If the mkt doesn't cross the nifty last week high mkt can go down again.
if market cross last week low we can expect bearish again .
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Buy RNRL above 62 SL 60 Target 66-68-71
Buy ABB above 497 SL 482 Target 506-517
Buy CIPLA above 195 SL 190 Target 201-204
Buy EDUCOMP above 2572 SL 2534 Target 2610-2639-2669
Buy INDIAINFO above 71 SL 66 Target 75-78-81
Buy KOTAKBANK above 400 SL 390 Target 415-423
NIFTY FUTURE
ABOVE 3054 TARGET 3098-3121-3181
BELOW 3045 TARGET 3032-3003-2978
Okay – I have had a good amount of holidays – a wonderful New-Year’s eve and I think it is time that I come back to the real world of bulls and bears before I start acquiring a house in fairyland. The past few days have been wonderful.
The second stimulus package has come and it has been in some ways better than that was expected by the markets really and it is for this reason I see a wonderful opening on Monday. This is as far as the fundamental story is concerned. On the technical side the markets are in overbought zone so the sell off that would come should be severe. I do not have the patience to see or trade the DOW but take a look at Jaggu’s blog. He says the DOW is in for a big time trouble. – dangerous waters –Uh! ? It becomes a fighting times when we have such a situation with the battleground ready for a intense fight. The story of bulls and bears and the breakouts form the tightly traded range we saw for past so many weeks ~ Well let me take the things one at a time and see where we are heading to really. Okay starting with the second set of stimulus that has been announced. To start with as far as the economy goes it is difficult to match the doings of Congress Govt here. See whatever they do within the context of Political pressures – Communists then and elections now. We cannot expect any action in isolations for the economy alone – afterall we have the compulsions of the democracy. Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia expects these actions to propel the economy forward at 7 percent – that would be a WOW! Firstly the benchmark repo rate has been cut from 6.5 to 5.5% – a full 100 basis point cut. Reverse repurchase rate has been cut from 5 to 4 percent – this is likely to boost the banks to lend more to the consumers. The focus of the second stimulus package is clearly the infrastrucuture sector but the measures also included easier financing for commercial vehicles, allowing state governments to borrow more for spending and simplified lending norms for exporters. The government allowed infrastructure firm IIFCL to raise Rs 30,000 crore as tax free bonds and removed the interest rate ceiling on overseas borrowings. It announced accelerated depreciation at 50% for commercial vehicles bought between now and March 31. FIIs have been allowed to invest up to $15 billion in corporate bonds as against $6 billion so far. The government has also restored duty drawbacks to exporters and easier lending through the EXIM Bank. The government was candid enough to admit this was the last of measures as it had little fiscal headroom. So what all should affect the markets tomorrow as far as the fundamentals are concerned? – Well Firstly, The stimulus packet is good, positive for the market. But this is the last of the packet – so this is it for the time being – if the markets do not take it in good stead then – well that is that then. Finally the expectations are now finished with the announcement of the final package – so no more anxiety and unknown factor to drive the markets up anymore – will affect it negatively.
The Global cues are good. Asia was all green on 2nd Jan with Nikkei up 1.28%, Hang Seng up 4.55% and Strait Times up 2.17%. Europe too was good with FTSE up 2.88%, DAX up 3.39% and CAC up 4.09%. US too ended on the green note with the DOW closing 2.94% up, Nasdaq up 3.5% and S&P up 3.16%. So I do expect a good opening of Asia tomorrow and also ours.
Let us go on to the technicals now - well the markets touched the middle of the Bollinger bands and bounced back – I had infact thought that they will go and touch the bottom of the bands – glad to be wrong. The bands themselves are fairly narrow so – till the breakout happens just wait and watch. 20 EMA line is inching and itching to cross the 50 EMA line – the real bullish season will start after this crossover. The volumes came back to the averages. The volume on the friday trading was 139% of previous averages. The candle in isolation is a doji and if it is what it says then short term correction is almost imminent. Second way to look at the candle is that it is a shooting star and that too is not a good indication. RSI remains good and positive. Slow Stochastics show the makets in the overbought territory so tells us to be cautious – TRIX is at its peak – depends how long it remains there and whether the 3200 to 3500 band is reached. ADX is just above the 20 marker saying that the overall uptrend that was there has run into trouble and this trend is weak. Though the +DI says it is positive about the markets. MACD divergence is still positive – but just so. So here we are still at crossroads wherein the markets can open positive and at the most remain in green territory for only near future.
Pivot data… Notice the pivot at the same place as before.
R3 3137
R2 3107
R1 3077
Pivot 3049
S1 3019
S2 2991
S3 2961
Projected High Range 3063 to 3092
Projected Low Range 3067 to 3038
Fib Projected High 3095
Fib Projected Low 3006
If you look at the chart attached, nifty closed below the resistence trendline, however with the good news from the Govt. over the weekend, we will open gap up.
Now nifty may open around 3120, but if comes down and trades below 3080, may turn weak for intraday.
a closing below 3080 will be bad for the bullish trend.
if closes above 3080, may see 3200 as the next tgt...so for intraday, keep a watch on 3080 if sustains, play long, else short with day's high as SL
(60 min intraday chart attached, All Future Levels)
AH! The year comes to the end, and time starts to make new trading resolutions. Resolutions which we might eventually break! Anyway time to start again with a clean slate, time to look forward and learn from the mistakes from the past. Well I for starters have RESOLVED to TRADE LESS TRADE SMART (may the Market give me strength to keep my sanity). Wishful thinking? Yups.
And now let’s see how Miss Nifty began the New Year, no nasty surprises on the first two days, is it cautious optimism? Maybe! We have had a stimulus package(Viagra?) announced by our government plus the all important Uncle DOW also gave a nice start to the year, and cousin Nikkei aint doing bad either! This is bound to bring in some exuberance on Monday. Then we have quarterly results coming in from next week which will influence to some extent. Yes they will be bad, the world knows, no secrets there. But what’s important is How BAD?
The first chart below is the monthly chart, just to give you the feel of the broader picture. There has been Price contraction happening for the last two months as can be envisaged by the two consecutive IB’s (Inside Bars). For all practical purposes we need to see how the break of 3110 pans out and how 2950/2885 holds out!
The weekly chart has shown once again a reversal bar, the MACD histogram is showing strength, the RSI is broken above its falling trend line. A break above 3110 can lead to fishing of short stops and resulting momentum can lead Price to 3150/60. Talking about 3250, I would wait first to see how this week unfolds itself.
The daily chart has 20 and 50 periods simple MA’s crossing at approximately 2885/90 so this becomes a support of sorts. If you use the EMA’s then you will notice that the latest NR bar (this also qualifies as NR4) we made on Friday sits right at the 50 EMA from where it had earlier reacted downwards. We have the indicators moving to the OB areas (especially the hourly), warranting some caution. Any intra day dip to 3010 is a welcome buy if it shows support there. The daily structure has been of lower highs and higher lows (contraction? you bet it is). Nifty needs to break 3250 convincingly, and trade above it, to create a higher high. This move will then confirm the December price action as the Higher Low and would act as sorts of intermediate trend reversal.
NSE Index (C-3046.75) : 2975-3150 is Weekly Range for NIFTY
Resistance : 3050 / 3080 / 3100-10 / 3140-60 / 3185
Support : 3020 / 2990 / 2945 / 2900
BSE Sensex (C-9958.22) : Buying Expecting Once SENSEX Starts Trading Above 10070
Resistance : 9965 / 10065 / 10170
Support : 9855 / 9755
Nifty Future (C-3053.60)
Resistance : 3060 / 3090 / 3125
Support : 3020 / 2985
Bank Future (C-5199.85)
Resistance : 5275 / 5350
Support : 5190 / 5115 / 5030
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 1.08% with 51% increasing volumes indicating short covering.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with volatility.
Technicals R Improving , But V C some Weakness Below 3035.
Use Weakness to Buy Till 2950 Holds
i.e Sl for Longs : 2950
Nifty had Strong Res @ 3126
On the Monday ,Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 3050,Sl Below 3035,Tgt 3070-3095-3110/25,
Sustain Below 3040,Sell with Sl Above 3055,Tgt 3025/15-2990-2975-2950-2900.
Or
Positionally
NIFTY BUY ABOVE 3120,Sl 3090,Tgt 3145/3175/3195/3240
NIFTY SELL BLOW 2965,Sl 2995,Tgt 2940/2915/2880/2830
STOCKS To WATCH For TOMORROW ,in BUY ZONE :
INDIA INFO, R.POWER, RPL, BHEL, UNITECH, GMR INFRA, DLF, REL INFRA, BANK OF RAJASTHAN, BHARTIARTL, BOBBAYDYIENG, ACC, GGVKPOWER, RIL
SL 1.5% TO 2% TGT 5 TO 15%UP
POSITIONALLY
VALUE BUY-LAKSHMI MACHINE-ZERO DEBT CO,ORDER BOOK 5000cr ++,book value 614 trading at 635.our target 2089.upisde of 229%.
BUY DELIVERY OF SOUTH INDIAN BANK KEEP STOP LOSS OF 60 ON CLOSING BASIS AND TARGET ARE 64-68.
Buy CIPLA Above 195
Buy RANBAXY Above 255,Tgt 260-265/270,Sl 250
CROMPTON GREAVES : Buy Above 150,Sl 145,Tgt 155/158/60
GESHIPPING : Buy Above 230,Sl 225,Tgt 239-40
Buy BOB Above 290,Tgt 295-304-325,Sl 280
Buy BHEL Above 1420,Tgt 1440-1465-1520,Sl 1395
Buy M&M Above 290,Tgt 295-305-325,Sl 280
Buy TECH MAHINFRA Above 275,Tgt 85-90-95,Sl 70
Buy ABIRLANUVO Above 570,Tgt 580-90-600,Sl 560
Sell BOMDYEING Below 205,Tgt 200-195-185,Sl 210
Sell BPCL Below @ 365,Tgt 360-355-345,Sl 370
Sell L&T Below 820,Tgt 815-800-775,Sl 835
TATA POWER (771) Sell with Sloss Above 785,Tgt 760-755.
IBN18
Buy Above 107,Sl 106,Tgt 108/110
Sell Below 105,Sl 106,Tgt 103/101
ZEEL
Buy Above 139,Sl 138,Tgt 141/144
Sell Below 137,Sl 138,Tgt 135/133
RAJESH EXPORTS
Buy Above 26.8,Sl 26.4,Tgt 27/29
Sell Below 26,Sl 26.6,Tgt 25/24
KARUTURI GLOBAL
Buy Above 19,Sl 18.3,Tgt 20
Sell Below 18,Sl 18.5,Tgt 17
PUNJ LLOYD
Buy Above 160,Sl 158,Tgt 162/167/170
Sell Below 157,Sl 159,Tgt 154/151
HDIL
Buy Above 146,Sl 144,Tgt 148/153/157
Sell Below 142.5,Sl 145,Tgt 140/137
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
Buy Above 403,Sl 398,Tgt 415/433
Sell Below 395,Sl 400,Tgt 384/367
DLF
Buy Above 302,Sl 300,Tgt 308/317
Sell Below 298,Sl 301,Tgt 293
TATASTEEL
Buy Above 232,Sl 230,Tgt 234/239
Sell Below 228,Sl 231,Tgt 226 220
UNITECH
Buy Above 46.5,Sl 46.2,Tgt 48/49/51
Sell Below 46,Sl 46.4,Tgt 45/43
FUTURES (Positionally) : ( Avoid Buy in Last Hours )
INDIA INFOLINE(C-67.9): Daily Chart Looking Strong:
Buy Around 64 ,Tgt 73+++,Support 59/50
NAGAR CONSTRUCTION(C-84.6): Daily Chart Looking Strong:
Buy Around 82,Tgt 90+++,Support 77/69
RELIANCE COM(C-250.95): Weekly Chart Looking Strong:
Buy Around 235,Tgt 270+++,Support 215/180
CHAMBAL :JAN FUTURE 41.80
Buy Around 40.5-41.5,Sl 39,Tgt 43.80/45/47.5++ levels.
Buy GITANJALI @ 75,Sl 74,Tgt 75/76/77/78/79/81 (Lot Size 500)
REL (630.5) : Buy @ 615,Sl 595,Tgt 630/640 Or If Open High Sell @ 650/55,Sl 665,Tgt 635/625/620
RIL (1284) : Buy @ 1270,Sl 1245,Tgt 1300/10 (If Open Above Tgt, Avoid Buy in Last Hrs) If Open High then Sell @ 1320/25,Sl 1330\35,Tgt 1300/1290/1280
Buy 1280Pa For INTRADAY
SBI : Buy @ 1220,Sl 1300,Tgt 1335/45 Or Open High then Sell @1350-55,Sl 1380,Tgt 1325/20/1310
Sell ZEE @ 139,Sl 141 Tgt 137/137/135/134/133/131/130/128 (Lot Size 700)
Gold Technical 1st P.P Resis at 889, 4week high of 892, 2nd P.P Resis at 900, 38.2% retracement 52 week high of 908 and 14day RSI at 70% 912
>>>Crude Oil Outlook>>> Crude Oil Ready 2 Crack Soon; We'r Expecting Big FallHere Are Some Cherry Picks For 2009
SBI , IVRCL , BHEL , ITC , SUN PHARMA , PNB , NTPC,
RIL , BHARTI AIRTEL , PTC , LIC HOUSING , BEL , IDFC,
SYNDICATE BANK , MARUTI , HUL , L&T , UNITECH,
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Volatile
TOTAL OI of NIFTY FUT flat, NIFTY FUT up 6.49% last week. OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 66.67% prices up 77.36%, 3100 CE is 103.92% prices up 84.74% showing
call buying. OI of NIFTY 2900 PE is up 105.85% prices down 55.62%, 3000 PE is up 91.92% prices down 51.71% showing put writing last week.
We expect NIFTY SPOT will move up to 3160-70 levels,
Above 3180 levels. Next target will be 3210-20, 3260-75 levels. Profit booking expected here. On downside, NIFTY SPOT Support at 2945-80 levels. NIFTY FUT to trade positive with some volatility at higher levels next week. 2975-3150 is WEEKLY RANGE for NIFTY
SECTOR WATCH
MIDCAP STOCK FUTS
Trend : Bullish
OI of TORNTPOWER FUT up 413.33%, INDIANB FUT up 227.71%, ICSA FUT up 217.90%, GVKPIL FUT up 208.17%, INDIAINFO FUT up 132.78%, JINDALSAW FUT up 100.92%, WALCHANNAG FUT up 274.60% with rising prices last week. These counters showing long positions build up.
We expect positive move to continue next week.
OMCs
Trend : Bearish
OI of BPCL FUT up 22.93%, HINDPETRO FUT up 9.84% with falling prices showing short positions build up. Only IOC FUT OI down 18.85% showing unwinding of long positions.
We expect negative move in coming week.
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
1) NIFTY FUT Total OI flat, NIFTY FUT up 6.49%, last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 44 Stock FUTS closed positive,
2 Stock FUTS closed negative and 4 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
3) OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 66.67% prices up 77.36%, 3100 CE is up 103.92% prices up 84.74% last week showing call buying.
4) OI of NIFTY 2900 PE is up 105.85% prices down 55.62%, 3000 PE is up 91.92% prices down 51.71% last week showing put writing.
5) Total OI of JAN series PUTs is up by 69.75 LK to 1.87 CR. JAN series CALLs is up by 60.09 LK to 1.46 CR last week.
Conclusion :
I expect NIFTY SPOT will move to 3160-70 levels. Above 3180 levels, up move will go up to 3210-20, 3260-75 levels, I expected profit booking here.
On profit booking NIFTY SPOT will come down to 3100-3110, 3030-40 levels. NIFTY SPOT strong support at 2940-50 levels.
Weekly Trend (05-01-2009 to 09-01-2009) Volatile and Mix
2715 / 2810 / 2880 / 2945 / 2980 [NIFTY SPOT:3046.75] 3140-50 / 3180 / 3245 / 3275
8700 / 8825 / 9160 / 9390 / 9615 / 9730 [SENSEX : 9958] 10270-300 / 10415 / 10630-40
4475 / 4835 / 5050 [ BANK NIFTY : 5199.85 ] 5415 / 5630
2710 / 2880 / 2985 [ NIFTY FUTURE : 3053.6] 3160 / 3265
LONG BUILDUP IS WITNESSED IN SELECT MID CAP STOCKS,THIS WEEK RALLY MAY CONTINUE IN THESE MIDCAPS NAMELY CHAMBAL,NAGARJUNA,HCC,IVRCL,PVT BANK.
On Higher Side Markets may Face Stiff Resistance @ 3150-3245 & Huge Support @ 2950-3000 Band. NIFTY Jan Calls added 1.46Cr Shrs in OI,Puts added 1.87Cr OI
RANBAXY LABS(C-250.25): Weekly Chart Looking Strong
Buy Around 240-45,Tgt 265/295+,Support 225/200
Gold Technical 1st P.P Resis at 889, 4week high of 892, 2nd P.P Resis at 900, 38.2% retracement 52 week high of 908 and 14day RSI at 70% 912
>>>Crude Oil Outlook>>> Crude Oil Ready 2 Crack Soon; We'r Expecting Big Fall
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