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| Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events; Pattern Duration at least 25 days. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Disclaimer : This is my 5th day of learnings with Elliot Wave theory So kindly have advice from Elliot Wave Analyst before taking any position
Iam here just interpreting my view Click the charts to have a clear view
Nifty :: Again momentum sharply turns down with Engulfing bearish candle. Now for 2nd Dec. watch important level as per our last weekly post for 5th wave downward momentum 2633 & 2612.Below 2612 give conformation of 5th leg of B yet to go.((Our 23/11 post (2)May be B leg start as Intermediate impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of 3 over and 4th still running as far as stay below 2860.. Target of 4th in between 2776 to 2860)) Break down of 2612 next strong supports comes at 2508/2450.. Our strategy for 2nd Dec first we watch 2633/2612, below 2612 sell at high buy on deep.. Resistance for up move at 2708/2822/2843.. Supports 2633/2612/2586/2508/2450..
Ofcourse not - the culprits are the Firangis - LOL. Nothing can really work with this kind of Global cues. No chance of recovery when DOW falls 700 odd points - no do not get me wrong - ofcourse the US does not open while we trade but the cues start pouring in with the Europe trading and the US futures giving the direction of opening. When the global markets enjoyed the upswing we had our own problems - now when we thought that our recovery will start for the stocks to catch up the lost ground the Global cues have turned the tables once again and they are weak like hell once again. The markets are also being manipulated to suite a certain number of operators. The FIIs and DIs were net buyers but the quantity was very low - this kept the volume extremely low and perhaps this was the reason that the markets - on otherwise good wicket - turned around to close negative like hell. There are not too many players in the markets now a days. Okay all the blame is not on global cues only - the sales figures from the auto stocks helped bears as the figures were bad. And do not worry we are not the only one in this situation - Bank of Japan too has called for a meeting today(02Dec) kick start the economy. The official line from US is that the country has been in recession from Dec 07.
Asia yesterday was mixed - Nikkei down 1.35%, Hang Seng up 1.59% and Strait Times down 2.44%. Europe opened flat with little negative bias and then dropped never to look up again. FTSE was down - closing 5.19% down, DAX down 5.88% and CAC down 5.59%. US did it again by dropping down 680 points - clocking fourth worst drop ever and closed well in red at the lowest levels for the day. DOw was down 7.70%, Nasdaq was down 8.95% and S&P down 8.93%. Yahoo finance says - I quote "....wall street snapped out of its daydream of a rally and once again faced the harsh reality of recession..."
We came close to the crossing over to the top half of the Bollinger bands. The red 5 EMA line was threatening to cross the 20 EMA line but alas the black candle had to step in. The Bollinger bands are about the same width as before. The volumes as mentioned earlier - are less. MACD positive divergence remains so inspite of the black candle the mood may remain good for some time. RSI looked down because of yesterday - but good so far. Slow stochastic is one indicator that has turned sides. the red line has crossed over below the blue line before reaching the overbought zone. TRIX continues to look up - so even being on the loosing side I remain positive for third consecutive day.
Pivot data…
R3 2995 against 2868 last
R2 2890
R1 2786
Pivot 2727 against 2741 Last
S1 2623
S2 2564
S3 2460 against 2614 Last
Projected High Range 2757 to 2838
Projected Low Range 2825 to 2744
Fib Projected High 2876
Fib Projected Low 2624
A weak opening is certain considering the global cues but should watch out for the recovery towards the afternoon. Crude at 50$ a barrel. What the heck 1/3rd from its high and OPEC now wants to convene a meating and see how the prices can be kept stable at higher levels - LOL
US markets yesterday tumbbled very badly is down on an average of 7%.
Europe was down on an average of 5%.
Asia is bond to open low.
Indian markets will have a gap down to flat opening today.
The support for the Sensex is 8700-8612-8532 and the resistance to the up move is at 9192
Nifty: (2683) the support for the Nifty is at 2650 and the resistance to the up move is at 2860-3113
Its not advisable to short any thing today.
Day Trading ideas.
Mphasis Ltd.
Buy above 168 for targets of 171 and 174
Sell below 156 for targets of 152 and 149
CESC Ltd.
Buy above 214 for targets of 217 and 221
Sell below 204 foir targets of 200 and 197
Aditya Birla Nuvo.
Buy above 504 for targets of 508 and 512
Sell below 494 for targets of 489 and 485
RNRL
Buy above 41.10 for targets of 41.90 and 42.35
Sell below 39.95 for targets of 39.20 and 38.60
Nifty :: Again momentum sharply turns down with Engulfing bearish candle. Now for 2nd Dec. watch important level as per our last weekly post for 5th wave downward momentum 2633 & 2612.Below 2612 give conformation of 5th leg of B yet to go.((Our 23/11 post (2)May be B leg start as Intermediate impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of 3 over and 4th still running as far as stay below 2860.. Target of 4th in between 2776 to 2860)) Break down of 2612 next strong supports comes at 2508/2450.. Our strategy for 2nd Dec first we watch 2633/2612, below 2612 sell at high buy on deep.. Resistance for up move at 2708/2822/2843.. Supports 2633/2612/2586/2508/2450..
The support for the Sensex is 8700-8612-8532 and the resistance to the up move is at 9192
Nifty: (2683) the support for the Nifty is at 2650 and the resistance to the up move is at 2860-3113
Its not advisable to short any thing today.
Day Trading ideas.
Mphasis Ltd.
Buy above 168 for targets of 171 and 174
Sell below 156 for targets of 152 and 149
CESC Ltd.
Buy above 214 for targets of 217 and 221
Sell below 204 foir targets of 200 and 197
Aditya Birla Nuvo.
Buy above 504 for targets of 508 and 512
Sell below 494 for targets of 489 and 485
RNRL
Buy above 41.10 for targets of 41.90 and 42.35
Sell below 39.95 for targets of 39.20 and 38.60
Sell RELIANCE Below 1115 SL 1127 Target 1084-1072
Sell ASIAN PAINTS Below 865 SL 879 Target 848-817
Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 306 SL 311 Target 296-282
Sell GAIL Below 199 SL 202 Target 196-190
Sell CHENNAIPETRO Below 105 SL 107 Target 103-100
Sell NATIONAL ALUM. Below 169 Target 163-157
GVKPIL ( Gvk Power & Infrastructure Limited )
Buy above Rs 16.6, stop Loss Rs16.2, tgt1 Rs17.5, and tgt2 Rs18.5
Sell below Rs15.5, Stop Loss Rs16.4, tgt1Rs15, tgt2 Rs14
JPASSOCIAT ( Jaiprakash Associates Ltd )
Buy above Rs 58, stop Loss Rs57.5, tgt1 Rs59, and tgt2 Rs62
Sell below Rs55.5, Stop Loss Rs57.8, tgt1Rs54.5, tgt2 Rs53
DABUR ( Dabur India Ltd )
Buy above Rs 85.5, stop Loss Rs84, tgt1 Rs86.8, and tgt2 Rs88.8
Sell below Rs83.3, Stop Loss Rs84.3, tgt1Rs82.3, tgt2 Rs80
Sell RELIANCE below 1090, Target: 1065, 1040 SL: 1095
Sell SBIN below 1040, Target: 1028, 1015 SL: 1044
Sell HDFCBANK below 870, Target: 850,825 SL: 875
Sell LT below 690, Target: 680,665 SL: 694
Sell DLF below 174, Target: 165, 160 SL: 177.5
Sell NIFTY2800CE below 90, Target: 70, 50 SL: 94
Ofcourse not - the culprits are the Firangis - LOL. Nothing can really work with this kind of Global cues. No chance of recovery when DOW falls 700 odd points - no do not get me wrong - ofcourse the US does not open while we trade but the cues start pouring in with the Europe trading and the US futures giving the direction of opening. When the global markets enjoyed the upswing we had our own problems - now when we thought that our recovery will start for the stocks to catch up the lost ground the Global cues have turned the tables once again and they are weak like hell once again. The markets are also being manipulated to suite a certain number of operators. The FIIs and DIs were net buyers but the quantity was very low - this kept the volume extremely low and perhaps this was the reason that the markets - on otherwise good wicket - turned around to close negative like hell. There are not too many players in the markets now a days. Okay all the blame is not on global cues only - the sales figures from the auto stocks helped bears as the figures were bad. And do not worry we are not the only one in this situation - Bank of Japan too has called for a meeting today(02Dec) kick start the economy. The official line from US is that the country has been in recession from Dec 07.
Asia yesterday was mixed - Nikkei down 1.35%, Hang Seng up 1.59% and Strait Times down 2.44%. Europe opened flat with little negative bias and then dropped never to look up again. FTSE was down - closing 5.19% down, DAX down 5.88% and CAC down 5.59%. US did it again by dropping down 680 points - clocking fourth worst drop ever and closed well in red at the lowest levels for the day. DOw was down 7.70%, Nasdaq was down 8.95% and S&P down 8.93%. Yahoo finance says - I quote "....wall street snapped out of its daydream of a rally and once again faced the harsh reality of recession..."
We came close to the crossing over to the top half of the Bollinger bands. The red 5 EMA line was threatening to cross the 20 EMA line but alas the black candle had to step in. The Bollinger bands are about the same width as before. The volumes as mentioned earlier - are less. MACD positive divergence remains so inspite of the black candle the mood may remain good for some time. RSI looked down because of yesterday - but good so far. Slow stochastic is one indicator that has turned sides. the red line has crossed over below the blue line before reaching the overbought zone. TRIX continues to look up - so even being on the loosing side I remain positive for third consecutive day.
Pivot data…
R3 2995 against 2868 last
R2 2890
R1 2786
Pivot 2727 against 2741 Last
S1 2623
S2 2564
S3 2460 against 2614 Last
Projected High Range 2757 to 2838
Projected Low Range 2825 to 2744
Fib Projected High 2876
Fib Projected Low 2624
A weak opening is certain considering the global cues but should watch out for the recovery towards the afternoon. Crude at 50$ a barrel. What the heck 1/3rd from its high and OPEC now wants to convene a meating and see how the prices can be kept stable at higher levels - LOL
Sensex Technical View :
The daily moves on Sensex have become very tricky and boring without any clear direction seen. As being mentioned in the last few sessions is to wait for a clear move beyond 8300 or 9300 -9500 for further trades.
Strategy :
For traders its simple to take fresh aggressive positions only on a cross beyond 8300 or 9300-9500 . Till then the trades should be extreme short term or intra day.
Investors should wait for more clarity in coming months and the sluggishness would continue for next 3-5 months which will give excellent opportunities provided one is patient. Continue to look for selective opportunities and be ready with cash but deployment shud be slow and restructuring on every rise.
Stocks to watchout for :
LnT 680-700 , SBI 1025-1000 are crucial levels which would decide the next move on indices and are strict stops for investors who have bought now.
BPCL seems to have a move over done and shud see resistance near earlier top of 385.
LIC housing looks weak if sustains below 160 levels can test 130-145 also. Maruti below 465 would be a new 52 wk low and breakdown.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
The next 3-4 months would be a real test for investors/traders and would be the survival of fittest. As volatility would be very high for traders to cope with. Lot many stocks would remain much below fair value and in cases mkt cap could get below liquid cash assets of the . The choices would be many and one will need to be very selective. So be prepared !.
The daily moves on Sensex have become very tricky and boring without any clear direction seen. As being mentioned in the last few sessions is to wait for a clear move beyond 8300 or 9300 -9500 for further trades.
Strategy :
For traders its simple to take fresh aggressive positions only on a cross beyond 8300 or 9300-9500 . Till then the trades should be extreme short term or intra day.
Investors should wait for more clarity in coming months and the sluggishness would continue for next 3-5 months which will give excellent opportunities provided one is patient. Continue to look for selective opportunities and be ready with cash but deployment shud be slow and restructuring on every rise.
Stocks to watchout for :
LnT 680-700 , SBI 1025-1000 are crucial levels which would decide the next move on indices and are strict stops for investors who have bought now.
BPCL seems to have a move over done and shud see resistance near earlier top of 385.
LIC housing looks weak if sustains below 160 levels can test 130-145 also. Maruti below 465 would be a new 52 wk low and breakdown.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
The next 3-4 months would be a real test for investors/traders and would be the survival of fittest. As volatility would be very high for traders to cope with. Lot many stocks would remain much below fair value and in cases mkt cap could get below liquid cash assets of the . The choices would be many and one will need to be very selective. So be prepared !.
1) World Economic Environment
2) Political Situation of Country
3) Micro & Macro Economic situation (i.e. Inflation, Interest Rate, IIP Numbers)
4) Financial Situation of the Company & Ambitions of Promoters
If you are investor and not a trader than before investing you should analyze whether all this factors are normal or not. If one of them is abnormal than you should not invest a single rupee in the market as one bad factor (Mainly First 3) will poise the whole market easily.
So as per our estimate the first three factors will be normal by March-April 2009. So at that time we should invest in the following stock:
- All the Stock of A group will go up if market goes up but some of the A group stock will rock if some Government Alliance will win.
- If BJP will win than Adani Enterprise, Mundra port, Suzlon, ESSAR Oil an BHEL are the best stocks to invest.
- If UPA will win than banking stock like ICICI, HDFC, Lanco Infra and Specially All stock of ADAG group will rock.
- If Third Alliance will come (Mayawati) than JP Associates will rock can go up to that level that no one can imagine. Put a large amount in this stock if this happens.
- Where RIL, SBI & All stock of TATA group is a neutral stock under any condition.
- Some interesting stock in which promoters have increased their stack: - L&T and Gujarat NRE Coke. You can do trading in this stock at every decline till March as down side risk is much lower in these stocks whatever the conditions may be.
2) Political Situation of Country
3) Micro & Macro Economic situation (i.e. Inflation, Interest Rate, IIP Numbers)
4) Financial Situation of the Company & Ambitions of Promoters
If you are investor and not a trader than before investing you should analyze whether all this factors are normal or not. If one of them is abnormal than you should not invest a single rupee in the market as one bad factor (Mainly First 3) will poise the whole market easily.
So as per our estimate the first three factors will be normal by March-April 2009. So at that time we should invest in the following stock:
- All the Stock of A group will go up if market goes up but some of the A group stock will rock if some Government Alliance will win.
- If BJP will win than Adani Enterprise, Mundra port, Suzlon, ESSAR Oil an BHEL are the best stocks to invest.
- If UPA will win than banking stock like ICICI, HDFC, Lanco Infra and Specially All stock of ADAG group will rock.
- If Third Alliance will come (Mayawati) than JP Associates will rock can go up to that level that no one can imagine. Put a large amount in this stock if this happens.
- Where RIL, SBI & All stock of TATA group is a neutral stock under any condition.
- Some interesting stock in which promoters have increased their stack: - L&T and Gujarat NRE Coke. You can do trading in this stock at every decline till March as down side risk is much lower in these stocks whatever the conditions may be.
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