Charts shown here is the one year weekly charts with 2- Period RSI combination behind the price. As Per the 2- Period RSI pattern formation we are in a TOP formation which could extend 3-5 weeks. And right now we are about to complete the 3 week tommorow.
Also as per the pattern no new high cant be made.
Red Rectangles Shows that we are in a Top Formation and the Blue lines indicates
the TOP where RSI>95
This Pattern will fail if new high are made. If you are a 2- Period RSI believer. Then short the market at high with a strict stop loss of 3124 which is just above the new high formed last week. And one can continue his shorts until no new highs are made.
Market will loose its fake upside game after 1-2 weeks later without seeing a new high.
Short Reliance too if the week forget to close above 1245
Dear Friends,
My Heartiest wishes for a Happy and Prosperous New year to all of you and your families. Like most of you, I am also looking forward to this year to bring rays of new lights to our lives which will enlighten us towards better investing decision that would lead to a prosperous future.
Year 2008 was the year of movers and shakers. While the stock markets woke up to a worrisome state of valuations, the year, as it moved ahead turned out to be gloomy with financial turmoil and recession gripping the state of affairs. Globally, the situation worsened and all measures to built in confidence of Investors in the markets proved to be ineffective. We have moved in the New year with the wounds of the past year. But Year 2009 brings in a mix of emotions to the stock markets. Lets see what this year has in store for us.
The Fear Factor
The Scars of the mayhem of 2008 are still looming on the Investing Community. The Credit Crisis, US Recession, Global Slowdown, Commodity price Crash , Bubble bursting of Real Estate Stocks are not the things of Past. These are the wounds that will be carried in 2009 and would continue to haunt the markets. The L (Liquidity) Factor which laid the foundation of the Historical rise of stock prices in the Year 2007 is missing. Even at current levels Investors are not confident of putting their money into Equity. Why ? That’s the Fear Factor. The Fear that markets may go down deeper as the Global slowdown unfolds itself to emerging economies. The Fear that corporate results in 2009 may not turn out to be good stories. The Fear that globally, the economies may take much longer time to build back the confidence on Investors in the Markets.
It’s Foggy all around
The biggest cause of concern for the common Investor is lack of clarity on how the things will fan out in future. For us it’s important that the Foreign Institutional Investor drive back with Dollars to our country and Invest in our markets. It’s important that our companies remain competent and profitable and continue on the growth path. It’s important that the great Indian Consumption story revives itself. Being the Election Year, it’s important that the country has political stability and the investor perceive the outcome as good for the nation. It’s important that our youth remains employed and wrath of recession do not fall on their jobs. It’s important that not only we, but globally the economies turn around with greater resilience. But when will these things happen is a question mark. The Uncertainty is that when we will come out of this uncertainty !
Hope of Revival
Every night is followed by a day which removes the shadow of darkness and provides a new lease of life. Stock Markets are no exception. It’s not the first time that we are seeing such a meltdown. It has happened in past and if we go by history , we have recovered from these meltdowns.
The History shows that these major crash have taken time to heal and Rebound, but ultimately we did recovered and performed well. The current downtrend may take whole of Year 2009 to consolidate or even the next year, but it has to rebound and hence if you want to reap handsome gains, you would need to invest in the downtrend and wait patiently as the markets settles and unsettles and again settles at the turn of events.
Confident of our abilities
We had braved earlier downtrends and emerged as a stronger economy. We have the ability and stuff to do that again. India has the ability not only to face the current crisis, but it should also show the world the way to get out of the current mess. The world today is looking at countries like India and china to save them from the crisis. The Reason is that the foundation of our growth story is deep rooted and is fundamental in nature as against the ill regulated practices of the developed countries. If we look at the factor that helped India speed up its growth, we will find that these pillars are equally strong. We still have the demographic advantages, we are young, we have huge population which drives our Consumption story, We are committed to develop our Infrastructure, Our companies have proved their mettle, we have huge natural resources and above all we have a positive frame of mind which says that we will manage to emerge as a winner. In my opinion, India and other emerging countries would continue to attract Investment, once we are through this lull period of slowdown.
Outlook for Investors
The Year 2009 will not be a year of surprises. It will be a year in which an Investor would have to show his patience, choose stocks at reasonable valuations and wait for these stocks to perform. The worst may not be behind us, but the year 2009 should end towards a path of gradual recovery.
If the correction from 3110 to 2813 is the correction for the rise of 2570 - 3110(540 points), a very good upside is possible.We will follow it one day at a time.
Presently the 5 DMA & 25 DMA set up suggests a fast rise.
As the very short term is overbought, there might be a consolidation around 3020/30 - 3060/70 area before resuming the uptrend.
We will continue to watch the channel supports presently at 3000.
(An alternative view to be kept in mind: Nifty can consolidate between 2800 - 3100 before making a major upmove..So watch its status at 3085 - 3110 area)
A classic example of market behaviour can be understood by following the Satyam Saga....Before the bad news hit the mkt, Satyam has fallen in a very short time from 500+ to 220. On the break of the news it kept falling to ridiculous level of 115 on 24.12.08. Since then, it has rallied from that low of 115 to 183 now. Same goes for Market too.. By following the prices, you can make money even if you miss the tops and the bottoms..No Econmist or a fundamental analyst said decisively what was wrong with the market a year ago but the prices did so in Jan.08 and the bad news came later.
I am not calling a major bottom here..I just want to make money and leave the "Hunt for those bottoms" to CNBC & others who need to tell stories whole day..I must admit here we learn a lot from these business channels..Take the facts and leave the froth..
I wish everyone a content and successful days all through this year and more.
Buy BANKINDIA above 297 SL 290 Target 301-305-310
Buy ONGC above 684 SL 671 Target 678-704
Buy TATAPOWER above 793 SL 772 Target 811-825
Sell BATA below 105 SL 109 Target 103-101-98
Sell DIVIS LAB below 1328 SL 1350 Target 1313-1307
NIFTY FUTURE
ABOVE 3049 TARGET 3084-3099-3120
BELOW 3022 TARGET 3003-2970-2934
NIFTY FUTURE (3044)
Resistance : 3070 / 3100 / 3125
Support : 3020 / 2990 / 2945
NIFTY (3033) : If Nifty sustains above 3060,then one can expect some more participation for next 4-5 days. Then the next levels would be 3090-3135
Resistance : 3060 / 3090 / 3110 / 3135 / 3160
Support : 2990-80 / 2945-35 / 2900
SENSEX (9903) : Heavyweights are displaying strength and so looks like the market should be up up & a Technical Breakout Is Possible.
Resistance : 9980 / 10055 / 10300
Support : 9870 / 9820 / 9765-50 / 9635
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 2.10% with 33% decreasing volumes indicating not only short covering but forming of long positions too.
For further up move, NIFTY SPOT need to trade above 3120 levels.
On Friday ,Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 3035,Sl Below 3015,Tgt 3055-3080-3095-3110-3135,
Sustain Below 3000,Sell with Sl Above 3020,Tgt 2990-2935-2845.
Buy BHARTI Above 720,Tgt 730-740-755,Sl 710
Buy BIOCON Above 125,Tgt 130-135-145,Sl 115
Buy MCDOWELL Above 900,Tgt 910-925-945,Sl 890
HDIL : Enjoyed yesterday from 135 to 142. Today also Buy On Dips Around 138-39,Sl 135,Tgt 145/50/55+++
BOMBAY DYEING : Buy Above 200,Sloss 195,Tgt 210+++
Buy NEYVELI LIGNITE Above 68,Tgt 73/75/80,Sl 65
Buy IDBI Above 68,Tgt 72/75/80,Sl 65
Buy TITAN above 942
Buy BHARATI SHIPYARD for Delivery @78-80
TATAPOWER(786) : Buy with Sloss Below 770,Tgt 805-815
Buy LICHSGFIN,Above 235,Tgt 243/47,Sl 230
Sell ASIANPAINT Below 885,Tgt 875-865-845,Sl 895
Sell Dr.REDDY Below 465,Tgt 460-455-445,Sl 472
Sell RANBAXY Below 250,Tgt 245-240-230,Sl 255
RPL LTD
Buy Above 92,Sl 90,Tgt 93/95
Sell Below 89,Sl 91,Tgt 86/84
SAIL LTD
Buy Above 83,Sl 81,Tgt 84.5/86.5
Sell Below 80,Sl 81,Tgt 79.5/76.5
ICICI BANK
Buy Above 470,Sl 465,Tgt 475/480/485
Sell Below 460,Sl 465,Tgt 455/445
FUTURES
Buy BHARTIAIRTEL Fut Above 725
Buy DENABANK Jan @ 34,Sl 33,Tgt 34.7/35.35/36.3/37+ (Lot Size 2625)
REL (612.4) : Buy @ 595,Sl 590,Tgt 620/628. Or If Open High Sell @ 630-35,Sl 645,Tgt 610/605/600
SBIN ( 1316) : Buy @ 1295,Sl 1285,Tgt 1320/1335 (Avoid in Last Hour) Or On any ground Opens High Sell for Intraday @ 1340/50,Sl 1365,Tgt 1325+
JINDALSTEEL : CMP JAN FUTURE 955 : Technically view bullish for today trading and for this week also.
Buy Around 945-955,Sl 930,Tgt 965/975/1000.
CHAMBAL : CMP JAN FUTURE 39.25 : Technically view bullish for today trading and for this week also.
Buy, Sl 36,Tgt 40/41/43.
GVKPIL : CMP JAN FUTURE 23.75 : For Trading in this Month Buy/Accumulate it with Sloss 20,Tgt 28 or above.
Buy Around 23-24,Sl 22,Tgt 25/26++
Sell BPCL Jan @ 362,Sl 366,Tgt 360/358/354/349/345/338/334 (Lot Size 550)
RCOM (245.4) : Sell @ 255.Sl 260,Tgt 240/35/30 / Positional Trader can Sell with SL 265,T 230/225 (2-3 days)
Buy RCOM Jan 220Pa @ 250/255,Sl 260 (For 2/3 days,Tgt 230/225)
POSTIONALLY
BUY GOLD ABOVE 13840 SL 13750 TGT 14000-14200-14400+
Nifty closed above resistence trendline and is looking bullish in eod charts.
now next target comes as 3125 -30 levels.
however any closing below 2990 will negate this upmove, and all longs shoud have sl below 2990 on closing basis hereon.
for intraday, support exists at 3010-2990
resistence is at 3055-3082
however since the traders participation & volume is less this week due to holidays, i expect nifty to take proper direction next week only.till then try and keep your trades to intraday strictly.
yday nifty went upto fibo lvl 3040 where some reaction was expected after crossing gap 3017-27.
today the resistance lvl is 3072 on sloping trendline on upper side and above that the previous high of 3110 which may act as a significant resistance.
Today Nifty Range: 3003-3096, Bias: Positive to Neutral
Sector Watch: Bullish on Sugar, Realty, Steel
Top picks: Buy Rolta, Renuka, BajajHind, HDIL, HCC,
Today Strategy: Buy on Declines
Call: BUY HDIL 140-141, Stop Loss: 135, Target: 150-152
Nifty :: An Belt Hold Line bullish candle pattern with fresh double top breakout.. Now put short term S.L just below breakout 2990.. Watch three important resistance level 3076/3110/3165.. Book short term profit at higher level and enter again in deep with strictly S.L. (2990). Close above 3110 give higher top higher bottom formation and given more strength for up swing but we repeat here book short term profit at high.. Strategy for 2nd Jan Buy on deep (S.L 2975) sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 3042/3076/3110/ 3165… Supports at 3012/2990/2975/2965/2940/2900..
Buy DLF TGT: 299,307 SL: 292
Buy UNITECH TGT: 46.40, 48, SL: 44.9
Buy RELINFRA TGT: 628,640, SL: 615
Buy ICICIBANK TGT: 476,483, SL: 466
Buy Niftyfutures TGT: 3075, 3090 SL: 3063
Sell Niftyfutures TGT: 3090, 3070 SL: 3125
Nifty (3033) Sup 2990 Res 3075
Buy Indian Bank (145) SL 141
Target 151, 154
Buy Lanco Infra (163) SL 159
Target 170, 172
Buy Bank Of India (295) SL 290
Target 303, 307
Buy PNB (532) SL 427
Target 540, 543
Sell Wipro (248) SL 252
Target 240, 237
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