Monday, December 29, 2008

MORNING CALL

SELL WIPRO BELOW 227 TGT 221>215 STOPLOSS230
SELL AXIS BANK BELOW 477 TGT 457>451 STOPLOSS 483




SHORT SELL HDIL Stop Loss 140 Target 105

SHORT SELL GVK Power & Infrastructure Stop Loss 22 Target 15

SHORT SELL Reliance Capital Stop Loss 528 Target 474

SHORT SELL IFCI Stop Loss 24 Target 15


Nifty :: As per our Friday post Nifty break short term S.L 2900.. Now be careful for buying.. Still mid term ridhem (bias) up and that's why watch strong support 2840/2805.. Avoid shorting at lower level up to 2736... Our strategy for 29th Dec Buy on deep (S.L 2805) sell at high.. In one level above 2878 momentum seems up, below 2878 momentum down.. Resistance for up move at 2878/2890/2913/2936/2953/2968.. Supports at 2840/2805/2776/2736..





WE FEEL THAT THIS IS SHORT TERM RETRACEMENT WHICH WAS DUE TO COME AFTER NEARLY 500 POINTS RALLY IN NIFTY .

FUTURE

ABOVE 2902 TARGET 2923-29472975
BELOW 2876 TARGET 2840-2801-2766

Sell SBI below 1230 SL 1252 Target 1210-1181
Sell L&T below 738 SL 751 Target 723-713
Sell RNRL below 51 SL 53.50 Target 48-45
Buy EDUCOMP above 2425 SL 2341 Target 2490-2523-2569
Buy MARUTI above 514 SL 500 Target 523-534

We had a good swing trade in Reliance communication a solid 50 points.
Check old post to see the set up Reliance communication technical analysis
All given targets were touched 250.

Now as we have seen a week's more movement in the RCOM chart ,It looks more or
less like a triangle can see clear 3 waves in each triangle wave...
Here we have two opportunities (would be) the safest would be to try to buy
it near 185-190 with a stoploss below 180 for a possible 10%upside target.

Another idea which is a risky one would be to try to long one it gives a breakout
above the yellow line,Why risky? Because breakouts in BEAR market usually get sold
nicely.


Nifty trading below 2904 will be weak, however we need to watch if we trade and close below 2840 today.


2840 will hold the key for this weeks's nifty movement.if nifty is able to close above 2840 for 2 sessions, we may move up to 3005 levels,


however closing below 2840 will make nifty very weak, and it will be shorted at every rise for tgt of 2687-25xx levels


further for intraday, 2881 is a level to watch where nifty may face some resistence and then at 2904.


supports are at 2840-2811-2780


In my last weekend view I had commented on a good weekly close, this week it’s rather bad, but not all hope for the bulls is lost yet. The weekly chart below shows the recent bearish engulfing bar, encased in a nice triangle of sorts. Speaking of triangles, they are not only notorious for false breakouts; they are also not tradeable till they give you a convincing breakout on either direction. I feel this one is going to penetrate on the downside and quickly reverse and still leave us in lurch as regards to the real direction of the price. Why I am saying this is because Nifty has a strong support at 2800/20 (2780 is one support to die for!). Anything below 2750 and we are surely going to be in lot of trouble coz then the talks of new lows gather momentum (personally I still feel the real trouble starts on breaking 2500!).






The Daily chart below(left) shows that the 20(green) and 50(blue) periods MA’s are converging(a 20 crossing the 50 to the upside would do good to the bulls confidence); this is likely to provide some support or resistance depending weather the price is above or below it. Another important thing is that price is at very important Fibonacci cluster as shown in the chart to you left (it’s the zoom of the shaded area on the daily chart on the right). The problem is that all supports when broken are becoming formidable resistances and all resistances when overcome have failed to become strong supports. I guess maybe this is the trait of bear markets.






The hourly chart below shows oversold, will it provide meaningful bounce? If we find support at 2780/2800 and reverse it would be prudent to go long with a stop at 2750. Nifty has good resistance on the hourly charts at 2910/15 first aggressive stop if you are already short and then at 2960/70(see all the MA’s converging there!), this should be the conservative stop for shorts.












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