The Indian market ended with marginal loss after flat opening but recover from the lower levels. For coming session if nifty cross 2945 it can test 2980 -3050 on the lower side 2860 will act as support zone .We can see choppy trade for the session on the released of IIP data for the October 2008 for any long 2860 levels stop-loss.A profit booking day..Nifty bounces back after the corrections. Watch the trendline supports from 2570 rally. If breached, Nifty may trade in a sideways mode of 2750 to 2950..
Hourly is overbought. As long as hourly closes above 2910, trend continues below which weakens..to 2860/2830.
Daily trend is intact.Trend turning down on a close below 2840(5 ema) or 2790(12 ema).Above 2945, may attempt 2975/3050(50 DMA)
Weekly trend will turn up on a close above 2805 on Friday(Slow Macd & stochastics will turn up).
Hourly is overbought. As long as hourly closes above 2910, trend continues below which weakens..to 2860/2830.
Daily trend is intact.Trend turning down on a close below 2840(5 ema) or 2790(12 ema).Above 2945, may attempt 2975/3050(50 DMA)
Weekly trend will turn up on a close above 2805 on Friday(Slow Macd & stochastics will turn up).
those who r stuk in nifty future near 2560--2600 spot level can put there revised exit stoploss as 3020 spot..........as per ewi study and considering todays moove of nifty........u can hold all the short with given stoploss for better tgt 2500-2420 in this month or in the next month.....roll over the nifty with respective stoploss if our tgt doesnot comes in this month.......as bear still riding confidentely............those who stuk in buying 2500 put can squre up those n take double qty of 2800 put of december to recover it and making gud profit .
Nifty held on to its level of 2860 below 2900 and we closed for the second day over that level.RIL again came to the support and in late trade made impressive move.We have completed 7 days of positive trade and people who are short must be having a harrowing time seeing the market run up so fast and the falls so shallow..the range now is 2860-2940 app. Any break out will take markets 60-80 points quickly in that direction..Trade light and with caution...Cheers.
-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty future Chart
ABOVE 2910 TARGET 2990-3030-3113
BELOW 2880 TARGET 2845-2803-2755
-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
Buy ITC above 172 SL 169 Target 176-182
Buy CAIRN above 154 SL 147 Target 163-170
Buy RELCAP above 493 SL 482 Target 512-523
Sell PFC below 123 SL 129 Target 119-116-113
Sell IDFC below 64 SL 67 Target 60-57
Sell NTPC below 166 SL 170 Target 162-160-158
Always remember, put SL in your every trade.
Strictly follow Above and Below price, then follow strictly SL
Current generation of investors and economists in any asset class will never forget 2008 as it spoiled reputations of analysts and mutual fund managers, bankrupted Companies while investors lost billions of money. Investors learnt lifetime investment lessons in just 1 year and 2008 dispelled many investment myths. Millions of people lost jobs while Companies left with assets due to mindless expansions. Real Estate boom was gone while crude oil bubble busted. The ferocity of fall in January and October of 2008 left even experienced investors with shock and many people fell into depressive mood from euphoric “Reliance Power” atmosphere of early 2008.
What happened in 2008?
1. BSE Sensex crossed 21,000 levels in January and analysts predicted 25,000 levels but Sensex fell to 7,800 in October. Experts are now talking about 7,000 target in 2009.
2. Rupee strengthened to 39 against dollar and analysts like ICICI Kamat predicted 35 levels but rupee fell to 50 levels. Experts are now talking about 55 against dollar in 2009.
3. Crude Oil prices touched $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs talked about $200 per barrel but crude oil in now trading around $45 levels. Experts are now talking about $30 per barrel in 2009.
4. Inflation moved to 13% and analysts talked about 15% but inflation fell to 8% in December. Experts are now talking about 4% levels in 2009. They are actually now talking about deflation.
5. Indian GDP grew at 9% in 2007-08 and analysts predicted about 10% growth in 2009. Experts are now talking about 7% GDP growth in 2008-09 and 5% GDP growth in 2009-10.
6. Commodities traded around all time high levels in June, 2008 but they collapsed to 2003 levels in December, 2008. Companies are now shutting down plants and are removing employees due to lack of demand and piling up of inventories.
7. Investment banking is the most sought after industry in early 2008. They are now either disappeared or merged with banks.
8. Real Estate prices reached stratospheric levels in early 2008 but investors bought them as if there will be no land available for purchase in 2009. They are now announcing bonuses and free offers to attract buyers. Many real estate stocks corrected by 70-90% in this year alone. We will hear some bankruptcies in 2009 in this sector. DLF and Unitech will cut prices by 30% in 2009.
Investment lessons from 2008:
1. Unlike in past, stock markets now become more dynamic, more volatile and more unpredictable due to more global integration of economy and money flows.
2. Stock market investors will never react normally – they will either overreact or under react to the economic or political events. One should take into consideration this psychological aspect along with business fundamentals in arriving at price target.
3. As I said in my previous posts, stock markets always move much ahead of real economy. If real economy will suffer in early 2009, stocks fell by October, 2009. If economic conditions will improve by early 2010, stocks will rise by late 2009.
4. Timing: It is very difficult to time the stock market investments. 80% of price variations occur in 20% of days – time of maximum profits and losses.
5. Significant falls or rises do not occur in slow motion. They are steep and severe.
6. Never follow herds. Believe in your research and gut feeling. Just see what happened to investors in Reliance Power IPO.
7. Biggest investment lesson: When investors are in panic mood, even good companies with strong growth prospectes also fall along with bad overvalued stocks.
I am requesting readers to share about lessons they learnt in 2008 through comments in the blog.
Significant statements:
1. RBI Governor: “The global economic crisis is turning out to be deeper and longer than we had earlier expected, the impact on India is also turning out to be stronger than we had earlier expected.” This is the frank statement from Subbarao. How long Government will deceive people on this unmanageable issue? Biggest problem with this crisis is no one in the world knows about magnitude and duration of financial crisis. According to RBI Governor, 2009-10 may be a more difficult year.
2. Commerce Minister: “Government will announce second stimulus package in the next week. Textiles, Agriculture and Construction are the priority sectors for Government in the next package.”
3. Jack Welch (former GE Chairman): “The terror strike in Mumbai could well tilt the focus of foreign investors towards neighbouring China. This is the perception of foreigners about India. Many investors will be thinking about tilting the balance to China. How India’s leaders respond to the Mumbai attacks will tell the business world what it wants and needs to know. Not just whether to pull back from India but how risky pushing forward will be.”
4. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: “India will see the mother of all bull runs in the next 4 or 5 years, boosted by double-digit economic growth and increased investment by domestic investors, including pension and insurance funds.”
5. World Bank: “The financial crisis is now likely to result in the most serious recession since the 1930s.”
6. International Energy Agency (IEA): for the first time in 25 years, demand for crude falls. This is the first drop for crude oil demand since 1983.
7. Mahindra and Mahindra: “We will endure 2-3 months at best but should this slow down last 6-8 months, things will become tough”. This is the preparation of our companies to face the global recession. Current slowdown will definitely lasts for 6-8 months, and then what is your plan, Mahindraji?
Significant statistics:
1. Reuters poll: India's economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace in six years in the fiscal year to March 2009. Indian GDP growth will be around 6.8% in 2008-09 and 6.2% in 2009-10. Indian economy never grew less than 7.5% in the last 5 years. According to World Bank, India will grow by 5.8% in 2009.
My estimates for Indian GDP: 6.2% in 2008-09, 5% in 2009-10 and will be around 7% in 2010-11.
2. New claims for unemployment benefits reached their highest level (5,73,000) in 26 years in USA. These job losses will have cascading effect on real economy. More than 20 lakh Americans will lose jobs in 2009 and unemployment rate will touch 9% level in 2009.
3. McKinsey report: United States credit losses may top $3 trillion. These losses will increase if another major asset class will collapse.
4. Goldman Sachs: China GDP growth for 2009 is around 6%. Shocking! China will grow at 9% in 2010 if Government takes proper simulative decisions. India will be in election mood when we need these measures.
5. World Bank: Global trade will fall for the first time since 1982. World economy will grow by 0.9% in 2009 and inflows to developing countries will fall by 50%.
6. Asian Development Bank (ADB): Growth rates of China and India will be at 8.2% and 6.5% respectively in 2009. India needs particular attention, given its weaker fiscal position.
7. China: Exports fell by 2.2% in November, the first decline since June 2001 - the largest year-over-year monthly decline since April 1999. Can China save world economy?
8. DLF and Unitech may lower property prices by 30% in mid-2009 to stimulate buyers.
Positive Stock market news:
1. GMR group is expected to bag Rs 2,500 crore worth of projects from NHAI in 2009. Will it continue to bag projects if non-congress Government came to power in 2009?
2. Global Telecom Companies are planning to buy 20-25% stake in Reliance Communications. R-Com stock lost 70% of value in 2008. Anil Ambani family holds 67% stake in the company. This deal is beneficial for investors as only 12% of shares are available for trading after this purchase in the secondary market. Promoter will not reduce his holding.
3. Manpower survey: India is the second most optimistic employment market in the world but there will freezing in hiring in the next 3 months. IT and Hospitality sectors are the worst affected while Telecom is the most optimistic one.
FCCB shocks:
Foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs?) of many companies will be due for repayment in the next 3 years. As stock markets are unlikely to recover in the next 12-15 months, it is interesting to see how promoters will clear their dues. We may hear some shocking news on this front in the next 2 years.
NPA shocks:
Many people are underestimating the impact of Non Performing Assets (NPAs). NPAs will affect in 2 ways. NPAs will not only propel the negative sentiment but increase the banks reluctance to give loans which will once again destroy the positive aspects of the bailout packages. Only positive aspect is many PSU banks reported fall in NPAs in 2008 over 2007 except SBI and IOB.
NPA statistics:
NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2007: Rs 5,930 crore.
NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2008: Rs 9,500 crore.
NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2009: Rs ????? crore.
Interesting statistics about Asian and World economies:
1. World Bank estimates:
A. November, 2008: World economy will grow by 2.2% in 2009.
B. December, 2008: World economy will grow by 0.9% in 2009.
C. January, 2009: World economy will grow by ???% in 2009.
2. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2009:
A. September, 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7.2% in 2009.
B. December, 2008: Asian economy will grow by 5.8% in 2009.
C. February, 2009: Asian economy will grow by ??% in 2009.
3. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2008:
A. September, 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7.5% in 2008.
B. December, 2008: Asianeconomy will grow by 6.9% in 2008.
4. Current P/E of Sensex: 10.
P/E of Sensex in 2001 economic slowdown: 9.5
This is a much severe crisis than 2001 slowdown. Tell about your Sensex target!
Politics in 2009:
BSP’s Mayawati will play vital role along with CPM, AIADMK and TDP after 2009 Loksabha elections. Third front will get around 130-150 seats in the next general elections. Third front will form Government with the support of Congress. If AIADMK supports BJP, then that is good news for Stock Market investors. I am expecting "Hung result" in the next Loksabha polls which is not a good news for investors.
Look out for opportunities:
Troubled economic times will always produce new giants due to innovative entrepreneurs. Microsoft, Apple and Texas Instruments etc were born when economy was reeling under severe crisis. Investors should lookout for companies in affordable housing, niche sectors, alternate energy and rural economy dependant companies etc for long term investment. Current market is suitable only for those who have stable income till 2010 who can accumulate at cheap prices on major falls in 2009. Those who need money should opt for ultra short term investments until economy comes out off woods. Till then, stocks cannot sustain their gains due to profit booking.
So many investors are waiting for profit booking even at losses if Sensex crosses 12,000 levels. That’s why it is very difficult for Sensex to make new highs even on strong rally. Even if Sensex succeeds in making rally beyond 13,000, it will not sustain. If you don’t book profits, others will do. Long term investors with 3-5 year investment horizon will get superb returns. They can continue to accumulate stocks without thinking about all these events.
My target for Sensex in 2009: 6,500-12,500.
Stock markets will see wild swings due to stimulus packages (positive) and bad underlying fundamentals (bad). Why Companies are removing workers and closing of plants? There are not expecting positive triggers in the next 6 months. Unless we contain job losses, it is impossible to revive economy - Unless we revive economy, it is impossible to contain job lossess. How to solve this crisis?
Note: As I said, stock markets become more dynamic in these days. So monitor the situation on daily basis. Maximum profits/losses occur in the first few days of rallies/falls. 90% of my future investments are meant for ultra-short term only. I will exit any stock with 30-40% gains irrespective their growth propsects as I did recently in Sun TV. It is very difficult to sustain gains in this market.
Must read:
1. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Bloomberg. He is not straight forward in his comments.
2. Global stock markets in 2008.
3. Stocks say recession, but bonds say depression: TIME.
Refer to the sectoral analysis post somewhere down below. As noted there, the IT sector dropped 4% today and looks like it's the thing to short tomorrow. The four big ones have dropped like this - Infosys 3.31%, Satyam 5.14%, TCS 6.17% and Wipro 4.44%. I picked Wipro because it's sitting nicely on top of the BB. I'm not going to tell you any entry- exit and stop levels, but you do your own thing and do it! If you make something outa this then one beer is on you and don't hang me if you don't! ATB!
What happened in 2008?
1. BSE Sensex crossed 21,000 levels in January and analysts predicted 25,000 levels but Sensex fell to 7,800 in October. Experts are now talking about 7,000 target in 2009.
2. Rupee strengthened to 39 against dollar and analysts like ICICI Kamat predicted 35 levels but rupee fell to 50 levels. Experts are now talking about 55 against dollar in 2009.
3. Crude Oil prices touched $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs talked about $200 per barrel but crude oil in now trading around $45 levels. Experts are now talking about $30 per barrel in 2009.
4. Inflation moved to 13% and analysts talked about 15% but inflation fell to 8% in December. Experts are now talking about 4% levels in 2009. They are actually now talking about deflation.
5. Indian GDP grew at 9% in 2007-08 and analysts predicted about 10% growth in 2009. Experts are now talking about 7% GDP growth in 2008-09 and 5% GDP growth in 2009-10.
6. Commodities traded around all time high levels in June, 2008 but they collapsed to 2003 levels in December, 2008. Companies are now shutting down plants and are removing employees due to lack of demand and piling up of inventories.
7. Investment banking is the most sought after industry in early 2008. They are now either disappeared or merged with banks.
8. Real Estate prices reached stratospheric levels in early 2008 but investors bought them as if there will be no land available for purchase in 2009. They are now announcing bonuses and free offers to attract buyers. Many real estate stocks corrected by 70-90% in this year alone. We will hear some bankruptcies in 2009 in this sector. DLF and Unitech will cut prices by 30% in 2009.
Investment lessons from 2008:
1. Unlike in past, stock markets now become more dynamic, more volatile and more unpredictable due to more global integration of economy and money flows.
2. Stock market investors will never react normally – they will either overreact or under react to the economic or political events. One should take into consideration this psychological aspect along with business fundamentals in arriving at price target.
3. As I said in my previous posts, stock markets always move much ahead of real economy. If real economy will suffer in early 2009, stocks fell by October, 2009. If economic conditions will improve by early 2010, stocks will rise by late 2009.
4. Timing: It is very difficult to time the stock market investments. 80% of price variations occur in 20% of days – time of maximum profits and losses.
5. Significant falls or rises do not occur in slow motion. They are steep and severe.
6. Never follow herds. Believe in your research and gut feeling. Just see what happened to investors in Reliance Power IPO.
7. Biggest investment lesson: When investors are in panic mood, even good companies with strong growth prospectes also fall along with bad overvalued stocks.
I am requesting readers to share about lessons they learnt in 2008 through comments in the blog.
Significant statements:
1. RBI Governor: “The global economic crisis is turning out to be deeper and longer than we had earlier expected, the impact on India is also turning out to be stronger than we had earlier expected.” This is the frank statement from Subbarao. How long Government will deceive people on this unmanageable issue? Biggest problem with this crisis is no one in the world knows about magnitude and duration of financial crisis. According to RBI Governor, 2009-10 may be a more difficult year.
2. Commerce Minister: “Government will announce second stimulus package in the next week. Textiles, Agriculture and Construction are the priority sectors for Government in the next package.”
3. Jack Welch (former GE Chairman): “The terror strike in Mumbai could well tilt the focus of foreign investors towards neighbouring China. This is the perception of foreigners about India. Many investors will be thinking about tilting the balance to China. How India’s leaders respond to the Mumbai attacks will tell the business world what it wants and needs to know. Not just whether to pull back from India but how risky pushing forward will be.”
4. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: “India will see the mother of all bull runs in the next 4 or 5 years, boosted by double-digit economic growth and increased investment by domestic investors, including pension and insurance funds.”
5. World Bank: “The financial crisis is now likely to result in the most serious recession since the 1930s.”
6. International Energy Agency (IEA): for the first time in 25 years, demand for crude falls. This is the first drop for crude oil demand since 1983.
7. Mahindra and Mahindra: “We will endure 2-3 months at best but should this slow down last 6-8 months, things will become tough”. This is the preparation of our companies to face the global recession. Current slowdown will definitely lasts for 6-8 months, and then what is your plan, Mahindraji?
Significant statistics:
1. Reuters poll: India's economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace in six years in the fiscal year to March 2009. Indian GDP growth will be around 6.8% in 2008-09 and 6.2% in 2009-10. Indian economy never grew less than 7.5% in the last 5 years. According to World Bank, India will grow by 5.8% in 2009.
My estimates for Indian GDP: 6.2% in 2008-09, 5% in 2009-10 and will be around 7% in 2010-11.
2. New claims for unemployment benefits reached their highest level (5,73,000) in 26 years in USA. These job losses will have cascading effect on real economy. More than 20 lakh Americans will lose jobs in 2009 and unemployment rate will touch 9% level in 2009.
3. McKinsey report: United States credit losses may top $3 trillion. These losses will increase if another major asset class will collapse.
4. Goldman Sachs: China GDP growth for 2009 is around 6%. Shocking! China will grow at 9% in 2010 if Government takes proper simulative decisions. India will be in election mood when we need these measures.
5. World Bank: Global trade will fall for the first time since 1982. World economy will grow by 0.9% in 2009 and inflows to developing countries will fall by 50%.
6. Asian Development Bank (ADB): Growth rates of China and India will be at 8.2% and 6.5% respectively in 2009. India needs particular attention, given its weaker fiscal position.
7. China: Exports fell by 2.2% in November, the first decline since June 2001 - the largest year-over-year monthly decline since April 1999. Can China save world economy?
8. DLF and Unitech may lower property prices by 30% in mid-2009 to stimulate buyers.
Positive Stock market news:
1. GMR group is expected to bag Rs 2,500 crore worth of projects from NHAI in 2009. Will it continue to bag projects if non-congress Government came to power in 2009?
2. Global Telecom Companies are planning to buy 20-25% stake in Reliance Communications. R-Com stock lost 70% of value in 2008. Anil Ambani family holds 67% stake in the company. This deal is beneficial for investors as only 12% of shares are available for trading after this purchase in the secondary market. Promoter will not reduce his holding.
3. Manpower survey: India is the second most optimistic employment market in the world but there will freezing in hiring in the next 3 months. IT and Hospitality sectors are the worst affected while Telecom is the most optimistic one.
FCCB shocks:
Foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs?) of many companies will be due for repayment in the next 3 years. As stock markets are unlikely to recover in the next 12-15 months, it is interesting to see how promoters will clear their dues. We may hear some shocking news on this front in the next 2 years.
NPA shocks:
Many people are underestimating the impact of Non Performing Assets (NPAs). NPAs will affect in 2 ways. NPAs will not only propel the negative sentiment but increase the banks reluctance to give loans which will once again destroy the positive aspects of the bailout packages. Only positive aspect is many PSU banks reported fall in NPAs in 2008 over 2007 except SBI and IOB.
NPA statistics:
NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2007: Rs 5,930 crore.
NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2008: Rs 9,500 crore.
NPAs of ICICI Bank in 2009: Rs ????? crore.
Interesting statistics about Asian and World economies:
1. World Bank estimates:
A. November, 2008: World economy will grow by 2.2% in 2009.
B. December, 2008: World economy will grow by 0.9% in 2009.
C. January, 2009: World economy will grow by ???% in 2009.
2. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2009:
A. September, 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7.2% in 2009.
B. December, 2008: Asian economy will grow by 5.8% in 2009.
C. February, 2009: Asian economy will grow by ??% in 2009.
3. ADB estimates about Asian economy in 2008:
A. September, 2008: Asian economy will grow by 7.5% in 2008.
B. December, 2008: Asianeconomy will grow by 6.9% in 2008.
4. Current P/E of Sensex: 10.
P/E of Sensex in 2001 economic slowdown: 9.5
This is a much severe crisis than 2001 slowdown. Tell about your Sensex target!
Politics in 2009:
BSP’s Mayawati will play vital role along with CPM, AIADMK and TDP after 2009 Loksabha elections. Third front will get around 130-150 seats in the next general elections. Third front will form Government with the support of Congress. If AIADMK supports BJP, then that is good news for Stock Market investors. I am expecting "Hung result" in the next Loksabha polls which is not a good news for investors.
Look out for opportunities:
Troubled economic times will always produce new giants due to innovative entrepreneurs. Microsoft, Apple and Texas Instruments etc were born when economy was reeling under severe crisis. Investors should lookout for companies in affordable housing, niche sectors, alternate energy and rural economy dependant companies etc for long term investment. Current market is suitable only for those who have stable income till 2010 who can accumulate at cheap prices on major falls in 2009. Those who need money should opt for ultra short term investments until economy comes out off woods. Till then, stocks cannot sustain their gains due to profit booking.
So many investors are waiting for profit booking even at losses if Sensex crosses 12,000 levels. That’s why it is very difficult for Sensex to make new highs even on strong rally. Even if Sensex succeeds in making rally beyond 13,000, it will not sustain. If you don’t book profits, others will do. Long term investors with 3-5 year investment horizon will get superb returns. They can continue to accumulate stocks without thinking about all these events.
My target for Sensex in 2009: 6,500-12,500.
Stock markets will see wild swings due to stimulus packages (positive) and bad underlying fundamentals (bad). Why Companies are removing workers and closing of plants? There are not expecting positive triggers in the next 6 months. Unless we contain job losses, it is impossible to revive economy - Unless we revive economy, it is impossible to contain job lossess. How to solve this crisis?
Note: As I said, stock markets become more dynamic in these days. So monitor the situation on daily basis. Maximum profits/losses occur in the first few days of rallies/falls. 90% of my future investments are meant for ultra-short term only. I will exit any stock with 30-40% gains irrespective their growth propsects as I did recently in Sun TV. It is very difficult to sustain gains in this market.
Must read:
1. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Bloomberg. He is not straight forward in his comments.
2. Global stock markets in 2008.
3. Stocks say recession, but bonds say depression: TIME.
Refer to the sectoral analysis post somewhere down below. As noted there, the IT sector dropped 4% today and looks like it's the thing to short tomorrow. The four big ones have dropped like this - Infosys 3.31%, Satyam 5.14%, TCS 6.17% and Wipro 4.44%. I picked Wipro because it's sitting nicely on top of the BB. I'm not going to tell you any entry- exit and stop levels, but you do your own thing and do it! If you make something outa this then one beer is on you and don't hang me if you don't! ATB!
No, no no! I don't like the way this pullback is going. Today, among the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 32 have dropped while only 18 have gained. That's trouble boys! Be careful! The broader market did well with 809 advancing to 435 declining.
nifty has been showing some negative divergence for 2-3 days on various indicators and 2950 being on upper trendline could not be crossed, if any move on upperside is pending it could be upto 2980-3020 after which a good shorting opportunity(or on break of intraday trendline which will run between 2875-2925 during intraday for tomorrow) exists upto 2690/2550. reliance also seems max upside till 1380 after which may turn downwards toward 1050 etc.
today is 30th day from the day of making low of 2253 or 61.8% timewise of downmove from 4650-2253. on our ew counts, for the terminal impulse C of C-4, 3 waves seems completed and today and a couple of days were expected to be down days((4) of C of C-4) upto eod trendline, followed by an upmove.
nifty has been showing some negative divergence for 2-3 days on various indicators and 2950 being on upper trendline could not be crossed, if any move on upperside is pending it could be upto 2980-3020 after which a good shorting opportunity(or on break of intraday trendline which will run between 2875-2925 during intraday for tomorrow) exists upto 2690/2550. reliance also seems max upside till 1380 after which may turn downwards toward 1050 etc.
today is 30th day from the day of making low of 2253 or 61.8% timewise of downmove from 4650-2253. on our ew counts, for the terminal impulse C of C-4, 3 waves seems completed and today and a couple of days were expected to be down days((4) of C of C-4) upto eod trendline, followed by an upmove.
financial market technicals by abhay
NIFTY ( 2920.15)
Resistance : 2960 / 2995 / 3020-35
Support : 2885-70 / 2850 / 2825 / 2775 / 2705
SENSEX
Resistance : 9780 / 9915
Support : 9470 / 9305
NIFTY FUT
Resistance : 2965-75 / 3015
Support : 2875 / 2825
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI flat with 12% decreasing volumes indicating unwinding of long position. We expect profit booking at higher levels.
NIFTY FUT to trade volatile but stock specific movement will remain.
MARKET ALERT:
US$DOLLAR/JPY(YEN)@ 91.25..OCT LOWS
CRUDE@47$
DOLLAR DEPRECIATING AGAINST YEN..GOING BELOW 88 CAN BRING CARNAGE IN ASIAN MKTS
MAY SEE BIG FALL IN ASIAN MKTS IN NEXT FEW DAYS
ACCUMULATE 2900-2800 PUTS NEAR THOSE LEVELS
On the Friday,Opening is flat to up,
Stay Long Above 2930-35,Sl Below 2905,Tgt 2960-75/2985/3015/3040
Sustain Below 2905-900,Sell with Sl Above 2930,Tgt 2885/2870/2845/2825-15/2785/2710
ESSAR OIL Dec Fut Looking Hot & Fiery
Buy RELCAPITAL Dec Fut @494,Sl Below 475,Tgt 496/499/501/506/511-513-516/521/526/532/538-540 (Lot Size 138)
Buy WELGUJ Dec Fut @90-91,Sl Below 87,Tgt 92/93/94-95/96/98-99 (Lot Size 800)
Sell ONGC Dec Fut @655,Sl 660-670,Tgt 645/640/635/630
Sell ROLTA Dec Fut(Risky) @128,Sl Above 133,Tgt 127/126/124-123/121/119-118 (Lot Size 800)
LNT Looking Hot & Fiery Above 790-795
Buy RELCAPITAL above 495
Buy TATA POWER @ 730,Sloss Below 719,Tgt-750-765.
Buy JP ASSO Above 84,Sl 82,Tgt 88/90++
Buy ORCHID CHEM Above 89,Sl 87,Tgt 93/96/98
Buy SIEMENS Above 250,Sl 245,Tgt 255/260/265
Buy JPHYDRO Above 28,Sl 26,Tgt 30/32/34
Buy SUZLON Above 50,Sl 48,Tgt 52/55/57
Buy ASIANPAINT Above @ 870,Tgt 880-885-905,SL-865
Buy HEROHONDA Above @ 795,Tgt 805-815-835SL-790
Buy INDIACEM Above @ 99,Tgt 102-106-115,SL-97
Sell GRASIM Below @ 1075,Tgt 1050-1020-945,SL-1090
Sell HPCL Below @ 222,Tgt 219-214-203,SL-225
Sell Dr.REDDY Below @ 455,Tgt 450-415-370,SL-465
| Scrip | Trigger | Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| IVRCLINFRA | BUY ABOVE | 153.45 | 152.05 | 155.15 | 157.55 |
|
| SELL BELOW | 150.10 | 151.45 | 148.45 | 146.15 |
| LITL | BUY ABOVE | 141.10 | 139.85 | 142.65 | 144.85 |
|
| SELL BELOW | 138.05 | 139.30 | 136.50 | 134.40 |
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