Gap ups - Gap downs are the characteristic of the Sensex currently and will continue to remain so and traders would need to wait for the right days to make a kill and then relax again. Sensex took a pullback exactly from 15100 odd which was the recent top. One gap filled at 14750 but another opened up at 14600 on downside ! . Technically the view remains the same as before.
As said before the corrective phase from 12500 should last around 50 sessions where in the range would be 13300( worst case ) /13700( ideal ) and 15500 ( ideal was said then too ) /15800/16400( optimistic ) on upside . We are just 15-20 sessions through so technically one can expect this range to remain !!!.
Market observations :
Buy on rumours Sell on News -- this principle will be followed forever in all markets and dats wat we saw today on global indices. But the developments dont die of so easily and impact keeps coming slowly in the long run.
One view from mkt ppl -- Suddenly all the factors for asian indices are turning around. Crude is down frm 145 to 105 , Inflation is almost near to peak, Govt steps , deals etc. Every where round the world is talking about a bear market but in such a scenario markets dont need much of an immediate reason to fall coz trend is wea . When markets start looking for reasons for falls in bear markets would simply mean ending days ! . Equities want crude to rise ! , Govt to waver , Deals to blow, banks to go bankrupt. Similarly vice versa works for bull markets dont reasons to move up but crude wants hurricanes , dollar etc !!!! ... Interesting view.
Crude is slowly drifting and make a lower low yet again today and the next level to watchout is 98-100 which is very important.
Stocks to watchout for :
Century Textiles is seeing good volumes and hasnt seen much of a bounce from lows. Above 510 could see a quick 10-15 % move.
Lakshmi Cotsyn ( 526049 ) is setting up for a possible breakout technically. Sustained closing above 115-117 could tgt 135-150 in medium term. Investors can also have a funda check done.
Nifty :: Given breakout of strong resistance 4485, and close slightly below it. Now for 9thSep. 4485 works as momentum level, above 4485 momentum seems up , below 4485 momentum down. Still Nifty below red downward channel, and its works as strong resistance for up move. In this corrective up move avoid buying at higher level. Above 4485 our strategy for 9th Sep buy in deep sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 4485/4522/4558/4569/4624/4636.. Strong supports at 4420/4391/4 STOCK OF THE DAY : ONGC is one of my favorite stocks; this stock is often used by the operators for Index management when RIL is under stress. I have been repeating often for any rally in Nifty to be sustainable the KING (RIL) has to show the moves. So far RIL has only shown signs of stress and ONGC has been shouldering the responsibility of carrying NIFTY to a certain extent, but now I feel ONGC needs to rest and take a breather. A very quick analysis I will do and see if I can come out with some logic behind by thoughts. The Weekly Picture: A nice inverse H&S on the weekly, signaling a breakout above, 1135/50 on sustainable basis. The flip side is that the price is way above the value area (the MA’s) so if already missed the train, no point in getting in now, better to wait for retracement back to the value zone. Also noticeable is the decrease in volumes, ONGC is looking to go back and retest 1040 and 1000 to cement its position. The Daily Drama: Here also we can see that the price has reached its logical target the upper channel line and now looks to retrace to its values zone between 1040/50. There is a negative divergence building in the MACD histogram. Another noticeable thing is that we have a very steep up trend line (drawn in pink) which is unlikely to hold. A break of this trend line doesn’t mean a change in trend (that will only happen if we trade below 950), it can just mean some sideways consolidation and making of a shallower and a stronger trend line. The Hourly Break: Here also we see that the price has retraced after touching the upper channel line, making a multiple top. A huge negative divergence I MACD histogram, though the MA’s suggest a support at 1070 but real support is in the form of the two converging trend lines at 1040! Below is the RS chart, see the blue line in the lower pane, that’s the RS line of ONGC vis a vis Nifty. This line has been rising since June, see the gradient of the trend line on the RS, it looks unsustainable and hinting that in the near future ONGC needs to pause for a while. Am I bearish on ONGC? Nope I won’t short it here but would rather look to enter this beauty on retracement. When some one says Long term investment the first thing to come in mind is Patience.
NAME: SHORT EDUCOMP (3750-3755)
SL : 3805
TRGT: 3693-3680
REVISED SL TO : 3770 IF 3720 IS ACHVD.
********Technicals***** ~September 8~
Nifty breaks the triangle on upside but RSI and stochastics still in triangle so sideway trend should continue with negative bias in the now 4200-4550 range.
Head and shoulder is also forming which is very bearish
***Nifty**** ~ September 8~
Nifty (September) future premium increased
to 24 points and around 1 lakh shares were added in open
interest. with increase in the cost of carry,
indicating new long at lower levels.
***Options**** ~September 8~
Nifty call option added 10.6 lakh shares in open interest, whereas
put option added 22 lakh shares in open interest.Thus open interest put-call ratioincreased to 1.31 from 1.28.
********Fund flow*** ~ September 5~
~FII index fut – 633 cr
~FII stock fut – 743 cr
~FII cash -1737 cr!!!!!!!!!!!
~Mut cash -99 cr
*******total fund flow -3212 cr today & nifty was down by 95 points.
****** so far net fund flow of -2448 cr in September series. (nifty is up in September series).Thus upside if any in market will be limited only.
***********Past fund flow**********
~ Net fund flow of 6474 cr in July series. (Nifty 18 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)
happy trading and investing.
Do you know an investment of Rs. 10,000 in Wipro in 1979 would be worth more than 200 Cr. today. Believe it or not but this is the fact.
So all of you all may be searching for another Wipro. But no one knows which company will be Wipro.
How to analyse the stocks for long term ? - My Six Sigmas.
1. Check the market cap. Select a company preferably in a market cap of 3 figures. Less the market cap the more is the advancement oppurtunities.
2. Look for an upcoming sector. eg . Telecom and Pharma. An example is China Mobile worlds largest mobile company. Every body needs a cell phone. Telecom is sure to rock.
3. Look for resources Example - Land. Look for companies which have good amount of property. As most money made is in Property and Development.
4. Increasing profits in balance sheet on year over year basis. A tip check for PAT.
5. Future Order value. Example LNT is one good stock.
6. Be Confident in your Scrip.
Research Report
Initiating Coverage: ORG Infomatics Limited
CMP: Rs. 30.00
Target: 35, 58 & 102
52 Weeks High: Rs. 125
Book Value / Share: Rs.. 60.84
Duration: 2 Weeks, 3 Months & 1 Year
Recommendation: VERY STRONG BUY
Introduction
ORG is engaged in the business of Systems Integration, Service, and Telecom. It focuses on IT & Telecom convergence segment. ORG provides complete integrated solutions in fields of enterprise management, value added services, billing & OSS, VSAT & bandwidth solutions, wireless solutions, networking and infrastructure services.
Company Background
ORG group was established in 1960 by Dr Vikram Sarabhai (founder of IIM-A and ISRO) to facilitate scientific approach for data collection and information analysis to optimize business operations. Global Asia Partners LP, US investment fund, infused equity funds into ORG and Ajoy Khanderia, General Partner of the fund became the CEO. GAP is not just equity owner of the company; it has also infused Rs47.8mn through loan that is 63% of total loan amount as on Mar-05.
Business MIX
ORG is engaged in the business of Systems Integration, Service, and Telecom. It focuses on IT & Telecom convergence segment. ORG provides complete integrated solutions in fields of enterprise management, value added services, billing & OSS, VSAT & bandwidth solutions, wireless solutions, networking and infrastructure services.
Technically Speaking
ORG INFORMATICS looks good at daily charts, traded above it 50 Day DMA 25.70 and 50 Day EMA of 27.75. ORG INFORMATICS Resist at 31-32 level as we seen in graph that upper trend line act as a Resistance level that is 31-32.
RESISTANCE: ORG INFORMATICS stiff Resistance comes at 31-32 level if scrip maintain this level than it will go for target 35-42-50 level soon.
SUPPORT: Support comes for ORG at 25 i.e. 50 Day DMA level and if scrip slip below this than 23-18 are the support zone for ORG INFORMATICS.
Few Important Points
It has book value at Rs 60 and overseas Belgium company which they acquired would post sales of 100 crore , also they have order worth Rs 300 crore on their hand. Current year consolidates sales would be Rs 400 crore and net profit at Rs 20-25 crore.
It is a supplier to our Defence also, please check website
http://www.bseindia.com/
Check new orders it secured
http://www.bseindia.com/
Belgium Satellite is 5th largest company in Europe, check this website of the company
http://www.bssteleport.com/
Quarter profit is at Rs 3.4 crore which gives yearly EPS of 8-10.Stock has high of Rs 125 and Low of Rs 19. Six month price average is Rs 55.
It is a premier company available at Throw away price.
Buy as it is a risk free stock and would move to Rs 90-100 within couple of months. Week target at Rs 35-40.
morning thoughts
As said and expected the markets decepted traders and rallied with a vengeance. However the nifty faced stiff resistance around 4580 levels and could not take off the highs of the day.
On technical parameters the 30 hema and hourly charts suggests some more upsides , but with sluggishness and choppiness.
Structurally the markets need a close above 4655 levels for a fresh upmove , similarly a closing above 15600 will ensure some strong upmoves in days to come
The supports for the nifty is at 4395 levels and resistance at 4625 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14750 levels and resistance at 15555 levels
Stocks to watch
Org info
Gokul
Banking nifty and individual banking stocks like icici looks weak for downsides.
Ibrealest looks weak and can be shorted at higher levels
Tata power looks weak at higher levels
Today at 1.05 pm , a major change of planets is marking a big deceptive and trapping move…
All the traders are likely to get trapped…up or down…?
We are continously telling about a big and major move coming, this is just a beginning, a major deceptive move is yet to come - Sensex 4000 up or down, nifty 3600 or 5400
Our adv prediction given to clients: with Jupiter and Pluto turning direct …capital, power , textiles, financial stocks will outperform
GET READY FOR THE BIGGEST DECEPTION ..UP ..? OR DOWN..?
A CRUCIAL BASE WILL BE LAID FOR FUTURE MOVE.
WE SEE A MAJOR AND BIG MOVE COMING SOON...? UP OR DOWN..?
IT WILL CREATE THE BIGGEST DECEPTION ...?
SENSEX 3000 POINTS UP ..OR DOWN.....?
NIFTY 3600 ..? OR 5400.....?
This is as crazy as it can get - look at the last four bars - Tuesday a big move up, Wednesday we were closed, Thursday we ended up inside Tuesdays bar, and Friday we gapped down in response to a 300 drop in the US markets and today we celebrate the Fannie May / Freddie Mac episode with a 145 point gap up ! But at the end of the day, we are below Tuesdays close !SellICICIBANKbel736tgt728, 715sl742
SellRELCAPITALbel1390tgt1375, 1360sl1396
SellRELIANCEbel2170tgt2150, 2130sl2180
Nifty (spot) 4482.30
Short term Technical View of Nifty
Now, Nifty is likely to rally towards 4700 by this month end and the next short term correction is likely to occur around 4700 level. This view holds good as long as Nifty stays above 4350.
Instead, if it fails to hold above 4350 level, then it could decline towards 4200.
Extreme Short term technical view of Nifty
In the extreme short term, the level 4570 is crucial. If Nifty sustains above this level, then it is likely to rally towards 4700. If not it is likely to trade between 4570 and 4450 for few trading sessions before moving towards 4700.
Today, if Nifty trades above 4515, then it could test 4570 and above 4570, it could test 4600. Instead, if it fails to move above 4515, then it could test 4460.
Trading Strategy for Nifty
For intraday, the crucial level is 4515. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.
Positional traders can hold their longs if Nifty moves above 4570. If not, exit and re enter at lower levels with a stop at 4450.
Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 02 July 2008
The medium term outlook of Nifty has turned bullish and it is likely to move towards 5500 by this year end and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays above 3600.
Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 02 July 2008
The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bullish and it seems that Nifty is in the middle of this bull run. So, the bullrun is likely to continue for another 4 to 5 years and this view holds good as long as Nifty stays above 3600.
Short term trading calls of Stocks
The short term trend of this scrip is looking bullish and it is likely to test 700 in the short term and this view holds good as long as it sustains above 530.
On contrary, if it trades below 530, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 450.
For intraday, the crucial level is 583. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.
Positional traders can initiate longs on declines with a stop at 530 for a target of 700.
Aban offshore
The short term trend of this scrip is looking bullish and it is likely to test 2500 in the short term and this view holds good as long as it sustains above 2270. The scrip is likely to see a short term correction around 2500-2550 level.
On contrary, if it moves below 2270, then the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 2100.
For Intraday, the crucial level is 2350. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.
Positional traders can hold this scrip with a stop at 2270 for a target of 2500.
L&T
The short term trend of this scrip is looking bullish and it is likely to test 3000 in the short term and this view holds good as long as it sustains above 2680.
On contrary, if it trades below 2680, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 2600.
For intraday, the crucial level is 2765. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.
Positional traders can initiate longs on declines with a stop at 2680.
ICICI Bank
The short term trend of this scrip is looking bullish and it is likely to test 800 in the short term and this view holds good as long as it sustains above 680.
On contrary, if it trades below 680, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 600.
For intraday, the crucial level is 735. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.
Positional traders can initiate longs on declines with a stop at 680 for a target of 800.
IFCI
The short term trend of this scrip is looking bullish and it is likely to test 55 in the short term and this view holds good as long as it sustains above 45.
On contrary, if it trades below 45, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 40.
Trading Strategy for SBI
For intraday, the crucial level is 46. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.
Positional traders can initiate longs on declines with a stop at 45.
Nifty (4482) Sup 4405 Res 4550
Buy HUL (253) SL 250
Target 259, 261
Sell Bajaj Auto (599) SL 604
Target 590, 587
Buy Sterlite (622) SL 616
Target 632, 636
Buy ONGC
Nifty :: Given breakout of strong resistance 4485, and close slightly below it. Now for 9thSep. 4485 works as momentum level, above 4485 momentum seems up , below 4485 momentum down. Still Nifty below red downward channel, and its works as strong resistance for up move. In this corrective up move avoid buying at higher level. Above 4485 our strategy for 9th Sep buy in deep sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 4485/4522/4558/4569/4624/4636.. Strong supports at 4420/4391/4 STOCK OF THE DAY : ONGC is one of my favorite stocks; this stock is often used by the operators for Index management when RIL is under stress. I have been repeating often for any rally in Nifty to be sustainable the KING (RIL) has to show the moves. So far RIL has only shown signs of stress and ONGC has been shouldering the responsibility of carrying NIFTY to a certain extent, but now I feel ONGC needs to rest and take a breather. A very quick analysis I will do and see if I can come out with some logic behind by thoughts. The Weekly Picture: A nice inverse H&S on the weekly, signaling a breakout above, 1135/50 on sustainable basis. The flip side is that the price is way above the value area (the MA’s) so if already missed the train, no point in getting in now, better to wait for retracement back to the value zone. Also noticeable is the decrease in volumes, ONGC is looking to go back and retest 1040 and 1000 to cement its position. The Daily Drama: Here also we can see that the price has reached its logical target the upper channel line and now looks to retrace to its values zone between 1040/50. There is a negative divergence building in the MACD histogram. Another noticeable thing is that we have a very steep up trend line (drawn in pink) which is unlikely to hold. A break of this trend line doesn’t mean a change in trend (that will only happen if we trade below 950), it can just mean some sideways consolidation and making of a shallower and a stronger trend line. The Hourly Break: Here also we see that the price has retraced after touching the upper channel line, making a multiple top. A huge negative divergence I MACD histogram, though the MA’s suggest a support at 1070 but real support is in the form of the two converging trend lines at 1040! Below is the RS chart, see the blue line in the lower pane, that’s the RS line of ONGC vis a vis Nifty. This line has been rising since June, see the gradient of the trend line on the RS, it looks unsustainable and hinting that in the near future ONGC needs to pause for a while. Am I bearish on ONGC? Nope I won’t short it here but would rather look to enter this beauty on retracement. When some one says Long term investment the first thing to come in mind is Patience.
NAME: SHORT EDUCOMP (3750-3755)
SL : 3805
TRGT: 3693-3680
REVISED SL TO : 3770 IF 3720 IS ACHVD.********Technicals***** ~September 8~
Nifty breaks the triangle on upside but RSI and stochastics still in triangle so sideway trend should continue with negative bias in the now 4200-4550 range.
Head and shoulder is also forming which is very bearish
***Nifty**** ~ September 8~
Nifty (September) future premium increased
to 24 points and around 1 lakh shares were added in open
interest. with increase in the cost of carry,
indicating new long at lower levels.
***Options**** ~September 8~
Nifty call option added 10.6 lakh shares in open interest, whereas
put option added 22 lakh shares in open interest.Thus open interest put-call ratioincreased to 1.31 from 1.28.
********Fund flow*** ~ September 5~
~FII index fut – 633 cr
~FII stock fut – 743 cr
~FII cash -1737 cr!!!!!!!!!!!
~Mut cash -99 cr
*******total fund flow -3212 cr today & nifty was down by 95 points.
****** so far net fund flow of -2448 cr in September series. (nifty is up in September series).Thus upside if any in market will be limited only.
***********Past fund flow**********
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +18 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
~Net fund flow of -6641 cr in August series. (Nifty -119 in series, closed at 4214)
happy trading and investing.
Do you know an investment of Rs. 10,000 in Wipro in 1979 would be worth more than 200 Cr. today. Believe it or not but this is the fact.
So all of you all may be searching for another Wipro. But no one knows which company will be Wipro.
How to analyse the stocks for long term ? - My Six Sigmas.
1. Check the market cap. Select a company preferably in a market cap of 3 figures. Less the market cap the more is the advancement oppurtunities.
2. Look for an upcoming sector. eg . Telecom and Pharma. An example is China Mobile worlds largest mobile company. Every body needs a cell phone. Telecom is sure to rock.
3. Look for resources Example - Land. Look for companies which have good amount of property. As most money made is in Property and Development.
4. Increasing profits in balance sheet on year over year basis. A tip check for PAT.
5. Future Order value. Example LNT is one good stock.
6. Be Confident in your Scrip.
Research Report
Initiating Coverage: ORG Infomatics Limited
CMP: Rs. 30.00
Target: 35, 58 & 102
52 Weeks High: Rs. 125
Book Value / Share: Rs.. 60.84
Duration: 2 Weeks, 3 Months & 1 Year
Recommendation: VERY STRONG BUY
Introduction
ORG is engaged in the business of Systems Integration, Service, and Telecom. It focuses on IT & Telecom convergence segment. ORG provides complete integrated solutions in fields of enterprise management, value added services, billing & OSS, VSAT & bandwidth solutions, wireless solutions, networking and infrastructure services.
Company Background
ORG group was established in 1960 by Dr Vikram Sarabhai (founder of IIM-A and ISRO) to facilitate scientific approach for data collection and information analysis to optimize business operations. Global Asia Partners LP, US investment fund, infused equity funds into ORG and Ajoy Khanderia, General Partner of the fund became the CEO. GAP is not just equity owner of the company; it has also infused Rs47.8mn through loan that is 63% of total loan amount as on Mar-05.
Business MIX
ORG is engaged in the business of Systems Integration, Service, and Telecom. It focuses on IT & Telecom convergence segment. ORG provides complete integrated solutions in fields of enterprise management, value added services, billing & OSS, VSAT & bandwidth solutions, wireless solutions, networking and infrastructure services.
Technically Speaking
ORG INFORMATICS looks good at daily charts, traded above it 50 Day DMA 25.70 and 50 Day EMA of 27.75. ORG INFORMATICS Resist at 31-32 level as we seen in graph that upper trend line act as a Resistance level that is 31-32.
RESISTANCE: ORG INFORMATICS stiff Resistance comes at 31-32 level if scrip maintain this level than it will go for target 35-42-50 level soon.
SUPPORT: Support comes for ORG at 25 i.e. 50 Day DMA level and if scrip slip below this than 23-18 are the support zone for ORG INFORMATICS.
Few Important Points
It has book value at Rs 60 and overseas Belgium company which they acquired would post sales of 100 crore +, also they have order worth Rs 300 crore on their hand. Current year consolidates sales would be Rs 400 crore and net profit at Rs 20-25 crore.
It is a supplier to our Defence also, please check website
http://www.bseindia.com/
Check new orders it secured
http://www.bseindia.com/
Belgium Satellite is 5th largest company in Europe, check this website of the company
http://www.bssteleport.com/
Quarter profit is at Rs 3.4 crore which gives yearly EPS of 8-10.Stock has high of Rs 125 and Low of Rs 19. Six month price average is Rs 55.
It is a premier company available at Throw away price.
Buy as it is a risk free stock and would move to Rs 90-100 within couple of months. Week target at Rs 35-40.
morning thoughts
As said and expected the markets decepted traders and rallied with a vengeance. However the nifty faced stiff resistance around 4580 levels and could not take off the highs of the day.
On technical parameters the 30 hema and hourly charts suggests some more upsides , but with sluggishness and choppiness.
Structurally the markets need a close above 4655 levels for a fresh upmove , similarly a closing above 15600 will ensure some strong upmoves in days to come
The supports for the nifty is at 4395 levels and resistance at 4625 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14750 levels and resistance at 15555 levels
Stocks to watch
Org info
Gokul
Banking nifty and individual banking stocks like icici looks weak for downsides.
Ibrealest looks weak and can be shorted at higher levels
Tata power looks weak at higher levels
Today at 1.05 pm , a major change of planets is marking a big deceptive and trapping move…
All the traders are likely to get trapped…up or down…?
We are continously telling about a big and major move coming, this is just a beginning, a major deceptive move is yet to come - Sensex 4000 up or down, nifty 3600 or 5400
Our adv prediction given to clients: with Jupiter and Pluto turning direct …capital, power , textiles, financial stocks will outperform
GET READY FOR THE BIGGEST DECEPTION ..UP ..? OR DOWN..?
A CRUCIAL BASE WILL BE LAID FOR FUTURE MOVE.
WE SEE A MAJOR AND BIG MOVE COMING SOON...? UP OR DOWN..?
IT WILL CREATE THE BIGGEST DECEPTION ...?
SENSEX 3000 POINTS UP ..OR DOWN.....?
NIFTY 3600 ..? OR 5400.....?
This is as crazy as it can get - look at the last four bars - Tuesday a big move up, Wednesday we were closed, Thursday we ended up inside Tuesdays bar, and Friday we gapped down in response to a 300+ drop in the US markets and today we celebrate the Fannie May / Freddie Mac episode with a 145 point gap up ! But at the end of the day, we are below Tuesdays close !
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