Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NEWSLETTER

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OnMobile Ltd, Aftek, Syndicate Bank and Sasken Communications look technically strong and are worth keeping on the watch list.


SYNDICATE
BANK

BSE Code : 532276 (66.35)
Now, Buy Around, 66 TO 66.20 , SL 63.10 , Target Looks 68.90 to 70+

Lanco Infratech has received a contract of Rs 309 crores from AP govt for setting up of Rajiv Gandhi University of Knowledge Technologies.

We recommend a sell in Jet Airways India from a short-term horizon. It is clearly visible from the charts of Jet Airways that after recording its life low at Rs 308 in early July the stock was on a medium-term uptrend till the September 8 high at Rs 567. On September 17, the stock conclusively penetrated the key support level Rs 500 and the medium-term up trendline by tumbling 9 per cent. Subsequently, the stock continued to decline breaching the 50-day moving average. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is featuring in the bearish zone and the weekly RSI has entered into this zone. Moreover, the daily moving average convergence and divergence has entered the negative territory.

Our short-term forecast for the stock is bearish. We expect the stock’s current downtrend to prolong until it hits our price target of Rs 375 in the upcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 440

Here is a verbatim transcript of Investor and Trader, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s exclusive interview with Mitali Mukherjee on CNBC TV18’s Wealth Creators show. Also watch the accompanying video.

Bigger bull run yet to come: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Click here to read the full article.
Click here to watch the video.

Sesa Goa is one of the leading stock in the category of the mining/minerals sector.Though NMDC , GMDC , Maharastra Electrosmelt all being PSU Company belongs to the same sector.The stock has been quite volatile from Rs 220 it fell off to Rs 110 or there about , shedding off nearly 50% and it has bounced back now.The best days were probably in 2006 and 2007, the stock was star performer.Iron ore could not put a foot wrong. But now I suspect that every incremental bit of news will drag down Sesa Goa.

Sesa Goa is supported at lower levels at Rs 100-105-110 levels. It should not go too much below those levels because of valuation reasons but on the way up, even if there is a sporadic pullback rallies and it goes to Rs 140 kind of levels you will see pressure coming in.

So it may not be a stock which collapses because of valuations and the balance sheet but I suspect that the bull market here is over and you will probably see the stock consigned to a range of may be Rs 105-110 to Rs 140-150 on the way up. And it will keep tossing up and down depending on what the global commodities are doing within that trading range. Any fresh holding in this this stock need a second thought.

Sensex Technical View :
Not a consequential day as we have seen after a pullback or dip we see a couple of such sessions. Sensex 13300 and 14300-14500 on upside is the rough range only above or below which one can look to see some concrete and quick moves. Continue to be stock specific and look for over corrected fundamentally sound stocks.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

Crude :
Continues to face resistance at 110 levels and a dip to 98-102 should see support.

Gold :
905-910 zone remains a crucial resistance till it doesnt cross that a dip to 875-865 shud see support. Above 905-910 it can rush to 930-950 zone which is the cap on upside for medium term.

Stocks to watchout for :

Cement stocks like ACC , Guj Ambuja seem to be firming up on charts and traders can keep a watch if some volumes seen. Rolta bounces a bit from 255-260 hold on.

Axis Bank buy above 725 for a quick 5 % move . or sell below 680 .



Today being the expiry day, we may not trade, or do a trade only when things are very clear.

I feel nifty will trade mostly below 4196. and can fall up to 4130 levels.

for upmove, yesterday we made a high of 4228, and i dont expect nifty to cross this level for intraday.trade small volume and book small (20 points) profits is the mantra for the day.


Nifty :: As per our yesterday post Nifty find strong support at bottom near 4110.. Now for 25th Sep. 4110 works as make or break level.. Above 4110 our strategy buy on deep sell at high (S.L 4226).. Below 4110 sell at high buy on dip (S.L 4052).. At higher level 4226 & 4240 works as momentum level, once break 4226/4240 momentum turns strong for next expire..Till then be a stock specific and avoid to give any long or short commitment for next treading day..(Watch break out level 4240 and break down level 4110) Resistance for up move at 4184/4191/4226/4240/4308.. Supports 4110/4052/3992..


The Indian market opened on gap-up and saw choppy session but managed to close in green zone . For coming session 4145 is support levels on upside 4212 -4244 will act as resistances zone .Breaking below 4140 it can test 4104 levels

The Nifty remained range bound today. After opening with a slight positive gap it went up a little further but shortly before 1pm, it started its downward journey. Around 3pm, after it recorded its low of the day, a little bit of recovery came about, especially in the last 30 minutes, which helped the Nifty close with a gain of about 34 points. International cues too do not suggest anything. Asian markets closed flat with a slight positive bias while European markets had a slight negative bias in them. American markets, at the moment stand completely unchanged and the Dow Jones, till now today, has had a small intraday movement of about 100 points. Crude is flat too and is currently trading near $105.

Nifty 30 Minutes Chart - Contracting Triangle with Straight Bottom, MACD suggests indecision Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. As can be seen, the Nifty is making a pattern of a right angled triangle with a straight bottom. The prices, for the last four days have been contracting within this triangle. Such straight bottom triangles are essentially bearish patterns but my experience tells me that with them the direction cannot be predicted. The best way would be to wait to let the prices break out of the triangle and we then take a position in the direction of the triangle. For tomorrow, the levels are between 4115 and 4200. Buy above 4200 or sell below 4115. If the pattern is broken on the downside, then we could have a target of 3990 on the charts.

At the moment, the MACD is hovering around zero and the MACD line is moving so close to its signal line that it suggests a lot of confusion and indecision in the markets. And obviously, a contracting triangle and trend channels, in themselves, are signs of confusion.


HDFC Sec_Preferred Picks.pdf
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Top picks PPT - Sep 2008.pdf

225K View as HTML Download

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