enters oversold zones-Technical recovery to 182 likely
* DEEPAK FERTILIZERS !
Heading for 50-Use recovery to 55 for profit booking
* ZEE ENT. !
Enters back in bearish pattern-Close below 110 may wipe off Rs.15/- in near term
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Nifty - 2706.15(-90.45)
Sensex - 8779.17 (-321.38)
Short Term Turning Dates (+/- 1 Day)* -
(* Effect can start few hours to 1 day earlier)
Jan 20th (** Downward U-Turn expected on late 20th or early 21st - Signal Strength Medium **)
Jan 22nd (** Upward U-Turn expected for next 1 Day - Signal Strength Medium **)
Technical Outlook (22nd January 2009)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty, which was slightly overbought for targets of 2785, achieved its targets & bounced back to cover part of the opening gap of Tuesday. Nifty is currently placed between 2 important levels of 2700 & 2870, breakout on either side will have important implications of 100 points in coming days. " Nifty opened with a huge downward gap again despite the fact that Obama took over as US President & most of the investors throughout the world were expecting recovery in stock markets. US market had crashed badily on 20th & Asian & European markets also followed there fate. Nifty did recover to 2788 during the course of the day but declined sharply after 2pm to touch an intraday low of 2690 before closing at 2706, about 92 points below the previous close.
As far as, EST charts are concerned, Nifty has moved below the previous low confirming another lower top & lower bottom in the intermediate term & another close below 2700 may target 2550-2450 in coming days. On the bullish side, Nifty can bounce back from these levels to touch 2760 in next couple of sessions. Most of the index heavy weight stocks like Reliance, Rel. Capital, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Steel, Satyam, Infosys are giving indications of further decline after the technical recovery.
Select stocks like Allahabd Bank, cummins, HCL Tech, Indian Infioline, Indian Bank etc gave bullish "Upward Bar reversal" in daily charts while stocks like JP Asso, JP Hydro, Ranbaxy, Essar Oil, ONGC, Kotak Adlab Films gave "Downward Bar Reversal" in daily Charts.
Sector wise, most of the power, metal, sugar, banking, media, construction, steel stocks declined sharply by 5%-20% whereas select stocks like Satyam, HCL Tech., Crompton, Mc Dowell & select few stocks managed to close in positive territory. As far as A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bears in the ratio of 3:1 with 906 declines & 284 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty has given another bearish breakout by moving below 2700, however it requires another close to confirm the bearish targets of 2500 & below & in the meanwhile select stocks which are extremely oversold are capable of lifting Nifty to 2750-2760 in couple of sessions. The best strategy should be to use the anticipated technical recovery for short term profit booking only in the stocks which have given bearish breakout in hourly/daily charts.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (19th January - 23rd January 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Volatile Market with rise in early part of the week.
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, 5 planets i.e. Sun, Jupiter (Combust), Mercury (Retrograde), Rahu and Neptune are placed in Capricorn, Venus and Uranus are transiting in Aquarius, Mars and Pluto are in Sagittarius. Saturn (R) is stationed in Leo. Ketu is placed in Cancer. Moon will Transit through Libra, Scorpio and Sagittarius during this week. Many planetary events will take place between 26th Jan to 01st Feb like, 26th Jan (New Moon), 27th Jan (Retrograde Mercury enters Sagittarius), 28th Jan (Mars enters Capricorn, while Venus enters Pisces), 01st Feb (Mercury turning Direct).Solar Eclipse on 26th ( Holiday in India) will make market rise for couple of days after initial decline.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit Sun, Mercury and Jupiter will Conjunct with each other in Capricorn during this week. Mercury will conjunct Jupiter on 19th Jan which is a Bullish signature, Sun and Mercury will be at 0 degree on 20th Jan which is again a bullish sign. Sun will conjunct Jupiter on 24th which is also favorable to bulls. In addition to that Mars Trine with Tr Saturn on 24th is also bullish. In NSE Natal Chart - Tr Sun will have sextile aspect with Natal Pluto which can turn market volatile.T mars conjunction with Natal Neptune (24th) is a bullish sign.Tr Venus sextile aspect with Natal Neptune can cause fall on 22nd Jan. On the other hand Tr Mercury conjunction Tr Jupiter on 19th is a Bullish Signature. Tr Sun Conjunction with Tr Jupiter is also a Bullish Sign. Tr Mars Trine aspect with Tr Saturn can also lift the market from 24th. In BSE Natal Chart - T Jupiter Square aspect with Natal Neptune on 18th is bullish. Tr Venus Trine aspect with Natal Sun on 19th is bullish but Tr Sun square aspect with Neptune can give sudden jerk on 20th. In Transit charts Sun-Mercury / Mercury-Jupiter/ Sun-Jupiter conjunction this week is bullish for market. T Mars Trine aspect with Tr Saturn is also a Bullish aspect.
Moon's transit through Libra is generally a Bullish indications but market may take down turn with Moon's entry to Scorpio for 1-2 Days. Upward U-Turn can be expected in later part of Scorpio and till about 20 degree in Sagittarius. However Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, it appears, that Market is likely to be very volatile with many ups and downs. Market may be bullish for first 1.5-2.5 days followed by decline of 2 days and it may recover from 23rd onward. Caution - Market will remain volatile ( 2 days up, 2 days down....) with swings on late 20th/21st and next week on 27th. Traders & Investors are advised to be very cautious as market can touch both 2450 and 3000 in next 2-4 weeks.
Astrologically there are "2 Turning Dates this week - both Medium". Most of the Indices like Nifty/ Nifty Future/Bank Nifty/Nifty MidCap/ CNXIT likely to decline in 2nd parts of 20th or 21st and recover from 2nd half of 22nd. Trading/ investing in big way may be avoided.
Trading Strategy - Keeping in mind the different Astrological Turning Dates during the week, For conservative Traders "Selective Buying on Tuesday (19th) to Book Profit on Tuesday (20th) and Select Buying on Wednesday (22nd) to Book Profit on Friday (23rd) likely to give good returns during the week as far as Nifty Futures, Nifty, Nifty-Madcap and Sensex are concerned.
Important Dates
20th January (+/- 1 Day)**
22 January (+/- 1 Day)**
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver/ Copper
Crude Oil is showing weakness for weakness for first 2 days of this week followed by rise from 21st/ 22nd Jan. Gold, is showing bullishness during this week. Mid-week fall can be utilized for buying again for 1-2 days. Silver is also showing bullish trend in the first half of the week followed by corrective decline and rise again in later part of the week.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, It is likely to be volatile. Rupee may show some strength on 20th and 23rd January after initial weakness.
US Markets
Astrologically, US Markets may be bullish initially for first 2-3 days followed by decline in the later part of the week.
Technical Stock Recommendations (Short Term)
Sesa Goa(71.50)
Stock is on verge of bearish breakout from a small "Head & Shoulder" pattern having support at 71, breakout from where can wipe off Rs.10/- in coming days. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered once the stock breaks/stays below 71 using SL of Rs.3/- & target of 62-63.
BHEL(1345)
Stock is making a "Rising Channel" pattern in daily charts having support at 1325 & any bearish breakout from this channel can wipe off Rs.200/- in coming days. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered once the stock breaks/stays below 1325 using SL of Rs.30/- & target of 1125-1130.
Bharti Airtel(576.90)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a small "Head & Shoulder" pattern, having neckline support at 590 which is already violated, setting a target of 530 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 595 using SL of Rs.15/- & target of 530-535.
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Head & Shoulder" pattern having neckline resistance at 400 setting a target of 300 & below, which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 375 using SL of Rs.15/- & target of 300-305.
Reliance Inds.(1116)
Stock achieved its intra day bearish targets of 1110 which was given at 1160. However, stock is extremely oversold & ripe for technical recovery to 1160 whereas bearish breakout below 1075 can wipe off Rs.200/- in coming days. Fresh buying may be considered if stock is unable to break 1075 using SL of Rs.25/- & target of 1160 which may be achieved soon
The Indian market opened on weak note and close in red zone .Market opened on gap-down and slipped sharply during final trading session and close near days lows. For coming will make or break day .Nifty had close below the channel line if trade below 2690 it can test 2630-2590 levels .On the upper side above 2729 it can test 2780-2801 zones.Trend in weekly, daily are firmly down.
In case of any rally in world markets, Nifty may rally upto 2760/2780... Technically, it is poised for more downsides.
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India VIX - Volatility Index:-
The chart below shows the Nifty Volatility Index. It is to be read like an Oscillator with a range of 0 - 100. Unlike the other TA indicators, the interpretation is exactly opposite. More volatility happens in bear phase and less volatility in bull phase.The highest reading of 92.53 was followed by Nifty's bottom at 2503.The lowest reading of 32.71 on 7th January followed the top at 3147.
Some trendlines can be drawn and TA analysis with indicators can be developed. It is just an assisting tool. Inspite of a sharp fall, VIX has not decisively broken the trendline. Lets see how it behaves tomorrow.
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NIFTY RANG CMP 2706....BUY 2780 ...
Nifty :: Exactly close above strong support 2700.. a-b-c-d-e-f-g corrective leg of f may be over soon and any time g start to move up from lower level avoid shorting near strong support zone.. Now for 22nd Jan 2700 and 2690 works as strong support below 2790 next strong support 2664/2655/2645.. Still our strategy same as yesterday buy on deep near strong support zone and sell at high.. Resistance for up move 2726/2750/2780/2792/2840.
Supports at 2690/2664/2655/2645/2592..
---All short positions of sbi,icici,rel capital,dlf are now in good profit.---Long position in Infosys closed today with good profit.
---Long calls in reliance,sail,suzlon closed with loss.
---new call of hdfc also in good profit.
It was a terrible day with the market breaking crucial support levels lead by heavy selling of large cap stocks. Sensex closed at 8736, down 364 points (provisional) and Nifty at 2692, down 103 points (provisional) from the previous close.
NSE INDEX (2706.15)
Resistance : 2730 / 2765 / 2825 / 2845
Support : 2665 / 2640-30 / 2560
SENSEX (8779.17)
Resistance : 8855 / 8925 / 8985 / 9070 / 9175
Support : 8760-40 / 8655 / 8535
NIFTY FUTURE (2686.40)
Resistance : 2710 / 2750 / 2815
Support : 2645 / 2600
BANK FUTURE (4246.05)
Resistance : 4275 / 4330 / 4415
Support : 4190 / 4135
Results Tomorrow : RELIANCE IND , BHARTI AIRTEL , RANBAXY , RIIL , BHARAT FORGE , BOI , REL POWER , IDEA , KOTAK BK , CIPLA , 3i INFOTECH , VOLTAS , FUTURE CAPITAL
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 6.79% with 21% increasing volumes indicating panic unwinding of long positions plus rollover of short positions to next series.
Gap down opening possible, NIFTY FUT to trade negative.
On Thursday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 2710,Sl Above 2740,Tgt 2685-2660-2630-2570,
Sustain Above 2735,Buy with Sl Below 2705,Tgt 2745-2765-2800-2825.
TATA STEEL : Sell Below 190,Sloss 195,Tgt 180-175-170
DIVIS LAB : Below 950 no charm for bulls, Sell with A Sloss at 975,Tgt 800/750/700
Sell CENTURY TEXT Blw 165/160
Sell ABANOFFS Blw 565,Tgt 540/520,Sl 575
TATA POWER (714) Sell with Sloss Above 730,Tgt 690/85
Sell ASIANPAINT Below 925,Tgt 915-905-880,Sl 935
Sell GAIL Below 205,Tgt 200-195-180,Sl 210
Sell HDFCBANK Below 885,Tgt 875-860-830,Sl 900
Buy CMC Above 300,Tgt 310-325-330,Sl 295
Buy BOB Above 240,Tgt 245-250-265,Sl 235
Buy BAJAJAUTO Above 455,Tgt 460-470-490,Sl 445
SIEMENS
Buy Abv 200,Tgt 205/210,Sl 198
Sell Blw 195,Tgt 190/185,Sl 198
HINDUNILVR
Buy Abv 258,Tgt 261/265,Sl 255
Sell Blw 253,Tgt 249/245,Sl 255
DLF
Buy Abv 183,Tgt 185/190,Sl 181
Sell Blw 179,Tgt 177/174,Sl 181
FUTURES:
Buy HEROHONDA Jan@835,Sl 825,Tgt 839/43/47/55/64/72/80/89/97 (Lot Size 400)
Sell LIC HOUSNG Jan @227,Sl 233,Tgt 225/24/21/19/16/13/10/07 (Lot Size 850)
RIL (1119) : Sell @ 1140-45,Sl 1165,Tgt 1095/1075 / Position Short Hold with Sl 1170
SBI (1082) : Sell 1090-95,Sl 1120,Tgt 1055/1020 / Position Short Hold with Sl 1130
TATA POWER (713.6) : Sell @725 +735,Sl 750,Tgt 715/695/680
I will say that believe me that it was not as bad it probably could have been. I say that with respect to our closing above the 2700 mark – even tough it may have been on the account of the adjustment on closing. The volumes too were not too impressive. If we have another black candle then prepare for a down swing otherwise count yourself in the same narrow band that we have been seeing for so long now. The candles had reached the lower edge of the Bollinger bands – went to – just short of the middle of the bands and then turned down to the lower edge again. Another problem that I see here is Bollinger band that has broadened a bit and turned the snout downwards. That does not seem good. More on the candles and technicals a little bit later.
The world markets are just figures ticking here and there – with no direction really. Nikkei closed down 2.04%, Hang Seng down 2.9% and Strait Times down 1.09%. Europe was a bit better with mixed closing. FTSE closed in red by 0.77%, DAX up 0.5% and CAC down by 0.67%. The US is thankfully in green as of now – DOW up 0.99%, Nasdaq up 1.35% and S&P up 1.2%. It has become such a hogwash really – see the US direction and say where we are to open. If you want a bit more accurate prediction then see SGX Nifty trading, then to see where we are going for closing – look at the Europe closing. So do expect a positive opening especially if the US remains green.
The ADX shows bearish run (as if we could not see it) but the thing that I am putting across is the the strength is not there to push this trend any further – so this drop should finish. RSI is bad, MACD negative divergence is almost where it was – once again not showing any real increase of divergence. TRIX looks down and that too seems evident. Slow Stochastic seems to be turning back facing down and the red line is below the blue line.
So let us see how the day went today. The markets opened gap down as was expected but took solid support at S1 levels. I had frankly expected and chatted that we will now go up to the pivot levels – unfortunately the corporate results perhaps gave a jolt followed by the Educom rumour that gave the opportunity to the bears to break the S1 levels and move on to the S2 levels. Infact such was the momentum that at a stage before the closing it seemed that the markets will run down and see the S3 levels also but fortunately that was not the case and the markets bounced back somewhat – got adjusted for the closing and closed a wee bit above the 2700 levels – psychologically very important support levels. Take a look at the chart.
The pivot data for tomorrow is as under: -
R3 2884 against 2926 yesterday
R2 2824
R1 2765
Pivot 2727 against 2798 yesterday
S1 2668
S2 2630
S3 2571 against 2671 yesterday
Projected High Range 2746 to 2795
Projected Low Range 2779 to 2730
Fib Projected High 2813
Fib Projected Low 2663
BUY NF ABOVE 2730 SL 2650 TARGET 2777/2840
SELL NF BELOW 2730 SL 2777 TARGET 2650/2550
STOCKS GAME-
BUY HCLTECH ABOVE 115 SL 110 TARGET 120/125
BUY MATRIXLABS ABOVE 75 SL 70 TARGET 80/85
BUY BANK OF BARODA ABOVE 240 SL 235 TARGET 245/250
BUY BHARATI AIRTEL ABOVE 580 SL 560 TARGET 600/620
BUY BHUSANSTEEL ABOVE 295 SL 285 TARGET 305/315
BUY HINDUNILEVER ABOVE 255 SL 250 TARGET 260/265
BUY RAJESH EXPORT ABOVE 24 SL 23 TARGET 25/26
BUY UCOBANK ABOVE 28 SL 27 TARGET 29/30
SELL IOC BELOW 440 SL 450 TARGET 430/420
SELL JP HYDRO BELOW 31 SL 32 TARGET 30/29
SELL MARUTI BELOW 540 SL 555 TARGET 525/500
SELL GRASIM BELOW 1140 SL 1180 TARGET 1100/1060
SELL BHEL BELOW 1345 SL 1365 TARGET 1325/1305
SELL HINDPETRO BELOW 285 SL 290 TARGET 280/275
SELL NTPC BELOW 180 SL 185 TARGET 175/170
Sensex breaks the extreme short term range below 8900-8950. Technically sustaining below this level for 2-3 sessions gives a confirmation of triangle breakdown which could target 8300,7700 minimum and base size is more then 2k points so could be 7200-6500 also in worst case. For explanation check video posted below. We would look into further possibilities ( falll depth , long term implications , last fall etc etc ) only on 2-3 sessions of closing below this level.
Short term bias remains bearish and the next technical support comes around 8300-8500 in short term. Only a move beyond 9450 would change extreme short term view.
Stocks to watchout for :
Stocks with their support levels sustaining below which could give 5-15 % drop in bad market sentiments.
Hindalco .... below 47
RCAP ... below 395
RIL ... below 1060
Sesa Goa ... below 70
SAIL ... below 72.
COLGATE :Colgate after HUL seems another FMCG stock seeing good buying. Above 415 would be a technical breakout in short term.
LNT : Just posting back the chart again. 
BHEL :The stock is near to channel support . Break below 1300-1320 could target 1260-1210.
This looks like the start of a bigger fall. The day opened with gap down followed by an unsuccessful pullback and then again a fall in late afternoon. The closing is the lowest since December 5 (top blue line in the above chart). The 20 day ATR is at 3.98%.
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