Foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 2048.70 crore in December till 11.
On December 12, FIIs net sell in cash markets stood at Rs 16.5 crore (prov), DIIs net buy in cash markets stood at Rs 326 crore (prov) and FIIs net sell in F&O stood at Rs 905 crore. FIIs net sell in Nifty futures was Rs 665 crore and OI was up by 42059 contracts. FIIs bought Rs 2667 crore in Index futures in previous 3 days. Net buy in Nifty options were Rs 20 crore and OI was up by 15812 contracts while net sell in Stock Futureswere Rs 230 crore and OI was up by 33408 contracts.
The Union Commerce and Industry Minister, Kamal Nath, recently hinted at the government is working on another batch of stimulus measures to bolster the economy and boost sentiments among firms and markets. However there are some negative view about these packages too. The rescue effort is an equivalent of giving aspirin to a patient suffering from malaria. This may reduce the patient’s temperature and make him feel better than otherwise. But it will not end the fever, which will have to run its course. So, expect economic distress to continue for at least six months, maybe longer.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 8% in the year through 29 November 2008, lower than previous week's annual rise of 8.4%, data released by the government on 11 December 2008,.
Global investment banks Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs, which had earlier this year forecast Oil prices to surge USD 200 Level, now foresee it slipping to USD 25-30 level, while Indian analysts anticipate a strong resistance at 40 dollars. Goldman Sachs' commodity research team in its latest research note has predicted that the oil price might slip to 30 dollars per barrel level in the next three months.
ASTROLOGICAL VIEW
As per our astrology view we says Indian economy will largely outperform to other economy and will give surprise to everyone. While time series says we will have correction from 23rd December onward.
As per fibonacci time series we have cross 13 days and reversal has not come now we will have reversal after 21 days means 23 December we will have reversal- till date we see rising as per our astrology there is big up move between 15 to 23 and levels has been given to our members.
One thing we have notice is that in the last two days around 15lakh nifty fu has been rollover with premium in to the January month it self indicated bullish undertone. Though market is surprising both bulls and bears once trader take any positions on the second day market take cues from foreign and open against your trade and your stop loss get triggered and at the end of the day it comes to your levels.
If nifty close above 3000 with volume and expansion of open intrest it will move to 3200 levels!!!!!!!!
NIFTY FUT
Nifty fut is forming ascending triangle and once close above 3000 will confirm the triangle of 354 points and our target will be 3200 odd levels.
On the down side 2850 is good support for bulls and will try to come back again to higher level 2747 and 2700 is solid support for the market.
While on the up side this is full of resistance like 3048-3153-3200-3298-3400.
Once close above 3200 will make two levels resistance invalidation like 3048 and 3153.
Once close above 3200 with volume it will make one other level to invalidation that is 3298.
Simple Moving Averages -
| 5 D | 8 D | 13 D | 20 D | 39 D | 50 D | 200 D |
| 2854 | 2796 | 2763 | 2747 | 2859 | 3041 | 4211 |
Observations :
-->NIFTY FUT Total OI up 27.54%, NIFTY FUT up 7.77%, last week.
-->Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 40 Stock FUTS closed positive, 8 Stock FUTS closed negative and 2 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
-->OI of NIFTY 2800 CE is down 5.78% with rising prices showing profit booking.OI of NIFTY 2900 CE is up 45.34%, 3000 CE is up 56.18% with rising prices showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 3200 CE is down 25.87% with rising prices showing short covering.
-->OI of NIFTY 2700 PE is up 80.04%, 2800 PE is up 325.89% with falling prices showing put writing.
Conclusion :
-->Last week trades showing short sellers Trapped. Any up move will attract heavy short covering.
-->NIFTY SPOT will face Resistance at 2990-3000, 3020-3030 levels. Strong Resistance at 3080-90 levels. I expect profit booking here. On down side Support at 2840-50, 2790-2800 levels, major Support at 2730-40 levels.
Trend : Bullish
-->NIFTY FUT OI up 27.54%, NIFTY FUT up 7.77%, last week.
-->OI of NIFTY 2800 CE is down 5.78%, with rising prices showing profit booking.
-->OI of NIFTY 2900 CE is up 45.34%, 3000 CE is up 56.18% with rising prices showing call buying.
-->OI of NIFTY 2700 PE is up 80.04%, 2800 PE is up 325.89% with falling prices showing put writing.
-->NIFTY FUT showing long position build up last week. NIFTY SPOT Resistance at 2990-3000, 3020-3030 levels, strong Resistance at 3080-90 levels.
-->On downside Support at 2840-50, 2790-2800 levels. We expect up move next week.Short covering also expected.
MIDCAP STOCK FUTS
Trend : Bullish
-->From last 2 weeks, MIDCAP STOCKS showing positive move.
-->AKRUTI FUT OI up 156%, DCHL FUT OI up 106%,EDELWEISS FUT OI up 40%, INDIAINFO FUT OI up 49% and PANTLOONR FUT OI up 36% with rising prices last week.
These STOCK FUTS showing long position buildup.
We expect positive move in coming week.
STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Buy ASHOK LEYLAND Above 13,Sl 12,Tgt 14-15-16 (2-3days)
Buy LML Above 7.15 sl 6.60 tgt 7.80-8.20
Buy SPICEJET only Above 15 sl 13.60 tgt 16.80-19
Buy HANUNGTOYS Above 61 sl 57 tgt 68-74
POWER FIN CORP LTD(C-127.15): Weekly Chart Looking Strong:
Buy around 123,Tgt 134++,Support 116/106
RELIANCE INFRA LTD(C-650.4 ):Weekly Chart Looking Strong:
Buy around 620,Tgt 694++,Support 577/504
ESSAR OIL
Chart of the scrip is giving short term up ward reversal and 20-30% rise in single session not ruled out.
BANK OF INDIA
This bank stock always outperform the broader market. Currently facing resistance @ 278. This scrip is forming 40 points triangle and one can Buy with StopLoss of 253 & Target will be 288-293 and in good market 306.
RELIANCE CAPITAL (531)
One can consider 485-StopLoss (Positionally:460) & Closing Above 545 will take to 595 levels (Positionally:770)
SINTEX
Consider 183 as Support and 162 as StopLoss & take Delivery with Tgt of 198-213-225.
MRPL
This counter is catching fancy with CRUDE rising consider 34 StopLoss & Target of 49-54
PETRONET LNG
Again this scrip is catching fancy with volume and one can consider 32-StopLoss on Closing Basis & Target will be 37-38-41
OPTO CIRCUTS
This counter is catching fancy without any news and interestingly with volume one can consider 76-StopLoss & Target will be 87-91-97.
RENUKA SUGAR
Consider 62 as StopLoss on Closing Basis & Tgt will be 70-72
LARSEN & TOUBRO
One can Buy Future Above 795 with StopLoss of 765 & Tgt of 845
DELIVERY BUY RAYMONDS
ABG SHIPYARD 108/119, EASUN RAYROLE TGT 50 ,
Positional BUY RELINFRA FUT,Sl 580,Tgt 667/736,
HIGH RISK TRADER SHOLD INCIATE FRESH LONG POSITIONS.IN NIFTY FUT.
Sell CIPLA Dec Fut Positionally ,Tgt 165/145
INFOSYS :
Sell Dec Fut On Every Rise with a Stop Loss of 1120 on Closing Basis.
If Trades Below 1100 then Stock will Crash Upto 1040 and 940 in Hrs Only.
ONGC : Sell Dec Fut & Hold
BEL
High Risk Trader can Short Future Below 688 & place StopLoss of 705 & Target will be 674-649
DR REDDY
High Risk Trader can Short Future Below 442 with StopLoss of 455 & Target will be 429-411
Weekly Trend (15-12-2008 to 19-12-2008) Volatile and Mix
2530/2630/2860/2890 [NIFTY : 2921] 2955/2995/3010/3060/3100/3135
8695/8850/9250/9590/9500 [SENSEX:9690]9895/9925/10075/10160/10245
2690/2805/2880 [NIFTY FUT : 2921] 3000/3070
4300/4475/4585 [BANK NIFTY : 4658] 4770/4875
INTRADAY : 15-12-2008
NSE Index (C-2921.35)
Resistance : 2970-85/3015/3045/3090
Support : 2860/2840/2810/2765
BSE Sensex (C-9690.07)
Resistance : 9745-90/9865/10040/10400/10675
Support : 9535-70/9400/9215/9395/9150/9050/9010
Nifty Future (C-2921.70)
Resistance : 2975/3030/3065
Support : 2885/2835/2750
Bank Future (C-4658.15)
Resistance : 4765/4875
Support : 4585/4480/4300
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 0.97% with 13% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions at lower levels.
NIFTY SPOT sustain above 2940 levels will attract short covering.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with volatility.
On Monday Opening is Flat To Up
If Nifty Future trade above the level of 2905-2910 then it can go up to the level of 2960-2985-3020-3040-3075-3105(Sl Below 2890),
but if Nifty Future go to break the level of 2890 & after 2865 then it can go below the level of 2840-2805-2765-2735-2655(Sl Above 2910).
SELL BANK NIFTY BELOW 4695,Tgt 4625/4575/4525/4475
TELCO (154) :Position trader Buy between 150-145,Sl 140 for 3/5 days Tgt 175+
RIL (1306) : Buy @ 1270-75 with Sl 1230 Tgt 1345-1355
Tpower (750.8) : Buy @ 737 with SL 722 T 750 + 761 +768
Buy DLF(Tgt 295/300,Support 250)
Buy BHARTI(Tgt 845,Support 705)
Buy HDFCBANK(Tgt 1045,Support 855)
GVKPIL : Buy Above 21,Stoploss 20 ,Tgt 23-24
IOB : Buy Above 70,Sl 68,Tgt 75 & more.
RELINFRA(650.4)
BUY ABOVE 658,TGT 667/674,SL 652
SELL BELOW 643,TGT 635/623,SL 650
Buy RELIANCE CAPITAL Above 520,Sl NIFTY Below 2655,Tgt 550/570/585/600/615
OR BUY RELCAP NEAR 475-485,Sl 460,Tgt 625
Buy HINDALCO@52-53,Tgt 54.5++,Ifci 20-21,Tgt 22/23++
TATA POWER (752) Buy with Stoploss Below 740,Ttgt-774-781
Buy BAJAJ AUTO Above @ 395,Tgt 425-465-545,SL-380
Buy BHEL Above @ 1365,Tgt 1400-1435-1520,SL-1350
Buy BPCL Above @ 345,Tgt 360-380-422,SL-335
Buy ICICIBANK Above 418
Stock to watch SBI, AXIS BANKSell CMC Below @ 325,Tgt 320-310-295,SL-330
Sell ONGC Below @ 645,Tgt 635-615-580,SL-650
Sell BHARATFORG Below @ 79,Tgt 77-75-68,SL-81
Sell VSNL Below 490 Sl 495,Tgt 475/465/460
SELL HEROHONDA Below 790 TGT 780 770 760
CENTURYTEX : CMP DEC FUTURE 175
For today trading consider 172,166 levels as supports. On upper side above 177 can go up to 184,191,196,203 levels. Technically view bullish for today trading.
Buy GE SHIP DecFut@195-197,Sl 190,Tgt 198/199/201/204/207-208/213-215 (Lot:600)
Buy ESSAROIL DecFut @ 86-87,Sl 84,Tgt 87.7/88/89/92-93/96-97 (Lot Size :1412)
Sell EDUCOMP DecFut @ 2070-2075,
Sl 2135,Tgt 2050/2040/2020/2000-2010/1980/1960/1940 (Lot:75)
MCX : Weekly
CRUDE OIL
Support : 42.87/2269 /// 41.05/2202 /// 38.33/2102
PP:45.75/2374
Resistance : 48.62/2480 /// 50.44/2547 /// 53.16/2647
SILVER
Support : 9.69/16664 /// 9.44/16441 /// 9.06/ 16106
PP:10.10/17018
Resistance : 10.50/17371 /// 10.75/17594 /// 11.13/17929
GOLD
Support : 773.25/12315 /// 753.75/12123 /// 724.5 0/11834
PP:804.10/12620
Resistance : 835.95/12925 /// 854.45/13117 /// 883.65/13406
Review
Nifty has given breakout (2860) for 3 successive days, even ignoring all the bad news and global market sluggish on Friday indicating near term bear market rally. Not only Nifty but major stocks like Reliance, DLF, SBI, ICICI Bank, Rel. cap and other major sector like Reality, steel, cement, Media, Infra etc are giving breakout – Most of the Nifty futures stocks are showing near term bullishness.
Outlook
Since Index has given breakout along with major sector and stocks, expect the market to continue its move towards 3100 – 3240 where it could find crucial resistance around these levels. On the down side 2860 is crucial support on closing basis and it should act as stop loss for all the longs.
Support and Resistance for this week.
Support 2865 -2800-2758
Resistance 3034-3034-3133-3177-3240
Strategy for the week
Nifty
Every down should be bought into with the stop loss of 2860 on closing basis and on crossover of each resistance -TSL (Trending stop loss) should be applied to protect the profit or profit should be hedged with options– since its bear market rally – thing could get worse in one night and eat into all profits. One can book profit around 3176 -3240 and wait for the next signal. Selling out of money call and put like 3200 ce and 2800 pe would be yield profits till expiry.
Scrip’s to buy
Reliance (1307) with stop loss of 1175 for target of 1500
Tata Steel (218) with stop loss of 186 for tar 244 -274
Rcom (249) with stop loss of 210 for tar 264 – 292
ICICI (411) with stop loss of 387 for tar 447
Nifty can do 3050 this week,but shld come down in 2 days or so.
| Co_Name | Offer Open | Offer Close | Buy Back Price | Buy Back Amount | CMP Rs |
| Abbott India | 08/18/2008 | 09/02/2008 | 630 | 50.24 | 368.1 |
| Alembic | 12/08/2008 | 11/13/2009 | 55 | 33.00 | 29.75 |
| Amrutanjan Healt | 12/03/2008 | 11/18/2009 | 450 | 6.36 | 358.15 |
| ANG Auto | 07/28/2008 | 01/02/2009 | 215 | 161.25 | 33.05 |
| DLF | 10/17/2008 | 07/09/2009 | 600 | 1100.00 | 191.9 |
| EID Parry | 12/15/2008 | 10/28/2009 | 160 | 46.84 | 132.8 |
| FDC | 11/24/2008 | 08/11/2009 | 40 | 35.86 | 27.2 |
| Gateway Distpark | 08/11/2008 | 01/24/2009 | 110 | 64.00 | 69.65 |
| Godrej Consumer | 12/04/2008 | 11/24/2009 | 150 | 14.90 | 121 |
| Goldiam Intl. | 05/07/2008 | 12/31/2008 | 85 | 9.37 | 15.03 |
| Great Offshore | 05/07/2008 | 03/30/2009 | 750 | 55.24 | 235.5 |
| Guj Flourochem | 08/21/2008 | 03/20/2009 | 300 | 61.43 | 57.05 |
| HEG | 10/13/2008 | 08/18/2009 | 350 | 48.50 | 111.9 |
| Ipca Labs. | 12/03/2008 | 11/10/2009 | 600 | 60.00 | 332.55 |
| Jindal Poly Film | 12/10/2008 | 08/28/2009 | 350 | 150.00 | 133.5 |
| Maestros Medi. | 11/18/2008 | 10/26/2009 | 75 | 3.26 | 40.05 |
| Mastek | 05/20/2008 | 11/26/2008 | 750 | 65.00 | 154.2 |
| Monnet Ispat | 12/08/2008 | 10/22/2009 | 300 | 7.50 | 127.05 |
| Patni Computer | 07/10/2008 | 02/06/2009 | 325 | 237.00 | 131.75 |
| R Systems Inter. | 10/29/2008 | 09/06/2009 | 150 | 8.00 | 48 |
| Rain Commodities | 09/25/2008 | 04/30/2009 | 307 | 26.00 | 86.6 |
| Sasken Comm.Tech | 09/15/2008 | 11/03/2008 | 260 | 40.00 | 51.15 |
| SRF | 07/02/2008 | 04/24/2009 | 160 | 70.00 | 68.25 |
| Supreme Inds. | 12/08/2008 | 11/25/2009 | 125 | 24.57 | 103.85 |
| Surana Telecom | 09/30/2008 | 04/20/2009 | 50 | 6.00 | 19.35 |
| Valiant Commun. | 10/07/2008 | 09/07/2009 | 32 | 3.14 | 21.1 |
It was up 20% very recently so this is about 8% drawdown. (Drawdowns are peak to lowest point after that).
Not worried, I still think these stocks have some serious issues. The markets may go up to 3200 meanwhile; and the next wave of selling is likely to hurt even more so a short strategy should do good.
I'm looking closely now at the diversified players, IT and anyone that still has a reasonably high P/E. I have wanted to short Naukri for a while but there is no liquidity in the future; no point doing something that can't be replicated in real life.
ASTROLOGICAL VIEW-as per our astrology view we says Indian economy will largely outperform to other economy and will give surprise to everyone. While time series says we will have correction from 23rd December onward.
STOCK PICK OF THE WEEK –
1-ESSAR OIL-chart of the scrip is giving short term up ward reversal and 20-30% rise in single session not ruled out. Levels will be given to our HOTCALL paid members on Monday morning.
2-BANK OF INDIA-this bank stock always outperform the broader market. Currently facing resistance at 278. This scrip is forming 40 points triangle and one can buy with stop loss of 253 and target will be 288-293 and in good market 306.
3-RELIANCE CAPITAL-once can consider 485-stop loss and closing above 545 will take to 592 levels.
4-SINTEX-consider 183 as support and 162 as stop loss and take delivery with target of 198-213-225.
5-MRPL-this counter is catching fancy with crude rising consider 34 stop loss and target of 49-54.
6-PETRONET LNG-again this scrip is catching fancy with volume and one can consider 32-stop loss on closing basis and target will be 37-38-41.
7-OPTO CIRCUTS-this counter is catching fancy without any news and interestingly with volume one can consider 76-stop loss and target will be 87-91-97.
8-RENUKA SUGAR-consider 62 as stop loss on closing basis and target will be 70-72.
9-BEL-high risk trader can short future below 688 and place stop loss of 705 and target will be 674-649.
10-DR REDDY-high risk trader can short future below 442 with stop loss of 455 and target will be 429-411.
11-LARSON AND TUBRO-once can buy future above 795 with stop loss of 765 and target will be 845
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