Market views has been explained in the image.
Nifty Close: 2846
Support : 2825, 2810, 2750
Resistance : 2855, 2875, 2920
Trend reversal level of this fall is placed at 2855 Nifty spot level & if we fall & close below 2750 level then we can see more profit booking or fresh shorts can be initiated with trail stop loss.
Reliance pack as we are recomending since last many to free sms group members by sms have benefitted by gaining around 5 - 10 % in just few quick sessions.
PROVISIONAL FIGURES RS CRORES FOR 19 JANUARY 2009
Fii -363
Dii +276
Fii(deri) -456
The attached chart really says it all..
Before I go on to discuss the chart, let me first explain what the chart contains. The chart is of daily NIFTY along with 2 daily T3 averages in red and blue, weekly T3 average in yellow and Monthly T3 average in bright green.
This week, the weekly T3 has slipped below the monthly - an occurrence which has spelled gloom for Nifty in the last year. The last time when this crossover did not work was in October - November 2005 - and we were in middle of a roaring bull market at that time.. Therefore, given the propensity of this crossover to work - I would be very apprehensive about holding any meaningful longs in the Indian markets for the near term.. On the other hand, if this crossover fails to bring a sell-off, then markets should display bullish tendencies on the reverse cross-over.
* We track trends of stocks, bonds, forex and commodity prices, and state them as they are. Trailing stop losses are changed when necessary.
* No forecasts, No predictions. We state what we decipher.
* Interest rates, bond prices and bond yields eventually determine the direction of stock prices. We track all these four vital determinants to continually examine "conditions" of the marketplace.
* The bond market usually changes direction long before stocks do; therefore, the bond market is a leading indicator of potential trend-changes in stocks.
* Commodity prices usually trend in the opposite direction of the dollar.
* A rising dollar is bad for commodities; a falling dollar is good for commodities.
* A rising dollar is normally good for US stocks and bonds because it is non-inflationary.
* A strong currency attracts foreign money into a country's stock markets.
* Emphasis on quality of calls rather than quantity of calls
* Integrated approach in our research & analysis.
* Price alone is truth , rest do not matter. Bhav Bhagwan Hain. Bakhi sab Bakwas
* Tracking the Indian & Global Financial Markets since 1996
Nifty - 2828.45(+91.75)
Sensex - 9323.59 (+276.85)
Short Term Turning Dates (+/- 1 Day)* -
(* Effect can start few hours to 1 day earlier)
Jan 20th (** Downward U-Turn expected on late 20th or early 21st - Signal Strength Medium **)
Jan 22nd (** Upward U-Turn expected for next 1 Day - Signal Strength Medium **)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty appears to be heading for 2500 & below .Many important stocks are giving bearish indications in extreme short term & Nifty close below 2700 will confirm the bearish targets. On the bullish side, Nifty can go up to 2910 where lot of profit booking is likely to emerge. " Nifty opened with a positive gap on positive cues from global markets & comfortably crossed the resistance of 2770 & continued its upward march to fill the opening gap of Thursday & touched an intra day high of 2835 before closing at 2828, about 91 points above the previous close. In this process, Nifty is having made a kind of "Double Bottom" having resistance at 2850, breakout from where may target 2975-3000 in next couple of sessions.
As far as, EST charts are concerned, Nifty has taken a pullback move after breakout from 2800 & it has made "Double Bottom" pattern around 2710. In case, Nifty breaks the resistance to Re-enter the pattern it may move up further to touch level of 2975-3010 & failure to cross this level may result in decline to 2500 in coming sessions.
Sector wise, most of the sugar, steel, power, telecom, chemicals, select banking stocks were among the top gainers of the day whereas most infrastructure, media, cement, brokerage stocks were under selling pressure & declined during the day. As far as A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 1.1:1 with 552 declines & 634 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty is placed at crucial resistance of 2850, bullish breakout may target 2910 & 3010 in coming sessions whereas failure to cross this level may expedite the process of decline towards 2500 with hurdle at 2700.appears to be heading for 2500 & below . The best strategy would be to concentrate on mid cap stocks which have given bullish breakout in hourly charts & book profit in large cap overbought stocks which are showing weakness in short to medium term.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (19th January - 23rd January 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Volatile Market with rise in part of the week.
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, 5 planets i.e. Sun, Jupiter (Combust), Mercury (Retrograde), Rahu and Neptune are placed in Capricorn, Venus and Uranus are transiting in Aquarius, Mars and Pluto are in Sagittarius. Saturn (R) is stationed in Leo. Ketu is placed in Cancer. Moon will Transit through Libra, Scorpio and Sagittarius during this week. Many planetary events will take place between 26th Jan to 01st Feb like, 26th Jan (New Moon), 27th Jan (Retrograde Mercury enters Sagittarius), 28th Jan (Mars enters Capricorn, while Venus enters Pisces), 01st Feb (Mercury turning Direct).Solar Eclipse on 26th ( Holiday in India) will make market rise for couple of days after initial decline.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit Sun, Mercury and Jupiter will Conjunct with each other in Capricorn during this week. Mercury will conjunct Jupiter on 19th Jan which is a Bullish signature, Sun and Mercury will be at 0 degree on 20th Jan which is again a bullish sign. Sun will conjunct Jupiter on 24th which is also favorable to bulls. In addition to that Mars Trine with Tr Saturn on 24th is also bullish. In NSE Natal Chart - Tr Sun will have sextile aspect with Natal Pluto which can turn market volatile.T mars conjunction with Natal Neptune (24th)is a bullish sign Uranus is bearish aspect. Tr Venus sextile aspect with Natal Neptune can cause fall from 22nd Jan. On the other hand Tr Mercury conjunction Tr Jupiter on 19th is a Bullish Signature. Tr Sun Conjunction with Tr Jupiter is also a Bullish Sign. Tr Mars Trine aspect with Tr Saturn can also lift the market from 24th. In BSE Natal Chart - T Jupiter Square aspect with Natal Neptune on 18th is bullish. Tr Venus Trine aspect with Natal Sun on 19th is bullish but Tr Sun square aspect with Neptune can give sudden jerk on 20th. In Transit charts Sun-Mercury / Mercury-Jupiter/ Sun-Jupiter conjunction this week is bullish for market. T Mars Trine aspect with Tr Saturn is also a Bullish aspect.
Moon's transit through Libra is generally a Bullish indications but market may take down turn with Moon's entry to Scorpio for 1-2 Days. Upward U-Turn can be expected in later part of Scorpio and till about 20 degree in Sagittarius. However Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, it appears, that Market is likely to be very volatile with many ups and downs. Market may be bullish for first 1.5-2.5 days followed by decline of 2 days and it may recover from 23rd onward. Caution - Market will remain volatile ( 2 days up, 2 days down....) with swings on late 20th/21st and next week on 27th. Traders & Investors are advised to be very cautious as market can touch both 2450 and 3000 in next 2-4 weeks.
Astrologically there are "2 Turning Dates this week - both Medium". Most of the Indices like Nifty/ Nifty Future/Bank Nifty/Nifty MidCap/ CNXIT likely to decline in 2nd parts of 20th or 21st and recover from 2nd half of 22nd. Trading/ investing in big way may be avoided.
Trading Strategy - Keeping in mind the different Astrological Turning Dates during the week, For conservative Traders "Selective Buying on Tuesday (19th) to Book Profit on Tuesday (20th) and Select Buying on Wednesday (22nd) to Book Profit on Friday (23rd) likely to give good returns during the week as far as Nifty Futures, Nifty, Nifty-Madcap and Sensex are concerned.
Important Dates
20th January (+/- 1 Day)**
22 January (+/- 1 Day)**
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver/ Copper
Crude Oil is showing weakness for weakness for first 2 days of this week followed by rise from 21st/ 22nd Jan. Gold, is showing bullishness during this week. Mid-week fall can be utilized for buying again for 1-2 days. Silver is also showing bullish trend in the first half of the week followed by corrective decline and rise again in later part of the week.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, It is likely to be volatile. Rupee may show some strength on 20th and 23rd January after initial weakness.
US Markets
Astrologically, US Markets may be bullish initially for first 2-3 days followed by decline in the later part of the week.
Technical Stock Recommendations (Short Term)
Stock has made "Triple Bottom" pattern in last 5 days of hourly charts having resistance at 79. Another close above 79 can target 86-88 in coming sessions. Short term buying can be contemplated once the stock moves/stays above 79 using SL of Rs.3/- & target of 86-88 in coming days.
Tata Power(774)
Stock has made "Ascending Triangle" pattern in charts of last few days having resistance at 775. Another close above 775 can target 825-830 in coming sessions. Short term buying can be contemplated once the stock moves/stays above 775 using SL of Rs.15/- & target of 825-830 in coming days.
Renuka Sugar(72.2)
Stock has given bullish breakout from a "Inverted Head & Shoulder" pattern having resistance at 70 breakout from where stock may target 77-78 in coming sessions. Short term buying can be contemplated on declines till 70 using SL of Rs.3/- & target of 77-78 in coming days.
Jet Airways(157.50)
Stock has given bullish breakout from a "Inverted Head & Shoulder" pattern having resistance at 156-157 breakout from where stock may target 180+ in coming sessions. Short term buying can be contemplated on declines till 154 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 180+ in coming days.
TVS Motors(16.45)
Stock has declined sharply from 24.5 to 16.5 in last few sessions putting EST momentum indicators in oversold zones with positive divergences which can initiate technical recovery to 18.75-19 in near term. Short term buying can be contemplated on declines till 16 using SL of Rs.1.50/- & target of 18.75-19 in coming days.
The Indian market opened on flat note and trade in narrow range throughout the session and close in dot green zone .For the coming session 2895 -2910 zone will act resistances zone on the lower side 2801-2775 will act support zone . Nifty is witness side way movement .SHORT SELL Suzlon Energy Stop Loss 59 Target 42
SHORT SELL HDIL Stop Loss 124 Target 82
SHORT SELL GVK Power & Infrastructure Stop Loss 23 Target 16
SHORT SELL IFCI Stop Loss 23 Target 16
With US Mkts closed for two days, the trading range is expected to be 2780/2800 to 2860/2880 unless US futures become active to "Obama's speech".
The action, thus far, resembles a counter rally to the fall from 3147 to 2701.
Overbought hourly started to correct at the last hour and might find supports at 2820/2800/2780. Trade light.
A very good article in ET about Smart Money, posted in VFM by CDMoorthy worth a read and it is an improved version of the Volatality index.
Presently the 20DMA(2928) is above the 50 DMA(2872) but it has turned down and falling towards the 50 DMA. 3,077.50, 3039.3, 2968.65, 2916.85 & 2857.25 - these are the closing levels to look for in the coming 5 days.If closes above these levels, 20 DMA may turn up, giving bullish momentum. Mon-Wed levels will not come as US mkts are closed for 2 days, so no decisive action till wed unless US futures gets active.
So watch out for Thursday closing above 2917 and Fridays closing above 2858.
Strategy:- Keeping the weekly sell signal in place, aggressive traders may short around 2880 to 2920 area with a SL of 2950. Also buy 2800 PE & 2700 PE when Nifty trades at 2850 & above.
As of now, we are trading at the lower band of the Jan. series..2701 - 3147 and just about done a 38% retracement(2870).Then there is the 50% retracement at 2924. So build a short positions with some hedging which could be squared off once a decisive move below a two day low happens (whenever that may be).
We should also watch US mkts for any sign of decisiveness as S&P500 also bouncing after a steep fall like Nifty.
Nifty :: Once again an Spinning top candle pattern occurred near last high.. A Spinning top can be sign that prices are losing momentum and bulls may be in trouble.. For 20th Jan Check support 2815/2800 below it next strong support 2770 .. Close below 2770 give more weakness up to next key support zone 2725 to 2700.. Our strategy for 20th Jan Sell at high (S.L 2870) Buy on deep.. Resistance for up move at 2869/2888/2900/2915.. Supports 2815/2800/2770/2725/2712/2700..
(Still Nifty is in upward mid term channel and that’s why avoid selling near key support zone between 2700 to 2725... If this leg may be 7 (a-b-c-d-e-f-g) corrective legs of 6th (f) may be touch 2600/2630 sooner or letter as per our last weekly post once breaks key support 2700)
ndian ADRs: Market shut
Results today: Dr. Reddy’s, Hero Honda, Fortis Healthcare, NIIT, Polaris, Reliance Capital, Reliance Petroleum, United Breweries
Results today: AIA Engineering, Alstom Projects, Crew B.O.S., Emkay Global, Gati, Hikal, HT Media, ICI India, JK Paper, KS Oils, Kirloskar Brothers, LIC Housing, Mahindra Lifespace, Mangalore Refinery, Nagarjuna Fertilizer, Punjab Chemicals, Shyam Telecom, Tata Coffee, TTK Prestige, TVS Electronics
Exclusive: Sources Say
-SEBI’s Primary Market Advisory Comm Recommends Disclosing Of Pledged Promoters Stake Mandatory
PC Gupta Says There Seems To Be Nexus Between Satyam, Maytas Prop & Maytas Infra
Exclusive: Fin Min Sources Say:
-Satyam’s deposits in banks not worth over Rs 150 crore; distributed among PSU, private & foreign banks
-PSU Banks Have Zero Exposure To Satyam
-PSU Bks Have Exposure Of Rs 2000 Cr To All Satyam Arms, Associates, JVs
-PSU Banks Hold Securities Worth Rs 2,800 Cr Against Exposure
Satyam update: Sources Say:
-Board Asks SEBI For Time Till Mar 31 To Declare Q3 Results ((deadline was Jan 31))
-Co Needs Close To Rs 500 Cr To Pay January Salaries To Employees
-Needs At Least Rs 1,100 Cr To Tide Over Immediate Crisis
RoC Report On Satyam: From Sources
-Falsification Of Books, Fin Posn Overstated By Rs 5,000-6,000 Cr
-Insider Trading By Promoter, Directors & Senior Officials Of Co
L&T appoints Nomura to advise on Satyam deal – ET
Satyam used Maytas valuations improperly: E&Y – BS
Satyam land buy to hurt DRL, co had acquired a sub of Satyam in 2003 – Mint
TCS may sign multi-million dollar deal with Ducati for consulting and sponsorship: Sources
((may announce deal today))
Balaji promoters not to buy Star’s 26% stake in the Co – BS (Balaji was to buy stake at Rs 190/sh; CMP Rs 58)
Vedanta Terminates Rs 233 Cr Contract Township Proj With Maytas In Orissa
Tata Comm Acquires Additional 30% Stake In South Africa’s Neotel
HUL cuts prices of soaps & detergents: ToI
Suzlon Energy bags 10 MW wind turbine order from Sri Lanka
Apollo Sindhoori open offer from Aditya Birla Nuvo opens today ((was to open on Oct 23))
Rolta India board approves buyback of FCCBs
Electrosteel Castings board approves:
-Issue of up to 1.4 cr convertible warrants at Rs 23 to promoters on preferential basis
-Buyback of FCCBs worth $20.45 m
NSE bars fresh F&O positions in Akruti as 95% of market wide limit reached
Petronet LNG Q3
-Net Sales: Rs 2473 cr vs Rs 1581.1 cr
-Other Income: Rs 22.15 cr vs Rs 11.96 cr
-Operating Profit: Rs 185.5 cr vs Rs 232 cr
-OPM % at 7.5% vs 14.7%
-Net Profit: Rs 105 cr vs Rs 131 cr
TTML Q3
-Net Sales: Rs 514 cr vs Rs 439.7 cr
-Other Income: Rs 1.78 cr vs Rs 19.7 cr
-Operating Profit: Rs 145.5 cr vs Rs 108.6 cr
-OPM at 28.3% vs 24.7%
-Net Loss of Rs 45 cr vs Net Loss of Rs 27.4 cr
-Interest cost of Rs 83.6 cr vs Rs 41.9 cr
State Bank of Travancore Q3
-NII: Rs 386.6 cr vs Rs 238.34 cr
-Other Income: Rs 165.94 cr vs Rs 115.21 cr
-Net Profit: Rs 260.85 cr vs Rs 82.8 cr
Geometric (Consolidated) Q3
-Net Sales: Rs 163 cr vs Rs 152.6 cr
-Operating Profit: Rs 11.46 cr vs Rs 19.71 cr
-Net Profit: Rs 1.76 cr vs Rs 3.3 cr
KPIT Cummins (Consolidated) Q3
-Net Sales: Rs 184.5 cr vs Rs 194.7 cr
-Net Profit: Rs 16.86 cr vs Rs 16.7 cr
Mangalore Chemicals
-Net Sales: Rs 656.6 cr vs Rs 462.6 cr
-Net Profit: Rs 18.25 cr vs Rs 19.4 cr
Rolta Q2 ((in line; bottomline boosted by lower MTM))
-Revenues up 4.6% to Rs 361.9 cr (Estimate: Rs 361 cr)
-Notional exchange loss of Rs 22.65 cr vs Rs 61.3 cr on FCCB liability of $150 million
-Net profit at Rs 60.5 cr vs Rs 13.6 cr (Estimate: Rs 43.9 cr)
-EBIDTA up 6.5% to Rs 126 cr
-Margins at 34.8% vs 34.1%
Triveni Engg Q1
-Revenues at Rs 365.71 cr vs Rs 346 cr ( Estimate: Rs 367 cr
-Profits at Rs 23.98 cr vs Rs 25.6 cr ( Estimate: Rs 28.6 cr)
-Margins at 22.5% vs 19.5%
-Considered SAP at Rs 140
Punj Tractor Q3 Standalone
-Net Sales At Rs 356.33 Cr Vs Rs 302.90 Cr (YoY)
-Net Profit At Rs 35.03 Cr Vs Rs 25.40 Cr (YoY)
Mindtree Q3 Standalone – Good qtr on margins – rupee, cost management
-Revenues down 4.7% in $ terms; Volume decline of 1% due to holidays; realized rate decline by 3% due to cross currency issues
-IT services growth 7.5% QoQ; R&D services growth 10%
-IT services degrowth 5% QoQ; R&D services degrowth of 2% QoQ
-Hitech and BFSI verticals have shown growth; added 19 customers
Great Offshore Q3 Standalone
Net Sales At Rs 275.83 Cr Vs Rs 159.34 Cr (QoQ)
-Net Profit At Rs 57.72 Cr Vs Rs 16.88 Cr (QoQ)
Oriental Hotels Q3
-Net Sales: Rs 57.9 cr vs Rs 57.7 cr
-Net Profit: Rs 10.97 cr vs Rs 12.88 cr
-Net Sales: Rs 87.55 cr vs Rs
NIFTY FUTURE
ABOVE 2858 TARGET 2881-2913-2933
BELOW 2815 TARGET 2791-2770-2752
Yesterday market consolidate in very very narrow range, and cant decide the trend. Nifty Future is running in discount, this has to be covered into premium then, we can see positive movement in nifty. Below 2868 my view is bearish for market. Also dont short upto 2800 level.
MARKETCALLS - Intraday Stock Tips
Buy BHARTIAIRTEL above 648 SL 630 Target 664-669-677
Buy CAIRN above 158 SL 152 Target 162-167
Buy DRREDDY above 461 SL 450 Target 470-478
Buy EDUCOMP above 2187 SL 2085 Target 2282-2360
Sell HEROHONDA below 826 SL 837 Target 812-801
Sell INFOSYS below 1239 SL 1269 Target 1217-1194
NIFTY FUTURE (2833)
Support : 2810 / 2775 / 2755
Resistance : 2845 / 2860 / 2885
NIFTY (2846)
Support : 2820 / 2795 / 2775 / 2730 / 2680
Resistance : 2870 / 2895 / 2925 / 2940 / 3000
SENSEX (9329) : Buying Expecting Once SENSEX Starts Trading Above 9400.Sensex now near its crucial and psychological support of 9000
Support : 9265 / 9200
Resistance : 9405 / 9475
NIFTY Retraced To 38% Of Fall From 3140-2700,Then Corrected Near End As Hourly Charts Were Bit Oversold,May Correct Till 2800-2775-2755 Then Bounce To 2910 Is Possible
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 1.45% with 25% decreasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions.
We expect NIFTY FUT to face resistance on every rise.
Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 2840,Sl Below 2820,Tgt 2870-2890.
Sustain Below 2820,Sell with Sl Above 2840,Tgt 2820-2800ACC
Buy Above 505,Tgt 510/515/20,Sl 500
Sell Below 495,Tgt 490/485/80,Sl 500
TATAPOWER (760) Sell with Sloss Above 770,Tgt 745/740++
Sell IVRCLINFRA Below 110/105
Sell GESHIPPING Below 180/175
Buy PUNJLOYD Above 115,Sl 110,Tgt 120/125/130+
Buy BHARTI Above 640,Sl 635,Tgt 650/55/65
Buy GAIL Above 213,Sl 210,Tgt 217/20/25
Buy RELCAPITAL Above 435,Sl 425,Tgt 450/460
Buy BATAINDIA Above 98,Sl 95,Tgt 100/03/06++
I want to break free from the shackles of the narrow trading range we are seeing – but frankly the way the things are looking – I really do not see an alternative. The markets are now trading in an extremely narrow range that I am sure is not sustainable for long periods of time. There are now various news and facts that are likely to pull the markets in different directions. Obama factor has somehow become a big one as people are expecting a miracle solution from him. It was so big that during the day – idiot box was shouting that every one is waiting for some dramatic announcement from Obama. I am at a loss what that can be – but since everyone is saying so – I too am waiting for some mumbo jumbo that can take us (US) out from these difficult times. Whatever his magic therapy will be will be ripped and studied in detail. If the mumbo jumbo has anything in it that is not practical – the markets will react wildly and negatively. On the other hand if the announcement is positive then the markets will take measured steps up and see how they will fare. This is so because any measure that is taken will take some time before it takes the train of the US economy chugging along. Meanwhile the latest is that Britain has announced the second rescue plan to thaw the frozen credit assets. The markets do not seem to have reacted overly positive to this news – but are in green all the same. The second thing that is likely to pull the markets are the results that will be announced everyday now… that includes the results from the heavy weights like Reliance… These are the results that can swing the markets in any direction taking a few other markets along with them. Now again as far as the results are concerned there are two parts in them that have to be looked forward too – First… the earnings
To say that the markets are remaining range bound is an understatement actually. They are just not moving at all. But the narrowing range will end this period of indecisiveness with a force. Well I too am waiting along with so many others. Some how I am getting convinced that the breakout might be on the positive side but wait and watch is all that we can really do in this case.
I really do not have anything new to say in the charts for today. the candle was small but white – at the same time sensex was red so take this will a bucket of salt. We have moved away from the bottom of the Bollinger band but nothing to write home about. Volumes were not good really. In ADX - DI+ has moved above the DI – so that is about it. Now we should wait for the trend to be given a support by the DX. MACD has the same negative divergence that it had yesterday. RSI is moving up, Slow Stochastic is too moving up. TRIX is still looking down. So that is all to the indicators as of now.
The daily chart is not update on the iCharts so will post it later in the meanwhile look at the pivot data for tomorrow…
R3 2917 against 2946 yesterday
R2 2893
R1 2869
Pivot 2844 against 2795 yesterday
S1 2820
S2 2795
S3 2771 against 2549 yesterday
Projected High Range 2857 to 2881
Projected Low Range 2854 to 2830
Fib Projected High 2881
Fib Projected Low 2805
I will surely update the daily trend that we had today whenever I get the iCharts data…
Okay here we go with the days performance…
the markets opened above the pivot – infact a lot above but could not cross above the R1 and the chart is like this…
Stop losses are on closing basis.
Calls are on short term basis. (10 -15 days).
Options should be closed, once it yields 50% profit.
All are spot prices.
Reliance (1217.45)
Sell on every rise up to 1265 stop loss 1326 or buy 1260 PUT around 1260 levels with same stops, for a target of 1142.
Support 1190 - 1142 - 1128 Resistance 1266 -1321 - 1360
DLF (195.55)
Sell DLF with stop loss of 210 for a target 173 – 160.
Support 181 -173 - 160. Resistance 202 -210 - 218.
RCOM (182.70)
Sell on every rise up to 204 with stop loss 216 for a target 163 or buy 200 PUT around 190 – 200 levels with same stop loss.
Support 176-170-163 Resistance 193-204-216
ICICI Bank (423.75)
Sell around 450 levels with stop loss 470 levels or Buy 450 Put around 440-450 levels with same stops for a target of 384.
Support 414 – 399 – 384 Resistance 428 – 452 – 470.
In India, Reliance Industries is expected to announce fall in quarterly net profit for the first time in 3 years and except Banking, Companies from other sectors are announcing disappointing results.
Stock market news:
1. RNRL is ready to let Reliance Industries start production of gas as long as it is sold only to NTPC and government companies. But RNRL said in the Bombay High Court that asking NTPC to pay $4.20 instead of contracted price of $2.34 per unit of gas to RIL would tantamount to a mega scam. RNRL seems to have changed the plan of attack.
2. Government is now talking about the Satyam’s shell firms. This is a common practice by big Corporates in India to evade taxes and keep black money in these privately listed Companies. Can this Government have the guts to investigate on Mauritius based Indian shell firms?
3. Zenotech-Daiichi open offer row may finally land at SEBI. Daiichi made an open offer price of Rs 113.62 per share but Zenotech is wanting Rs 160 per share.
4. Tata Motors: Jaguar Land Rover has halted all production at the factory which makes its new XF luxury sports car. Why did Tata buy this Company?
5. NMDC got new mines and ores.
Q3 Results of the Indian Companies:
1. Excellent results: State Bank of Mysore and State Bank of Travancore – Only banking stocks.
2. Good results: Transformers and Rectifiers, Punjab Tractors, Sasken Communications (director resigned), Electrosteel Castings and Great Offshore (difficult to maintain margins).
3. Poor results: Petronet LNG, ITC, Mindtree, Rolta India, Ultratech Cement, Suven Life, KPIT Cummins and Geometric software.
4. Worst results: Tata Teleservices, Gujarat NRE Coke, Apollo Tyres, MRO-TEK, Panyam Cements, Oriental hotels and Religare Enterprises,
Today results: Dr Reddys Labs, Reliance Capital, KS Oils, AIA Engineering, Alstom Projects, United Breweries, Polaris, Hero Honda, Stone India, Compact Disc India, Tata Coffee, HT Media, Kirloskar Pneumatic, Fortis healthcare, Nagarjuna Fertilisers and NIIT.
Recession news:
1. UK big bailout package: Britain PM announced $147 billion bailout package to rescue banks from collapse. Banking system of England escaped from collapse due to this bailout package. But many problems are still there. England economy is expected to shrink by 2.8% in 2009.
2. Banking: Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) will announce Rs 2,00,000 crore annual loss on February 26. This is the biggest loss in British corporate history. 1 lakh crore losses in a bank in one year! Unbelievable! RBS shares fell by 70% in a single session. Denmark also bailed out banks with 100 billion kroner package.
RBS share in April, 2008: $152
RBS share in January, 2009: $10.
3. UK: Britain will ban giving jobs to foreign professionals. Companies that break the new rules could have their licence to employ non-European Union migrants revoked. Government will even ban advertising jobs overseas which will have serious implications on Indian Professionals. 34 lakh people will be without jobs in the next 2 years.
4. EU: The eurozone economy will shrink 1.9% in 2009 and grow by only 0.4% in 2010 - The European Commission. Unemployment in the 16 countries using the euro is expected to exceed 10% in 2010, up from 7.5% in 2008. (Source: BBC)
5. EU: The eurozone economy will shrink 2.6% in 2009 - Bank of America analyst. Read this BBC article to know more about UK economy. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7836489.stm
6. USA: More Americans are now joining in military due to lack of jobs in other sectors.
7. China: Country GDP grew by 13% in 2007 and is expected to grow at 6% in 2009. Lowest growth since 1990.
8. Australia: Economic conditions will worsen this year - Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
Statistics of the day:
1. Total bad loans across the world are $1,500 billion (estimates). I hope that estimates will not increase in future.
2. India ranked at 85 out of 180 countries in the Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index.
3. 4-5 crores of Chinese workers will lose jobs in 2009. China will be the worst affected country despite 6% economic growth in 2009 (estimates).
Satyam –Maytas news:
1. Preliminary investigation found nexus between Satyam Computers and Maytas. Government ordered SFIO to investigate the books of Maytas Infra and Maytas Properties. Prime Minister is now showing similar resolve as he did in the case of nuclear deal.
2. Both Satyam Computers and Maytas Infra are now without CEOs.
3. TCS is expected to bag most of the contracts of Satyam Computers as they share many common clients.
4. Satyam promoters and officials indulged in insider trading and promoters even resorted to the forgery of the bank documents. They are in complete mess.
Companies with suspicious cash flows:
GTL Infra, Maharashtra Seamless, Aftek, Rajesh Exports and HTMT Global.
(Courtesy: Outlook profit)
Do you know?
Dhirubhai Ambani is the other name for success. But He failed in his media adventure. He launched a daily newspaper called “The Business and Political Observer” but shutdown it later. Media, Cinema and Airlines are the most hyped sectors across the world where success rates are very low.
Good articles:
1. Wonderful letter by a father to his daughter. Must read.
2. When will US economy recover?
3. What Barack Obama will do to rescue American economy?
4. Excellent article on What economists are thinking about the current crisis?.
Stock market tips:
1. Infosys Vs Silver Line: Both are technology companies and sunrise stocks in the late 90’s. Management is crucial. Insosys investors are now millionaires while Silverline investors are now bankrupted. Never invest in speculative stocks. Returns are tempting but losses are unimaginable.
2. Bharti Airtel Vs Tata Tele: Two friends spotted the growth opportunity in mobile and teelcom sector in 2003. One was immediately invested in Bharti Airtel while the other one invested in Tata Tele after some time. Airtel investor is now a crorepati while Tate Tele investor lost most of his investment. Spotting the emerging sector is important but also investment in right Company is also crucial for good returns.
3. Suzlon Vs Suzlon: There are issues about the credibility of management but still stock gave exceptional returns in bull markets but all those profits are wiped out in the bear market. In Bull markets, positive points will dominate but in bear markets, negative points will outshine.
Note: I gave above examples just to give some idea about stock markets for new investors.
Economic Times Business Channel:
New Business Channel, "ET Now", is set to launch in March, 2009 and you will see the channel advertisements ftom February onwards. Channel motto - speed and accuracy in breaking stories, cracking trends and ideas ahead of competition. Prime Minister unveiled the logo of the new business channel at the ET awards function in Mumbai.
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The indecision in the indices continues to remain with lacklustre moves. The upside remains capped around the 9500-9800 mark and 8900-9200 on downside for extreme short term. So till we dont see a clear move out of the triangle or a sustaining move beyond 9650-9800 it would be better to watch then try to go for the small moves.
Stocks to watchout for :
LnT ,ONGC , Reliance did hold on to the crucial bottoms and have given small pullbacks as expected. Need to watch how much strength is still left. Bajaj Auto crosses 445 and jumps to 495 giving the 10 % move book profits if taken the trade.
Bharat Electronics
The stock has been a range of 750-800 for last few sessions. Sustaining above 800 could give a tgt of 850-880 in short term.
Punj Lloyd
Small range move in last few days 105 low and 117 odd high. Can play for a bounce back above 118 for a tgt of 130 + .
NIFTY RANG CMP 2846....BUY 2854 ...
TARGET 2888/2910/2934...&SELL BELOW 2780..
TARGET..2754/ 2722/2702....
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