-:WORLD MARKET:-
> U.S. MARKET
DOW: -504 NASDAQ: -81
> ASIAN MARKET (AT 8 AM)
NIKKEI: -523 HANG SENG: -350 SANGHAI: +0
-:ANYLYSIS:-
U.S. MARKET. SHOWED A BLASTING EFFECT. ASIAN MARKET FOLLOW THE U.S. CRUDE SLIP BELOW 93 $/BBL. FII SOLD 760+CR. DII BOUGHT 1300+CR. SGX NIFTY DOWN 167 POINTS TO 3882-3984 LEVEL. CRUDE SHARPLY DOWN TO 93 $/BBL.
"GETTING MARRIED TO A MARKET OUTLOOK ENDS IN A BAD DIVORCE"
# WORLD MARKET
> U.S. MARKET
DOW : -504 NASDAQ : -81
> ASIAN MARKET (AT 8 AM)
NIKKEI : -523 HANG SENG : -350 SANGHAI : +0
# ADRS (POSITIVE) : --
# ADRS (NEGATIVE) : ALL BY 2 TO 15%
POINTS TO WATCH FOR TODAY'S TRADING
# U.S. MKT. SHOWED A BLASTING EFFECT.
# ASINA MKT. FOLLOW THE U.S.
# CRUDE SLIP BELOW 93 $/BBL
# FII SOLD 760+CR. DII BOUGHT 1300+CR
# SGX NIFTY DOWN 167 POINTS TO 3882-3984 LEVEL.
# TODAY'S STRATEGY :
> LEHMAN BROTHERS, AIG & MERRILL LYNCH PROBLEMS MADE A BIGGEST FALL AFTER 9/11. FINANCIAL CRISIS MAY CAUSE RECESSION FEAR
> CRUDE SHARPLY DOWN TO 93 $/BBL
> THOUGH GLOBAL CUES ARE NOT GOOD, SGX NIFTY DOWN SIDE OF 151 POINTS SUGGESTS THE FURTHER SELL OFF.
> THOUGH MKT. DOWN BY 850 POINTS, FII SELL FIGURE IS TOO LOW, IT INDICATES SOME BUYING COMES IN. MOREOVER FII BOUGHT 1200+CR IN F&O SIDE.
# DII BOUGHT 1300+CR GAVE STAND TO OUR MKT. OTHERWISE LOWER CIRCUIT WAS POSSIBLE.
> MKT. MAY TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 3850 LEVEL. WHAT AN EXCELLENT RECOMMENDATION OF 3800 PUT. I TOLD TO BUY LAST MONDAY TO CLIENTS AND TUESDAY IN THIS NEWS LETTER. IT WAS AVAILABLE AT 3-4 RS. YESTERDAY ITS HIGH WAS 78. JUST WITHIN A WEEK.
> GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY. BUY THE STOCKS THAT I SUGGESTED LAST WEEK AND TOLD BUY AT LOW OR ACCUMULATE IN STEP. SO JUST VISIT MY YAHOO GROUP FOR THE LIST.
> NO OVER NIGHT POSITION. NO TRADING
> BUY AT DEEP AROUND 3850 LEVEL FOR DELV. ONLY
Market may open down with hugh gap. Market may down between 09.56 and 10.30 Market may steady or down side between 12.10 and 12.30. Market may close at up to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
Dont buy anything.
On 15th September 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 13531 (down 469 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4072 (down 155 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
RPOWER - Reliance Power Limited
BANKINDIA - Bank of India
HINDUNILVR - Hindustan Unilever Limited
ICICIBANK - ICICI Bank Ltd
MARUTI - Maruti Suzuki India Limited
POWERGRID - Power Grid Corporation of India Limited
CAIRN - Cairn India Limited
INFOSYSTCH - Infosys Technologies Ltd.
ONGC - Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd
TCS - Tata Consultancy Services Limited
Technical Analysis for 16th September 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 13424, 13340, 13256, 13119, 12982, 12761, 12540, 12319
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 13561, 13698, 13782, 13866, 14087, 14308, 14529, 14750
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4088, 4013, 3939, 3872, 3806, 3665, 3524, 3383
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4154, 4221, 4295, 4370, 4511, 4652, 4793, 4934
Sensex Dollex :
The dollex index which is Sensex in dollar terms gives good divergences and insights many a times.
If we see here that we made a good double bottom 591.2 and 594.2 around the 12800 /12500 zone and good divergence and we saw a good move to 15500. Now although Sensex has not made a new low around 583 which is close to trendline support. This would be a level to watch in coming days as DOLLEX is an index which should matter more to Foreign money . !! Also its down 50 % from highs . Even Nse defty is exactly same in pattern.
Can we say the PAIN is more difficult for FIIs or will it get interesting for them sooner !.
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex breaks 14100 and makes a low of 13150 the very next day. It was stated in the last two views it was clearly stated that below 14100 the head and shoulders pattern suggests a minimum fall to 13100-13300 . Technical Analysis is a step ahead in finding news and todays move was a clear example of it.
Also with the target completion area of 13100-13300 we saw a decent recovery of 400 points from the lows. Also updated on the chatbox for people to do partial buying at 13100-13300 in good quality stocks.
In current market conditions traders have to be cautious with controlling the risks and minimize losses so can make goood money on right days.
Some of our views :
Although in past few sessions we had more then usual stop hits but discipline saved us and helped us to invest today in good stocks.
Nifty will again open weak, now what we need to watch is 3952. if this level is broken , then the downtrend will continue and nifty can hit 3869, and below that supp is at 3810.For any intra buy, keep an eye on the support levels, and if held, or crossed after the gap down,can be longed, supp at - 3903, 3869
Nifty CMP : 4072.9
Earlier we moved from 3790 to 4550 in just 7 sessions. And i hope this time it would ocur in reverse direction.And of course And tommorow is the 7th session. Hey..Its Just a Blind Speculation from my side.And if happens then i love to call it as a simple mathematics.
Whatever and where ever the market would go... Dont lost your capital on speculation. And this week is full of news and the volatility in the market is rising day by day. Probably market may behave with huge gap upopening and gap down opening. So do your trading with investing lesser amount. So that you will
be in the next game even if you loose it little.
Reduce your risk and make the game safer to play.
Nifty :: After open below our blue channel support Nifty move down sharply and break all important support easily. As we say in yesterday post avoid buying below 13620 (in Sensex). Buying seems from lower level. But its pull back rally only. Huge gap down opening works as strong resistance for up move. As per Nifty chart on 16th Sep. Our strong support zone 4110 to 4150 works as strong resistance for up move.. As per wave count Nifty may be in primary X of last C lag.. Maximum target zone in between 3870 to 3525. . .. 3930 & 3825 works as strong support for down side.. Avoid selling at lower level ..Our strategy for 16th Sep. Sell only at high (S.L 4160) Buy on deep (S.L 3790) . Resistance for up move at 4110/4137/4150/4160/4226.. Supports 3985/3965/
Markets tank with a gap down dropping 4%. Now, because of the gap down move, Nifty Futures will face a barrier at 4162 ( wrongly labled as 4164 on the above chart). It is difficult to say whether we will pull back to this level as the U.S. markets are down and who knows, tomorrow we may have another gap down.But anyway, if we do have a pullback to 4162 then that is a level to initiate fresh shorts. It is like boxing you know, punch a guy, bleed him, let him take a break and then in the next round, bash him up again. It is so cruel! and I guess the markets are no different.
The Indian market opened on a big gap downside on the back of weak global market and credit crisis in the US financial space. Nifty recover from days low but close in red zone on daily chart BSE SENSEX has made Hammer pattern which indicate some more upside towards 13700-13800 falling below today low again test of 3800levels.
0630hrs: Oil down to 94$ a barrel. The talk is that technically it can hit a low of 85-86$ before a bounce back. US went down and under seeing 4.5% red on closing and Asia - Nikkei has opened red and trading 4.56% red. Another rocking day in making....
2237 hours: today after seeing the markets, I came back home, had a wonderful sleep. The reasons were basically two some, firstly, I had no exposure to the derivatives, and secondly, I give a damn to where my stocks go. Another thing that I did was to dig out Kenny Rogers song the The Gambler and heard it about 10 times. Out of those lyrics I will just post two sentences: -
....Said, if youre gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.
Now evry gambler knows that the secret to survivin
Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
cause evry hands a winner and evry hands a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.
These words are like a Prophecy on times such as these. I will not waste any more time and we'll get back to business. What Lehman Bros have done is that they have put out of business dozens of the world economies. It is at times like this that make you humble, no matter what you think about yourself. This act of the US, of not bailing out Lehman Bros may have shaken up the entire world economies but I believe that in the long run the action will hold in good stead. After all how long can the taxpayers money pay for your mistakes -- the mistakes that have been generated out of extreme flamboyance and overconfidence. This is not the first time that such an incident has happened and will not be the last. There was nothing but blood on the streets today. I don't want to recount what happened to our markets today. FTSE opened red and dropped further down by midday, recovering a little bit and ending at 3.92% down, Dax ended 2.74% in red and Cac closed 3.78% in red. After dropping the entire Asia and Europe in red -- the US red opening was the least US could do to sympathise with us. Dow opened red and is presently trading during the midsession 2.05% down. NASDAQ too opened red and this trading presently 1.29% down. S&P 500 too is down 1.89%. I somehow had a feeling that there was a slight chance that US recovers. If it does, then we might survive and not get slaughtered tomorrow. Otherwise anyone's guess is as good as mine.
I hope that no one is expecting magic in the charts -- the charts are as bad as they can be. The Bollinger bands that had constricted yesterday, have widened showing that the down trend is in place, the candles are not only trailing the lower edge but also going out of the band. 5 EMA is trailing well below the 20 EMA. The volumes, though less than yesterday are good enough. The MACD divergence has increased with the red line well below the blue. RSI is way down and bearish. The mass index is about to reach 25, and with every step it takes gets it closer to the 26.5 to 27 band, gives us more and more fear of the trend is changing to a downtrend. TRIX -- my favourite leading indicator is showing a downtrend. The only hope that I see in the charts today is that the slow statistic shows oversold conditions. The Red Line still trails below the blue line but both red and blue are in the oversold territory. Mind you, it can stay here for another day or so.
The international queues are not giving us any respite and neither are the charts. So, I am with the bears now till the time there is a turnround of indications on my chart. Purely by the charts the downside can go upto 3823 levels on nifty. For the more technical the support and resistances as per the pivot point calculations are as under: -
R3 4503
R2 4370
R1 4221
Pivot 4088
S1 3939
S2 3806
S3 3657
So those who would like to build up positions can look out for the break of support S1 and start buying. I feel that S1 should not be broken in a manner to continue the downtrend up to S2. Rest - just wait for the matinee show to begin at 9:55 AM..
0630hrs: Oil down to 94$ a barrel. The talk is that technically it can hit a low of 85-86$ before a bounce back. US went down and under seeing 4.5% red on closing and Asia - Nikkei has opened red and trading 4.56% red. Another rocking day in making....
2237 hours: today after seeing the markets, I came back home, had a wonderful sleep. The reasons were basically two some, firstly, I had no exposure to the derivatives, and secondly, I give a damn to where my stocks go. Another thing that I did was to dig out Kenny Rogers song the The Gambler and heard it about 10 times. Out of those lyrics I will just post two sentences: -
....Said, if youre gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
Therell be time enough for countin when the dealins done.
Now evry gambler knows that the secret to survivin
Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
cause evry hands a winner and evry hands a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.
These words are like a Prophecy on times such as these. I will not waste any more time and we'll get back to business. What Lehman Bros have done is that they have put out of business dozens of the world economies. It is at times like this that make you humble, no matter what you think about yourself. This act of the US, of not bailing out Lehman Bros may have shaken up the entire world economies but I believe that in the long run the action will hold in good stead. After all how long can the taxpayers money pay for your mistakes -- the mistakes that have been generated out of extreme flamboyance and overconfidence. This is not the first time that such an incident has happened and will not be the last. There was nothing but blood on the streets today. I don't want to recount what happened to our markets today. FTSE opened red and dropped further down by midday, recovering a little bit and ending at 3.92% down, Dax ended 2.74% in red and Cac closed 3.78% in red. After dropping the entire Asia and Europe in red -- the US red opening was the least US could do to sympathise with us. Dow opened red and is presently trading during the midsession 2.05% down. NASDAQ too opened red and this trading presently 1.29% down. S&P 500 too is down 1.89%. I somehow had a feeling that there was a slight chance that US recovers. If it does, then we might survive and not get slaughtered tomorrow. Otherwise anyone's guess is as good as mine.
I hope that no one is expecting magic in the charts -- the charts are as bad as they can be. The Bollinger bands that had constricted yesterday, have widened showing that the down trend is in place, the candles are not only trailing the lower edge but also going out of the band. 5 EMA is trailing well below the 20 EMA. The volumes, though less than yesterday are good enough. The MACD divergence has increased with the red line well below the blue. RSI is way down and bearish. The mass index is about to reach 25, and with every step it takes gets it closer to the 26.5 to 27 band, gives us more and more fear of the trend is changing to a downtrend. TRIX -- my favourite leading indicator is showing a downtrend. The only hope that I see in the charts today is that the slow statistic shows oversold conditions. The Red Line still trails below the blue line but both red and blue are in the oversold territory. Mind you, it can stay here for another day or so.
The international queues are not giving us any respite and neither are the charts. So, I am with the bears now till the time there is a turnround of indications on my chart. Purely by the charts the downside can go upto 3823 levels on nifty. For the more technical the support and resistances as per the pivot point calculations are as under: -
R3 4503
R2 4370
R1 4221
Pivot 4088
S1 3939
S2 3806
S3 3657
So those who would like to build up positions can look out for the break of support S1 and start buying. I feel that S1 should not be broken in a manner to continue the downtrend up to S2. Rest - just wait for the matinee show to begin at 9:55 AM..
-: STRATEGY:-
LEHMAN BROTHERS, AIG & MERRILL LYNCH PROBLEMS MADE A BIGGEST FALL AFTER 9/11. FINANCIAL CRISIS MAY CAUSE RECESSION FEAR
THOUGH GLOBAL CUES ARE NOT GOOD, SGX NIFTY DOWN SIDE OF 151 POINTS SUGGESTS THE FURTHER SELL OFF.
THOUGH MKT. DOWN BY 850 POINTS, FII SELL FIGURE IS TOO LOW, IT INDICATES SOME BUYING COMES IN. MOREOVER FII BOUGHT 1200+CR IN F&O SIDE.
DII BOUGHT 1300+CR GAVE STAND TO OUR MARKET. OTHERWISE LOWER CIRCUIT WAS POSSIBLE.
MARKET MAY TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 3850 LEVEL. WHAT AN EXCELLENT RECOMMENDATION OF 3800 PUT. I TOLD TO BUY LAST MONDAY TO CLIENTS AND TUESDAY IN THIS NEWS LETTER. IT WAS AVAILABLE AT 3-4 RS. YESTERDAY ITS HIGH WAS 78. JUST WITHIN A WEEK.
GOOD BUYING OPPORTUNITY . BUY THE STOCKS THAT I SUGGESTED LAST WEEK AND TOLD BUY AT LOW OR ACCUMULATE IN STEP.
NO OVER NIGHT POSITION. NO TRADING. BUY AT DEEP AROUND 3850 LEVEL FOR DELIVERY. ONLY
-: SPOT NIFTY:-
NIFTY CLOSED AT 4072 WHICH LIVEL GIVEN BY US AS TARGET OF OUR BUY CALL. MANY FRIENDS CALL ME ON PHONE AND ASKING WHAT TO DO? I TOLD THEM NIFTY WILL CLOSE AROUND 4070ABOVE THEY HAVE BOUGHT NIFTY 4000BELOW AS PER OUR CALL.
SPOT NIFTY LVELVE:-
RANGE 4270 TO 3800
RESISTANCE 4150 TO 4160
SUPPORTS
1) 3955
2) 3985
3) 3850
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| Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events; Pattern Duration at least 25 days. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Will the de-leveraging US signal the commencement Of A Massive Bear Market ?
Insurers AIG, Citigroup, Merrill, Lehman, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan run concenterated Emerging Market equity portfolios. As the US deleverages, there would be no counterparties which can square up to FII selling, leading to plunging Equity markets spanning months and little hope for a revival in sight.
P Chidambaram claimed in his last Budget speech that in 6 decades of Indian polity, he and Sardar Manmohan Singh were the only FMs to present five successive budgets. Well, Mr. Chidambaram may add another possibility, of handing over the BSE Sensex to the next Government at the same level at which he had inherited it in 2003. How's that for a thought?
Since April 2008 weekends have never been the time to relax but a time to find a solution to the unfolding US financial crisis. The past weekend was no different-with Lehman going bust & Merrill going to Bank of America. The weekends that follow could well be reserved for AIG (the American International Group)-the biggest insurer in the World and Citigroup. Stock of both these concerns have been favoured by the Shorts, with AIG down to $ 5 and Citi down to $ 15.
Should these two institutions go belly-up, there will be severe repercurssions across the World, mainly in the way counterparty risk is settled in the Debt and Equity markets. Institutional Investors have been running amok in Emerging Markets withdrawing money left, right and centre. And yet they still carry very large portfolios that range from across the Real Estate space to Banks, and as it seems, most of this has been built upon leveraged money from the West. Deleveraging obviously implies that this money has to go back to the Home markets, leading to sustained fall in Asian Equity markets.
First things first
Why do the big deals always happen over the weekends? So the big boyz in government and finance can take off their neckties when they bargain with each other? So the markets will be closed and unable to register a response one way or another? So the shrinking fraction of the U.S. public that pays attention to anything besides NASCAR and pornography won't catch the news Saturday evening?
First it was Bear Stearns, and then the takeover of the "government sponsored enterprises" (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that guarantee trillions of dollars in mortgages. The "guarantee" is supposedly accomplished by converting bundles of mortgages from the banks and loan companies that originate them (that make the contracts with the buyers of houses) into bonds that can be sold downstream.
First it was Bear Stearns, and then the takeover of the "government sponsored enterprises" (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that guarantee trillions of dollars in mortgages. The "guarantee" is supposedly accomplished by converting bundles of mortgages from the banks and loan companies that originate them (that make the contracts with the buyers of houses) into bonds that can be sold downstream.
Risk was theoretically dispersed among the holders of these bonds. This all seemed to work during the long stable period when our cheap oil economy was chugging along, and house prices maintained a consistent relationship with incomes, and people paid their mortgages dependably. The whole system ran like a reliable machine - like a Chrysler slant- six engine!
Until the cheap oil age came to an end. Then, all parts of the system shook apart. It was the end of cheap oil that catalyzed the housing collapse and, by extension, the current huge financial crisis. But the run up to it was like a bounce off a high diving board into an empty pool.
Until the cheap oil age came to an end. Then, all parts of the system shook apart. It was the end of cheap oil that catalyzed the housing collapse and, by extension, the current huge financial crisis. But the run up to it was like a bounce off a high diving board into an empty pool.
The bounce came around 2001 when it became apparent that the U.S. standard-of-living could not be maintained on incomes in a post-cheap- oil economy. The trauma of 9/11 prompted a new and utterly insane consensus to form that the US standard of living could be switched over from income to massive debt.
All the normal brakes against irresponsible lending and borrowing came off - embodied in Alan Greenspan's absurd statement that it was a good time to assume an adjustable rate mortgage when interest rates were at a historic low - meaning they could only be adjusted upwards. Why hold Greenspan responsible? Because he was at the apex of the authority vested with establishing norms, and he shoved our behavior into the realm of the recklessly abnormal, and he should have known better.
The public went along with it because "free money" and high living are fun. Their behavior was reinforced by other authorities - for instance, President Bush, who told Americans to go shopping after the 9/11 attacks. (They went shopping with credit cards.) Things really wobbled in 2005 - which was, coincidentally, the year of all-time world-wide peak conventional oil production - with hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripping through the Gulf of Mexico oil rigs as a dramatic highlight. (It was also the year that The Long Emergency was published.)
Since then, the U.S. economy and the financial part of it that became a nine hundred pound tail wagging a thirty-pound dog, has been held together with baling wire, duct tape, and band-aids. All the debt run up by all parties - home-owners, credit-card holders, business, banks, hedge funds, government - is not being paid back reliably, and all the leveraged arrangements that depend on it being paid back are coming apart. Thus, capital disappears. The wealth of a nation disappears. All that remains is the pretense that we are still a wealthy society
Fannie and Freddie are near the center of this black hole of debt. So far, the black hole has been "papered over" by the old stage magician's trick of diverting the audience's attention.
The public went along with it because "free money" and high living are fun. Their behavior was reinforced by other authorities - for instance, President Bush, who told Americans to go shopping after the 9/11 attacks. (They went shopping with credit cards.) Things really wobbled in 2005 - which was, coincidentally, the year of all-time world-wide peak conventional oil production - with hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripping through the Gulf of Mexico oil rigs as a dramatic highlight. (It was also the year that The Long Emergency was published.)
Since then, the U.S. economy and the financial part of it that became a nine hundred pound tail wagging a thirty-pound dog, has been held together with baling wire, duct tape, and band-aids. All the debt run up by all parties - home-owners, credit-card holders, business, banks, hedge funds, government - is not being paid back reliably, and all the leveraged arrangements that depend on it being paid back are coming apart. Thus, capital disappears. The wealth of a nation disappears. All that remains is the pretense that we are still a wealthy society
Fannie and Freddie are near the center of this black hole of debt. So far, the black hole has been "papered over" by the old stage magician's trick of diverting the audience's attention.
The systemic wound that Bear Stearns represented, was covered up with a band-aid applied by the Federal Reserve's exchange of loans for worthless securities. In fact, the capital of Bear Stearns actually did disappear - a mere residue of it, a few cents on the dollar, was shifted to JP Morgan as payment for taking the wrapper off the band-aid. But, basically, the money is gone.
Now, the same thing has happened with Fannie and Freddie, except that the scale is an order of magnitude greater. This time, the U.S. Treasury Department is assuming worthless paper and paying out much larger loans to enterprises that are functionally bankrupt. The exact nature of the government's chartered "sponsorship" has always been ambiguous.
Now, the same thing has happened with Fannie and Freddie, except that the scale is an order of magnitude greater. This time, the U.S. Treasury Department is assuming worthless paper and paying out much larger loans to enterprises that are functionally bankrupt. The exact nature of the government's chartered "sponsorship" has always been ambiguous.
Professional opinion has generally held that government backing was implied rather than explicit - but that's a ridiculous internal contradiction that went unchallenged for decades as Fannie and Freddie's Ponzi-style operation lumbered on (and their executives made off with obscene payouts). Now the government's role has suddenly been made explicit. It will probably only make things worse, since the enterprises are too big and over-scaled to work under any circumstances, let alone insolvency.
One thing this points to is a truth that is uniformly overlooked by kibitzers: that what we developed over the past decade in America was not an "information economy" or a "consumer economy" but a suburban sprawl building economy, meaning an economy dedicated to building a living arrangement with no future. The climax of the sprawl building economy occurred in absolute lockstep with the climax of peak oil. You can date it virtually to the month - May, 2005. After that, the future asserted itself and all the financial expectations bound up with sprawl-building went up in a vapor - including the value of mortgages on suburban houses. Everything that followed has been an attempt to cover up this basic reality: that the way we live in America can't continue.
The reason our energy debate is so hollow and idiotic is because we can't face this basic reality. The fantasy-du-jour among both political parties is that we can become "energy independent." By this they mean we can keep on living the way we do by means other than oil. This is just not true. We have to make profound changes in everything we do from the way we inhabit the landscape to the way we produce our food. Lately, the only change we've shown any interest in is changing what our cars run on. But that is not going to rescue us, not even a little. Our inability to talk about anything else except the cars will drag us down into poverty and turmoil.
The housing market is not coming back. Ever. In the form that we knew it. The suburban project is over. That version of the American Dream is over. We'll be a lot better off if we put aside dreaming altogether for a while and start focusing on reality instead - that part of the day when we're awake and capable of actually doing things. We've got a lot to face and a lot to do.
The government takeover of Fannie and Freddie is just another papering- over of our fundamental problem - that until we embark on new ways of being a nation, of living differently and working differently on different things, the other nations of the world will not have confidence in us, or the paper we issue, and we will not really have confidence in ourselves.
Personally, I think we're in for financial carnage before the election. The GSE deal may be the place where the wheels really came off.
One thing this points to is a truth that is uniformly overlooked by kibitzers: that what we developed over the past decade in America was not an "information economy" or a "consumer economy" but a suburban sprawl building economy, meaning an economy dedicated to building a living arrangement with no future. The climax of the sprawl building economy occurred in absolute lockstep with the climax of peak oil. You can date it virtually to the month - May, 2005. After that, the future asserted itself and all the financial expectations bound up with sprawl-building went up in a vapor - including the value of mortgages on suburban houses. Everything that followed has been an attempt to cover up this basic reality: that the way we live in America can't continue.
The reason our energy debate is so hollow and idiotic is because we can't face this basic reality. The fantasy-du-jour among both political parties is that we can become "energy independent." By this they mean we can keep on living the way we do by means other than oil. This is just not true. We have to make profound changes in everything we do from the way we inhabit the landscape to the way we produce our food. Lately, the only change we've shown any interest in is changing what our cars run on. But that is not going to rescue us, not even a little. Our inability to talk about anything else except the cars will drag us down into poverty and turmoil.
The housing market is not coming back. Ever. In the form that we knew it. The suburban project is over. That version of the American Dream is over. We'll be a lot better off if we put aside dreaming altogether for a while and start focusing on reality instead - that part of the day when we're awake and capable of actually doing things. We've got a lot to face and a lot to do.
The government takeover of Fannie and Freddie is just another papering- over of our fundamental problem - that until we embark on new ways of being a nation, of living differently and working differently on different things, the other nations of the world will not have confidence in us, or the paper we issue, and we will not really have confidence in ourselves.
Personally, I think we're in for financial carnage before the election. The GSE deal may be the place where the wheels really came off.
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