SELL AXIS BANK BELOW 482 TGT 457>449 STOPLOSS 493
Last week nifty fell by 6 % with the satyam scam episode and broken the sentiment of India investor .For coming session2800-2770 level to watch if nifty close below it on closing basis we can drift lower 2630 zone. On the upside if nifty close above key levels 2947 it can test 3010-3060 zone .
The Indian market opened lower note on satyam scam and close with red zone .For coming session nifty is forming ‘M’ pattern if nifty crack below 2800 and close below it will drift lower levels near 2650-2630 zone .On the other side 2925 -2970 will act as resistances zone .morning thoughts..
The week that is gone gave huge scars to corporate governance and stock markets .
The entire sentiment was disturbed by the satyam saga and many investors were taken aback on confidence and trust ,leaving apart the huge losses incurred.
However the government and the related authorities are taking required steps to restore the lost…we hope that such incidents donot happen as it scars the image of corporate govenance and India as a whole.
Coming to the markets the indices have reacted from the high resistance zones of 10300-500 and has taken supports at the lower crucial supports zones of 9050- 9200.
Technically the markets looks weak and volatile , but the crucial supports to watch is 9200 and 9050.
This levels are likely to provide some supports to the markets , however a breach of this levels and again incur a steep fall.
Maintaing this levels will again see a pullback upto 10200 levels , but will again require a closing above 10500 to negate the trend.
From a trading point of view one should look closely the crucial supports at 9200 and 9050.
The coming session looks highly volatile with a probable two side movement
The supports for the nifty is 2775 levels and resistance at 3010 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 9050 levels and resistance at 9900 levels
Mercury -- the Messenger God in mythology and the ruler of transportation and communication turns retrograde in Aquarius on January 11. This is the first of the four Mercury retrogrades happening in 2009 and lasts till January 31 or February 1 , when he halts and begins his return to direct motion through the zodiac
Mercury is the planet that rules all forms of communication and any time a planet turns retrograde it is time to review. So, when Mercury turns around and goes back through territory it's already traversed, it is time for you, too, to travel back. Don't try to institute plans for the future. Instead see if you can lay the groundwork to provide a secure foundation. Mercury's current placement in Aquarius makes this a wonderful time to break away from old habits and ideas. Mercury will move back into Capricorn on January 21 in its retrograde motion creating disruptions or breakdowns in communications and administrative details. Since this sign also signifies ambitions, it might see us trying to push through own agendas and gain status or rise in life. Jupiter, the Sun, and Mars will also all cross Mercury as he moves along his backwards path, and those days could prove to be significant.
Mercury conjuncts Jupiter on January 19 -- this might be a time for reflections, and old friends can come back into our lives. On January 20, Inauguration Day in the United States, the Sun will conjunct Mercury in the first degrees of Aquarius. The new President is sure to have some very important messages for us on how he is going to clean up the mess left for him from the past and with Aquarius involved, he may have some new and unique ideas. Retrograde Mercury conjuncts Mars in Capricorn on January 27, and Venus will be sending them some positive energy at the same time. The Solar eclipse of January 26 formed by the Sun and Moon will definitely make us ready for some changes.
So how will this Mercury retrograde period affect each one of us? It all depends on how Mercury is positioned in our natal charts. Mercury will transit from 8 degrees Aquarius to 22 degrees Capricorn. First look at which House or Houses in your chart that Mercury will be traveling through. You will probably find that the areas in your life that these Houses cover will be put on hold, and you will probably show little progress. Next, if you have any planets that are placed within these degrees, and it is likely that you may have some changes forced upon you or you may be presented with opportunities disguised as problems.
Stocks to watch
Infosys , reliance , rnrl , dcb , mcdowell looks positively poised
Siemens , rel infra looks weak
Auto and cement sector will remain strong throughout the week
Daily chart
Nifty has broken trend line support of 2910 and after 9 September 2008 only twice Nifty has broken 55 EMA and again started trading below that. Nifty has Major support at 2747 if it breaks on closing basis then we may see October low (2252) again in short term. Market will be bullish only above 3065 which is 55 EMA. Currently all indicators and oscillators are in negative zone and by looking at all this evidence upper side movement looks very remote and do not hold your longs if breaks below 2747 on closing basis.
Daily Chart Support:- 2747 on closing basis
Daily Chart Resistance:-3065 on clsing basis
Weekly Chart
Nifty has formed double bottom on weekly chart at 2810 level which will worked as a strong support for longs. Weekly RSI, Stochastic is in negative zone and MACD is in positive zone. By looking at weekly chart it looks like there is some amount of consolidation faze is on and moving northward is quite remote like daily chart. One thing to note here is 13 weeks EMA which is 3053 level will work as a good zone for longs. After 8 august 2008 Nifty has tried so many times to cross 13 Week EMA but failed in all time.
Weekly Chart Support:-2810 on closing basis
Weekly Chart Resistance:- 3053 on closing basis
Conclusion
Nifty has two major support on closing basis i.e. 2810/2747 and Major Resistance on closing basis is at 3053/3065 either side breakout will give us continuation of trend.
One more conclusion is if Nifty breaks below 2810 but remain above 2747 it indicates start reducing your long position and be cautious.
SATYAM SHOCK PROVED TO BE BIG SENTIMENT REVERSAL FOR ALL MARKET .
NIFTY CLOSED ABOVE SUPPORT AREA 2805 THAT IS ONE BIG POSSITIVE THING . NIFTY NEED TO CROSS 2940 TO GAIN MOMENTUM FOR BULLS . WE FEEL WE WILL BE IN RANGE TILL RESULT START COMING AND THEN WILL TAKE ONE SIDE MOVE .
ABOVE CHART SHOWS ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION RESTING NEAR TRENDLINE THIS WAS TRIGGER WE USED TO PREDICT SHORT TERM RISE FROM 2550 LAST TIME.
THE BEST IDEA HERE IS TO WAIT FOR TREND TO CLEAR AND THEN TAKE DIRECTION .
BULLS REQUIRE 2940 TO BREAK UPSIDE FOR NEXT MOMEMTUM TO RESUME
BEARS NEED TO BREAK 2777-70 AREA AND CLOSE BELOW FOR DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT .
NIFTY FUTURE
ABOVE 2890 TARGET 2937-2977
BELOW 2853 TARGET 2835-2803
** Due to High and Huge Volatility, lots of rumors in market giving less calls for today.
MARKETCALLS VIEW ON NIFTY TODAY :
Due to Satyam episode Nifty will be heavily volatile, my advise is sit away till 12.30 noon from market. Nifty is having medium support of 2802.
-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
One small step at a time the market recovery was being built up and suddenly it goes up in smoke – poof… and why? One corporate house of the country that did the vanishing trick with the name they built – Satyam. So much has been said about them that I will try not to mention any more. Our markets were not doing bad – we were building the house brick by brick – as put across by IndiaBulls in their monthly report. The stimulus package here and the actions by the US govt there alongwith the rest of the world was being slowly digested by the world and there was a recovery here – volatility – and recovery there – basically we were climbing up one small step at a time. And then came the Indian home brewed story of mega corruption and we all fall down. We have basically have had two days of the fall – two big black candles to speak of. Frankly there are now indications that we have had enough of fall already. The second candle made on the Nifty and so many other important stocks is of a hammer. Technically many may brush aside such a formation as it came after a doji and a black candle – such a signal to be meaningful should have come after a trend – downtrend to be precise – but I could not help and observe – the markets did try to recover on friday. Was that my imagination or there was something else to it. Perhaps the traders did not want to carry their positions of profit over the weekend – or perhaps there is a feeling that the news driving the markets did not deserve the kind of attention it really got – they are debatable and I am not going into a debate at all. But I do feel that the shorters’ can get trapped if they are not careful as there is a chance that the markets will bounce back for whatever it is worth.
We are expecting our GDP to settle around 7% – give or take some. the IIP data is bad and exports are likely to remain bad for some months to come. The next sectors to hit might be the service sector – because of the reduced consumer spending. But all is not bad – the inflation is on its way to touch 3-4% by march and that by itself is no small feat. The crude that had a spike recently was more due to the middle east tensions and Russia cutting off gas in Europe. It will get resolved and the prices should stabilise. The banks will finally come on to the rate cuts – that they have been resisting so far and have offered half hearted cuts only. There should be another fuel price cut and that should make the things easier soon. The soft monetary policy pursued by RBI will continue and we may have some more stimulus package even though denied at the moment by the govt. The FII money inflow should remain positive in the coming months. All in all – I strongly believe that the last two black candles were an aberration and the up swing should continue – albeit at a more careful pace perhaps.
If that be so I still do not feel that everyone will do well…
Real Estate – no go – the worst is yet to come. The valuations are not related to the ground realities. The markets have not crashed but I am sure that big names should be in trouble in times to come.
IT – should survive – but will be under pressure. The rupee as I see it will definitely strengthen, and the pricing will be more competitive… growth will be hit. Infosys results are around the corner and they are likely to beat expectations as the rupee has been weak – and then the ball will roll down.
Banking – Will do better than expected. Indian banking – especially the govt owned banks are the place to be.
Auto – less said the better at the moment.
Gas – don’t miss the bus – if you have believe me this is the place to be. blindly trust me and park a percentage of your money here. There may not be any great positive news in near future – but neither will be any negative news and the demand is going to grow exponentially.
FMCG is also likely to do good in near future.
I have left out some sectors – will talk about them some other time. Now what you read on top was what I felt – but the candles tell a different story altogether and I have been pondering hard. The story they tell is bad and bad – Firstly the Bollinger bands have expanded, 5 EMA has almost dropped below the 20 EMA, the candles have come to the lower band from trailing the upper band in a jiffy. The volumes accompanying were quite high. MACD has had a bearish crossover and says – sell. RSI is bearish, Slow Stochastic is bearish. Reading the ADX is an art so do not blame me if I get it wrong – I feel the down trend is loosing steam – Jaggu says that it is bearish – take your pick. TRIN as said by Jaggu is bearish – you can and should visit his blog to get an idea. TRIX has started looking down again. We have some lower targets now.
Time to see the magic of the Pivots – the markets did not see the pivot levels on Friday. They went down to the Fib lower expected band and definitely recovered but nowhere where we would have wanted it to be.Any ways – it could have been worse – seen the S2 and S3 levels as per – had the S1 broken – but then that’s the magic of Fibonacci.
R3 3048 against 3406 on Friday
R2 2989
R1 2931
Pivot 2870 against 2985 on Friday
S1 2812
S2 2751
S3 2693 against 2564 on Friday
Projected High Range 2901 to 2960
Projected Low Range 2897 to 2838
Fib Projected High 2961
Fib Projected Low 2777
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