Market may open down. Market may up between 10.27 and 10.45 Market may steady or up side between 13.22 and 13.39. Market may close at up to previous closing.
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Opening Bell Call
Buy
BAJAJ-AUTO - Bajaj Auto Limited
BOMDYEING - Bombay Dyeing & Mfg Co. Ltd
KOTAKBANK - Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited
SBIN - State Bank of India
On 10th September 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 14,662 (down 238 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4400 (down 68 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
BAJAJHIND - Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd
BHARTIARTL - Bharti Airtel Limited
CENTURYTEX - Century Textiles & Industries Ltd
DLF - DLF Limited
HDIL - Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited
Technical Analysis for 11th September 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 14712, 14635, 14558, 14507, 14455, 14326, 14198, 14069
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 14764, 14815, 14892, 14969, 15097, 15226, 15354, 15483
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4416, 4391, 4365, 4348, 4331, 4288, 4246, 4203, 4161
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4433, 4450, 4476, 4501, 4543, 4586, 4628, 4671
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex almost came down to 14600 and followed the pattern of making gaps then filling it in next few sessions. Yet again the view remains the same 14400 and 15100 will be important levels in extreme short term. Traders need to be patient and wait for the right momentum days to trade then do compulsive trade. In the range bound times there could
Market Observations and thoughts :
Crude continues the drift downwards around 101-102 close to 100-98 support zone. Gold also has broken below 780 and can go all the way upto 725. Silver has seen the biggest selloff from 21 to 11 !!!. This is how commodities tend to fall one side as was discussed many times before.
Stocks to watchout for :
Sterlite tech could not cross 200. Ifci did 50 before coming down .
Watchout for Bank of India, IOB , BOB and SBI as all these PSU banks r seeing good volumes and may run if inflation comes lower then expectation. ( Also read base effect calculation on inflation in post below )
Would wait for some intra -day breakouts as of now not many stocks seeing much momentum .
As said and expected the markets remained volatile and choppy .
Technically the markets are in a consolidation mood and in an over stretched zone.
The markets are likely to be volatile with two sided movement and deception.
However the markets are waiting for fresh triggers for any directional move.
The inflation if comes around and can come around 11.95% can initiate a boost .
The supports for the nifty is at 4350 levels and resistance at 4575 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14350 levels and resistance at 14990 levels
Stocks to watch
Rpower
Psl
Selected banking stocks
Nifty :: Two bar reversal pattern still Nifty made an insider bar.. As per yesterday post 4558 (high) – 4358 (low) of 8th Sep. works as an important level any side break out given major up or down swing.. Now for 11th Sep. 4430 works as trend decider. Above 4430 momentum seems up, below 4392 momentum seems down.. Watch strong support 4325/4220.. Our strategy for 11th Sep. up to 4325 Buy on deep sell at high (S.L 4467).. Resistance for up move at 4430/4437/4467/4497/4541.. Supports at 4392/4358/4345/ 4325/4220..
(Gold and Silver break an important support and turn down sharply ,But Oil still above strong support $ 99/ $100 )
RSI and stochastics still in triangle.
***Derivatives (September 10)
The Nifty opened with a downward gap of about 50 points consequent to bad American and Asian markets. After some initial hitches and an hour of range bound trading, it staged a good recovery to fill the gap with which it had opened but at 12:30pm it started the southward journey once again and this time it was a consistent fall. A little bit of recovery in the last 30 minutes made the Nifty end the day with a loss of 68 points and the BSE Sensex closed 238 points in the red. In the international scene, as the things stand now (at the time of writing), crude, after making a low at $101.50, is now trading close to $102.50, FTSE closed about 50 points down, while Dow Jones is about 90 points in the green after a loss of 280 points yesterday.
Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. Along with the prices, at the bottom is shown the stochastics oscillator. As can be seen from the chart, the Nifty opened the day with a huge upward gap on 8th Sep 2008. This gap up opening was fully closed/filled today and it was then that the recovery came about in the last 30 minutes. Also shown on the chart is a small trading range within which the prices are moving for the last six days. This range is between 4340 and 4520. A move outside this range will give us a tradeable move in the short term. A trendline in black color has also been drawn on the chart connecting the pivot lows formed from 28th of last month till date. If one looks at the stochastics oscillator, one can see that a buy signal was given today in the last 30 minutes when the %K line (red) crossed the %D line (black) upwards, which is again a short term bullish sign. So, it makes sense to buy Nifty or Nifty calls for the short term with a stop loss of 4380.
Sensex : (14662.61) Today Sensex face resistance at 14724, if cross 14724 then goes up to 14840 and 15017. Sensex find support at 14547, if 14547 break then fall up to 14431 and 14254.
Nifty : (4400.25) Today Nifty face resistance at 4416, if cross 4416 then goes up to 4452 and 4480. Nifty find support at 4374-4364, if break 4364 then fall up to 4328-4300.
buyICICIBANKabv708tgt714, 721sl704
sellICICIBANKbel704tgt700, 696sl708
sellRELCAPITALbel1327tgt1320, 1314sl1331
buyBANKINDIAabv294.5tgt297, 300sl291
buyNiftyfuturesabv4435tgt4450, 4475sl4420
sellNiftyfuturesbel4420tgt4400, 4380sl4435
buyICICIBANK700CAabv32tgt37, 41sl25
Hope all njoyed ongc short ifci long mkt bull/bear v identify u njoy profit no loss only profit. Everything b'4 it happens v intimate u. Our exclusive telescope will tell b'4 move happens. OBC worst is over. Grasim ready to move.Drreddy anytime move. Ask (o)ur friends they will tell success story of win win method in market Tea Sector looks gud for medium term. Bye, Ill Judgment Wednesday, September 10, 2008 Though oil finally slipped below 100 usd which was never even thought of by the bears, the equity market is still nervous. The reason is only one. Bears are selling heavily and buying not coming forth from FII's. Well, no problem at all. Oil is set to fall to 72 usd or now may be even 65 which is not the aberration of demand and supply. This is proven from the OPEC statement which has refused to cut down the production. The fall in OIL is due to long trapping and fresh shorting. If short sellers can sell equity at 15000 with everything slowly turning positive I can't believe that Oil traders can't short at 70 usd also. The hope to go for kill is more passionate with bears. House is assembling on 17th Oct and on the first day it will consider passing insurance bill. FDI will be allowed at 74%. This will pave way for foreign partners to raise their stakes in their insurance biz. 3 strong contenders for stake sell are in the row. Kotak Bank, IILL and IDBI. The announcement officially for insurance FDI could be out in media in the first week of the Oct 2008. Market has created a perfect pitch for a long term bull rally as short term traders and fricky investors prefer to go short and short on the premise that market is failing to cross major barriers. This is not new for me. This has been happening from last 5 years and also from recent low of 3700 to 4500. Whenever market entered into bull phase it did not allow any traders to earn money. The overall performance of all the traders is still minus because of the huge dilemma they are into it. On the contrary Cni has been very successful in generating calls which has been giving good amount of profits. At the end of the day you can earn only through limited stocks and through positional calls. Keep very close watch on R Power for next 2 to 3 weeks. We are extremely positive on IFCI and IDBI and every opportunity in the dip should be considered as golden opportunity to enter golden stocks. For sure they will not become Fanie and Famie in India. Men of ill judgment oft ignore the good that lies within their hands, till they have lost it.
Triveni Engineering & Industries LTD (BSE CODE: 532356)
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CMP | Rs.1048 |
| Target (1-year) | Rs.1358 |
| Date | Sept 10th 2008 |
| Sector | Power Generation and Supply |
| Face Value | Rs.10 |
| BSE Code | 500400 |
| 52 Week H/L | Rs. 1641/721 |
| Market Cap | Rs. 23145Cr |
Investment Rationale
Tata Power Company Limited (TPC), India's largest integrated Electric Power Utility in private sector with a reputation for reliability, incorporated in the year 1919 at Mumbai. TPC pioneered the generation of electricity in India nine decades ago. The core business of Tata Power Company is to generate, transmit and distribute electricity. The Company operates in two business segments: Power and Other. The Power segment is engaged in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The other segment deals with electronic equipment, project consultancy.
In Q1FY09, Tata Power's top line grew by 34.0% to Rs 2,026.1 crore from Rs 1,511.5 crore, mainly on account of higher tariff rate. The EBITDA in the period grew by 10.4% to Rs 392.11 crore from Rs 355.1 crore. PAT of the company during the quarter was marginally up by 0.2% to Rs 190.6 crore while after adjusting statutory appropriations it was down by 11.8% to Rs 162.6 crore against Rs 184.4 crore in previous corresponding quarter.
Key Developments
Huge Expansion Plan
Tata Power Company Ltd (TPCL) announced purchase of 11.4% (2.94 crore shares) stake in Australia based geothermal energy generation company Geodynamics Limited at an issue price of A$1.4 (total deal size of ~Rs 165 crore).
Financial Performance
Net sales up by 34 percent in Q1FY08- In Q1FY09, Tata Power's top line grew by 34.0% to Rs 2,026.1 crore from Rs 1,511.5 crore, mainly on account of higher tariff rate. The EBITDA in the period grew by 9.3% to Rs 392.11 crore from Rs 358.75 crore. PAT of the company during the quarter was marginally up by 0.2% to Rs 190.6 crore while after adjusting statutory appropriations it was down by 11.8% to Rs 162.6 crore against Rs 184.4 crore in previous corresponding quarter.
Valuations
Industry Scenario
Over the last 2 years, electricity demand in India has grown at a 9.4% CAGR. This has raised hopes that India may see a J-curve in power demand, similar to that seen in India's telecom sector or China's power sector. However, this looks unlikely in the medium term as:
- Power tariffs may not drop as much as telecom tariffs.
- India's manufacturing economy is not as energy intensive as that of China, and a large section of wholesale buyers already buy as much power as they can collect.
Obviously, the worsening demand-supply gap has put a lot of pressure on short-term (merchant) tariffs—the pricing basis for less than 3% of total demand—rising as much as 3-5x regulated tariffs.
Growth Drivers
Huge Opportunity Available
The per capita consumption of electricity in India continues to be woefully low at ~704.2 Kwh compared to the world average of ~2,400 Kwh. For India, to maintain its trajectory of high growth, we believe, investment in the power sector (generation, transmission, and distribution) is inevitable and this precisely forms the basis of our conviction on growth in the sector.
Government's Vision
The Government vision to improve the infrastructure of the country is helping the Power sector. The optimism of Government and the kind of investment that is planned in the 11th plan (Generation - Rs. 410896 crore, Transmission - Rs. 140000 crore, Distribution - 287000 crore) makes the sector look very lucrative.
Developments and Impact
Tata Power Company Ltd (TPCL) announced purchase of 11.4% (2.94 crore shares) stake in Australia based geothermal energy generation company Geodynamics Limited at an issue price of A$1.4 (total deal size of ~Rs 165 crore).
TPCL agreed to buy 2.94 crore shares @ A$1.5/share. The total size of the deal would be ~Rs 165 crore (assuming A$=Rs 37.5). In addition, one attaching unquoted placement option exercisable at A$2.25/share for every two shares issued (i.e. 1.47 crore options) and expiring on 28th February, 2009 are included in the investment.
The deal brightens the future revenue generating aspects of TPCL in Australia. As Australia Government has target to generate ~20% of the country's electricity generation to come from renewable resources by 2020. The Australian Government also announced A$50 million in funding for the geothermal industry to help make the technology viable for base-load energy production.
Dagachhu Hydro Electric Power Project
Tata Power has agreed to take 26% equity stake in 114MW run-of-the-river Dagachhu Hydro Electric Power Project being developed by the Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) over river Dagachhu through Druk Green Power Corporation Limited (DGPC). The project will be executed by the Special Purpose Vehicle-Dagachhu Hydro Power Corporation Limited (DHPC). The company also agreed to off-take power from the project for a period of 25 years and the power will be delivered at INDIA-bhutan Border.
NDPL
The company has acquired 51% stake in North Delhi Power Limited (NDPL), making it a subsidiary of Tata Power at the end of FY08. Thus, the full year revenue of it will be booked during FY09. During FY08 NDPL posted a net profit of Rs 281.58 crore. Recently it has received an international award for its outstanding improvements in operations and asset management using GE Energy's Smallworld geographic information system platform as the primary source of data for the enterprise.
Considering all the above developments, we are very optimistic about the company. The company is poised to become a big player in future.
Financials
| Period Ended |
| Quarter Ended | Year Ended | |||||
| Jun' 09 | Jun' 08 | %Ch | Mar' 08 | Mar' 07 | %Ch | |
| Net Sales | 2026.13 | 1511.5 | 34.05% | 5915.9 | 4715.3 | 25.46% |
| Other Income | 48.31 | 106.33 | -54.57% | 465.84 | 343.99 | 35.42% |
| Total Income | 2074.44 | 1617.8 | 28.23% | 6381.8 | 5059.3 | 26.14% |
| Total Expenditure | 1682.33 | 1259.1 | 33.62% | 4953.5 | 3991.9 | 24.09% |
| Raw Material consumed | 8.26 | 14.94 | -44.71% | 38.9 | 81.91 | -52.51% |
| as % of sales | 0.41% | 0.99% |
| 0.66% | 1.74% |
|
| Employee Expenses | 71.69 | 64.74 | 10.74% | 249.69 | 191.9 | 30.11% |
| as % of sales | 3.54% | 4.28% |
| 4.22% | 4.07% |
|
| Power, Oil & Fuel | 1289.36 | 877.8 | 46.89% | 3714.99 | 2708.91 | 37.14% |
| as % of sales | 63.64% | 58.08% |
| 62.80% | 57.45% |
|
| Cost of power purchased | 264.87 | 208.51 | 27.03% | 548.87 | 664.58 | -17.41% |
| as % of sales | 13.07% | 13.80% |
| 9.28% | 14.09% |
|
| Exchange (Gain) / Loss | -38.89 | 0 |
| -32.01 | 0 |
|
| as % of sales | -1.92% | 0.00% |
| -0.54% | 0.00% |
|
| Other Exp | 87.04 | 93.07 | -6.48% | 433.09 | 344.58 | 25.69% |
| as % of sales | 4.30% | 6.16% |
| 7.32% | 7.31% |
|
| Operating Profit (EXCL OI) | 343.8 | 252.42 | ||||
| Wednesday 291K View as HTML Download |
| Todays Case - Mumbai S.E. |
| KOHINOOR BRO (531366) - 10 Sep. Price: 6.60 |
| KOHINOOR BRO has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development. Has broken the resistance at 6.07 of a rectangle pattern, which signals a further rise. The stock has broken up through the resistance at 6.10. This predicts a further rise. Volume tops correspond well with price tops, and volume bottoms correspond well with price bottoms. Volume balance is also positive, which strengthens the stock. RSI diverges positively against the price, which indicates a possibility for a reaction up. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term. |
| The medium long term: Positive candidate |
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______________________________
Resistance : 4511-4537.
Support : 4427-4397.
Stock Close Trading Ideas.
______________________________
(1) State Bank
Buy with stop Loss 167 for target 172-174
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