Sunday, September 21, 2008

NEWSLETTER


Sensex Technical View:
Sensex makes a strong pullback as hinted . The gap at 13900 is filled but a new gap left at 13350 . Now the current gap at 13350 becomes a very important point in days to come. Can this gap be a runaway gap or just another gap in a pullback. Ideally 13350 should be an important support in coming days if we term it a runaway gap.

On the upside 14100 /14450 are 61 % retracement from 15100/15580. So traders/investors should book partial profits and start trailing to conserve gains as part of discipline. Only a close above 15100 could instill faith in the pullback and confirm a double bottom till then wait and watch for further moves to take a fresh view.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

The world is talking about FED , Short Selling, bailouts etc etc and whats good or whats not ... Well there is a lot of stuff that can be written on it and may be covered some other time but in a gist US Fed is doing wat it needs to safeguard their economy and may continue to do that as always... Above all isnt it good that India doesnt need positive govt steps rather for last few months we were looking at CRR hikes which may dampen growth ;) .....

Stocks to watchout for :

Andhra Bank and Syndicate Bank look good technically . Keep a watch for volumes.

Some stocks that may face resistance around the zones , only a crossover above them could trigger quick trades.
SBI around 1640 , Punj lloyd 315-318 , Union Bank 158 , BOI 300

Brushman Inds , Bang Overseas are two risky stocks that have sustained in these markets and have given a breakout and can continue to move another 10-20 %. High risk players can keep a watch .


Nifty might open around 4363 and max upside of 4403.

For any downside, nifty breaking 4276 can fall to 4233-4216 for the day.

after a huge 2 day rally , i expect some profit booking to set it.however for positional we have to keep a watch on 4188, till nifty breaks 4188, it is a buy on dips, only breaking 4188, it can show weakness in short term.


Nifty :: After made double bottom and positive international news with world indices Nifty move up sharply and break one by one resistance at higher level. For 22nd Sep. in one level, above 4234 momentum seems up, below 4234 momentum down.. Up to 4367 Nifty is in corrective rally only.. Momentum is still up and that’s why our strategy for 22nd Sep buy in deep (S.L 4115) and sell at high (S.L 4403) .. Avoid buying at higher level buy only in deep. Watch strong resistance zone at higher level 4367 to 4403.. If market open too high near strong resistance zone, change strategy as sell at high (S.L 4503) buy on deep (S.L 4234).. Resistance for up move at 4267/4272/4300/4331 /4367/4403/4503.. Supports 4234/4178/4150/4115..
(As per our last week Sunday post primary wave B over at last Thursday and this up move start as C wave)

The Indian markets saw two days of amazing gains when all the world markets were displaying weakness. Bad news now does bring the markets down but the markets are not being able to sustain the weakness. The bulls have a clear advantage now, at least in the short term. On Friday the Nifty opened with an upward gap of about 100 points and surprisingly continued in the same direction. Friday, in fact, was a good day for all markets over the world. The Asian markets were between 4% and 10% up with Hang Seng leading the pack with gains of 9.61% and Shanghai following a close second with 9.46% gains. The Indian markets, as we all know, were more than 5% up with Nifty closing with gains of 207 points and BSE Sensex jumping 726 points. The European markets also closed with gains between 5 and 10% with the French CAC jumping 9.2% and London FTSE gaining 8.8%.

Nifty Daily Chart - Resistance at 21 day EMA Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty, which shows the big jump in the last two days. 450 points in 2 days. This rally came after the head and shoulders target was achieved at 3800, which also happened to be a major support as the lowest low (actually 3790) formed in recent times (July 2008). A rally should have come back and found resistance near the neckline at 4200 but there was not even a hint of resistance at those levels. The Nifty easily crossed 4200 and after making a high at 4262, finally ended the day at 4245. There is some bit of resistance near current levels at 4250, at 4300 and then 4350. A major resistance comes in at or near 4500. An indicator added on the charts today is a 21 day exponential moving average which usually gives very good support/resistance levels in trending markets. This can be seen on the chart shown above too. The 21 day EMA level for Friday was 4264 and the Nifty made a high of 4262.65. Coincidence? No, it happens a number of times. If this indeed is a trending market then a break above this should be decisive. Not only that, it will also then act as a support if the price were to come down. But what if it is a sideways market? Well, then we should see the price coming down below it soon enough. The moving averages have also proved, time and again, that they are useless in sideways markets.

Now since 4200 was a significant level for us and since the price has now managed to move above it on Friday, it should now act as a good support for the Nifty. One could consider buying in the short term with a stop loss at 4200. One may think of using the ‘trailing stop loss’ technique as each level of 4250, 4300 and 4350 is ticked off by the Nifty. Consider exiting beween 4450 and 4500.

MARKET WILL TAKE CUE FROM GLOBAL EVENTS

BSE Sensex(14042.30) and Nifty(4245.25) closed 0.35 and 0.4% up last week.Inflation was at 12.14 v/s 12.10 last week.Crude oil was at 100$.Mareket had fallen sharply during the week on Lehman Brothers,Merrill lynch and AIG insurance’s crisis but recovered in later part due to steps taken by U.S. government by banning short selling..Support for sensex is 13550 and for Nifty 4100.Resistance for Sensex is 14550 and Nifty is at 4400.Local fund buying was visible against selling of FII.Nifty put-call ratio was 0.77.Nifty 4200 call added open interest.Infosys and ONGC added open interest.

Strategy for Future Option players.

1)Reliance(2055.10) Lot Size-75 Shares.
Buy one call option of October month strike price 2070@106.25 Rs.
Sell one call option of October month strike price 2190@60.00 Rs.
Premium Paid=106.25*75=7968.75 Rs.
Premium Received=60*75=4500.00 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=7968.75-4500.00=3468.75 Rs.
Maximum Profit=2190-2070=120*75=9000-3468.75=5531.25
Maximum Loss=3468.75 Rs.
Break-even=2116.25 Rs.

2)Sail(146) October month future-Lot Size 1350 shares.
Buy one lot of Sail October month future@146
Sell one call option of Sail October month strike price150@7.20 Rs.
Premium Received=7.20*1350=9720.00 Rs.
Max Profit=150-146=4+7.20=11.20*1350=15120.00 Rs.
Max loss=Unlimited.

Trading Idea

1)Chamble Fertilizers(63.45)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)NTPC(182.95)Buy this stock in decline and trade.

Markets may have a gap up opening as US markets rallied the second consecutive day.
Trade in small quantity.
BUY RNRL CMP: - 79.75 Buy above 80.20 for targets 81.55 , 83.35 & 85.20 and sell below 78.40 , 77.05 and 75.25.
BUY Punj Llyod CMP: - 311.40 Buy above 306.50 for targets 318 , 325 , 336 and sell below 298 , 287 & 280.


Daily News Letter 22-09-2008
Market is showingn pressure of FII Selings since last few days
however, heavy covering was seen in some counters on Friday.
CAUTION:
Nifty Must survive above 4213 on
And give close above 4297 to resume uptrend again
S Kotak
Trading Zone : 22-09-2008
Scrip
Close
Stop Loss
Target
Remark
NTPC
182
180
185-187
Follow Trend
CAIRN
220
219
227-234
DO
BHEL
1708
1693
1735-1762
DO
IndiaBulls
214
207
223-232
DO
RELIANCE
2055
2039
2098-2137
DO
ICICI Bank
627
615
647-667
DO
Note :
If any stock do not survive above CLOSE levels
exit fast.
Dark Horse :
__________________
DIVI;s LAB
Close :1444
Stop loss : 1437
Target :1471-1498
Nifty levels 22-09-20078
___________________________________________________________________
Date
Close
Upper Target
Lower Target
Bias
Nifty
4245
4297-4327
4167-4087
Up
_______________________________________________________


Please do not think that this time market is positive because 12 banks America are still stand in bailout line. Fed chief said about the giant bailout but it will happen or not no body knows & how much impact can show on Indian market, it will be the very soon to say. Next coming days no sharp bull will get to see in the market which got from the lower level & no bull back is come when next market fall happen. Please keep these things in your mind when do trade. If any trader or investors go to involve on higher level then their rates will not come for the long time. So please do not hold any long position





Very useful to plan your entry and stop-loss for your trades.
Please click on the charts to enlarge in same window (click the back button to return to the blog)



(Above) Reliance Chart (created on Sept 18th)



(Above) SBIN chart (created Sept 18)




(Above) Nifty chart

(Above) ICICIBank Chart showing gap







The Indian market saw smart rally on the back of strong global cues .Nifty opened on gap-up note and close near day high .For coming session we can see more upside towards 4340-4398 zone on the lower side 4200-4140 will act as support zone.
Return of ,

Last week nifty gain with 0,40% with high volume. Market was very volatile seen the sharp fell and testing 3800 and recover sharply and close above 4200. On daily chart nifty had formed double bottom pattern as well as Island Reversal pattern at the bottom , which is bullish sign and let us respect . For coming session if nifty trade above 4253 we can test 4405-4487 on the lower side 4102-4140 will act as support zone. As we can say shorterm Return of Bigg -BOSS {Bulls
NIFTY WEEKLY we can see nifty has formed Hammer pattern so if nifty future trade above 4289 target 4536.

BUY KOTAK631 TGT 644>651 STOPLOSS 617
BUY HDFC ABOVE 2332 TGT 2401>2471 STOPLOSS 2289
BUY PUNJLLOYD ABOVE 315 TGT 321>329 STOPLOSS 308


The US Govt has come to the rescue of the financials - here is what it means

- Govt will give hundreds of billion $ to buy bad debt/mortgages the financials are stuck with. That means that mess is as big as most thought (1 trillion $)

- At what price the bad debt will be bought is not known - unclear

- Will use Tax Payers' money to fund this bail out

- Also will use the $50 billion Exchange Stabilization Fund created to protect the $ - They need all the money that they can

- Can print extra $ ? Dollar to fall ?

What it means for US citizens

- May get home loans again ;-) - would anyone qualify for such a loan anymore

- You are screwed, because there is not going to be any CHANGE - be it from Obama or McCain - they are gonna tax you higher for sure

- Temporary relief - many can still get to keep their jobs

- Interest rates won't come down - because your govt has bought all this mess and they want to recover that money from the existing owners

- Paulson doesn't have a clue as of now how this plan is going to work otherwise he w


1. SBI was one of the stocks which was not effected by Lehman brothers crisis last week. SBI reversed from its support of RS 1401 level.

2. SBI has to move above the level of rs 1601 for the uptrend to remain intact in the stock. If it is able to move above 1601 with volume than one is likely to see the level of Rs 1700 in the stock.

3. SBI enjoys support at the levels of Rs 1399 and Rs 1300

1. If Reliance fails to surpass resistances at the levels of Rs 2071 and 2141 than one should be ready to see the stock ready to fall again to the levels of Rs 1,881 and Rs 1,765.

2. As suggested last week Reliance touched a low of Rs 1764 and thereafetr pulled up. Beware of this stock if it breaks 1969 level on the downside as it is a confirmed indication that stock will touch 1950-1900 levels

1. Infosys has to move above the levels of Rs 1651,1677 and 1711 to be considered that it has moved out of the downtrend which was seen when it commenced its downward journey from Rs 1,804 peak.

2. Infosys enjoys strong support at thelevels of Rs 1483 and Rs 1449 and a break down of these levls can see the stock being dragged to the levels of Rs 1301. One can not conclusively say that the

WEEKLY REPORT CARD
(22nd to 27th of September 2008)
By Megha investments

KEEP EYE ON USA-

Bailout plans approval by congress
Final Vote by congress for indo-us nuke deal.

Hello friends hope all are fine and it was another roller costar week –Monday market open in gap down and Friday open in gap up and almost close near to days high. Generally in this pattern it forms the “ISLAND REVERSAL” but this time traders has not make such pattern if this had occurred then we may see huge short covering as well as long build up and it may probably rollover to next month but has to say this has not happen.

Friends this time bottom short-term bottom has been formed by both index. but our gut filing and our experience suggest that this rally is not so strong –if rescue plan get approval then this rally may become strong but on the other hand fii are just covering their shorts and not building long so this is what create question in mind that we will see more upside from hear? We think not as we have already covered all most 18% distance from the low so the upside potential is not so much as of now from these levels.

Lets come to the levels last time given “head and shoulders “ pattern after good news comes from usa we recovered otherwise it will fall to our head n shoulder target of 3670.

Friends visit our web site www.janibrothers.blogspot.com we have upload the charts of nifty ,mcx crude oil and Dow Jones and we have bought nifty fu from 3830 and see how it rise without any doughty we have put all the charts u can verify by dates and time and see how all three blasted –u can join us for free live message on yahoo messenger our id is smsjani@yahoo.com. We have told to buy Dow at 10600 and it rise to 11400 plus levels in two days just power of charts and vision.

DERAVATIVE ANALYSIS-

After studying derivatives figures we come to know that put-call ration is below 1 that is 0.95 this is sign of over sold market and we may see bit of recovery. We have seen traders were selling 4200 and 4000 strike price put options so this is the major support are for the next week and last week of expiry and 4500 call buying suggest that we will see the levels soon.

In the game of gap down and gap up opening big players has cover their shorts nothing else from this side we are not seeing any long build up however they are holding their shorts and also roll overing their shorts so this is bed for market that big players and fii expect more bed news to come .

Our friendly suggestion is that start booking profit over 4500 and keep cash to invest in conterioan portfolio.

NIFTY FU-two major support at 4130-4073 if it close below that levels then will fall to 3670 to complete head and shoulders pattern before that it has now strong support at 3800 on monthly charts.

While on the upside it ahs strong resistance at 4336-4397 above that it can test 4460-4513.

Remember friends this is bear market rally and we have recovered all most 18% from the recent low and it may rise by another 4 to 5% we advise u all to start booking profit above 4513.

SENSEX -two major support at 13632-13346.
While on the upside strong resistance at 14511-14609 close above will take to most resistane at 15128 close above will fire to 15700 –start booking profit above 15128 and keep cash.

DOW JONES-support at 10797
Close above 11800 will take to 12051 and above that will fire to 12593.

MCX CRUDE OIL-see the charts we have given buy call on Tuesday and it is on fire we have put swing chart and analysis just read it.

SHORT TERM DELIVERY BASED STOCK-

Satyam computers-formed island reversal bottom buy with target of 424-438.

Idfc-keep stop loss of 75 and go long with target price of 86-90 and above that 96-102.

Tata power- stop loss 950 target 1140

Mcnally bharat-hammer formation on weekly charts buy with stop loss of 105 and immediate target of 115-120-126-133.

Tata chemical-Friday given last hot call to all buy with target of 291.

DAY TARDING CALLS FOR MONDAY-

Buy punj lyod keep stop loss 303-299 target 319-322-326

Wipro-this is our hot call for our paid subscribers.

Buy icici keep stop loss of 615 and it will fire to 548 if it trades 10-15 minutes above then know one can stop to fire.

ANY DECLINE BUY TWO ENGERING COUNTER-

-GREAVES COTTON
-MCNALLY BHARAT.

If Index Crosses 14325 then It may touch 14663,14945…13674 May Act as Strong Support….







If Nifty Fut Crosses 4346,then 4418,4490,4526…4142 May Act As Strong Support…..







BSE Index Prediction for Week (22.09.08 To 26.09.08) :-
Index Closing Price Support Stoploss Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
BSE 14042.32 13674 - 14663 14945 -














Nifty Future's Prediction for Week (22.09.08 To 26.09.08):-
Index Closing Price Support Stoploss Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
Nifty 4283.10 4142 - 4418 4490 4526














Nifty Future's Hot Scripts for Week (22.09.08 To 26.09.08) :-
Sr.No. Company Name Closing Price Support Stoploss Target 1 Target 2
1 Reliance 2060.40 2040 2024 2114 2157
2 Union Bank 152.15 148 143 158 164
3 Rel.Infra 898.85 887 873 947 976
4 R Power 164.25 162 159 170 174
5 ICICI 630.25 619 607 664 688














Weekly Trading's Hot Scripts for Week (22.09.08 To 26.09.08) :-
Sr.No. Company Name Closing Price Support Stoploss Target 1 Target 2
1 Infosys 1624.55 1612 1600 1667 1704
2 SesaGoa 109.90 106 103 119 127
3 Escorts 71.95 68 65 78 85
4 Century Text 396.15 388 380 428 458
5 IFCI 40.60 39 37 44 49














For Delivery Based Investment Hot Midcaps/Smallcaps for Week (22.09.08 To 26.09.08) :-
Sr.No. Company Name BSE Code Closing Price Stoploss Target 1 Target 2
1 On Mobile 532944 464.20 424.00 535 566
2 CHI Investment 532969 33.00 29.00 38 43
3 Ganesh Forging 532643 23.05 20.00 28 33
4 Sita Shree Food 532961 14.25 13.00 17 20
5 Harrison 500467 92.70 86.00 104 111
6 India Lease 500202 11.91 9.00 14 16
7 Nutraplus 524764 7.94 6.00 10 13
8 Assam Co. 500024 20.00 18.00 23 25
9 Salzer Electro 517059 57.00 54.00 65 73
10 Invicta 523844 16.47 14.00 19 24
11 Hotel Leela 500193 30.40 27.00 34 37
12 Santogen Export 511141 3.85 2.50 5 7
13 TFL 532812 17.00 14.00 19 22
14 Super Spinning 521180 9.45 8.00 14 17
15 Aftek 530707 34.50 31.00 38 43






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