Hope all njoyed yday mor alert axis bank and kotak bank short
Today beml above 774 rocket and sunpharma have an eye any time rocket
Bye,
We recommend a ‘buy’ in Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) from a short-term perspective. It is apparent from the charts that the company has been on a medium-term uptrend from early July low of Rs 388, that was also a 52-week low. The stock has been trending up shaping higher peaks and higher troughs since then. In early August, the stock crossed over its 50-day moving average and is currently trading well above this average. We notice high volume during the advance days of the medium-term uptrend. The daily relative strength index is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone. Moving average convergence and divergence is rising in line with the stock and is featuring in the positive area. The medium-term up trendline is also intact. We are bullish on the stock from a short-term perspective. We anticipate the stock to rally until it hits our price target of Rs 650 in the forthcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 560.
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| We are giving below the Important Support and Resistance Levels of few most actively traded scrips of NSE/BSE (including F&O). Many Traders successfully use Support/ Resistance levels for day- trading. Traders are advised to read the Disclaimer and Rules for Successful trading & apply Stop Loss on all trades. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Sensex Technical View :
Sensex continus to play in the range of 14000 - 14800 with nothing major for a move . Technically the congestion period now should give a breakout above 14800 or 14000 in next few sessions and traders can keep a close watch as such a move could tgt 15500 or 13700/13300 which may give good trading opportunities. Technically the bias remains towards the positive and a shot to 15500 seems more probable .
Crude Technical View :
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPM2VmNa9n_iLCD9t5Y8j2pjvYpPLi5LBalb49EF4uR2OwjXWnYAI543uBtHJjBHWo-PM5wrG0bojqaAnjc99jg9anmdd-tuS2bp-3QxFXUYm2gS3IbqxgkjJmO3Ya8l9tsLAqXAsjUOw/s1600-h/CRUDELINES.png
http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2008/07/crude-as-expected-does-tgt-of-126.html
The earlier views were clear at 140 levels of a tgt of 110 after a brief pull up from 124-126 zones.
Which we saw to have happened clearly !! .
Now few days back it was mentioned a pull up from 112 shud go till 122-124 range and bang on we again see a correction to 110 levels . All these are based on technicals and fibonacci retracements . Will soon put up a chart how technicals played out exactly.
View Now :
None of the pullbacks after the crack from 140s have lasted beyond 61 % of the downward dip. Such a pattern is generally seen in a bear phase and deep corrections from tops. Such a pattern suggests a fall to 108/105/98 which may see intermediate pulls though. On a longer term basis it is dicy to decide whether the current correction could go to 110 ( 61 % of rally from 85 to 145 ) or 85 which would be the base from where it started and correction of the whole rally from 40 to 145 ! . Will look into those possibilities through crude charts in the week.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
Another newlisting Resurgere Minerals comes in on the bourses and is up 100 % even after being subscribed 1.15 % . Isnt it amazing that nobody wanted to apply at 270 but ready to take it at 500 !! . Delivery % today was 6 % traded volumes 3 crs dint check the equity size though, but clean move frm 300 to 560 in the day amazing ! ..... On valuations seems costlier then Sesa goa also !!! ... Well all that can be said punt on the first few days in newlistings take the moolah n forget the stock ! or u will have to remember that forever ! :) ... I dunno much abt the stock fundas but investors better do adequate research !
Some earlier ones -- Aishwarya 135 high now 25 , Niraj high 240 now 55 r recent examples we had .
The recent FNO additions r seeing good buildup and the liquid ones like K S oils , GSPL , Everonn systems etc and others may seem some move up in coming days.
Stocks to watchout for :
Traders can watch the following stocks n buy on crossovers for a quick 3-8 % trade .
Kotak Mahindra Bank above 610 , Reliance infra above 1010 , Rolta above 345.
Significant Positive trigger: Huge opportunities in WEEE (Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment).
Infotrek Syscom stock price analysis:
CMP: 29.50 (BSE)
P/E: 12
1 Year high-low: 134-23
Book value: 20
Infotrek Syscom target price:
1 Year target: 60-70 (EPS of 6).
Ideal investment duration: 2-3 years to reap full benefits.
Why Infotrek is a must buy for long term:
1. Good results in the June quarter. Good improvement in profit margins. EPS is expected to rise to 6 in FY09 from FY08 EPS of 2.
2. Infotrek Syscom is a zero debt company which is a good thing in these high interest days.
3. Waste management has huge business prospects. Company will post huge growth in sales in the next two years due to its recent expansion plans.
4. Steep correction in the stock from 134 to 23 in the recent meltdown.
5. Infotrek stock is looking cheap on forward earnings basis (forward P/E of 5). It once commanded a valuation of 65 during Bull Run in 2007.
6. Infotrek Syscom signed an agreement with Madhya Pradesh Government for setting up recycling plants in Madhya Pradesh for plastic & electronic waste.
7. Infotrek is a member of many reputed e-waste management associations like International Association of Electronics Recyclers (IAER).
Final verdict: Infotrek Syscom is the only major organised player in the waste management sector in India which was dominated by unorganised players. Its new facility will come into operation from June, 2009 onwards. Next few years will see rise in awareness about waste management and Infotrek will play significant role in this emerging sector. Long term investors should buy Infotrek Syscom and forget about it for 3-4 years to get maximum benefits. Increase in awareness about polution and environment is another positive aspect.
Note: Many investors requested me to decrease the minimum investment amount from Rs 50,000. I am heeding to their request and reducing the minimum investment amount to Rs 20,000 for the benefit of small investors. Small investors can utilise this opportunity. I am urging the readers to send me more suggestions regarding my investment offers.
The markets played a deceptive role and again turned tide to trap the bears.
Technically the markets are still above the crucial levels of 14005 on sensex and 4205 on nifty.
As long as this levels are held , markets will see a certain bounce close to this levels.
The supports for the nifty is at 4250 levels and resistance at 4450 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14200 levels and resistance at 14800 levels
Moreover with the falling crude , which due to the change of retrograde Saturn is likely to fall below 100 $ and probably more ..but when…..?
We see a major turning point in equities soon…? Up or down
A very big deceptive move is coming , which will make every one wondering , reasons censored
With the global commodity and asset class falling in the grip of a structural bear tone…the tide will sooner be in the favour of equities.
As an investor class , commodities can be more cheaper, so those interested in bullion must wait for lower levels, traders and speculators don’t follow the tide.
As we are nearing the elections at the center , what can we expect , we expect the inflation to come near 8% .
Every political party will try to convince the innocent public, though some of the current inflation figures look manipulative.
Opposite forces works against each other and sometimes together , incase of inflation , some one is manipulating figures , any how will find top soon.
There is never a fundamental change in any economy in 6 months , all the theories of gloom , doom , boom , recession etc has a economic cycle.
There is certainly a technical disturbance which every economy has to face , so are we..
So media must not term it as fundamental imbalance , nor is there any hurdle in growth of companies..
This is the nature of markets and marketmen.
Stocks to watch
With the change of position in saturn - shipping stocks , two wheeler stocks , pharma goods will be in lime lite for some days
From a weak market...suddenly September seems to be brightening and strong. Market is looking bullish to say the least. Possible upmove now. Watch the charts for details. On daily charts see the stochastics indicator turning upwards now..on the 5 min future charts we see increasing volumes also. All pointing to bullishness. Lets see how this span...we can play the long side for sometime now. Maybe until 4600.
Indication of strong opening today
As expected nifty opened weak inline with cues taken from world markets and then bounced back in later stages and on global cues,Hurricane Gustav's effect was not alarming as expected and also precautionary measures had been taken well in advance this time around and due to this effect of weekening of hurricane- Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell $4.34 to $111.12 in late afternoon electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.The Dow Jones industrial average was up 171.63 to close at 11,543.55. For today, Nifty will face hurdle around 4385 and failure to cross may invite selling from higher levels again and the supports on downside are at 4320 and 4280.Tomorrow is a trading holiday and so trade with caution.
Stock watch for the day:
Punjab LLoyd (310)-Buy this stock with stop loss 303 for target 318-323
Buy Aries Agro - Target 133 - Within One Month
Buy Elder Pharma - Target 352 - Within One Month
The Indian market opened on weak note on back of global cues and saw further dip in noon session .Market saw smart recovery at the end trading session and close with marginal losses .For coming session if nifty traded above 4335 we can test 4370 – 4410 levels on the lower side 4280 will act as strong support zone .The hearty welcome to Subba Rao to the helm of affairs at RBI to give a jubilant growth oriented financial directions to Indian economy.
The markets are good to hold above the immediate support level at 4280 level. The markets are likely to get more room to go upward as the resistance is decreasing. The SGX Nifty is now trading flat at 4370 with positive bias. The Hang Seng is struggling to stay above positive territory by 5 points but the Nikkei is in positive territory with 60 points up.
The markets move now will be determined by the global equity movements. The local news triggers are now company specific. The Suzlon buy in RE power reaches to 90% stake- the stock is good above 220 level and has bottom support at 208 and at 203.
The long drawn dispute went in favour of RCOM with Tata Communications may give some boost to the sagging stock price to float above 393 level, good above 406-05 weak below 381.
The fall in crude prices may dampen the Cairn but will help the BPCL, HPCL and the aviation sector.
The Tata Steel plans to buy the mine reserves may help the stock to move up as a temporary relief, good above 591 and may move to 640 level in line with the market movement.
The banking sector especially the SBI is good above 1375 level and can be considered that the markets lost the steam if it falls below 1340 level. For today, good above 1408-06 level may touch 1460 level.
The ICICI bank is good above 672 level and weak below 659 level, likely to touch 720 level in the coming days. The Relcap is struggling to cross the resistance at 1420-40 range which may live for some more time. It is good above 1380 level but weak below 1349 level.
The DLF could cross the 491 resistance may touch 540 level for today it has resistance at 509-11 level and once 515 resistance crossed may rally to 540 level.
The JP is good above 163 level and weak below 159 level.
Shankar Sharma of First Global said that overall trend in market is still down and the rally from 12,500-15,000 is over and done with. He feels that the sharp oil price correction is likely and India will be a big beneficiary from the same. According to him, India will benefit from fund reallocation in Emerging Markets, or EMs if crude cracks. He feels that the markets may slip to 10,000 levels this year or early next year and may then start moving up gradually over next three years. He sees the Sensex bottom within the 10,000-12,500 range. He believes that the market could double from lows but that may be short-lived.
According to him, valuations of BHEL, L&T is still expensive. He doubts further stellar returns from SBI and feels that the rally is over. RIL may drive the next leg of fall in the market and could test levels substantially below Rs 2,000 per share, he said. He doesn't see much downside for IT from current levels.
Sharma said, "Nothing has really changed. The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead. Overall the trend is down punctuated by the rallies we keep seeing. When I say bull market, I mean taking out the highs and continuing to the path of 25000 and beyond. Markets could reach 18000-19000 - that rally is still to be played out. So, markets can double from lows but that still won't be a bull market. It will coincide with crude having come off, some talk of political certainty because inflation has cooled off. That rally will propel markets close to 20,000 but I doubt if that will be so quick. Crude has to come off substantially at USD 80-85 per barrel. Our case is it will and may take 12 months to get to the USD 50 per barrel levels. Crude may rally 10-20% from its lows. When it hits USD 50 per barrel, you will see India begin to come back on its own."
overall trend in market is still down and the rally from 12,500-15,000 is over and done with. He feels that the sharp oil price correction is likely and India will be a big beneficiary from the same. According to him, India will benefit from fund reallocation in Emerging Markets, or EMs if crude cracks. He feels that the markets may slip to 10,000 levels this year or early next year and may then start moving up gradually over next three years. He sees the Sensex bottom within the 10,000-12,500 range. He believes that the market could double from lows but that may be short-lived.
According to him, valuations of BHEL, L&T is still expensive. He doubts further stellar returns from SBI and feels that the rally is over. RIL may drive the next leg of fall in the market and could test levels substantially below Rs 2,000 per share, he said. He doesn't see much downside for IT from current levels.
Sharma said, "Nothing has really changed. The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead. Overall the trend is down punctuated by the rallies we keep seeing. When I say bull market, I mean taking out the highs and continuing to the path of 25000 and beyond. Markets could reach 18000-19000 - that rally is still to be played out. So, markets can double from lows but that still won't be a bull market. It will coincide with crude having come off, some talk of political certainty because inflation has cooled off. That rally will propel markets close to 20,000 but I doubt if that will be so quick. Crude has to come off substantially at USD 80-85 per barrel. Our case is it will and may take 12 months to get to the USD 50 per barrel levels. Crude may rally 10-20% from its lows. When it hits USD 50 per barrel, you will see India begin to come back on its own."
My Comments:
SS use to say in past that I wouldn't like to speak the levels.Now he talks with levels....
I don't understand when he says,
" The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead."
when he himself says that Oil can come to $50 in a year.....I think he doesn't mean it will come down to that level in 3 months(last 3 months).Crude if he says can come down to $50 then it will come down gradually.....and when he discuss the recent sets of no of GDP, he forgets that these are figures of $140 crude and not even $115 crude.....and as we all know market use to discount bad news and its effects 6 months ahead as we saw in last 6 months, market will also start discounting good news 6 months ahead...
Actually I am not able to understand what he means by saying ......"We don't know what lies ahead..." if crude is going to come down which is seen even after the the Gustav Tornado in USA which would have create a cascanding effect and would have took the crude to above $150-160 levels....but instead crude tanked by over $4...then the slow down world over and inflation is going to come down in next 6 months......then how SS is questioning ......"What lies ahead?......whatever lies ahead is going to be better then last 6 months.......that is what can be derived from the crude tanking........it is ofcourse is the biggest reason for the markets to go in tail spin......
If market discounts bad news 6 months ahead , about bad results and poor GDP and IIP nos which we saw from 21k to 12500 ,then market should and will discount good news 6 months ahead......
Let us see, how market discounts .......good news!but if market is going to discount good news 6 months early...then we should see no more leg down below 12500......
It will be very interesting to see from where markets starts discounting the good news ,from Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec or .......when..(fill in the blanks)..............
Scrip: - Praj Industry.
CMP: - 172
BSE Code: - 522205
52 Week H/L: - 273.45 - 100.15
Market Cap: - 3147.01
Target: - 350 (Only for Long term investors - 2 Years view.)
World Economic Forum (WEF) have bought out a list of 200 growth companies out of which 22 companies are from India. These companies generally considered as having potential to change the global economic landscape. Praj Industry stands at 6th in the Indian List.
Summary: -
Pune-based Praj Industries is an engineering company and is the market leader in ethanol technology. It provides turnkey project implementation services to set up ethanol distillation units. The company has developed technologies to produce ethanol from a variety of feedstock such as sugarcane, sweet sorghum, corn etc and is trying to develop a commercially viable method to convert cellulose into ethanol.Besides ethanol - which accounts for over 80% of its revenues - the company also carries out distillation for breweries and plans to enter the bio-diesel space.
Praj has executed projects in over 35 countries. Over the past couple of years, it has taken steps to strengthen its global presence. These include an acquisition in the US and tie-ups with foreign companies in Europe and Brazil. With this, the company has established its presence in key markets across the world.
Key Financials: -
Praj's net profit has witnessed a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.2% over the past 10 years, while its net sales have grown by 27.3%.
At the current market price of Rs 132.10, the scrip is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) of 19.8 based on its earnings in the past 12 months, which is nearly half its P/E just a couple of months ago. Considering Praj's current order book, ability to win new orders and investment in research & development, we expect the company to maintain its EBIDTA margins above 20%. For FY09, we expect Praj to report earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 10.1 .
Key Negative: -
The shareholding of the promoters and public has fallen, while institutional holding is on the rise.
Technicals are not in favour.
Key Positive: -
Ethanol and bio-diesel are gaining acceptance worldwide as eco-friendly fuels. Ethanol blending has already become mandatory for petrol in a number of countries, including its largest consumer, the US. The proportion of blending is slated to go up, with governments in the US and India mandating 10% blending over the next 2-4 years.
The company already has an order book of Rs 900 crore, which will be executed over the next 12 months. Praj is gearing up to cater to the fastpaced growth in future by expanding its capabilities. It has increased its manpower and set up its second manufacturing unit at Kandla SEZ. It has also established a full-fledged research centre for bio-fuels to develop new technologies in this field.
Bibliography: -
CHANGE OF SENTIMENTS:
The unexpected fall in the inflation data of 12.40%, changed the course of the market. Even the lower GDP growth did not bother the market. What is more even the oil price going up by two dollars did not affect the market sentiments. So strong was the buying the Sensex zoomed up by 516 points to touch 14564. There was heavy short covering in the over sold sensitive sectors like banking, real estate and auto, as the latest data showed inflation softened for the first time in 28 weeks
If there is further fall in the inflation expect the Sensex to cross 15000 mark next week. Markets seem to have discounted most of the negative factors for the time being.
LOWER GDP GROWTH:
India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.9% in the June 2008 quarter from a year earlier, easing from the previous quarter's 8.8% rise as industrial activity slowed due to monetary tightening. The GDP growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year was lower than market expectations of a rise of a little above 8%.
Market has taken it on its strides. On the contrary, all that the RBI has done so far is to bring down the rate of inflation by slowing growth. In other words, the RBI has achieved what it was striving. This is good for the market, as the RBI may not rush in to hike the rate of interst further as the growth has started slowing.
JAI CORP HITS THE UPPER CIRCUIT:
This share has been in the lime light as it belongs to a very close associate of Mukesh Ambani. According to reports, the company intends to start supply of city gas and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) to its special economic zones (SEZ) in Mumbai and Navi Mumbai. Later, it will expand its operations in other cities.
Jai Corp plans to supply gas through three subsidiaries viz. Urban Gas, Urban Gas Distribution and Urban Gas Suppliers. It will shortly seek the government’s approval for the same, the reports added.
The media report quoted Anand Jain, chairperson, Jai Corp as saying that the company has passed an enabling resolution to get into the distribution of city gas.
The share got locked up in the 5% upper circuit at Rs.324. The share is almot down by Rs.100 from its recent high of Rs.428. One big foreign investor Soros has picked up over 1% of the equity in this co.
TWO UNUSUSAL SHARES HITTING THE UPPER CIRCUITS EVERY DAY:
Earlier we have bought to your attention the details of JPT SECURITIES (BSE: 530965. Rs.239.25.) And KLG Capital :(BSE”530771. Rs.381). Both these cos. have been taken over by Nikhil Gandhi who had taken ove earlier Horizon Battery at Rs. 18 and latter alloted infra structure project to the co and named it as Horizon Infra and the NSE listed co went up to Rs.2000.
The big question, of course, is how can these companies with no fundamentals worth writing about shoot through the roof in a bearish market.
Marketmen point out that the stock floating in the market of such companies is extremely low, which makes it easy to keep the price rising.
However, there is a buzz amongst punters that the SKIL ( Sea King Infrastructure Ltd) group will transfer some of its infrastructure projects to these companies.
SWAN MILLS: (BSE: 503310. Rs.58.20): The share remained as a laggard for the whole week surprised every one when thre was a huge demand for the scrip and it hit the 5% uppercircuit with buyers for 20,000 shares and no sellers. Next week there can be some more fire works in this counter. It may test its recent high of Rs.68 once again.
MAITHAN ALLOYS :( BSE: 590078. Rs.276.45) SET FOR A BREAK OUT: In our earlier write-ups, we have given the details of this co. Inspite of having very strong fundamentals this share has not moved up. In other word, informed sources were accumulating all these days. On Friday, huge orders to buy the share found no sellers.
Panama Petro, which posted a fabulous 79% higher net profit in June Q1FY09 with quarterly EPS of Rs.14.6 is all set to garner an EPS of Rs.50 for FY09 on a tiny equity of Rs.4.8 cr. Marketmen expect a liberal bonus in the current year and the share is likely to touch Rs.200 at a conservative P/E of 4.
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