Wednesday, January 28, 2009

NEWS

The Indian market opened on positive note and trade in positive territory through out the session and close with hand some gains. For coming session we can witness more upside towards 2803-2834 zone .On the lower side 2728-2701 zone will act as support zone .Nifty is trading in range 2650-2830 levels

Nifty's persistent positive divergence of hourly and positive world mkt cues resulted in a gap up and a steady uptrend in the main index through the day.
However, there was mixed actions in individual stocks based on settlement concerns.
Nifty's hourly technicals have reached the OverBought area and there was some negative divergences in the 5 minute charts.
Any further upsides may be resisted at 2780 to 2805 area.
Weekly trend remains DOWN.
There are strong resistances at 2845 to 2885 area. Trade consciously.











As seen from chart, 14 CCI has given a positive divergence. Price has started moving up. But we expect to see resistance 2870 and 2900 levels and support as of now is around 2660. Any upside above 2900 might be difficult to sustain.


Market saw a good relief rally last trading session. There is major gainer in market are Sterlite, Reliance Infrastructure and losers are Gail, ONGC and Suzlon.

Bulls would wish to carry the momentum to the next trading session. However, trading might turn more volatile ahead of Thursday’s F&O expiry.




NIFTY FUTURE (2767)

Supports : 2745 / 2715 / 2690 / 2670

Resistance : 2795 / 2825 / 2850 / 2950


SENSEX (9004.08)

Support : 8850 / 8705

Resistance : 9090 / 9175 / 9330 / 9750


NIFTY (2771.2)

Support : 2735 / 2710 / 2690 / 2650 / 2620

Resistance : 2790 / 2805 / 2840 / 2855




MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) down with increasing volumes indicating short covering.

Selling will emerge at higher levels, NIFTY FUT to show volatility.




On Wednesday ,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2750,Sl Below 2740,Tgt 2775-2805-2840-2890,

Sustain Below 2735,Sell with Sl Above 2745,Tgt 2720-2665-2570.




ACC : Buy Above 485-90,Sl 480,Tgt 495/500/510

TATA MOTORS : Buy Above 140,Sl 138,Tgt 145/147/150

Buy ADLABS Above 165,Tgt 170/175,Sl 160

Buy LNT Above 645,Sl 615,Tgt 680/700


Buy SBIN (1088 ),Sloss Below 1065,Tgt 1100-1115

Buy MARUTI Above 540,Tgt 555-570—605,Sl 530

Buy HLL Above 255,Tgt 260-265-270,Sl 245

Buy ESSAROIL Above 73,Tgt 76/79/84,Sl 70

Buy FINTECH Above 480,Tgt 485/490/500,Sl 475


Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 450,Tgt 445-435-415,Sl 460

Sell BIOCON Below 100,Tgt 95-90-80,Sl 105

Sell HDFCBANK Below 890,Tgt 880-865-835,Sl 900

Sell TCS Below 500,Tgt 490-475-450,Sl 510

Sell SUZLON Sl 50,Tgt 40




STERLITE

Buy Above 270,Tgt 275/280,Sl 268

Sell Below 264,Tgt 260/255,Sl 266


INFOSYS

Buy Above 1265,Tgt 1280/1300,Sl 1255

Sell Below 1240,Tgt 1225/1205,Sl 1250


ONGC

Buy Above 625,Tgt 635/645,Sl 620

Sell Below 615,Tgt 605/595,Sl 620




FUTURES


Buy PANTALOON Jan @169/70,Sl 166,Tgt 172/173.8/175.5/177/178.6/180.6 (Lot : 500)

REL (539.6) : Buy @ 515/20,Sl 510,Tgt 540/550/565

RIL (1227) : Buy @ 1205,Sl 1185,Tgt 1245/1250



Sell CENTURYTEXT Jan @ 157/59,Sl 162,Tgt 155/153.6/152/150.5/147.4/145.8 (Lot : 212)



SBIN (1089):

Buy @ 1065/75,Sl 1060,Tgt 1095/1115/1125

Or

Sell @ 1125/1135,Sl 1145,Tgt 1090/1080


Good morning everybody. It was a very difficult decision for me yesterday to give a call that the markets will go green inspite of the technicals that were hovering negative – even if they did not really have too much of strength. Picture1Even for daily basis it is difficult to go against the trend as the fear of saying wrong weighs heavily on the mind. All the same I am glad that the markets did go up – only thing that i am not too happy is that I had expected Resistance 2 to be tested by nifty that never happened. The markets opened just short of the R1 and tested it once – then confidently moved above it – and remained above – closing at 2770. The Pivot – if you would have seen is below at 2701 and R2 above at 2805.

The global cues today are mixed to say the least. Nikkei had closed yesterday in green by 4.93% and the other markets were closed. The European markets opened flat – tried to go green and failed – they then fell deep in red only to rally in the last hour of trade to end absolutely flat. FTSE was down just 0.35% and DAX down 0.08% and CAC down just 0.03%. Believe me when I say that this was an achievement of sorts. US opened green and when I saw the indices I saw them dropping to red and my heart sank – just a day of rally and they are already sinking red? but earnings from US Steel corp and American express – that managed to post profits in present times boosted the morale enough to make them go green and then remain green thereafter. DOW ended 0.72%, Nasdaq up 1.04% and S&P up 1.09%. It is Nikkei here in Asia opened flat – went green and then red that is a small cause for worry. but it too may recover by the time we open. Strait Times i up 2.35%. daily 27 Jan 09

On our candles – it was a good white candle. The candles have moved away from the Bollinger Bands and hopefully the run should be upto the middle of the bands and in the best case to the upper edge of the bands. So if you are interested in initiating shorts – then the first levels should be around 2850-2900 and second set around 3100. As I see it we have has three peaks in 3100-3200 region and if we do not cross this resistance or whatever then the downside may be larger than what we have seen in recent times. Other than this no lower term EMA has yet crossed the higher term EMA so too much trust on this uptrend may be counter productive. ADX is still bad – DI- has looked down but the DI+ has not correspondingly moved up really.MACD still remains negative but divergence has reduced further. RSi is still negative but looks up.Slow Stochastic red line has crossed the blue line so mildly positive we can say. TRIX is still looking down and I really do not know what will cheer it up.

There were 638 stocks advancing on nifty and 544 declining and the ratio is 1.172794. The Pivot data is as under:

R3 2869 against 2869 yesterday
R2 2836
R1 2803
Pivot 2744 against 2701 yesterday
S1 2711
S2 2652
S3 2619 against 2533 on yesterday
Projected High Range 2774 to 2820
Projected Low Range 2734 to 2688
Fib Projected High 2802
Fib Projected Low 2659


INDEX GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2777 SL 2730 TARGET 2840/2800
SELL NF BELOW 2777 SL 2840 TARGET 2730/2650


STOCKS GAME-
BUY ABB ABOVE 470 SL 460 TARGET 480/490
BUY BAJAJHIND ABOVE 56 SL 54 TARGET 58/60
BUY BANKBARODA ABOVE 240 SL 230 TARGET 250/260
BUY BHEL ABOVE 1380 SL 1360 TARGET 1400/1420
BUY CAIRN ABOVE 160 SL 155 TARGET 165/170
BUY DLF ABOVE 165 SL 160 TARGET 170/175
BUY MARUTI ABOVE 535 SL 525 TARGET 545/555
BUY RELINFRA ABOVE 540 SL 520 TARGET 560/580
BUY TATAPOWER ABOVE 740 SL 725 TARGET 755/770
BUY ICSA ABOVE 88 SL 84 TARGET 92/96
BUY KSOIL ABOVE 43 SL 41 TARGET 45/47
BUY UNIPHOS ABOVE 92 SL 88 TARGET 96/100
BUY ZEEL ABOVE 98 SL 94 TARGET 102/106
BUY STAR ABOVE 73 SL 70 TARGET 76/79
BUY GUJRAT ALAKLI ABOVE 68 SL 65 TARGET 71/74
SELL ASIAN PAINT BELOW 800 SL 820 TARGET 780/760
SELL PATELENG BELOW 140 SL 145 TARGET 135/130
SELL IOC BELOW 430 SL 440 TARGET 420/410

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex manages to pullback after 3-4 sessions of slow downmoves. Although the immediate supports were around 8500-8300 levels the index has pulled back from 8630 itself. Such a move is taking place because of low volume support to the breakdown. Till we dont see higher volumes in downtrend the volatility would remain with such floppy moves. Only a move beyond 9400 would mean a reversal in short term.

Trading pullbacks and flip-flop moves would be difficult till we dont see a larger price action and volume supporting current trend.


Stocks to watchout for :

Colgate seems to be a breakout buy on dips with a stop of 395-400 for short term. Difficult stock to trade though.

Many stocks have pulled back but we need to see for a couple of sessions before taking trades. So no new calls as of now. We did some bounces in banking stocks as expected and some more is possible. Trades if any could be initiated in the day so cant be updated here.

CRUDE AND GOLD UPDATES :

CRUDE :

Some weeks back had discussed about the big difference in current month ( 32-33) and next mth contracts ( 40-42) .Also as expected we did see a bounce close to 49 + levels. As of now the range seems to be 35-50 and only a move beyond 50 would imply a quick move. Other moves could be diff in contracts.

Gold :
Although gold has knocked highs in rupee terms at 14k + the dollar equivalent at 910 is still shy of the high of the 1000-1020 mark.

In the short term 920-930 would be a major resistance and rise to it would be shorting opportunity with a stop of 939 for a dip back to sub 900. Only a move beyond 930 would surprise the streets with a straight long shoot.









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