The Indian market opened on lower note and remained weak throughout the trading session. For coming session if nifty trade above 2777 it can test 2830 zone on the lower side 2724 -2690 will act support zone ..png)
However, the deep discount in Nifty future and the running corrections suggest a major fall ahead. Next level to watch for 2714 & 2650 below which testing of previous lows.
Important notes1) Trading system Is useful for positional traders and short term traders.
2) It is not useful for day traders.
3) If buy call is generated then keep stoploss of 3d LMA.(reduction of 50 % is advisable if closes below 3d SMA).
4) If short call is generated then keep stoploss of 3d HMA.(reduction of 50 % is advisable if closes above 3d SMA).
5) Investors should buy nifty at the money puts whenever short call is generated in nifty to protect there portfolio.
6) Keep an eye on weekly close, as in a generated long call gives better returns if we are trading above weekly close, reverse is true for short call
NSE INDEX (C-2773.10)
Resistance : 2800 / 2825 / 2865 / 2915 / 2945
Support : 2750 / 2725 / 2675 / 2620-05
BSE SENSEX (C-9110.05)
Resistance : 9160 / 9300 / 9465 / 9665 / 9750
Support : 8980-50 / 8850
NIFTY FUTURE (C-2750.30)
Resistance : 2780 / 2825 / 2900
Support : 2700 / 2650
BANK FUTURE (C-4677.15)
Resistance : 4715 / 4850 / 5010
Support : 4550 / 4420
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 4.67% with 5% increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions.
Negative opening and short covering at lower levels possible.
On Tuesday ,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 2785,Sl Above 2815,Tgt 2755-2740-2700-2675-2645,
Sustain Above 2815,Buy with Sl below 2785,Tgt 2845-2920.
OR
Sell NIFTY Below 2750,Sl 2785,Tgt 2680-2635-2600-2580
Sell ICICI BANK Below 435
Sell RCOM Below 172
Sell TATA POWER (727),Sl Above 750,Tgt 710-695+
Sell HDFC BANK Below 1000,Tgt 990-970-935,Sl 1015
Sell ITC Below 165,Tgt 160-155-145,Sl 170
Sell M&M Below 305,Tgt 300-290-270,Sl 320
Sell PNB Below 470,Tgt 465-455-430, Sl 480
DLF : Sell Below 201,Sloss at 206,Tgt 195/190/185
EDUCOMP : Sell Below 1950,Sl 1990,Tgt 1870/1850++
Buy HLL Above 265,Tgt 270-275-280,Sl 260
Buy BHARTI Above 630,Tgt 640-655-660,Sl 615
Buy RNRL,Tgt 65-75,Sl 45 (Positional)
Buy HINDLIVER Above 265-67
Buy ADLABS Above 185,Tgt 190/195+,Sl 180
| Scrip | Trigger | Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| GAIL | BUY ABOVE | 208.45 | 206.55 | 210.75 | 214.00 |
|
| SELL BELOW | 203.90 | 205.75 | 201.65 | 198.55 |
| ZEEL | BUY ABOVE | 126.15 | 125.00 | 127.55 | 129.50 |
|
| SELL BELOW | 123.40 | 124.50 | 122.05 | 120.15 |
JANUARY FUTURES
Buy SUNPHARMA@ 1130,Sl 1115,Tgt 1135/40/50/65/75/85/95/1210 (Lot Size 225)
RELCAPITAL (437.30)
Short Below 435,Tgt 420/405/395/380/ levels. On Upperside Resistance exists at 445/455/470 levels.
INFY (1157):
Sell @ 1175/80,Sl 1205,Tgt 1145/1135/1120
(Or Sell @ 1145/50,Sl 1165,Tgt 1140/30/20/05/1095/ 75/65
ONGC (652.95) : Sell @ 665/70,Sl 685,Tgt 645/635
SBI (1157) : Sell @ 1170,Sl 1200,Tgt 1140 (Below it then 1105 / Position Short hold with Sl 1215)
Sell INFOSYSTCH TGT: 1140, 1125 SL: 1154
Sell RELCAPITAL TGT: 424,415 SL: 434
Sell DLF TGT: 196,191 SL: 203
Sell WIPRO TGT: 219,215 SL: 226
Sell Nifty futures TGT: 2710, 2690 SL: 2750
Buy Nifty futures TGT: 2780, 2800 SL: 2745
Sell Nifty futures TGT: 2775, 2740 SL: 2815
The times to improve are surely coming around the corner. The light at the end of the tunnel can be seen if you look carefully enough. Hey by no way I mean that the uptrend is about to start – there are no indicators pointing towards that other than my heart. The day was not nice today, and incidentally we were also the worst performers at the market. Whereas Nikkei closed just 0.45% down, Hang Seng 2.83% in red and straits times 1.65% in red, we ended up 3.15% down on BSE and 3.48% down on nifty. And mind you, these are not the worst levels for the day. The Satyam story overshadowed everything else that came or is to come. And this announcing that global firms are scared by the revelations of almost USD1 billion accounting fraud of a company that was also listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The breadth of the market was negative today. All the sectoral indices also closed in red with BSE metal index dropping by 5%. Out of the 2520 scripts traded on BSE, over 1610 had declined. Tata steel, reliance infrastructure, lost almost 7% each. Reliance, Ranbaxy, DLF, BHEL, SBI and ICICI bank -- all repeated the same story with reliance losing over 4%. The nifty January futures have moved to a discount of 23 points. In this onslaught, the good news gets hidden in the blanket of negativity that floats around. The IIP Data that came out was a welcome relief. The drop in inflation also got swallowed by the bad news last week. The oil has again started steadily declining. I think it is time that we leave the Satyam story behind and move on with our lives.
On the
On the candles the story could not have been any worse. Today is the third black candle that we have had. The candles can taken to be three black crows and it indicates we have further downside from this point onwards. That is substantiated by the third candle that is violating the lower Bollinger band. The Bollinger bands have widened and may give this trend the strength it needs. The five EMA is definitely and comfortably below the 20 EMA. The ADX however, is not lending support to this downtrend and that is good, though, as such the ADX is giving a bearish outlook. The MACD is bearish with the negative divergences increasing. RSI is not good and looking bearish. Slow Stochastic is bearish the only relief being that the red line has gone to the oversold territory. However before the recovery comes the blue line too shall join in the red line in the oversold territory. The TRIX has started looking down and bearish. Provisionally, the FII's sold 563.57 crore and the DII bought 217.83 crore worth in our markets.
See the markets behaviour today? Started out definitely below the pivot lineand went on to drop piercing through support 1, the support thereafter proved resistance for the markets to recover.The markets played the rest of the day between the support 1 and support 2. The increasing volatility will lead to play out in such large ranges.
Pivot data for tomorrow is as under: -
R3 2990 against 3048 on Friday
R2 2917
R1 2845
Pivot 2796 against 2870 on Friday
S1 2724
S2 2675
S3 2603 against 2693 on Friday
Projected High Range 2821 to 2881 
Projected Low Range 2856 to 2796
Fib Projected High 2901
Fib Projected Low 2715.
WoW that is a lot of data for everyone to chew. The technical s indicate continuation of the fall – but I say that we may recover.
Nifty broke 2810 spot, and went on to hit our 1st tgt.
now trailing SL is 2790 on closing basis, so book shorts only if we close above 2790.
also keep any eye on DOw (US markets), any closing below 8500 levels will be very weak, and it may fall for another 2 sessions.
for intraday, major resistence exists only around 2790 levels, also some weakness will be seen below 2755.
nifty may go on to hit 2686 (IMP SUPPORT) and give a small bounce from there.
One thing that surprised me today is that even after breaking 2810 spot, nifty didnt have a free fall, and was reluctant to fall, so make sure u keep a trailing SL at 2790 levels for shorts.
Sensex has made a low below 9162 and closed around 9110 which is not a good indication for short term. Also the volumes were very high on the Satyam initiated fall day.
On the near term it seems a breakdown below the triangle line but as before we would be waiting for a confirmatory signal in the next few sessions then to jump the gun rightaway but yes the bias has turned towards negative in the short term.
Another thing to note is in the last 3 days Sensex has lost almost 1000-1300 points which is a big move in short term so there is a decent possibility of a small dead bounce before a clear cut direction emerges. The triangle size is of 2k points odd so the ideal targets on confirmation could be 8300/7700/7200 with a stop placed on the upper triangle line.
FOR DETAILED VIEW CHECK ThE VIDEOS POSTED.
The strategy should be to avoid longs and continue to hold the cash because if the triangle pattern is broken then the correction could give gr8 opportunities to invest finally and the time period of Feb-March would soon be over ( the uncertain and time wise correction period lasts till March ) .
Stocks to watchout for :
BHEL
Its possibly breaking down the channel and some close below 1300-1320 could lead to a target of 1150. Only a move beyond 1450 + would negate the bearish possibility
Hindustan Unilever
This is the only stock which is holding up in current markets but would face resistance around 270 sustaining which it could go well up to 295 where one could look to short.
Larsen n Toubro
Larsen has had made 3 lows in the range of 660-680 in last 3 months. Oct 680 , dec 670 , Jan 660. So technically sustaining below 650 would be a very weak signal. Any upmove would face resistance at 750-770.
Reliance Inds
The stock continues the downward bias below 1150 and the last support is around 1020 zone below which it could be disastrous for the stock. Need to watch that level closely. Technically it has broken the recent trendline and may try to test it around 1160-1180.
ONGC
Recent imp lows 620 ( close on Oct ) , 615 in nov , 635 and 627 in Dec. So technically the range of 615-630 remains a good support and with cmp at 652 could try to hold the zone and might give a bounce to 700 .
RCAP and RCOM have give breakdowns and short term charts and best would be to avoid them.
Finally the 28 breaks down and we have a clear direction now towards 27-26-25. The 20 day ATR (not shown above) is now at 115 or 4.14 % of the closing price 2773. That means volatility is on the rise and we are now sure to see some big moves in this week. Fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride!NIFTY FUTURE
ABOVE 2804 TARGET 2827-2848-2889
BELOW 2750 TARGET 2704-2645-2610
Yesterday Nifty had break 2800 very easily, Now Nifty will touch 2645 and 2566 in coming days. High Risk traders may buy put of 2600-2500. Nifty will be heavily volatile, use SL in every trade.
Sell HINDUNILVR below 261 SL 272 Target 257-254
Sell NALCO below 176 SL 188 Target 170-161
Sell CAIRN below 163 SL 169 Target 160-155
Sell TATAPOWER below 721 SL 748 Target 698-689
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