NEWSLETTER

(Inder Bhatia)

Weekly Nifty resistances 2919 -3012

The Indian market opened gap-up note and sustain throughout the session and close in green zone .For coming session we can see pullback towards 2885 -2920 zone. On the lower side -2730 will act as support zone.

BUY BALRAMPUR CHINI ABOVE 54.10 TGT 58>63 STOPLOSS 52.50

Last week nifty ended marginally in the red with 1.55% . For coming week nifty is showing some mixed cues on weekly chart nifty had formed “DOJI” pattern. If nifty trade above 2860 it can test 2920-2932 zone. On the lower side closing below2780 it will test lower levels 2735 – 2701 levels. On the upside we can see strong resistances breaking below 2701levels again testing 2630-2540 zones .

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BUY RELIANCES INDSABOVE 1225 TGT 1265>1281STOPLOSS 1205

Nifty View on Weekly Chart

Nifty weekly chart has formed “Hammer “ which suggest some amount of pull back in market in next week but in addition to this if we talk on intermediate term then Nifty has formed “Symmetrical Triangle Pattern” pattern which has given bearish breakout and below 2700 (on closing basis) we may see 2307/2260/2074 in short term. Upper side looks remote at this juncture and Trader should use every rally to exit their long position. Weekly RSI is in neutral region, Stochastic is exhibiting negative region and MACD has given positive divergence.

Support:- 2755/2700 (Major Support)

Resistance:- 2878/2891/2918

Nifty View on Daily Chart

Nifty EOD chart has formed “Long white candle “ which suggest bullish trend to continue in coming days and “Double top” has formed at 2835 level above this we may see some bullish formation on chart. Like weekly chart, Daily chart has also formed “Symmetrical Triangle Pattern” which suggest bearish formation for intermediate term but only below 2700-2695 level. Stochastic and RSI is exhibiting positive divergence and MACD has given Negative divergence.

Support:-2800/2782

Resistance:- 2835/2853/2867

Nifty January Future (2815)

NF has formed “Double Top” at 2826 level on daily chart. Above 2826 it may test 2850/2875/2889 where has support formed at 2779.

Reliance Industries (1217)

Stock has potential to move up to 1275-1290 level (intra Day) and very strong support formed at 1181 level on closing basis. 1255 is a level where stock will form very bullish break out on channel line and sustain above this we may see 1325 (positional swing Trade Target)

Trade with Positive Bias.

SBI (1164)

Stock has formed “Double Top” at 1177 level sustain above this it may test 1191/1210 level and trend line support formed at 1150 Level.

BHEL (1404)

Stock has formed “Double Top” at 1410 sustain above this it may test 1445 and support formed at 1382.

Tata Power (773)

Stock has formed “Double Top” at 777 above this it may test 800/815 and support forms at 758

Gail (208)

Stock has formed “Morning Star Pattern”. Above 210 it may test 221/224 and support formed at 202.

Moser Baer (68)

Trade with positive bias above 68 with stop loss of 65.50 Target 74/76

Those who can not keep adequate Stop Loss please do not trade in my Calls.

Markets were volatile last week but rebounded again.

Satyam saga still continuous as Raju wants a bail.

Markets cherished on Friday on account of global cues.

Now Inflation is at 11 months low at 5.24%.

Nifty is now in slaggy mode. Expect a range bounded movement from here.

NIFTY has a support at 2790 and 2710 and a resistace at 2950 and 3025.

Only if NIFTY crosses 2950 we would touch 3000 mark.

Simple Moving Averages -

5 D	8 D	13 D	20 D	39 D	50 D	200 D
2784	2853	2920	2940	2861	2877	3981

We are currently in 50 D moving averages. If crossed we can reach 3K mark.

Fibonacci price projections-

	0%	61.8%	100%	161.8%	261.8%
Up	2813	3019	3147	3353	3687
Dn	3147	2941	2813	2607	2273

Chart -

(Ilango)

When you are down with your problems, stuck in a mess, brooding over your misery, you meet a person who pours out all his sufferings to you and you listen to him patiently. You understand his mental agony and you find yourself helping that person in someway to overcome his problems. You are so involved in solving his problems, for a moment you have forgotten all yours and in that detached state of mind , you find a way out of yours. It has been put forth in a more eloquent way by one of my favourite writers.

Excerpts from "Like the flowing river" by Paulo Coelho.(One of my favourites)


An acquaintance of mine ended up in serious financial difficulty because he could never manage to bring together dream and reality. Worse, he dragged others down with him, harming people he had no wish to harm.
Unable to repay the debts he had accumulated, he even considered suicide. Then one afternoon, as he was walking down a street, he saw a house in ruins. "That building is me," he thought, and at that precise moment, he felt an immense desire to rebuild that house.
He found out who the owner was and offered to carry out the necessary work; the owner agreed, although he couldn't understand what my friend stood to gain. Together they managed to get hold of roof tiles, wood and cement. My friend put his whole heart into the work, though without knowing why or for whom. But as the renovation work progressed, he felt his personal life improving.
By the end of the year, the house was ready. And all his personal problems had been resolved.

(Ilango)

Nifty confirmed the reversal for the fall from 3147 to 2701. If it is a corrective rally, a retracement of 38% will be at 2870 and a 50% will be at 2924.The critical 2780 which held in intraday corrections is a level to be protected by Bulls.
If it is another leg of a complex rally, it may go past the previous high. Presently, we will watch the immediate resistance levels and the likely support points & how well they resist & hold.
Weekly trend is still down & only a weekly close above 2900 will change it.
However, the daily trend has turned up after the hourly turned up this morning at 10.00 AM.
US mkts being closed on Monday, our mkts should rally further into Monday.









(Ilango)

Nifty is trading in a range of 2700/2750 to 2800/2850 for the last 4 days after last week's big fall.
Positive divergences persisting in hourly charts. Till the hour closes above 2750, trade these ranges.
There is an immediate resistance at 2770-2780 area, above which the gap of today at 2992 -2811.There is supports at 2715-2735 area.
Break of 2700 will lead to 2650 & then to 2600.So Keep 2700 as SL for fresh longs.
If there is a positive cue, the likely trading range may be 2735 to 2785/2815/2825/2850..

19/01/09
NIFTY RANG CMP 2828....BUY 2830 ...
TARGET 2854/2874/2888...&SELL BELOW 2780..
TARGET..2740/ 2710/2690.....&

NOTE:NIFTY FUTURE TRADERS

2874@2894 EXIT LEVAL

drjcshah)

Important notes

1) Trading system Is useful for positional traders and short term traders.

2) It is not useful for day traders.

3) If buy call is generated then keep stoploss of 3d LMA.(reduction of 50 % is advisable if closes below 3d SMA).

4) If short call is generated then keep stoploss of 3d HMA.(reduction of 50 % is advisable if closes above 3d SMA).

5) Investors should buy nifty at the money puts whenever short call is generated in nifty to protect there portfolio.

6) Keep an eye on weekly close, as in a generated long call gives better returns if we are trading above weekly close, reverse is true for short call.

7) It is advisable to book partial profit when ever you are in good profit.

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per technical Nifty exactly close near breakout level 2826.. Now for 2826 works as momentum level ..Above 2826 momentum seems up, below 2826 momentum down.. Watch important level and Next breakout level 2850/2863..Momentum turn strong only once break this level and close above it for coming days.. Our strategy for 19^th Jan up to 2800 buy on deep sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 2850/2863/2892/2925/2975/2990.. Supports at 2815/2800/2750/2725/2700..

forecast

Market may open up. Market may up between 10.20 and 10.50 Market may steady or up side between 13.35 and 14.02. Market may close at up to previous closing.




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Opening Bell Call
Buy

SATYAMCOMP - Satyam Computer Services Ltd
PUNJLLOYD - Punj Lloyd Limited
BHEL - Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd
LT - Larsen & Toubro Limited
AXISBANK - Axis Bank Limited
BALRAMCHIN - Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

On 16th January 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 9323 (up 276 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2828 (Up 91 points).

Opening Bell Call
Sell

BAJAJHIND - Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd
HEROHONDA - Hero Honda Motors Ltd.
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
TATACHEM - Tata Chemicals Ltd.
GAIL - GAIL (India) Limited
CARBORUNIV - Carborundum Universal Ltd

Technical Analysis for 19th January 2009

BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 9224, 9183, 9113, 9043, 8932, 8821, 8710, 8599
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 9265, 9335, 9405, 9446, 9487, 9589, 9709, 9820

NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 2776, 2756, 2720, 2684, 2629, 2573, 2518, 2462
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 2795, 2831, 2867, 2887, 2906, 2962, 3017, 3073

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