NEWSLETTER

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on positive note but drift in the red zone and traded in lackluster and narrow range between 2600-2670 zone throughout the session and close in red zone .For coming session if nifty trade above 2695 it can test 2754 zone on the lower side 2570 will act support zone below it 2500 levels main support . Market are trading in sideway one can wait for breakout on upside or other side .

BUY State Bank of India Stop Loss 1030 Target 1242

BUY Jaiprakash Associates Stop Loss 56 Target 78

BUY Punj Lloyd Stop Loss 130 Target 184

BUY GVK Power & Infrastructure Stop Loss 15 Target 21

There is a lot of activity..volume based going on in the individual stocks..

Metal stocks have attracted high volume & they are up..

However, Nifty is stuck in a range that is getting narrower by the day..

Bull: A move past 2670 and a close above 2680, 1st step.,break past 2750-next step

Bear: A break below 2630, further breaking 2600.,2570.,2500...2450..??










kindly hold the short ,,nifty may go up up to 2740 spot on 4th december ,, there u can again take fresh short or average short near 2740 spot level...........for tgt 2550-2510 spot as said earlier......thx...

Buy Niftyfutures above 2680, Target: 2710, 2725 SL: 2665

Sell Niftyfutures below 2730, Target: 2710, 2680 SL: 2745

Buy Nifty2800CE above 105, Target: 115,130 SL: 100

Sell Nifty2800CE below 90, Target: 85, 78 SL: 95

Sell Nifty2700PE below 166, Target: 150,135 SL: 175

S S Cheema

If it breaks upwards then I will celebrate because I was right all this while – if it goes down then atleast I will know that I was wrong. Now waiting for something to happen has become the worst thing in my life now-a-days. Even US feels so – they are so sick of the bad news and the worthless data that is pouring in that they sometimes disregard it and set it aside to show some movement. What are we waiting for? GOD only knows. Perhaps the smartest thing possible is being done by the idiot box – they give a high target one day and a low target the other – now they have done is for so many days at a stretch that any good move – whether positive or negative they can claim it as a trophy - ‘I said so…’. Okay now – the economic data that has come out in US is bad as expected. As the data poured in about the state of the US economy the US investors shook their head in disbelief – after it was all done – the markets took a swing to higher levels as investors and analysts say that most of the bad news ahs already been priced into the markets shown by the huge declines in the past two months. There was also a news doing round in the markets that the hedge funds have stopped selling as aggressively as they were doing in the past. The news included – drop in productivity, a pullback in services and the Federal Reserve’s finding of a worsening economic conditions across the country. Two thoughts worth taking note of - the US positive streak for past nine days with the exception of Monday –Firstly, some say that the present upswing is in no way fundamental and that it is just wishful thinking. The second thought is that though the turbulence will continue – the worst is over. Take your pick for whatever it is worth.

Well to the global cues not. Asia opened positive (unlike us – wonder what is wrong with us) and remained basically positive ending – Nikkei 1.79% up,Hang Seng up 1.36% up and Strait Times flat 0.08% up. Europe was negative the entire day and then by the end showed a good recovery inspite of US futures giving negative cues. FTSE was up 1.14%, Dax up 0.78% and CAC 0.44% up. The US was well into the red territory to start the day with. then with effort it moved up in green territory. As the economic data flowed in the markets plunged down – then with a few sprinkles of good news the markets bounced back in positive territory once again to end the day in green – up almost 2% +. Dow was up 2.05%, Nasdaq up 2.94% and S&P up 2.58%.

On the candles – there is just nothing that is new. The candle was almost a perfect Doji. the Bollinger bands are there where they were yesterday, the day before, the day to day before…. sorry just get carried away. The 5 EMA line is still below the 20 EMA line. Volumes a bit better than yesterday. MACD still shows a positive divergence. RSI is good and bullish. Slow Stochastic looking down with the red line still below the blue line. TRIX is still good and green looking up.

Pivot data…
R3 2775 against 2774 yesterday
R2 2735
R1 2695
Pivot 2653 against 2633 yesterday
S1 2613
S2 2571
S3 2531 against 2492 yesterday
Projected High Range 2674 to 2715
Projected Low Range 2670 to 2629
Fib Projected High 2715
Fib Projected Low 2588

Best of luck for trading today.

Nifty EOD chart says, i am highly confused and dunno where to go :-D.

nifty is on a downtrend, but i am surprised to see how it is reluctant to fall.

every dip is being bought into, and shorts are not at all comfortable.

now in terms of levels, till nifty is below 2755, it will be on a downtrend, and if closes above 2755, may quickly go to 29xx, where it will give a good shorting oppurtunity :-).

for intraday today, below 2655, nifty is weak and may see 2552 levels, however if crosses 2655, may blast to 2680-2697 levels.

a closing below 2655 will be considered as weak.

i personally feel, nifty may give a sudden upmove before it resumes its downtrend again.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :
Technically there is no trend in short term with none of the moves being confirmed the next day or a breakout. Overall the downward trend remains and would continue to do so till we dont start making higher tops and higher bottoms. I have been bored writing the same thing for last few sessions --- Wait for a clear move above 9300-9500 or below 8300-8500.

As i have discussed that after 7700 low a counter phase could last 20-40 or more sessions or roughly 4-8 weeks.

We are already through 25 odd sessions. So clearly put in the next 2 - 3 weeks Sensex needs to give out a clear move out of the small range of 8300-9300. Also technically there is a possibility of an extended bear rally if we start staying above 9300 zones. Still there is no clarity but there should be a close watch from here on as if we dont breakout above 9300 then the risk below 8300 opens up too!.

Sensex is a composition of a group of stocks. The heavies like RIL , SBI , LT , ONGC ,ICICI Bank , Infosys are some main constituents. Many of the stocks are very very close to Oct lows.
Still there is no signs of a bounce back or fall in any of the above stocks !! quite a lot of them are weakening technically and if they start sustaining below the lows they can crumble too is a concern. A very strong bounce is needed to improve the structure ! ..
Some of the stocks and crucial levels which would decide the next course are mentioned roughly in the next para. Make a note of the same for trading decisions.

SBI is testing 1000 levels a lot. It needs to move out above 1150-1200 zone as quickly as possible coz a break below 980 leads to supports way deep at 850-700.
RIL testing 1020-1050 zone. Needs to move above 1180-1200 quickly and make a move to 1400. on the downside 930 recent low is imp and next 800-850.
LT is stayin very near to oct low of 680. Next support is 600-620 on channel below that 500-450. Needs a sharp move above 780 to 900.
ICICI very close to 280-300 lower support zone. Needs a strong move above 350-360 towards 450.
Infosys 1100 is a crucial level for now. 1250 on upside needs to be broken to move to 1450 zones. Below 1100 the next zone is 950.
ONGC 615 is a level to watch on support and 700-720 on upside to be broken and go to 800. Below 615 next level is oct low of 540.

In simple terms all the heavies or at least some of the heavies need to lead a bounce back and break recent resistances as soon as possible over next 2-3 weeks otherwise the technical structure would keep weakening and a breakdown could lead to a quicker fall.

Also there are still no clear signals on a breakout on either side so its a CLoSE WATCH in next few weeks. But once the levels break on either side the move can be strong and one should follow the trend with a trailing stop and not try to go towards a contra-strategy as move could be very sharp !!

Difficult to guess a reason for any side move and maybe we could again remain in a range for long time but out here we are just looking into the possible technicalities for the markets. Hope things would clear of sooner.



Stocks to watchout for :

Have listed quite a lot of stocks above and some charts in yesterdays posts. Would decline from giving any stock specific view as none of them might click well as moves are intra-day or some sessions. Also the major way of my stock and trade picking is on a clean trend and in ranged markets i do tend to go wrong tooo so have been stating to trade with lower volumes only if one really needs to trade.

The last few sessions have been very boring and frustrating as there is no clear move with stops being hit on either sides or very small targets made. Sometimes its better to do nothing in such a situation as the hit ratio of trades may not be good and returns may be negligible also unless you are very quick which many of us are not.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

In the past few months many a time i had discussed on a bottoming out scenario to come around the 8 -9 mth frm Jan ( fibo calculation ) and a cash generation exit around 16k . Although the expectation of Sept/Oct being went right , the index level went terribly wrong and was expecting a bounce from 11k. Fortunately we could get out of it through some other stock bouncebacks frm 8k -10.5k and getting exit in some strong stocks picked but yes some picks have been disasters too.

So what next ... In previous posts i have repeated next 3-4 months would be a real test for investors/traders. As per fibo 13 month comes around Feb. Even if a long term bottom is in place time wise pressure remains till Feb. Also if its not the bottom then a testing or break could happen in Dec-Feb period. The market scenario is uncertain and one of a kind as per statistics.

Ideally the best time to invest would be in Feb-March and stability or turnaround could start March-May . This has been the preferred guess from my side since a long time although levels went wrong in Oct maybe again we may or may not be exactly correct in next few months. But yes i do feel there would be ample opportunities in these 3-4 months as a sharp bear rally could also be there and gr8 investment/trading gains on cracks too.

So if one is a a very defensive investor and low risk apetite then can go SIP mode very very slowly in this period or rather have a fresh look around Feb-March whether index is at 7-8k or 12k comfort could be back around Feb-March and more confidence by May.

This is just a personal guess or view which may not coincide with technical data as difficult to time technically. So investors do their own research .

But yes i do believe even if one has seen lot of notional losses and pure losses one can recoup a lot and make up for earlier mistakes .
One needs to be disciplined ( conserve capital , be prudent , no leverage , high cash, be alert and react to opportunities ) in this uncertain period of say roughly 3-5 months. No euphoria or capitulation is permanent !!!!!!

There is a sort of a squeeze on Ranbaxy. People seem to have lost all interest in this stock and looks like it's a tough life ahead for this one. Volumes are way below the 50 day average volume which is around 2.7 million. Bandwidth has dropped to 0.14 and the previous low was 0.07 in September just before the stock crashed from 500~ to 160 in October. We will keep an eye on this one and see how far this squeeze lasts.

State Bank looks good for intraday long trade today. Buy around 1075-85, and exit around 1125.

Nothing much to add today as the closing is as good as yesterday's.