Sensex - 9533.52 (+204.60)
Short Term Turning Dates (+/- 1 Day)* -
(* Effect can start few hours to 1 day earlier)
Dec 29th (** Downward Jerk Later in day which may extend to Tuesday - Signal Strength Medium **)
Dec 31st (** Volatile Movement, likely to be higher initially - Signal Strength Medium **)
Jan 02nd (** 2 way Movement, 2nd part may show recovery - Signal Strength Medium **)
Technical Outlook (30th December 2008)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty has achieved the bearish target of 2850 given a couple of days back & now it is ripe for recovery to 2895 & 2980 with strong resistance at 2925. On the bearish side, another close below 2900 can target 2700 in near future." Nifty opened on a bearish note on negative cues from global market & continued to trade in negative territory till 11:30 am. However, institutional buying initiated the technical recovery & in the process Nifty touched the target of 2895 & it is heading towards the target of 2980 which was given a couple of days back. But at the same time, Nifty may face resistance at current levels & drift downward for corrective decline to 2875 & below.
As far as, EST charts are concerned, Nifty is slightly overbought in intra day charts & ripe for corrective decline to 2875 & on the other hand, successive close above 2930 may initiate further recovery to 2980 & 3050 in next 2-4 days. But it must be kept in mind that many index heavy weight stocks have already given bearish breakout in short term charts & targets of which are not achieved. Therefore, any technical recovery towards 2980 or 3050 may be used for short term profit booking to re-enter at later stage.
Sector wise, select auto, IT, oil exploration, infrastructure, pharma, banking, IT education, power stocks attracted buying at lower levels which lifted Nifty from 2812 to 2931 (rise of more than 120 points in last few hours). On the other hand, select auto, sugar, telecom, shipping, infra were among the losers during the day. As far as A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 7:5 with 496 declines & 681 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty bounced back on expected lines to touch the first target of 2895 & headed towards second target of 2980 with EST resistance at 2925-2930. Now charts are in favor of further recovery to 2980+ but in the meanwhile, minor corrective decline to 2875 is not ruled out. Failure to close above 2930 will invite another round of profit booking towards 2700 in next few days. The best strategy should be to buy lightly if moves/stays above 2930 for quick gain of 50-100 points or use higher levels to book profit to re-enter after 10-15 days.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (29th December 2008 - 02nd January 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Very Volatile Week with Sharp swings till 01st Jan.
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, both Sun and Mars are placed in Sagittarius along with Pluto. Neecha (Debilitated) Jupiter continues to be stationed in Capricorn along with Rahu, Neptune, Mercury (entered on 28th) and Moon. Venus would move to Aquarius on 29th where Uranus is already positioned. Saturn is stationed in Leo. Ketu is placed in Cancer. Moon will Transit through Capricorn, Aquarius and Pisces during this week. Important to note that Mercury entered Capricorn on 28th December and Venus entered Aquarius on 29th December and Saturn will get retrograde on 31st December 2008.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit Mars will conjunct Pluto on 29th December which can cause sudden fall and rise later. Mercury will conjunct Jupiter on 31st December which is very bullish and capable of making a rise of more than 2%. Saturn will turn retrograde on 31st December which will cause volatility in terms of fall first and sudden up move later. Transit Venus will have sextile aspect with Pluto on 05th January 2009 which can cause fall of 2% or more after 05th.
Moon's transit through Capricorn and Aquarius will cause lot of volatility and Moon's entry to Pisces is generally bearish. But Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, it appears, that Market may give a Downward Jerk on Monday till early Tuesday but expected to bounce back soon and 31st December may be very volatile but mildly bullish. Sentiments may remain bullish till 02nd January.
Strict Caution is advised to all Traders and Investors that period from 29th December to 09th January which does not look favorable for World Financial Markets. Both Investors and Traders must stay Liquid and avoid trading in a big way which could result in losses. A Good Rally in Stock Market is possible after 09th January.
Despite volatility, Crude Oil likely to rise in January after initial decline. But Gold and Silver are expected to Decline in coming weeks. Indian Rupee will also be under pressure against US Dollar.
Astrologically there are "3 Turning Dates this week - All Medium". Most of the Indices like Nifty/ Nifty Future/Bank Nifty/Nifty MidCap/ CNXIT likely to give good downward Jerk on 29th, Volatile on 31st (Rise and fall) and rise on 02nd January .It must be kept in mind that lot of volatility is expected so trading/ investing in big way may be avoided.
Trading Strategy - Keeping in mind the different Astrological Turning Dates during the week, For conservative Traders "Selective Short Selling on Monday (29th) to Book Profit on Monday or early Tuesday. Select Buying on Tuesday (30th) to Book Profit on Wednesday (31st) and again select buying on Thursday (01st) to Book profit on Friday (02nd January) likely to give good returns during the week as far as Nifty Futures, Nifty, Nifty-Madcap and Sensex are concerned. (IMPORTANT- - As already stated many time, Astrological Effects can start few hours to 1 Day earlier then expected so take anticipated market movement as a Guidance only not for over-trading or building large positions on sides of expected trends).
Important Dates
29th December (+/- 1 Day)**
31st December (+/- 1 Day)**
02nd January (+/- 1 Day)**
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver/ Copper
As already mentioned that Crude Oil is preparing for Multi-week Rally which can take it to US$65 - US$85 in coming months. On down side, it has strong support @US$36-US$40. Oil is likely to rise after 25th December till 01st Week of January 2009. Gold, is heading for decline in next 3 weeks despite volatility and initial rise till 01st Week of January. Silver is also showing weakness between 01st January to 14th January. Long positions may be avoided after 01st January for next 2-3 weeks.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, Indian Rupee is expected to remain WEAK against US Dollar for next few days before bouncing back.
US Markets
Astrologically, US Markets may be slightly positive in next week but sharp swings are likely to shake the market on down side till 07th/ 08th January 2009.
Technical Stock Recommendations (Short Term)
Indiabulls(143.15)
Stock has risen sharply from 90 to 147 in last 20-25 days putting EST momentum indicators in overbought zone with negative divergences which can bring down the prices to 130 & below in coming days. Part profit booking/short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 148-150 using SL of Rs.6/- & target of 125-130 which may be achieved soon.
IVRCL Infra(140.05)
Stock has been moving in a "Rising Channel" pattern as well as it has formed a "Descending Triangle" pattern with support at 135, breakout from where may target 115-117 in coming days. Part profit booking/short selling may be considered once the stock moves/closes below 135 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 115-117 which may be achieved soon.
Ranbaxy Labs.(234)
Stock, after moving in a consolidation pattern as well as "Complex Inverted Head & Shoulder" pattern has given bullish breakout with good volumes which can take the prices to 255+ in coming weeks. Fresh buying may be considered on declines till 225 using SL of Rs.10/- & target of 245-255 which is likely to be achieved in few sessions.
HDIL(129.35)
Stock has declined sharply from 180 to 120 in last 6 days putting EST momentum indicators in oversold zone with positive divergences which can initiate technical recovery to 138 & 148 in next few sessions. Fresh buying may be considered if the stock moves/stays above 130 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 138 & 148.
Aban Off Shore(666.6)
Stock has declined sharply from 835 to 638 in last 8 days putting EST momentum indicators in oversold zone with positive divergences which can initiate technical recovery to 725-730 in next few sessions. Fresh buying may be considered if the stock moves/stays above 675 using SL of Rs.15/- & target of 725-730.
Sell SATYAMCOMP TGT: 142,138 SL: 149,
Sell HDFCBANK TGT: 1015, 1008 SL: 1030
Buy DLF TGT: 284,288 SL: 276.5
Sell HDIL TGT: 124,120 SL: 128
Buy SATYAMCOMP TGT: 155,159 SL: 148
Buy Niftyfutures Target: 2965, 2980 SL: 2935,
Sell Nifty futures Target: 2965, 2955 SL: 3000.
Sell Niftyfutures Target: 2910, 2890 SL: 2940
I am on leave in Chandigarh and with four kids running around the house and the Xbox – there is really no time for updating the blog but all the same it has become a habit for me so here I go – up and awake after a late session of Halo3. Why do I call the trading yesterday as inconsequential? because the holiday mood extends and the volumes were fairly thin but the flow of the news regarding the Stimulus package and the rate cut by the banks gave it the push it required for a recovery from the otherwise weak market that was slipping red.
The behaviour of entire Asia was somewhat on the same lines – open weak and then went green. Nikkei closed up 0.09%, Hang Seng up 1.02% and Strait Times up 3.18%. Europe was better than Asia FTSE opened green closed green +2.44%, DAX up 1.63% and CAC up 0.47%. US was weak – actually US will remain weak for some time to come now and no amount of news can contribute in any sense to being good. DOW was down 0.37%, Nasdaq down 1.3% and S&P was down 0.39%. Inspite of all the negativities' the Asia today morning has opened green and climbed to better levels. Nikkei is up 1.28% as of now, Hang Seng is up 0.6% and Strait Times too seem to have made an attempt to go green but remains 0.43% in red.
On the candles yesterday the candle was nice white one but unfortunately could not close above the 20 EMA, The markets trail the mid of Bollinger Bands and the bands remain of somewhat the same width only. The volumes were low and low participation shows. RSI is facing up again but to call it bullish – not yet. Slow Stochastic – both the red and green lines are in the oversold territory and a small bounce back with the help of the was due and may happen again. TRIX has changed its attitude and may change its view to bearish. MACD positive divergence has almost disappeared – but still is alive.
Pivot data… Notice the pivot at the same place as before.
R3 3050 against 3076 Yesterday
R2 3007
R1 2964
Pivot 2888 against 29887 yesterday
S1 2845
S2 2769
S3 2726 against 2698 Yesterday
Projected High Range 2926 to 2986
Projected Low Range 2876 to 2816
Fib Projected High 2963
Fib Projected Low 2779
Best of luck to everyone who is in the markets today – I am out….
The Indian market opened on weak note and saw smart pullback in afternoon session and close in green zone . For coming session if nifty trade above 2943 it can test 2985 -3010 zone on the lower side 2830 will act as support zone.
NIFTY FUTURE
BELOW 2913 TARGET 2870-2850-2817 -Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
Buy INFOSYS above 1126 SL 1108 Target 1144-1162
Buy NTPC above 179 SL 176 Target 181-184
Buy PUNJLLOYD above 146 SL 142 Target 150-154
Buy RANBAXY above 237 SL 225 Target 248-253
Sell MARUTI below 495 SL 504 Target 488-479
Sell TATACOMM below 493 SL 505 Target 486-478
Nifty :: As per our yesterday post Mid term momentum up and that's why lots of buying seen at every decline.. Last candle made an Engulfing Bullish pattern..Now for 30th Dec put short term buying S.L at 2900.. Below 2900 two more strong support at down side 2860/2805.. up to 2900 our strategy for 30th Dec buy on deep sell at high...At higher side up to 2970 momentum up, above 2970 once again momentum turns strong.. Resistance for up move at 2960/2996/3020/3050/ 3088.. Supports at 2902/2860/2805...
_____________________________
| Nifty Close | 2922 |
| Trend | UP…( Buy ) |
| Resistance | 2966-3003 |
| Support | 2846-2777 |
| Stop Loss | 2888 |
Trading Zone 30-12-2008
______________________________
| Scrip | Cmp | Trigger | Upper Target | Lower Target | Buy /Stop Loss |
| Reliance | 1246 | 1228 | 1270-1292 | NA | 1237 |
| SBI | 1271 | 1251 | 1297-1322 | NA | 1265 |
| ABAN | 666 | 662 | 684-701 | NA | 660 |
| RNRL | 54 | 52 | 56-58 | NA | 52 |
| Rel.Capital | 539 | 527 | 557-574 | 498 | 534 |
| TITAN | 906 | 906 | 949-992 | 868 | Break Out above 917 |
| RPL | 88 | 87 | 91-93 | NA | 87 |
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| Alert Name: India, Bullish Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 3.00; Volume at least 50,000; Classic Patterns; Bullish; Daily Events. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Alert Name: India, Bearish Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Volume at least 50,000; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Alert Name: Any Short Term Pattern Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price 5.00 to 300.00; Volume between 50,000 and 10,000,000; Short-term Patterns; Any Opportunity Type (Bullish, Bearish or Other); Daily Events. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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