| Markets For 29-12-2008 |
NIFTY ( 2857)
Support : 2830-10 / 2790 / 2760 / 2720-10
Resistance : 2895 / 2930-45 / 2975/ 3005-15 / 3030
SENSEX
Support : 9180 / 9030
Resistance : 9595 / 9855
NIFTY FUTURE ( 2862)
Support : 2825 / 2780
Resistance : 2885 / 2945 / 3015
NIFTY ANALYSIS : It was the 4 consecutive lower closing for Nifty. After two weeks rally, some correction was expected but if Nifty closes below 2814 for two consecutive days then it may slide down to around 2650-2600 level. Now, 3100 level will be strong resistance area for the Nifty. Investment buying suggested only if Nifty closes above 3100. Most of the heavyweights are again started showing the sigh of weakness. Particularly, specific stocks from SOFTWARE, ENGINEERING and AUTO sectors are looking weak on charts. For Monday, Nifty has support comes at 2810 then 2790 and resistance exists at 2945.
NIFTY FUTURE : Now for a day trading view, It will face resistance at 2885 if trade above this will lead ti to the 2945 to 3015 level. At downside last support at 2825 if close below this then it may retest 2500 level soon.
BSE SENSEX : It has a support around 9180 level suppose not break then again it try to kiss 9445 and then 9595. below 9180 it is more chance to touch 9030 to 8765 level. Bull run confirm only after 2 consicutive close above 10010.
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI flat with increasing volumes indicating unwinding of long positions and forming of fresh short positions too.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile. More weakness expected below 2840 levels.
On the Monday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 2860,Sl Above 2880,Tgt 2825-2810-2770-2645,
Sustain Above 2885,Buy with Sl Below 2865,Tgt 2925-2945-2960-2995-3005.
Selling Expecting Once SENSEX Starts Trading Below 9295, Till Then Be Stock Specific Only.
INTRADAY
RELIANCE : Below 1230 level it try to kiss 1185 and if break this too then slide up to 1160 to 1110 level. At upside above 1230 it go for 1255 to 1300 level.
RIL Jan Fut (1212) : If open Low Buy @ 1185,Sl 1170,Tgt 1220/1230/1255
SBI : For a day trading view,it face Resistance at 1260 level once cross this then go for 1290 to 1340 level. At downside it has support at 1205 and then 1170.
SBI Jan Fut (1244) : Sell @ 1270-65,Sl 1280,Tgt 1220 below it then 1205
OR
If Open Low Buy @ 1210,Sl 1190,Tgt 1235/1245/1250
Buy 1260 SBI Call When SBI in Fut is Around 1220-05,Sl 1190,Tgt as Above
TATA STEEL : Above 215 it go for 220 to 235 level. At downside support at 205 and then 195.
Sell TATASTEEL Below 210,Sl 215,Tgt 205-200-195
L&T : Above 755 it go for 775 to 805 level.at downside support at 725 and then 705.
L&T Jan Fut (744.4) : Sell @ 760,Sl 780,Tgt 740-725 / Position traders hold short with SL 780
Buy 700LT Jan Put @ 760+ 770,Sl 780 & Hold For Day With Same Targets
INFOSYS : Now it is possible to touch 1080. if break this then slide up to 1050 to 995 level. At upside it face hurdle at 1135 level and then 1165.
ONGC : It is possible to it come down upto 615 level and if break this then slide more upto 595 to 555 level. At upside it face hurdle at 660 if cross this then it go for 680 to 720 level.
Buy ONGC Above 640,Sl 630,Tgt 650/655/665/670++
REL CAPITAL : Now it down up to 495 level if break this then slide upto 470 to 440 level. At upside face resistance at 530 and then 550 level.
REL INFRA : It has a support around 510 level if break this then slide upto 480 to 435 level. At upside it face hurdle at 560 level if cross this then go up to 590 to 635 level.
BHEL : It face hurdle at 1325 level if cross this then go for 1355 to 1410. At downside support @ 1265 if break then panic up to 1235 to 1180 may seen.
DLF : Now it slide up to 265 level and if break this then 255 to 235 is possible. At upside it face hurdle at 285 and then 295.
Buy RCOM Jan Fut Above 200,Sl 195,Tgt 205/215/220+
Buy IOC Jan Fut @ 418-19,Sl 415,Tgt 421/423/425/432/438/442/446/450 454 (Lot Size 600)
Sell SATYAM Jan Fut @ 136,Sl 138,Tgt 135/134/132/131/128/127/126 (Lot Size 600)
GE SHIP : Exports down, business down, then how shipping co’s will be benefited? Sell Below 185 keep Stoploss 190 lower targets 175, 165
WELGUJ : Sell below 100 keep,Stoploss at 105 lower Targets 92 around.
Sell BHARTI Below 685,Tgt 675-660-640,Sl 690
Sell CMC Below 295,Tgt 275-255-,Sl 305
Sell JETAIRWAYS Below 185,Tgt 175-165-150,Sl 190
Sell ROLTA Below 110,Tgt 105-95-75,Sl 115
Buy HCL-INSYS Above 88,Tgt 90-95-105,Sl 85
Buy NATIONALUM Above 180,Tgt 185-190-200,SL 175
TATA POWER (730) : Sell,Stoploss Above 745,Tgt 715-705.
Sell ADLABS Below 165
POSITIONAL FUTURE
Sell TATACOMM , ONGC , TATASTEEL
Markets give up gains post Christmas.
US is closed for next few days. Asian markets may cherish this week.
I see markets may remain in upward trend this week..
If people say 6000 is the bottom (Sensex) we should have atleast corrected till 7850 on Sensex till now
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
--> NIFTY FUT Total OI down 29.35%, NIFTY FUT down 6.97%, last week. OI down mainly due to expiry.
--> Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 47 Stock FUTS closed negative,1 Stock FUTS closed positive and 2 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
--> OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 126.95% prices down 59.18%, 3100 CE is up 200.46% prices down 65.30% last week
showing call writing.
--> OI of NIFTY 2800 PE OI is up 198.54% prices up 80.57%, 2700 PE is up 277.43% prices up 87.84% last week showing put buying.
NIFTY 3000 PE OI is up 101.65% prices up 76.51% showing buyers still not booked profit.
WEEKLY VIEW ON NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Bearish
NIFTY FUT total OI down 29.35%, NIFTY FUT down 6.97%, last week.
OI of NIFTY 3000 CE is up 126.95%, 3100 CE is up 200.46% with falling prices, showing call writing.
OI of NIFTY 2800 PE is up 198.54%, 2700 PE is up 277.43%, with rising prices showing put buying.
NIFTY FUT OI down due to expiry. I expect NIFTY SPOT Support at 2770-80, 2720-30 levels.
Bounce expect from these levels.
SECTOR WATCH
MIDCAP IT STOCKS
Trend : Bearish
OI of 3IINFOTECH FUT down 1.45%, COREPROTEC FUT down 5.07%, NIITLTD FUT down 22.81%, OFSS FUT down 13.19%,
TECHM FUT down 24.69% OI down due to expiry but 3iINFOTECH FUT,COREPROTEC FUT and OFSS FUT showing shorts build up. OI of FSL FUT up 17.94%, ICSA FUT up 23.66% also showing shorts build up. We expect negative move in coming week.
SUGAR
Trend : Bullish
OI of BAJAJHIND FUT up 6.34%, BALRAMCHIN FUT down 11.98%, RENUKA FUT down 4.38% and
TRIVENI FUT down 9.78% last week. BAJAJHIND FUT, RENUKA FUT, TRIVENI FUT showing long
positions build up. Only BALRAMCHIN FUT showing short covering. We expect positive move in coming week.
Weekly Trend (29-12-2008 to 2-01-2009) Volatile and Mix
2565-80 / 2675-95 / 2745 / 2780 /2840 [NIFTY SPOT] 2910 / 2945 / 2990-3010 / 3050 / 3115 / 3160
8455 / 8750-90 / 8960 [SENSEX] 9520 / 9630 / 9840 / 10175 .
Weekly Market (29-12-08 to 2-1-2009)
Market may recover after sharp fall in this week Nifty lost 220 points (-7.1%) & Sensex lost 770 points (-7.63%) in the last week. Nifty closed below the 2,900 mark while the Sensex drifted below the 9,500 level. Hopes of further rate cuts by the RBI, Rate reduce in fuel prices and a likely second government stimulus package to pump prime the economy may trigger a recovery on the bourses after a sharp slide last week.
In last week, Inflation slipped to a nine-month low, 6.61% against 6.84% (WoW). The government said advance taxes paid by companies declined 22% reflecting economic slowdown. Also there is now tension of war at Indo-Pak border, but as of now both nation’s government said that, there would be no Indo-Pak war.
However, trading volumes are likely to remain low as most foreign fund managers are on a vacation for Christmas and the New Year. Use Stop loss strictly in your every trade, because market is heavily volatile with narrow trading range.
Last week nifty could not sustain above 3000. Now below 2840,Nifty may touch 2780-2695 and if Nifty Close Above 2910 at least for two days then it may touch 2990,3050 to 3110 in coming days.
NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPP BAND NEAR 2810-2750.CAN SEE SOME BOUNCE THIS WEEK.
NIFTY HAVEN'T YET BROKEN THE LOWER TRENDLINE,CAN TAKE SUPP NEAR THAT AND MAY BOUNCE ON NEWS TO HIGHER LVLS..3025-3050 BAND WILL GIVE STIFF RESISTANCE
IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE TO NIFTY WILL BE 2910-2985 BAND.AND IMM SUPP WILL BE 2810-2750..BEL 2750 NIFTY CAN FALL AT SWIFTER PACE& BEL 2633.BEARS WILL RULE MKT.
ALL EYES ON FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE AND INDO PAK TENSION
EQUITY MKT OUTLOOK'09:WE R EXPECTIN MKT 2 BE IN RANGE OF 7300-13500.MAJOR EVENT:ELECTION,GDP NO(7.5%)INFLATION(DWN)INT.RATE CUT 6%.EARNINGS
CURRENCY MKT OUTLOOK'09 : INR/USD in The Range Of 43.50-51.5
COMMODITIES MKT OUTLOOK'09 : GOLD RANGE $720-$1100,CRUDE RANGE $32-$62.COPPER RANGE MCX125-190.SILVER MCX RANGE 15500-22000
Simple Moving Averages –
| 5 D | 8 D | 13 D | 20 D | 39 D | 50 D | 200 D |
| 2972 | 2990 | 2958 | 2873 | 2852 | 2908 | 4111 |
At present we lie between 39 days SMA. Only if we cross 50 day SMA we heades towards 3050.
Fibonacci price projections-
|
| 0% | 61.8% | 100% | 161.8% | 261.8% |
| Up | 2503 | 2707 | 2833 | 3037 | 3367 |
| Dn | 2833 | 2629 | 2503 | 2299 | 1969 |
Some Stocks Views:-
CAIRN (159): Buy Above 163 for Target of 174-180-190 with Stop loss of 152.
GTOFFSHORE (212):Buy Above 215 with Stop loss of 206. Target is 228-233-239.
Bank of Baroda (263):Buy Only Above 266 for Target of 280-287-294 with Stop loss of 253.
PFC (123): Sell this stock if close below 119 with stop loss of 124. Target is 116-111-106.
EDUCOMP BUY BETWEEN 2240-2355 FOR TGT 2525-2650-2800-3000+ KEEP STOPLOSS BELOW 2210......
RELIANCE POSSIBLE UPSIDE 30% FROM 1170-1180 LEVELS.
GVKPIL CAN TOUCH 30 BEFORE JAN EXPIRY
FIRST SOURCE SOLUTIONS IS HOT ABV 13.5 FOR 30-50% UPSIDE
DLF CAN TOUCH 400 VERY SOON ACCUMULATE IN ALL DIPS.
NIFTY : NIFTY KEEP SL 2745 & BUY JAN FUT IN ALL DECLINES FOR TGT 2950-3012-3050-3114-3200 IN JANUARY.HEDGE WITH 2600 PUT JAN & PLAY.........
Buy 2800Call Around 165,Tgt 210-240
Firstly why did the wonderful upmove die? Pakistan crying war? maybe… or perhaps maybe not. It would have been nice had i not been travelling and seeing the debate as to why the markets did what they did last week. There are so many reasons once again to justify both sides of the story really. There is a fiscal stimulus package that seems to be coming in the next week, the advance tax numbers have been low and that does indicate the slowdown that is happening. We have slipped below the 25 EMA that was holding out till yesterday. We have also closed below the midway of the Bollinger bands that does not speak too well about the trend either. The volumes are low so the markets can really be manipulated without really indicating the strength of the trend. In any case the trend as of now can be debated whatever but seems to point down only. There is no real indication of recovery – my problem is that the levels that I have expected the market to move too has not been achieved and this unfortunately is the second time. I guess I should stop looking at those targets – but then the gut say that we will (will) move to a little higher levels than what we have touched now before we see the lows that the markets have in store for us. I am updating this page with little lesser than ideal data that I keep in front of me while I write about the next day. As I had said yesterday I am in a train and the only contact I have with the life line of our generation – called internet is the Tata-Indicom data card and the laptop that is supposed to have 5-6 hours of juice. I am mighty impressed. Before I started on to writing this – since I had not copied the charts and the details – I started to see a movie… “The Constant Gardner” – I have finished with the movie and now I am on to writing this article and the battery is going good.
As far as the global cues go – Hang Seng was closed in Asia on 26th and while Nikkei went up and closed in green up by 1.63% the Strait Times closed in red by about 0.66%. No one out of them that can show us the direction. Europe too was closed – so no cues are good cues… no? Us was in green though the trading was lack lustre with low volumes as most of the traders pr
Okay there are not likely to be any embedded chart this time. So just visualise ;-). This is the fourth day with the black candle showing us the way to salvation. So that means the Doji that we saw the second time over really did call out the end of the run up. mind you the run up was not bad – from a low of 2502 touched on 20 Nov – up all the way to 3106 high touched on 19 Dec. But I still missed the levels of 3200-3500 I looked forward too. The candle on last closing was bad and black in colour. As I mentioned earlier – we are now below the half way mark on the Bollinger bands and the lower band is trailing at 2517 and that can be our target on near term basis. As the markets go down the lower band will also reduce in value so you can have a fair idea as to where we are heading too if we are to trail the lower Band. See the volumes – no pun intended but we can hit the Dipawali lows if we continue at this rate. MACD divergence is just about in the positive and any more black candle can plunge this also into the negative divergence zone. RSI is going bad at this rate – look it at confidently dipping down. The Slow Stochastics also do not portray a good picture so see it going down? only saving grace is that after the blue line too joins the red line below the 20 marker we will be able to say that the markets are oversold. Till then – you can see it on the charts.See TRIX also carefully – it has stopped going up or shall I say looking up. So the up move seems to come to a halt. Infact now till the new year – there is a virtual holiday going on. So if there is a plan by bears or bulls – they can pull a fast one as the other party sleeps – and that is what the volumes show. The real show will start from January onwards.
Lie Doggo is what I would suggest everyone and wait for some more participants to show some interest in the markets.
R3 3076 against 3036 on Friday
R2 3003
R1 2930
Pivot 2887 against 2928 on Friday
S1 2814
S2 2771
S3 2698 against 2820 on Friday
Projected High Range 2908 to 2966
Projected Low Range 2953 to 2895
Fib Projected High 2991
Fib Projected Low 2812
See the Friday’s intraday chart? we never really breached the resistance on the up side but slided below the pivot with ease and went on past the Support 1 to Support 2
bounce may come near 2800 or on the trendline as shown by the ellipse on the chart.
any pullback above 3110 or toward 3240 means sub wave 5 of C-4 going on and wave counting will have to be revised.
at the moment it looks like 5 subwaves of C of C-4 are over at 3110 and C-5 down has begun.
C-5 has tgts 2200/2000/1670.
C-5 confirmation will be trading below trendline and below 2502.
Many friends visiting the blog had been asking about the road ahead ,next year ..Well friends the NEW YEAR is just a few days away and we all hope that the worst could or would be over and behind us in 2008. Its been a real horror of a year specially jan/oct months..I am posting a MONTHLY CHART with SPEED LINES extending from the top 6357 to the bottom 2252..The chart and the speed lines are self explanatory & very clear.Please use your judgement for your trading and investment calls from hereon, rather than just blindly following FREE CALLS /ADVISE being bombarded by so many experts on WEB SITES and TV CHANNELS.. (its ur hard earned money & they are never responsible for your losses..many learnt it this year the very hard way..)...The best way forward will be to take a new year resolution of at least making a attempt of LEARNING TECHNICALS.. take care ..........CHEERS.
Once we set this important low in Feb-Mar 2009 timeframe, I expect we shall get a huge rally from the lows...which may be around 1800-2000 on Nifty...this rally should happen into late 2009...maybe a 100% rally also...But let us see that when we get there.
Nifty after facing the resistance above 3110, sharply pull backed and closed around the important support levels of 2860. From the weekly chart we can notice that Nifty is trading inside the triangle and the next important support at 2820 levels – where it could find some support before breaking down. RSI also indicates that – yellow line is resistance and the blue line is supporting the Nifty on the lower side. Break out these ranges (triangle -2820 to 3020) would warrant major movement in Nifty, and would indicate the future direction.
Outlook
On weekly charts Nifty is indicating immediate support at 2820 but on the higher side Nifty is facing resistance around 3020 which it would not find that easy to surpass. So, Nifty may find support at 2750 levels if it could not sustain 2820.
Support and Resistance for the week
Support 2820 – 2751 - 2698 - 2647
Resistance 2910 – 2965 – 3020 - 3075
Strategy for the week
Nifty
In the last week blog, I had indicated that I am not comfortable with Nifty and it would be best to avoid Trading Nifty – has I had expected - though Nifty indicated breakout in weekly chart but faced many resistance in daily charts as indicated. Nifty could not pass the resistance 3115 as given. If anyone, who would have bought Nifty with stop loss 2950 would have incurred loss and would have stopped out as indicated in the last week blog as a strategy for compulsive traders.
Since Volumes for past week has been very low with the sharp drop in Nifty, it would be risky to short Nifty at these levels – buying in Nifty is advisable with stop loss of 2750 on closing basis or Sell Nifty on every rise with stop loss of 3010 on closing basis for this week.
Scrip’s Review
Reliance
Hold for the target as indicated 1180, book partial profits or move the stop loss to 1330 and book fully around 1100.
Tata steel
Last week call would have not been initiated, since it never moved above 236 levels.
For this week it would be advisable to short on every rise up to 230 with stop loss of 238 on closing basis or buy 200 put around 220 -230 levels and book partial profit around 200 and remaining around 188.
Infosys
Sell on every rise up to 1170 with closing stop loss 1200 for a target 1000.
ICICI Bank
Hold for the target 410 mentioned last week and move the stops to 445 for further lower target of 375.
HPCL
Book profit or exit, if closes below 271 and re enter on closing above 285 levels.
Trading tips.
Successful trading stands on three pillars. You need to analyze the balance
of power between bulls and bears. You need to practice good money
management. You need personal discipline to follow your trading plan and
avoid getting high in the markets.
Quotes for the week
when you can’t go back, you have to worry only about the best way of moving forward, the rest is up to God, including danger.
Only three days to say Good Bye to the Year 2008 during which financial Tsunami hit the Indian markets along with other world markets and swallowed more than 80 percentage of assets. Year 2008 will also be remembered as a dreadful year due to the terrorist attack on Mumbai and the formation of war clouds along the boarder with Pakistan. Perhaps, these war clouds might have dragged Nifty down last week to 2857 from 3078. Looking forward it is felt that Nifty may move up again as war clouds recede and close the year above Sudha Daivatham (3178) giving hope for the year 2009. As Agni level has receded Nifty may emerge out of Agni level giving opportunity for a buy.
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