These are the Nifty futures charts. The first chart is the Daily chart. We can see that there was a rising wedge from where there was a breakdown. The target which we get from this is 2500 and below.
The second chart is the hourly chart. Here we see a rising channel. Any rise near 2738, 2781 will see good amount of selling pressure . So, trade accordingly and follow the trend!!
| Alert Name: India, Bearish Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 50.00 and below the 200-day moving average; Volume at least 10,000; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Pattern Duration at least 25 days; Possible Price Move of at least 10%. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events; Pattern Duration at least 25 days. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Indian market opened on flat note but saw smart buying across the board and close with hand some gains. After lower IIP number 8.40% for the week ended 22nd November 2008 market broken the narrow range and close near days high .For coming session if nifty able to cross 2436-2850 main hurdle it can test 2950 -3070 zone .On the lower side 2730 is support for day and main support 2633 zone .
There was buying in other stocks with good volumes..
We are nearing the resistance area of 2835 to 2860..
Last week close 2755...support now..This week high, Low sofar is 2833...2570..
And we are trading near the high of the week. If we manage to close near the highs, that will give a strength to the weekly technicals..
As Nifty has not surpassed the recent high of 2835, there is chance of a sharp fall if any bad news should come in.Action in individual stocks are happening with volume.
Markets can do as it did after touching 3160...Just fell to 2503 non stop..One more day of confident trading is required for this uptrend to gain momentum..
those who are holding short , can hold their short position with 2831 spot as stop loss........no doubt market is still in bear phase ..........todays upside false rally is nothing but the part of the distribution disply on false upper side..........investors still advice to hold the shorts with 2831 spot as stoploss......... to get the tgt 2550-2510 spot soon.........have a pations ........all the best...............thx......
The Bulls settled scores with Bears to cover their positions in the Banking giant SBI. The RIL has shown its strength lately but firmly. The infrastructure stocks sky rocketed as if there was a Bull run going. The net result is a gain of more than 132 points on Nifty.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
Finally a strong close on Sensex and a sharp move after a few boring sessions. Technically Sensex seems to be very close to the flag/channel/triangle breakout ( diff patterns ) . The near most resistance level is 9300-9500. Sustained closing above those levels gives a move to 9900/10400/10900 in short term.
In the last two days it was discussed in depth with index constituents that a strong bounce was needed desperately and should be sharp. We have got the first initial bounce back in many stocks with SBI crossing 1120 , RIL coming close to 1180 , LT coming close to 780 , ICICI crossing 360. The next surge needed would be sustained close for 2-3 sessions above this level to set in a strong bounce back. Continue to trade on long side with trailing stops in the above stocks.
Many charts with levels have been posted in last 2 days which could be good guides for traders. Also as discussed the counter trend or bear rally could get stronger so it would be better to trail and not go contra.
Stocks to watchout for :
The charts for some stocks have been posted in the post below this . Apart from that
IDEA if closes or stays above 49 can tgt 55-60.
Real estate stocks are seeing speculative built up on base of possible stimulus. Patel Engg , Nag const , Ivrcl infra seem to be good for short term if one wants to speculate. Not a recommendation from my side as i have been on an avoid on this sector since last 4-5 months and has immensely helped not being invested in them.
After being stopped out with marginal gains or small stop hits in the very few trades taken in last few sessions we finally could latch on to a few trades. Pasting some of the messages.
buy Nifty Futures at 2665-2660 or if stays above 2682 with a stop of 2639 tgt 2720-2750 in positional. 12/4/2008 11:17:53 AM
Raise stop in Nifty to 2660 tgt 2720-2750.Buy reliance above 1075-1080 stop of 1050 tgt 1120-1140. Momentum level for reliance 1180.12/4/2008 11:39:39 AM
Raise stop in Nifty to 2670 Reliance 1065. partial booking at 2720 and 1120.
12/4/2008 12:31:24 PM
BUY RELInfra at 525-528 small qty stop of 516 tgt 545-560.
12/4/2008 1:09:23 PM
Nifty futures tgt done of 2750 can book fully in the range of 2750-2780 next imp resistance at 2830.Reliance book fully at 1150-1180.rel infra stop 525,ACC 413
12/4/2008 2:38:28 PM
BUY TATA POWER btst at 684-685 stop of 670 tgt 710 -725.small qty only
12/4/2008 3:11:23 PM
Open trades RNRL , ACC , tata power with small exposures.
Market Observations and thoughts :
Some prominent and consistent insider bulk deals by promoters . Click links to check the announcements abt date , time and qty of purchase.
PRAJ ... by parimal chaudhari
NavBharat Ventures .
Gitanjali Gems ... Mr Choksi buyin almost daily
Deccan Chronicle ... Mr Reddy buying consistently
There are many other insider and promoters buying details which are available on bse site. Lot many indications and conclusions possible from it . In cases like Pyramid Saimira , varun shipping the stake has been pledged with brokerages to generate funding too.
Keep a close watch over this data in next 2-3 months.
With the sharp move today there are many stocks which have given a strong bounce backs and are almost close to short term breakouts or already broken out.
We are nearing the resistance area of 2835 to 2860..
Last week close 2755...support now..This week high, Low sofar is 2833...2570..
And we are trading near the high of the week. If we manage to close near the highs, that will give a strength to the weekly technicals..
As Nifty has not surpassed the recent high of 2835, there is chance of a sharp fall if any bad news should come in.Action in individual stocks are happening with volume.
Markets can do as it did after touching 3160...Just fell to 2503 non stop..One more day of confident trading is required for this uptrend to gain momentum..
those who are holding short , can hold their short position with 2831 spot as stop loss........no doubt market is still in bear phase ..........todays upside false rally is nothing but the part of the distribution disply on false upper side..........investors still advice to hold the shorts with 2831 spot as stoploss......... to get the tgt 2550-2510 spot soon.........have a pations ........all the best...............thx......
The Bulls settled scores with Bears to cover their positions in the Banking giant SBI. The RIL has shown its strength lately but firmly. The infrastructure stocks sky rocketed as if there was a Bull run going. The net result is a gain of more than 132 points on Nifty.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
Finally a strong close on Sensex and a sharp move after a few boring sessions. Technically Sensex seems to be very close to the flag/channel/triangle breakout ( diff patterns ) . The near most resistance level is 9300-9500. Sustained closing above those levels gives a move to 9900/10400/10900 in short term.
In the last two days it was discussed in depth with index constituents that a strong bounce was needed desperately and should be sharp. We have got the first initial bounce back in many stocks with SBI crossing 1120 , RIL coming close to 1180 , LT coming close to 780 , ICICI crossing 360. The next surge needed would be sustained close for 2-3 sessions above this level to set in a strong bounce back. Continue to trade on long side with trailing stops in the above stocks.
Many charts with levels have been posted in last 2 days which could be good guides for traders. Also as discussed the counter trend or bear rally could get stronger so it would be better to trail and not go contra.
Stocks to watchout for :
The charts for some stocks have been posted in the post below this . Apart from that
IDEA if closes or stays above 49 can tgt 55-60.
Real estate stocks are seeing speculative built up on base of possible stimulus. Patel Engg , Nag const , Ivrcl infra seem to be good for short term if one wants to speculate. Not a recommendation from my side as i have been on an avoid on this sector since last 4-5 months and has immensely helped not being invested in them.
After being stopped out with marginal gains or small stop hits in the very few trades taken in last few sessions we finally could latch on to a few trades. Pasting some of the messages.
buy Nifty Futures at 2665-2660 or if stays above 2682 with a stop of 2639 tgt 2720-2750 in positional. 12/4/2008 11:17:53 AM
Raise stop in Nifty to 2660 tgt 2720-2750.Buy reliance above 1075-1080 stop of 1050 tgt 1120-1140. Momentum level for reliance 1180.12/4/2008 11:39:39 AM
Raise stop in Nifty to 2670 Reliance 1065. partial booking at 2720 and 1120.
12/4/2008 12:31:24 PM
BUY RELInfra at 525-528 small qty stop of 516 tgt 545-560.
12/4/2008 1:09:23 PM
Nifty futures tgt done of 2750 can book fully in the range of 2750-2780 next imp resistance at 2830.Reliance book fully at 1150-1180.rel infra stop 525,ACC 413
12/4/2008 2:38:28 PM
BUY TATA POWER btst at 684-685 stop of 670 tgt 710 -725.small qty only
12/4/2008 3:11:23 PM
Open trades RNRL , ACC , tata power with small exposures.
Market Observations and thoughts :
Some prominent and consistent insider bulk deals by promoters . Click links to check the announcements abt date , time and qty of purchase.
PRAJ ... by parimal chaudhari
NavBharat Ventures .
Gitanjali Gems ... Mr Choksi buyin almost daily
Deccan Chronicle ... Mr Reddy buying consistently
There are many other insider and promoters buying details which are available on bse site. Lot many indications and conclusions possible from it . In cases like Pyramid Saimira , varun shipping the stake has been pledged with brokerages to generate funding too.
Keep a close watch over this data in next 2-3 months.
With the sharp move today there are many stocks which have given a strong bounce backs and are almost close to short term breakouts or already broken out.
Have included stocks which have sustained above oct lows and not which have been making fresh lows so the risk would be lesser.
Traders should wait for the stock to stay above breakout levels and keep a stop of 3-5 % frm that level and trade with trailing stops to conserve gains.
Just a quick technical review of charts , do your own research and risk mgmt.
ok, let's zoom out our camera and see the whole picture from a distance. The trendlines are a bit different now - the blue lines joins the lows-lows and highs-highs and todays bar has just popped over the triangle formed by these lines. The red trendline is from the January low and points roughly to 3250 region and this trendline is a major resistance, because that's a major trendline! (but why do you always talk about resistances, aren't there anything called supports in your life?)
If everything goes well (overcoming resistances), our final destination is 3250
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