KotakInvestment
Reliance : After breaking RSI, intra day, bounced back from low of 1765.
Friday strategy can be Buy with stop loss 1927 ( close-1938) Even if you can add around 1883 if buying in future and do not want to keepstop loss with target between 2005-2066 within two three days.
(2) Reliance Capital: BUY
REL CAPITAL also bounced back from 50 EMA after forming low of 972.
Close : 1125
Stop Loss : 1077
target : 1182-1231.
I have given bigger stop loss because, if market open low, and this stock face selling presure, you an avoid initial entry and buy around this level.
However, I feel that market may open with positive note on Friday.
(3) ICICI Bank :BUY
Close : 577
Stop loss : 557
..( same strategy as above)
Target : 601-626
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Nifty Close: 4038
Good above : 3987
Target : 4125-4213
Hoever, those who have risk apetite can buy and average Nifty at decline with targets 4332-4538 with small rsistance around 4213.
Market may open up. Market may up between 10.01 and 10.26 Market may steady or up side between 11.32 and 12.59. Market may close at up to previous closing.
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Opening Bell Call
Buy
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
PNB - Punjab National Bank
PUNJLLOYD - Punj Lloyd Limited
BANKINDIA - Bank of India
RPL - Reliance Petroleum Limited
On 18th September 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 13315 (up 52 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4038 (up 29 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
APTECHT - Aptech Limited
CIPLA - Cipla Ltd
SESAGOA - Sesa Goa Ltd.
DRREDDY - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.
BHARATFORG - Bharat Forge Ltd
Technical Analysis for 19th September 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 13073, 12936k 12800, 12542, 12285, 11891, 11497
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 13330, 13588, 13724, 13861, 14255, 14649, 15043
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 3962, 3918, 3874, 3793, 3711, 3585, 3460, 3334
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4044, 4125, 4169, 4213, 4338, 4464, 4589, 4715
Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty. Three days out of the last four have displayed candles with long lower shadows, as marked by the green arrows. Two of these candles have very small bodies and, in comparison, very long lower shadows. Today’s candle, in candlestick charting parlance, is also called a hammer. And it is named a hammer not only because it looks like one but also because such candles are found near the end of a downtrend and it is said that such candles are ‘hammering out a base’. Options outlet says the following about a hammer. 
So, is this the end of the bear market? Well, we can’t say for sure. The prices have started ‘hammering out a base’, inflation has stabilized, crude prices have softened and India does not seem to be having too much of an impact of the credit crisis in the US. Who knows, this may be the end of the bear market. But hey, look at the world around you. There is so much of pessimism around. Surely, India cannot remain insulated from the problems in the rest of the world. Hmm, maybe it cannot. Or maybe it can. But as far as pessimism around the world is concerned, I would again like to point out what Sir John Templeton said. He said that “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, according to Moneycontrol says that India is still in a long term bull market and that the current phase is only an interruption to that bull market. His logic is simple. That had we seen the market rise from 3000 to 13000 and then come down to 11000, it would have been termed as a correction. Now when we have seen so much of greed and so many excesses that the markets went to 22000 and then came down to 13000 then why are we not calling this phase a correction too? Shireen Bhan, in that context, in conversation with him mentioned that we have recently seen ‘the mother of all bull markets’ to which Rakesh Jhunjhunwala immediately disagreed and said the ‘the mother of all bull markets’ was yet to come. This conversation with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala will be telecast on CNBC this Saturday at 7:30 pm or Sunday at 10:30 pm. Watch it.
Shankar Sharma of First Global, though, remains a bear and says that the Sensex may not be able to reconquer its previous highs for the next 2-3 years and that it may come down to 10000-11000 levels.
But Vikas, where does that leave us? Do we remain bullish or bearish? Well, I have given you both sides of the market. You decide for yourself what you want to be. I, personally, am not too bearish on the markets, especially after seeing the candles formed in the last four days.
At lower levels you could look at these stocks as investment options
Essar Oil around 160 levels
GVK power around 28 levels
Ispat - around 22
Godavari Ispat
Rohit Ferro
Sunil Hightech
RPL - around 140 levels or lesser the better
Rcom - lesser the level better
RIIL
SKIL infra
Bartronics
Mphasis
Sesa goa
Moser Baer
Noida Toll Bridge - great future
Cairn India
Unitech
GLenmark Pharma
Ang Auto
SAIL
Hindustan Zinc
Shiv - vani
Aban Offshores
Spice mobiles
SPEL semiconductor
Indian Hotels
Bharti Airtel
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex achieves the head and shoulders 2nd tgt of 12500 also and makes a quick pullback. The bottom made is 12558 which is very close to 12514 . But it would be very early to confirm it to be a double bottom. A close above 15k levels may confirm the double bottom scenario. In the short term the next level there is a gap at 13660-1930 which needs to be filled and 13900 would be the next resistance.
BSE dollex charts are showing a very good positive divergence on RSI and other indicators which is a good thing. Also Sensex has a higher RSI and indicator value at 12500 bottom which indicates a strong pullback also . Although indicators can be a lil tricky at times and i m not a gr8 follower or believer of them :) .
61 % of the current dip comes to 14100-14200 zones which is where markets would see some pressure.
The strategy to buy in a staggered manner from 13100 as 1st lot may turn out to be profitable at 13900 + as particular stocks may give a good return and one should book partially at 15-25 % gains as part of discipline.
Dow Jones technical View :
As was seen in the chart presented that 10500-10650 zone would be the level to watch in coming days. We saw yesterday some support at 10600 and today a low of 10460 and a reversal to 11000 levels. 11300-11500 is a major resistance in coming days for the bounce back .
Stocks to watchout for :
IDFC has come below 80 and is slowly drifting down but investors can buy in a staggered manner till 65 for long term view only as stock may take time to perform .
Small PSU banks like Vijaya , Dena , Allahabad Bank , Andhra Bank can be bought to the extent of 50 % of intended qty and add on every dip till October with a long term view of 6 mths -1 yr or a tgt of 20-35 % whichever comes first.
SBI , BOI , BOB have sustained strongly in this market . Also LIC housing another favorite in diff segment have stood the storm. Technically BOI above 300 and SBI above 1635 could see a trading move of 5-10 % quickly on upside.
Some other stocks have been recommended to clients for investment at lower levels which are up from those levels in the current bounce and will be booked at 13900 + .
Todays pick for 6 mths tgt in Rolta was done in 6 hours.
18-Sep-2008 10:58:36
ROlta can be bought at 230-245 slowly with a 6 mths view. Investors can allocate 30-40 \% of investment at 13100-12500 and rest later.
18-Sep-2008 13:25:03
Rolta has bounced from 240 levels 6 mth tgt at 290/320 for investors. Reliance resistance at 1980/2040.
Market Observations :
The lenghty view given on long term and short term on Sensex , Dow Jones and economical view did not give me enough time to comment on Gold crude and rumours.
GOLD :
In the last interactions with a client i had made him hold some gold bought at 775 for a rally. And the rally amazed me as my tgts were just 840-860 but it zoomed to 918 .
Why is gold running ??.. Majority of the times people talk about $ , crude etc co relation . But the major co- relation for gold is the economy . Whenever it seems the World is an economical mess fundamentally only Asset that can save is GOLD. So uncertainty in global arena led the gold rush with prices going to 918 ! . And as soon as there was a little stability prices started drifting to 850. Technically there is a barrier at 930 on upside and 840/780 on downside shud support.
Crude :
Market-men believe the story in crude is over for next few mths or woud be too bold to say years. Technically a pullback to 110 levels is possible but later prices could drift to 85 levels also. As i dont expect we may see major effect of crude will prefer not to write much like ;) 140 levels and regular updates . If somebody is a commo trader can ask me for more.
Rumours :
In such sentiments we would see lot of crap rumours like ICICI bankrupt or Kotak etc etc. Well all i would say is the Banking system , RBI in India is much more stronger and less leveraged then any other !. Though u may see losses posted bankruptcy never. Dont consider this to be a buy call on pvt banks. Small PSU banks are gr8 value buy now n on dips.
Some dope :
Morgan Stanley Fund has shifted majority of the holdings to other FIIs as per the bulk deals.
Is it that Morgan is pulling out ??? Remember Orchid cracked coz of BSMA ???-- negative way of seeing it .
Deutsche securities has taken up all the stock or transfer !! A quick and easy transfer for Morgan implies no forced selling which is good as stocks may not get impacted // .. Positive way
Nifty :: Take support near last bottom and made Long Lower Shadow candle. This is typically bullish signal when it occurred near strong support area with positive news. Also made double bottom.. Now for 19th Sep. watch strong resistance 4116 and 4150 momentum turn up above 4116 and turn strong above 4150.. Our strategy for 19th Sep. Buy on deep (S.L 3990) Sell at high (S.L 4267).. Still Nifty is in falling channel and small channel breakdown area works as strong resistance for up move, that’s why avoid buying at gap up opening wait for some correction then buy with strictly stop loss.. Resistance for up move at 4088/4116/4150/4177/4233/4267.. Supports 3990/3943/3930/3825/3800..
The Indian market bounces back from the lower levels and saw smart recovery across the sector .Nifty opened on 3800 zone but close near day high above 4000.For coming session if indices trade above 4100 we can see it touching 4163-4200 levels .On the lower side 3920-3960 will act as support zone
BUYABAN ABOVE 2408 TGT 2477 >2556 STOPLOSS 2355
Nifty is in downtrend and is correcting upwards.
3800 target also achieved today which I felt that would be difficult to achieve.
Another long lower shadow formed today which is bullish.
Double bottom formed at 3800 is also bullish.
Upside target of corrective upmove will be 4130, 4220.
Below 3800 downtrend will resume again.
***Derivatives (September 18)
-Nifty (September) future premium increased to 6 points and around 6 lakh shares were shed in open interest with increase in the cost of carry, indicating short covering at lower levels.
-Nifty call option shed 3 lakh shares in open interest, whereas put option added 6 lakh shares in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio increased to 0.83 from 0.82.
-Implied volatility has increased by 400-450 basis points(upto 45-53%%), which indicates high volatility in the coming days.
***Fund flow (September 17)
~FIIs net in Index fut. + 268 cr
~FIIs net in Stock Fut. + 196 cr
~FIIs in Cash Market - 1333 cr
~Mut Funds in Cash Market + 410 cr
***total fund flow – 459 cr today & nifty was down by 67 points.
*** So far net fund flow of - 10087cr in September series. (Nifty is also down in September series).
***Past fund flow
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)
After a gap down opening, Nifty Futures rallied all the way back up and closed higher than yesterday ! As expected, the volatility has shot up like mad - the 20 day ATR is at 136 while the 5 day ATR is at 193. Remember, the 20 day ATR was around 100 or so a few days back, so there is an increase of 36%. In all this, one funny thing has happened - the range is now 3800-4100 !To start with, I say again at the cost of repetition that the markets have shown wonderful resilience to close above the 4000 levels. The day opened at 4005 on nifty, and the market fell to 3799.55 a point above 52 week low of 3790.20. Thereafter, it climbed all the way up to close 29 points in Green at 4038.15. if this is not resilience then there is no word as a resilience. The Europe, meanwhile, that had opened in green, briefly went red -- recovered into green and just short of closing once again, dived deep into red. FTSE closed 0.66% red, Dax, 0.04% green and cac 1.06% red. US that open the green is already trailing in red, before even midsession has started. The US trouble is wider and deeper, and above all, much beyond my comprehension. So with every news that comes out there's a new level in stocks, all the world over. High on one day and low on the other day. Presently Dow is trading 0.17% in red, NASDAQ 0.45% down and S&P 500 0.33% red. where does this leave us? Well, it's too early to say, the swings are wild. So till the end of the trading session, and till the Asia opens -- it is difficult to take sides. But once again, chances of it slipping red or closing green are about equal.
The horror story on the candles continues. I would have called the candle today, a dragonfly once again, indicating a reversal of the downtrend, but am no longer sure. The volumes were higher than normal. The Bollinger bands continued to widen with the candles trailing the lower edge. 5 EMA continues traling well below the 20 EMA mark. On MACD divergences has remained about the same as yesterday, but the Red Line continues to trail below the blue line, giving bearish signals. On the RSI there is a small turn to the upside -- but overall it is still bearish. Mass index is just about to point short of 26 marker. TRIX is looking down, giving us no respite whatsoever. It is only the slow stochastic and that is generating a buy signal with both red and blue line above the 20 mark and the Red Line also above the blue marker.
The inflation figures were out today. Though the figure stood at 12.14% -- a shade higher than 12.10% in the previous week -- it showed the signs of stability. The inflation during this time last year was 3.46%. With the above data in hand one can justify both the bullish or the bearish mood. Bearish, because there is a tick increase in inflation and does not show is a sign of slowing down. Bullish, because it has remained stable for the fourth week in a row. So now you can take sides as to what you want to justify the bears or bulls.
For those who are more technically oriented - the resistances and supports for nifty are as under: -
R3 4376.20
R2 4213.15
R1 4125.65%
Pivot 3962.6
S1 3875.10
S2 3712.05
S3 3624.55
That is how market is!Did anyone expect that market will bounce back to normal after it went down for over 700 points?
I would like to ask Mr Azad who is an ardent followers of charts and technicals whether there was any respite seen yesterday on charts when market actually covered all the loss but ends in positive.......Is there any clue that charts is now showing..after making a double bottom at 12500!
Was there any thing that pointed that we should recover all the loss ground and close in positive territory?
And after seeing this..what does the charts fortell.....are we still to see the 9k levels......by Jan /Mar 09?Is there any significance when our market has made a double or triple bottom?
Mr Azad , this is not a criticism but am asking of curiosity.....
But it is clear that
1) It is not the fundamentals that is deteroitating but the sentiment is making the trouble.
2) When Dow went down by over 400 points why our market is showing strenght?
3)As I have written in comments, the short position created by Lehman Br is closed...is it that effect?
4)All the previous correction or whatever happened.....was due to high levearaged position of traders in F&O and also in cash stocks while while borrowing finance from the Brokers....etc....
5)The fundas are still in tact.....8% GDP is no mean less by any standard.
6)That is the only reason I am still writing about bullish view....
7)Crude is coming down , hence inflation will come down.....
8)3 out 5 big banks has gone bankrupt and only two is left.........eg.Bear Stern,Lehman,AIG gone ....Morgan Stanly and Goldman remains....there are news that now is the turn of UK banks to go bankrupt.....but I need to ask are they big enough like Lehman and Bear Stern to make that big an impact?
Well,I am writing the concluding part as I had to discontinue my post due to some work....
The summary of the above is, Can we go below 12500?
I would like to know what technicals analysis says after todays recovery............
The only problem Indian Market was facing is selling of FII and looking at the way market reacted positively from the days low of 12500 put me in a dilemma whether the wrost is over for our market.The only thing haunting our market was FII selling and I think with Lehman Brs bidding a good bye to Financial World....there seems no one more remaining to sell in India.
I am even seeing cross transaction between 2 FIIs which seems to me a very good sign.
I would like to write here that all my picks which have come to abysmal level are worth looking at.eg.Sujana Towers from 200 to 48, Gremach from 550 to 60, Jyoti Ltd from 180 to 50 etc etc...
If we are not going to buy now then when?
These are levels of market sentiments and not of fundamentals....The sentiment is low and hence we are seeing these prices which seems to me a life time chance to have it.
First Global Shankar Sharma is bearish for 2-3 yrs.He says that we will not be able to see the highs for 2-3 yrs.His prediction is on the world economy slowing down and the Financial Mess that has come out.
I also some times gets surprised and even annoyed how the top Honcos who are having so big a salary can just take down a 140 year old company, Lehman Br to ZERO in a quater or maybe couple of quaters!I need to pat them on back that even a simple and a lay investor would not make mistakes like they did and they are said to be the most learned people of the world.
The biggest mistake according to me was made by Lehman Br was investing in Sub prime Mortgage papers for $140 bn and that is Zero?
I can't understand how the things happened so suddenly and the value becomes Zero....Lehman Br 52 week high is $68 and it went to $.65, means 65 cents.Does it mean that what they invested in the papers of Sub prime Mortgage , $140 bn , has become Zero?How that can happen?How a value of $140 bn can become zero....the houses are still there...they can atleast fetch 50% of the original high....so it comes to atleast $70bn...
But buying Sub Prime Mortgage papers is a biggest mistake and there can be no mercy on those to took the decision and who approved the transaction.They have put the whole world economy at risk.
But I think the whole Model of western world financial sector need to get sae change and am sure there will be sweeping changes.
1. Indian stock market direction advice: It is pertinent to note that the inflation figure needs to be considered as it effects BSE and NSE. One has seen a marginal rise in the inflation numbers and Inflation for the week ended September 6 has risen slightly to 12.14% as against the level of 12.10% a week ago. FII are in cautious mode with buy-sell ratio at 1:2.5
Nifty has to cross above 4201 level to start the uptrend.
2. Quick money with Indian share tips: Bombay dyeing gave a profit of Rs 3500 and BPCL gave a profit of Rs 880 for every 100 shares traded as per recommendation.CAIRN and BOI did not reach the entry price.
3. Bombay stock exchange tracks Strong Future stocks to benefit
IOB
BOB
Maruti
Moser baer
Jindal Saw
PNB
HPCL
Indian Bk
BPCl
Union Bank
4. NSE Weak Future stocks
Adlabs Films
Unitech
Polaris Software
KPIT
Rajesh Export
NIIT
Peninsula Land
Ranbaxy
HDIL
5. Best Indian stock tips for day trading:
Buy Moser Baer>110.1,113,119 sl 107.8
Buy Indian overseas bank>112.1,116,120 sl 109.5
Buy Sterlite>465.1,477 sl 462.8
Buy BOI>284.1,292,297 sl 279.8
1. Tata Steel is a stock which is giving better picture than Jindal Steel in present scenario.
2. Tata Steel enjoys a comfortable support near the zone of Rs 450-430. In case these supports are held one may see a pull back rally in the stock which can take the stock to the levels of Rs 550-575.
3. As a matter of caution the outlook for long term for this stock depends on the global demand.
4. SBI is presently struck in a range and is showing some signs of strength.
5. SBI enjoys support at the level of Rs 1,405.
6. SBI faces resistance at the level of Rs 1,611 and in case this resistance is surpasssed with volume than stock has the potential to give a huge upswing which can come as a big surprise for the traders.
Today’s Market Breadth is Positive But: -
DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH
IF NIFTY SPOT DO NOT CROSS 4284 AND 4379 THEN.....
Ready for a big correction......up to 3621.
Warning: --Our ultimate target is , so please also keep this target in your mind.
There is no strength in the market, no body do purchasing on this level other wise all the investors will see to loss their money. There is more thing is left in the America. Morgan Stanley did sell in the delivery base market of 850 cr., so those who purchased on Thursday, they will definitely get loss. We want to say some thing that when all the markets of world did break 52 week low then why Indian market will not break also. Please do not happy on any recovery. There is sharper fall left to come in the market, which will, very painful to all the investors.
Today if Nifty Future trade above the level of 4011 then it can go up to the level of 4154 to 4251 but if Nifty Future go to break the level of 4011 then it can go below the level of 3880, 3702 to 3428.
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Target:-
1) Sell NF Below @ 4011 Target 3880-3702 to 3428.
2) Sell ASIANPAINT Below @ 1167 Target 1157-1139 to 1105.
3) Sell BAJAJAUTO Below @ 613 Target 574-529 to 457.
4) Sell BOB Below @ 321 Target 303-278 to 240.
5) Sell BHARTI Below @ 753 target 717-670 to 597.
6) Sell BHEL Below @ 1598 Target 1534-1449 to 1317.
7) Sell DABUR Below @ 87 Target 85-83 to 80.
8) Sell GNFC Below @ 96 Target 92-88 to 80.
9) Buy BOMDYEING Above @ 457 Target 470-485 to 518.
10) Buy HDFC Above @ 2131 target 2209-2280 to 2459.
11) Buy INFOSYS Above @ 1527 Target 1588-1646 to 1790.
12) Buy MARUTI Above @ 719 Target 747-774 to 841.
13) Buy SATYAM Above @ 340 Target 347-358 to 381.
14) Buy SUZLON Above @ 212 Target 226-241 to 277.
15) Buy TATAPOWER Above @ 948 Target 973-996 to 1055.
COMMODITIES MCX:-
1) Buy Gold Above @ 11380 Target 11415, 11434 to 11511.
2) Buy SILVER Above @ 18032 Target 18120, 18141 to 18358.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
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main Target level nifty--- 4033, 3484 & 2604 sensex-- 13538, 11727 & 9071.( date -21-03-2008)
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