The Indian market opened on marginally weak note and drift in red zone it was lackluster session saw some action at last trading session. For coming session 2910 is main support below it we can test 2866 zone on other side 2945 resistances .Nifty is moving in narrow band 2860- 3150 .
Nifty found support at 2900 today and closed near last week's close.
There is another channel bottom comes at 2800 below which downtrend will become faster.
Though hourly indicators are at the bottom, there are no +ve divergences.Hence, further lows are possible.
If Asian Cues are + ve,we may have a bounce(2900 holds) to 2960, above which to 3000.
If Asian cues are - ve, a fall below 2900 towards 2860 failing which 2800 possible.
As the daily technicals are in down mode, use any bounces to sell only.
Imp: Ability of the market to find a bottom near 2800-2860 area and reverse in the next 2 to 3 days will help reach higher levels.However, a decisive fall below 2800 may lead to much lower levels/ new lows.
These are the two options for which the clues should emerge in the next few days.
Another Major point is that we will be ending the year & the month in the next 4 days.Month has performed well thus far but the year is quite catostrophic. So to which end it will go to close...monthly bullish or yearly bearish..??
Click on chart and see what's happen when Central Bank cut Rate ..
Fed Versus Dow 1929 to 1932..
Bank of Japan Versus Nikkei 1989 to 2002..
GreenSpan Versus Nasdaq 2000 to 2002..
Bemanke Versus S&P 2007..
as i said earlier in the call given on 24th dec 08,, nifty slide dwn up to 2920--2900 spot level and bounce from 2900 level.. see the graf pasted for call of 24th dec again..............and buy nifty at the opening ,, with 2899 as spot stoploss for tgt 2960-3000-3040 spot.............u may keep this call as positional....nifty will take some more time to reach 3000 spot level,,, thats why keep this call as positional with respective stoploss 2899 spot... book ur profit nearby or around respective tgts given.............do not w8 for exact tgt to come
2009 would be more range bound with many rallies fizzling out at higher level 13,000-14,000, Range for market would be 9000-14,000 and I would call this a year of accumulation, 2009 Year end target to be around 14,000 levels.
Year 2008 Sensex has corrected from high of 21206(January2008) to 7697(October2008) and in the 12month we have seen big erosion in value.
Indian Index has higher weightage for Crude S&P CNX Nifty has 22.4% ( Reliance+RPL+Cairn+ONGC) just 4stock in total 50 stock dominate Nifty while in Sensex 2stock hold 18.64% ( Reliance+ONGC) http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_showarticle.php?art=20081225b_005101001
Negative for market in 2009:
* Earning downgrade in the next 2-3quater
* Election year, first 5month will be like a caretaker Govt with no fresh proposal and Budget will be placed by new Govt in power.
* Stability and ability of the new Govt cant judged at this point of time.
* Fiscal deficit has almost reached 5% of GDP and with election year more sops can be anticipated.
* Indo-Pak relationship hits new low after terror attack possibility of war has emerged.
* Terror attack in Mumbai has put break on new investment plan. And many new entrants are planning to have there office in south (Bangalore, Hyderabad or Chennai).
* Index components like RPower, Suzlon, JP Assoc, Unitech, RPL have crashed between 75 to 90% from their peak. Many of these companies have not completed even 5 years on the bourses, and so it gives a feeling of hasty index selection process for Nifty.
Positive for market in 2009:
* Sensex trading near 8.8 forward earning and lowest point from 2001.
* Falling commodity prices will ease pressure on user industry and another price cut in petroleum products anticipated which could push prices down.
* Govt stimulus would boost the economy after 3-4month and slow recovery is anticipated.
* Higher base effect of inflation will keep inflation low and more rates cut and easing of monetary policy possible.
* Lower crude prices have made Bio-fuel costly pushing down prices of wheat and corn in U.S increasing supply of food product.
* India is still 2nd fastest growing economy.
* Fiscal deficit to be controlled by disinvestment or strategic sale by new Govt which will be in place before June2009.
October month saw highest fall in index- Hedge funds allows there investor to withdraw money once a year and they can apply by September 30 seeing heavy demand of redemption in 2008 September, heavy selling was seen and Indian market low was marked, November has been relatively quite and December has seen buying from FIIs and SEBI data is provided below.
Many ask if new low is possible.
I ask where will be markets after 2-3years if you answer 16000-18000 then you should be invested 40-50% at these levels. Today 25/Dec/2008 Sensex is 9568 and majority fear Sensex can touch level below 7,000 creating new low, I run a risk 2,500 points and I would be able to average as I hold cash 50-60%.
Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing - Warren Buffet
But now we know the risk of buying and can invest.
What if Sensex doesn't go below 9,000?
We would miss opportunity and maybe buy at higher level. And with FIIs turning buyers in December 2008 till date and fresh allocation in January 2009 can change equation. Many said.
Quote: In Stock market there is never clarity, Media or someone won't tell you this is the best time to buy, and at peak market looks attractive at bottom market looks to panic always take informed decision.
Ratios are past; market always like to discount future.
Contrarian view:
Where do you see the Sensex after 3-4 years?
Sensex can possibly target 22,000 around levels by 2012 January 3years from now, when we talked about Sensex reaching 9700-10500 by March2009 it looked odd as we did say as early as November 2007 and latter cautioned from January 2008 time when Sensex touched 21206.
Do you see a possibility of Sensex making a newer low?
Predicting market exactly is never possible but now risk to reward ratio is favorable for a long term investor. Bull markets are normally born on excess pessimism, Bull markets had created excess and now all excesses have been shed. More of range bound market ranging from 9000-14000 is my outlook.
What makes you feel FIIs investment will flow back into India?
Globally interest rates are nearing zero making high risky assets like equity attractive and with weaker rupee can attract more investment. India being 2nd fastest growing economy and has better regulated markets compared to many other emerging market and market quoting at relatively discounted valuation 8.8times forward earning makes me positive.
What if foreign investment doesn't come?
Indian saving rate is above 30% one of the highest in the globe and pending reforms like pension, insurance and banking would improve which can make local money getting invested in Indian equity market in a better way compensating foreign inflow.
What would be the change when new Government gets formed?
Many pending bills will be passed Insurance, Banking, pension and allowing private sector into nuclear energy also can happen. Disinvestment of many PSU like NTPC, BHEL, BEL and many more can happen, and total sale of few companies like Maruti & TATACOMM can also happen as Govt need funds to bridge the fiscal deficit.
FII Data for 2008
Jan-08
-13035.7
Feb-08
1733.3
Mar-08
-130.4
Apr-08
1074.8
May-08
-5011.5
Jun-08
-10095.8
Jul-08
-1836.8
Aug-08
-1211.7
Sep-08
-8278.1
Oct-08
-15347.3
Nov-08
-2598.3
Dec-08
2013.8
Total 2008
-52723.7
Source :- SEBI website
Major Points:
* Indian Elections are due in Q2 CY09 and markets will be happy whichever of Congress (the ruling party) or the BJP (the current opposition) forms the next coalition government. Further, increased earnings visibility, with benign interest and inflation rates will result in a PE revision offsetting any fiscal deficit concerns.
* Asset allocations' country allocation decisions to be driven by two factors i) relative underlying growth and strength of the domestic economy, ii) Size and liquidity of the market. India and China, both large markets with buoyant and strong domestic underlying growth, will be big beneficiaries. So good FDI and FII flows into the Chinese and Indian economy Q2 CY09 onwards.
* Japan Inflow to come in a major way to India in coming years already data has been send and discussed few months back.
BHEL, BEL, SAIL, BEML, OBC, SBIN, NTPC, SCI, CORP.BANK=PSU
SIEMENS, ABB, APIL, BATAINDIA, CUMMINSINDIA=MNC
BGRENERGY, TATAPOWER=Power
RCOM & IDEA=Telecom
ICICIBANK, SOUTHINDIABANK= Private Bank
INFOSYS, TCS, ROLTA=TECH
IVRCL, LT, PUNJLLYOD, HCC=Infrastructure
RPL, TATASTEEL, RANBAXY, EXIDE, MAH&MAH, MARUTI, DABUR, THERMAX, SINTEX, TATATEA, TITAN, IDFC and RELIANCE ---- NEW YEAR2009 picks
Recap of what was said in 2008/January
The below given views is of my own (A.K.Prabhakar of ANANDRATHI) it doesn't reflect companies view. U.S markets has had its impact on global markets from 1980's so based on that the below given text is prepared-Published on 7/January/2008
Global market Special view: Dow has broken 13000 levels and 75week moving average which comes around 12700 is the support in many ways (Low in previous rally) and as per Dow Theory U.S market is entering bear phase. And talk of recession hitting U.S is getting bigger and Fed cutting interest rate also won't help as inflationary pressure has to be also addressed with Crude around $98.
How will India be affected by this development?
Already Indian exports are affected by rising Rupee and any slowdown in U.S will impact our Tech & Textile sector which is highest employer in India. New generation employees have created credit beyond 4-5yrs and if no salary hike is given, it will affect them very badly. (Salary cut or unemployment would be disaster)
What impact will this have in our stocks market?
In 2007 India got 71000crs from foreign funds and if Global markets reacts then all emerging markets funds would go into safer investment like debt and gold. And with Reliance Power issue which can suck minimum of 12000crs in liquidity, if fresh flows are hard to come we can see intermediate correction.
Do we see any slowdown in investment from FIIs?
As per data available in NSE & BSE website funds which has come into secondary markets is negative from November till date and there is no signs yet that new funds from western world would come in. Major correction in U.S market would make global investor withdraw money from emerging markets.
Is Indian markets attractive in short term?
Indian growth story is very strong but any recession globally will affect us also as high crude is benefiting Indian growth in big way as Indian employment, exports and investment come from gulf region in major way (Engineering, construction & raw material). And our stocks markets have fully priced in future growth, but still many attractive pockets remain liquidity is always very important.
What will be long term impact?
World Recession can bring slowdown in India at the maximum, but Indian growth story is a long term one which is here to stay. As India is putting infrastructure in place things would move in India favor any correction would be chance to buy for long term investor while short term is always very difficult to predict.
What can derail India's growth?
Politics and bureaucracy should speed up reform process. India is the powerful trends of demography and urbanization: half the population is under 25 years old and 70% still live in the countryside. India needs to strengthen its infrastructure (hard and soft), reduce its stifling bureaucracy, deregulate its labour market and further develop its financial system. If it does, these two trends can help lift the economy's potential growth rate to 10%. But without reforms, these trends can become a major liability, possibly reducing potential growth to 5-6%.
Europe ended marginally lower.
Japan has opened flat.
I expect Indian markets to open flat.
Auto Industry all over the world is facing heat after sales of cars decline badly in Japan first time after 1967.
The sectors which have performed worst this year are Real Estate, Banking and Auto, according to me. I think Auto Ind. May face more heat ahead.
The support for the Sensex is 9531-9328 and the resistance to the up move is at 9690
Nifty: (2917) the support for the Nifty is at 2876 and the resistance to the up move is at 2960
Intraday Ideas.
Unitech
Buy above 38.40 for targets of 40.60 and 43.60
Sell below 35.70 for targets of 33.25 and 31.10
DLF
Buy above 293.90 for targets of 298 and 304
Sell below 285.50 for targets of 280 and 276
Sterlite Ind.
Buy above 258 for targets of 261 and 265
Sell below 242 for targets of 238 and 235
Sell NTPC below 176 SL 181 Target 173-170
Buy BHARTIAiRTL above 685 SL 692 Target 675-664
Buy GTOFFSHORE above 217 SL 211 Target 226-233
Buy HEROHONDA above 819 SL 811 Target 823-831
Buy ICICBANK above 448 SL 436 Target 456-471
NIFTY FUTURE
BELOW 2924 TARGET 2876-2841-2801
Nifty has crossed 3100 level in two consecutive day (19 & 22 Dec) but unable to close above that level and started coming down in last three consecutive days. Which is clearly suggesting that there is no steam left as of now for Bull in the market. In addition to this on weekly chart Nifty is now below last week’s low i.e. 2918 and it has formed long black candle which also suggest bear rally to continue in near term also. Last four days move has totally changed the trend of the market from Bullish to Bearish. I would like to go short rather than long here (Positional Long only above 3118) only hope for long is much awaited second stimulus package in coming days may boost sentiments.
Conclusion For Day trade on 26 – December – 2008
Sell Nifty below 2918 with Sl 2955 Target 2860 - 2850
Buy Nifty above 2955 with Sl 2918 Target 2995-3015
Conclusion For Positional Trade
Positional Sell only below 2800
Positional Buy only above 3118
My personal view is that we should concentrate on day trade only with minimal stop losses because in coming week volatility will remain on high as compare to previous week so going for positional trade is not a safe bet.
NSE Index (C-2916.85) Resistance : 2930 / 2955 / 2980 / 3000 / 3020-30 / 3095 Support : 2890 / 2860 / 2845 / 2805-795 BSE Sensex (C-9568.72) : Buying Expecting Once SENSEX Starts Trading Above 9660 , Till Then Be Stock Specific Only. Resistance : 9575 / 9625-650 / 9685 / 9725-45 / 9830 Support : 9495 / 9440-425 / 9370 / 9285 / 9205 Nifty Future (C-2913.35) Resistance : 2930 / 2950-65 / 2990 / 3005 / 3025 Support : 2890 / 2865 Bank Future (C-4910.50) Resistance : 4965 / 5020 Support : 4880 / 4825 / 4745 MKT COMMENTS NIFTY FUT OI up 32.57% with 17% increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions. For Intraday up move, NIFTY SPOT need to sustain above 2960 levels. Nifty has crossed 3100 level in two consecutive day (19 & 22 Dec) but unable to close above that level and started coming down in last three consecutive days. Which is clearly suggesting that there is no steam left as of now for Bull in the market. In addition to this on weekly chart Nifty is now below last week’s low i.e. 2918 and it has formed long black candle which also suggest bear rally to continue in near term also. Last four days move has totally changed the trend of the market from Bullish to Bearish. I would like to go short rather than long here (Positional Long only above 3130) only hope for long is much awaited second stimulus package in coming days may boost sentiments. Opening is Flat to Up, Stay Long Above 2945,Sl Below 2925,Tgt 2960-2985-3000-3015-3035, Sustain Below 2905,Sell with Sl Above 2925,Tgt 2885-2860-2840-2810. ACCUMULATE IFCI Buy LICHSGFIN Above 225-230 Buy TATASTEEL Above 220,Tgt 225-227-230+,Sl 215 Buy STAR Above 88,Tgt 95-98-100,Sl 85 Buy BOB Above 265,Tgt 275-285- 310,Sl 260 Buy HPCL Above 280,Tgt 285-290-295-30,Sl 277 Buy VSNL Above 510,Tgt 520-530-535,Sl 505 Sell ZEETELE Below 135,Tgt 130-125-120,Sl 138 Sell ONGC Below 666,Tgt 655-635-630,Sl 675 Sell JPASSOCIAT Below @ 76,Tgt 74-70-65,Sl 79 Sell ROLTA Below 120,Tgt 115-110++,Sl 125 Sell BHARTI Below 680,Tgt 675-660,Sl 690 SHORT TERM DELIVERY : Hot Picks ( CHRISTMAS GIFTS ) Buy GVK POWER,Around Rs.11-13 JANUARY FUTURE Buy TATA CHEMICALS Stock is Ready to Fly... BHARAT PETROLEUM(C-385.3 ) : Looking Strong Buy Around 375-380,Tgt 390-395-400-405-410-415-420+++,Sl 370 APTECH LTD (C-94.3) : Looking Strong Buy Around 90-95,Tgt 99-103+++,Support 86/78 WIPRO LTD (C-232.45) : Looking Weak Sell Around 240-238,Tgt 222+++,Resistance 250/265 Sell ITC Around 175-173,Tgt 170-165+++,Sl 180 (Positional :Sl Above 185 On Closing Basis) Free Fall Expected Sell NALCO 180-178,Sl 184,Tgt 179-178-177-174-172-170-168-165 (Lot Size 575) What a sad way to see the uptrend that was labouring to be born – dying. Slowly – one by one all indicators are giving way to the onslaught of the bears. I feel sad – there was definitely a steam in this move – but it just does not seem to work out. The markets in Asia are nothing to talk about. Nikkei up and Hang Seng was mildly in red. Europe too was red. FTSE 0.93% red, Dax was closed and CAC was down 0.39%. There is bleak economic picture in US as the new data comes in – what would you e The candles have left the upper edge of bollinger bands and that is not goo.this is fourth black candle by the way.we are below the 5 EMA and going below the 20 EMA. We never crossed above the 50 EMA. Volumes were low. MACD divergence has reduced. RSI going bearish Slow Stochastic bad and TRIX pausing – it may start looking down. Oooof ! that itself is hell of a lot. Pivot data…
Buy CESC LTD,Around Rs.185-95
Buy JP ASSOCIATES,Around Rs.50
Expect some Good News &
UnExpected Movement on Card..
Target 165 & 175 on Card , Sl Below 145 On Closing Basis
R3 3036 against 3123 on yesterday
R2 2996
R1 2956
Pivot 2928 against 2988 on yesterday
S1 2888
S2 2860
S3 2820 against 2853 on yesterday
Projected High Range 2942 to 2976
Projected Low Range 2960 to 2926
Fib Projected High 2986
Fib Projected Low 2881
Sensex fell to 7,800 from 14,000 in few sessions after the collapse of Lehman brothers. Biggest problem with current crisis is the speed of the spread and depth of the impact. Another problem is “no one knows about the magnitude of the effect.” In this dynamic scenario, it is waste to talk about long term impact. So, let us talk about short to medium term impact and how investors react in panic.
In September-October, 2008: Sensex moved from 14,000 to 7,800 – ultimate panic reaction in recent time. It means Sensex commanded a valuation of just 9 in the extreme panic environment. We can take it as ultimate bottom level.
What are the future bottom levels for Sensex if it commands a valuation of 9?
1. Basing on Q2 results (October, 2008), Sensex will be at 8,600-8,800. But many companies will announce poor results in the next quarter.
2. Basing on Q3 results (January-February, 2009), Sensex will be at 7,000-7,400 (my estimate). It may vary according to Q3 results. Then Sensex will see some bounce back before Q4 results will come out which will further disappoint investors.
3. Basing on Q4 results (March-April, 2009), Sensex will be at 5,800-6,000 (my estimate). It is waste to think beyond that in this dynamic economic environment which is changing almost on weekly basis. If things improve before that quarter, I will update in the blog.
Image courtesy: subcontinent.com
All these estimates are basing on the assumption that Stock markets always overreact to economic news and fundamentals (October, 2008 experience). If war clouds will strengthen in the next few weeks, Sensex will collapse to 6,000 levels by January end. As an investor, I will buy stocks like BEML which will get new orders in the war environment. Our leaders will be busy with Loksabha elections from February onwards. Anyway, economy will take back seat in the next few months despite worsening situation due to war and elections. Mean while our IT and Real estate chiefs will continue to try to fool us through their routine statements.
5 worst slogans in the last 5 quarters:
1. Q3 FY2007-08: “India is decoupled from global economy.” Sensex was at 20,000.
2. Q4 FY2007-08: “India has strong fundamentals and Indian growth story will continue.” Sensex was at 16,500.
3. Q1 FY2008-09: “World credit crisis will not affect us.” Sensex was at 14,000.
4. Q2 FY2008-09: “Indian GDP will continue to grow at 8% and stock markets are overreacting.” Sensex was at 12,600.
5. Q3 FY2008-09: “Sensex included all the negative economic news.” Sensex was at 10,000.
Worst theories and statements:
Financial analysts who take millions of salaries need to come out with some “romantic theories” to save their jobs and reputation.
1. Oil to $200
2. India decoupling theory
3. BRIC nations will save world economy
4. Obama will save America
5. China will continue to grow
6. Indian is in best position to benefit from global turmoil
7. Outsourcing will increase due to economic slow down
8. Rural economy in India will continue to grow
9. Indian middle class consumption power
10. Fall in inflation and oil will save Indian economy.
All these myths about world and Indian economy will be busted in the next few months. Are you still in illusion? Don’t forget that we are living in the globalised economy but we are not Eskimos living in Igloos at Alaska.
Status about current economy in simple terms:
1. Auto sector: Toyota Company reported first operating loss in 70 years. Honda sold its F1 team. Maruti dealers are in complete mess due to rise in inventories.
2. Gold sales: This is another indicator on the consumption power of people. Gold sales have fallen by 50% in 2008 over 2007. Fall in gold sales for the past 3 months is much worse.
3. Indian GDP: It was expected to grow at 10-11% in FY 2009-10 (1 year back estimate). Indian GDP is now expected to grow at 4.5-5% in FY2009-10.
4. China GDP: It was expected to grow at 11-13% in FY 2009-10 (1 year back estimate). China GDP is now expected to grow at 5.5-6.5% in FY2009-10.
5. Brazil GDP: It was expected to grow at 6-7% in FY 2009-10 (1 year back estimate). Brazil GDP is now expected to grow at 2-2.5% in FY2009-10.
6. Russia GDP: It was expected to grow at 8-9% in FY 2009-10 (1 year back estimate). Russia GDP is now expected to grow at 1-2% in FY2009-10.
7. World GDP: It was expected to grow at 3-4% in FY 2009-10 (1 year back estimate). It is now expected to register negative growth in FY2009-10.
8. Canada: Everyone thought that Canada is the only developed nation that will escape from global recession. But Canada recently entered into recession along with United States, England, European Nations, Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore.
9. Manufacturing companies are planning to cut production by 50% in the next 3 months.
If you can translate these statistics into real impact on our lives, it will give you real idea about future growth prospects. Stock market rallies will continue trap innocent investors to take bad decisions. Current crisis is not as bad as 1930 depression but much worse than 1970 recession.
Top 5 stocks in 2008:
1. Hindustan lever
2. Godrej Consumer
3. Nestle
4. Colgate
5. Procter and Gamble.
Worst performers in 2008:
1. Asian Electronics
2. Prajay Engineers
3. Orbit Corporations
4. IOL Netcom
5. Jai Corporation
6. Lok Housing
Poor corporate Governance:
3 companies that fooled investors in the last 1 week: Satyam Computers, JP Associates and SRF.
Click here to read more about 15 stocks that may shock you.
Investors should prepare for more such shocks in the next few months as economic environment will deteriorate, companies will either default or resort to bad practices. I have no hopes on either SEBI or exchanges. I was surprised by the Maytas stock performance over the last 2 months when great companies like Larsen and Toubro and Punj Lloyd corrected by 50%, Maytas actually grew by 20%. It means some big investors actually knew about “Satyam deal.” SEBI and exchanges should reveal the details of Maytas Infra stock buyers in the last 3 months who kept it till the last week. Closely watch out for Satyam meeting on December 29. Will Ramalinga Raju resign? Will IBM/Oracle buy Raju stake? If both rumours are true, both Satyam and Maytas stocks will give you 50-70% returns in the next 10 days. If December 29 meeting fails to come out with concrete solution, Satyam stock will fall to below 100 levels.
My advice: stay away from FMCG stocks. We don’t need to invest in the stocks for 10-15% returns. It is better to keep money in fixed deposits instead of investing money in FMCG stocks. FMCG stocks are giving positive returns as money from HNIs moved into them as defensive strategy. They will actually give you negative returns if market conditions improve on later date. If you are a new investor, just sit on cash until we get a clear picture.
Final advice: If you are a new investor, please stay away from stock markets for another 6 months. It is not an investors’ market. You will get many good stocks at throw away prices by that time. I will update in the blog when conditions will improve due to these stimulus packages. My predictions may look as foolish statements over short term but you will find the ultimate truth. Just imagine the impact on our economy when Indian GDP will grow at 5% in FY2009-10 which was growing at more than 9% in FY2007-08. 2009 will be the worst year for real economy. It is easy to say in words but actual pain is unbearable.
Another big mistake: Current crisis needs globally co-ordinated stimulus package. But countries are repeating the same mistake they did in 1970’s. Each country is just trying to stimulate its own economy even though it adversely impacts the economy of other countries.
Ex. China’s lowering of its currency to improve exports and saving of inefficient American auto companies and Obama’s strategy of creating jobs in America by imposing taxes on outsourced companies.
These steps will actually shrink global economy instead of actually stimulating it. Unless G-20 leaders take coordinated decisions, we will actually see painful 2010 due to these stimulus packages.
Read this paragraph from Business Standard:
“If the US, Europe and Japan contract at 2% in 2009, and other non-BRICs show no growth, the BRICs would have to grow by 11% or so to keep world growth out of negative territory. The simple truth is that BRICs are still too small to be global locomotors unless they sustain double digit growth, which they manifestly can’t in the present environment. Of course, the fact that the Asian BRICs are still expected to enjoy moderate growth in 2009 is itself testimony to their resilience in the face of global recession. But decoupled they are not”.
Lesson: BRICs need to grow at 11% to save world economy but they are expected to grow at 4% in 2009-10. Who will save world economy? Who will save us from job losses?
About electric vehicles market:
This market grew by 500% in the last 4 years and it expected to grow by another 300% in the next 3 years. Closely watch this sector.
Stocks in that sector: Tube Investments, Electrotherm, Hero group and TVS group. Closely watch Tube Investments and is a safe buy below 30 level for long term.
As an investor, I don't like wars but I want war with Pakistan as an Indian citizen. But lack of great leadership is now crippling India both economically and politically. That's why I am bearish on our economy.
Indians are more optimistic about their economy in the recent economic survey. See the image.
Image courtesy: Pew Research Centre.
Regarding donations:
Those who wish to donate can send money to ICICI Bank account number: 007501035472. Branch: S.R. Nagar, Hyderabad. Donation is not an obligation but recognition of hard work. Both my blog posts and mobile alerts are free services. Thanks to Google free hosting service.
Latest Stock market news:
1. Infosys will announce Q3 results on January 13.
2. Navbharat buy back price is Rs 170.
3. MMTC is in close talks to work in association with Maytas.
4. Varhaman Textiles will buy back FCCBs.
5. Indo-Pak war situation intensified across the border.
6. Job losses increased in the Silicon Valley. HP, AMD and Cisco extnded holidays for the first time.
7. BHEL, BEL and BEML are the stocks to watch out for in the coming days.
8. Elections may improve sentiment in the Vakranghee Software counter in the next month.
Read my blog on Mobile at: http://indiashares.mobi/
Top news interest stories in the last 3 months in USA:
1. Conditions of US economy.
2. Wall street bail out.
3. Major drops in U.S Stock markets.
4. U.S Presidential election.
5. Rising unemployment.
Economy dominated news stories in 2008 and will continue to do so in 2009.
Wish you a happy and prosperous new year.
Sensex has broken the channel and closed below it so the momentum on upside should clearly slow down but the move has not been with sharp volumes so the downside also remains subdued till we dont give a close below 9000-9200 zone.
Continue with the wait and watch approach and keep watching the levels for how markets react.
Stocks to watchout for :
Balrampur Chini and renuka sugars seeing some buying interest but not able to breakout. Traders can keep a watch on these stocks.
The stock chart seems to suggest they are waiting for direction so would prefer to wait for some triggers before taking the next trades. If any further updates possible will put it on google sms channel --
For some sms updates
http://labs.google.co.in/smschannels/subscribe/AnalyseIndia .Go to the link and subscribe to the channel. or To subscribe using your phone, SMS 'ON AnalyseIndia' to 9870807070. Use the channel and pass it to others for quick free sms.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
The Satyam issue continues to linger on..... Although the management has been doing lot of mischief it seems the time is up for the directors to go ! and something else to happen... On the balance sheet looks exciting at 140-110 with great amount of cash on hand... Discussed in last post. Buying was advised at 140 and 120 the stock is back to 135 + and the approach is to pyramid ur position.
Now another observation clearly shows the intentions of the top management !!!
As per the insider trading disclosure the
Satyam Computer Services Ltd A S Murthy 16/12/2008 S 19000
Satyam Computer Services Ltd V Murali 16/12/2008 S 20000
The company people sold the stock a day before the announcement and in good qty of their holding !!! Maybe some SEBI action would be taken or needs to be sent to the regulatory bodies.
Anyways the personal view on the stock remains a good bet around 140-110 purely because of the cash holding and decent business and there would ideally be lot of face saving moves which could give decent returns. Also keeping in mind the risk involved with equities the risk-reward fits but one needs to check personal risk apetite and book profits on rise to insulate and conserve gains.
Yet another observation is LIC has been continously increasing stakes in PUS banks in the period of Oct to Dec . Recent disclosure in Vijaya Bank. Others too.
GMR holdings increasing stake in GMR infra for last few weeks... Many such disclosures may give good hints in coming months... Keep tracking ... Difficult to make a consolidation !!! 
Dow Jones :
After the fed push above 8800 the index could not sustain those levels and got resisted around the upper trendline. This line needs to be crossed with volumes for a clear direction. As volumes are very low and near to support so next few sessions would be crucial.
On the downside 8250-8300 zone is a support sustaining below which could endanger the chart formation and lead to testing of sub 8k zones.
SO lets see whether a santa rally is in store or a new year cracker.
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