NEWSLETTER

(Hemanshu Pandey)

Nifty zoomed up 20% to touch an important trend line from below. This trendline was the support for the entire bull market from 2002 to 2008. After forming a trough, Nifty zoomed up on Monday 18th May, 2009 and touched this trendline. Now it will require a lot of money to push Nifty above this trendline. Nifty can go higher as the trendline is trending higher but failure to close above this trendline and sustaining over it will be the key. Markets are tremendoulsy overobought and an investor or trader should wait for markets to stabilise and volatility to decrease before taking a further call. As for me, I am selling today now that markets are out of the "frozen zone"

The image is of Nifty in weekly time frame from 2002 to 18th May, 2009.

(Hemanshu Pandey)

NIIT Tech. has consolidated after making an all time high at 535 on 20th Feb, 2007 and now looks set to challenge that price. CMP is 487.65 and the breakout above 480 levels which was a supply zone has been on very good volumes suggesting a strong upmove. Stop loss for long positions should be 440 on closing basis and targets of 535 and 600 are achievable.

(Hemanshu Pandey)

Syndicate Bank (BSE code: 532276) after breaking out of the downward sloping trendline has made another leg up with above average volumes. CMP is 79.65, and above 80 the stock can touch 83 and then 86. Stop loss should be 76 on daily closing basis.

(Hemanshu Pandey)

S&P Nifty index has been falling for the past three sessions. Unable to make a new high the index is struggling at 4080 levels. A close below 4020 will be short term bearish and can take the index down to the 50 day moving average which is currently at 3866. Futures can be sold with a stop loss of 4200 on daily closing basis in spot nifty. Alternatively 3900 puts can be bought at 45-50 Rs. These puts have the potential to double.

Agro Tech Foods 12% , Patel Int 10% , Kirl Oil 10% ,Time Techno 17% , Dishman 5% , IFGL 6% , Avaya 7% up for the day and in cases more from recommended price. So a clear out performance of mid caps. Had suggested more before that.

Max India one of the favorites recommended at 105 is now at 180 + . Would recommend full booking and wait for declines to 150 -160. Continue to remain bullish on Fortis ,GDL,IFGL and others.

Have not covered other stocks recommended to clients which shooted up 10-25% quickly( Everonn, XL tele,SCI etc etc ) . Will be in the May monthly report of client calls.

PTC India and Godawari Power Ispat are seeing good volumes and can be bought on dips as institutional interest expected in the same on back of Power story. Buy arnd 77/71 and 90/84.

Bank Of Rajasthan has not moved up sharply in comparison to other small banks. Expect a quick 10-15% move. Buy on dips to 47 as a trade.

MICRO CAPS which can surprise in the next 1-2 months.

Emmsons International. cmp 44

Gonterman piepers cmp 19

Indo Wind Energy

Possible day trades in Mid caps for quick 5-15%.Stop of 4% frm yest closing price.

Manugraph ,Zee News ,Escorts, NDTV ( 1-4 sessions ) ,Rolta ( 1-4 sessions ) .

Sensex Technical View :

In a channel breakout we do see the targets being achieved in almost half the time of more the time it stays in the channel. Now what has happened is the gap away action has done the target in less than a month.

Some observations :

• The channel shown in red was almost 3250 points 8047 -11500 or 7700-10945.Close above 11500 pointed to a target of 11500 + 3250 which is equal to 14750 approx.
  
• As discussed in our detailed view many times 14500 is 50% retracement of the entire downfall from 21k-8k. An exaggerated move should not cross 61.8% level which comes to 16050 approx.
  
• Sensex has knocked largest volume since Jan 2008. Also to note that delivery volumes in todays trades are very high in many stocks. This indicates stock has changed hands which can either be distribution or huge buying by FIIs. Will be clear in next few weeks.
• Technically we might have seen a short term top or coming very close to it. If 14930 is crossed convincingly then we may see a spike to 15580/16050 ( lowest probability).
• On the short term gap at 13480 becomes a support to watch for in short term. For Nifty ( as per futures ) gap comes around 4050. So a new range maybe formed for the next few sessions 13480-14930 which if broken may lead to gap filling.

Large cap stocks like LnT,RIL,BHEL,BOB,PNB and others have over done the move and Investors stuck from higher levels should reduce exposure to the same and get back on 15% dips to reduce acquisition costs or shift to strong mid caps.

Stocks to watchout for :

Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank seems to have over run the move and have come close to January highs . This can be attributed to short covering. High risk players can short at 450/475 with a stop of 485 and 690/720 with a stop of 735 for a downside of 10-25% in both the stocks.

Even Stocks like LnT BHEL RIL etc seem to have over-done the move and those who are feeling left out of the rally should not concentrade on small cap and mid cap segment as thats the broader market which still looks very attractive.

Dishman Pharma, Time Techno shoots up. Remain bullish on Agro tech , Kirl Oil , Patel Int, IFGL,Aurion Pro with medium term view. SCI remain bullish and can be added again on dips to 100.

Low risk Investors who would like to park their money in safe stocks should look towards BOSCH , TIDE WATER , ATLAS COPCO on declines.

AVAYA GLOBAL - cmp 103.

The stock looks good for a bounce of 20-30% in short term technically. Also looks decent on fundamentals but needs further look. do your research before taking exposure. Can buy at 103/94 with a tgt of 115-125 in short term.


MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our yesterday post Nifty made an insider bar with negative bias after counterattack candle pattern.. Volume still at high even in side way momentum.. Still major breakout and breakdown level same as yesterday 4510/4167..Watch minor breakout level 4320/4363 and minor breakdown level 4244/4216 .. In side way momentum always book profit fast, hold your position only after major breakdown or breakout level.. We clearly indicate negative bias in yesterday post that’s why our strategy below 4363 sell at high (S.L 4363) Buy on deep (S.L 4167).. Resistance for up move at 4320/4363/4510.. Supports at 4244/4216/4167/4137/4022..

ss

Islands in the stream
That is what we are
No one in-between
How can we be wrong
Sail away with me to another world...

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on negative note ,but recovered in early trade and profit booking at higher levels and closed in negative zones .For coming if nifty trade below 4260 it can test 4187-4145 zone . On the upside trading above 4330 it will test 4380-4401 levels. We can see rally in mid cap counters.

NIFTY : (4270.30) Today Nifty face resistance at 4295, if cross 4295 then goes up to 4342 and 4410. Nifty find support at 4222, if 4222 break then fall up to 4174 and 4100.

ABAN : (874.05)

Sell Below 870 target 1-829, target 2-784, stop loss 904

HDIL : (296.85)

Sell Below 293 target 1-280, target 2-267, stop loss 302

JSW STEEL : (505.10)

Buy Above 510 target 1-533, target 2-560, stop loss 590
Sell Below 590 target 1-464, target 2-423, stop loss 510

Neyveli Lignite : (118.95)

Buy Above 118 target 1-127, target 2-138, stop loss 106

RELIANCE : (2152.45)

Sell Below 2150 target 1-2108, target 2-2063, stop loss 2182

REL INFRA : (1094.25)

Buy Above 1100 target 1-1138, target 2-1180, stop loss 1080
Sell Below 1080 target 1042, target 2-989, stop loss 1100

STERLITE : (546.70)

Sell Below 543 target 1-527, target 2-505, stop loss 555

TATA STEEL : (371.50)

Buy Above 372 target 1-392, target 2-412, stop loss 358
Sell Below 358 target 1-335, target 2-303, stop loss 372


NIFTY : (4318.45) Today Nifty face resistance at 4350, if cross 4350 then goes up to 4497 and 4675. Nifty find support 4153, if 4153 break then fall up to 3988 and 3810.

AXIS BANK : (764.80)

Sell Below 760 target 1-737, target 2-710, target 3-682, stop loss 780

BHEL : (2167.70)

Sell Below 2165 target 1-2099, target 2-2020, stop loss 2205

ICICI BANK : (756.15)

Buy Above 755 target 1-811, target 2-866, stop loss 744
Sell Below 744 target 1-689, target 2-624, stop loss 755

ONGC : (995.70)

Buy Above 1000 target 1-1075, target 2-1114, stop loss 980
Sell Below 980 target 1-921, target 2-876, stop loss 1000

REL CAPITAL : (911.85)

Buy Above 912 target 1-986, target 2-1060, stop loss 865
Sell Below 865 target 1-776, target 2-682, stop loss 912

Yesterday market gapdown open and huge upmove andagain downside come the markets. Also nifty 20 - 30 points volatile. This markets all are profit booking in large cap stocks for FII and Mutual fund company's and Retail invester's . Today market is also open huge up and voltile market's . The nifty will trade only 4220 to 4420 levels. If Nifty cross above 4320 level then it will go further uptrend for 4360,4380 and 4420 levels. But nifty not cross it will trade below 4280 the market will come downside upto 4220, 4180,4150 and 4120 levels.

Nifty Spot

R-4293/4340/4411.
S-4222/4175/4104.

Nifty Fut

R-4307/4354/4421.
S-4240/4193/4126.

Sensex

R-14028/14079/14098.
S-14009/13958/13939.

Yesterday buy call not active, only 10 points rally, But Sell call first and second target's achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 4320 Sl 4280 Tgt 4340,4360,4380 and 4420. Nifty Sell Below 4280 Sl 4320 tgt 4260,4250,4230 and 4220 levels

(*M J Akhtar*)

Today,

1. The PCR ratio was 1.17, 5 dma of PCR was 1.19
2. The VIX was 50.79, 5 dma of VIX was 52.06.
3. The FII were net sellers in cash for -985.53 cr, and DII were net buyers for +4.99 cr.
4. Nifty closed in red, down -1.11%
5. The OI in Futures for the month of May was, 3,63,91,200, down by -11,49,950, or -3.06%.
6. The OI in Futures for the month of June was, 29,41,500, up by 5,36,250, or +22.29%
7. The OI in Futures for the month of July was, 66,350, up by 4,400, or +7.10%
8. The OI in 4300 Call Option for May was, 16,13,700, up by 4,45,350, or +38.12%
9. The OI in 4200 Put Option for May was, 15,02,650, up by 6,68,000 or +80.03%
10. The highest OI was recorded in 3300 Put Option at 44,58,700

(*M J Akhtar*)

Buy Nifty Spot @ 4345 SL 4325 target 4375, 4400.
Sell Nifty Spot @ 4295 SL 4320 target 4275, 4250.

(raman)

BUY GMR Infrastructure Stop Loss 145 Target 182

BUY Pantaloon Retail Stop Loss 252 Target 310

BUY Neyveli Lignite Corporation Stop Loss 103 Target 150

BUY GVK Power & Infrastructure Stop Loss 34 Target 45



Asian Markets
Asian markets open mixed on Wednesday, despite poor housing data from the U.S. which led markets lower.

Nikkei Stock Average 225 up 0.43 pct at 9,330.46.
Hang Seng Index down 0.29 pct at 17,492.80.
KOSPI Index up 0.08 pct at 1,429.40.
Straits Times Index down 0.27 pct at 2,254.34.
Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23 pct at 2,670.48.

U.S. Markets
Stocks ended mixed as a banks declined and an unexpected drop in housing data led markets lower.CBOE Volatility Index dropped to 28.80, the first time the measure finished below 30 since September.Dow Jones industrial average down 29.23 points, down 0.34 percent, to 8,474.85.Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 1.58 points, down 0.17 percent, to 908.13.Nasdaq composite index gained 2.18 points,up 0.13 percent, to 1,734.54.American Express lost 1.34, or 5.1 percent, to 24.79.Goldman Sachs fell 1.4 percent, while Morgan Stanley gained 2.2 percent.Bank of America down 4.1 percent and Wells Fargo down 6 percent.Sprint Nextel gained 18 cents, or 3.4 percent after the cellphone provider said it plans to launch a smartphone.

European Markets
European shares for the fourth straight session on Tuesday as investors continue to hope that the financial sector was recovering, though gains were limited by U.S. housing data falling to a record low. Banking stocks gained as BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, HSBC,Societe Generale and UniCredit gained between 3.5 and 6.4 percent.Miners gained as metals prices gained. BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Antofagasta, Rio Tinto gained between and 3.2 and 7.5 percent.Vodafone Group was down 4 percent.FTSE 100 index ended up 0.81 percent up 35.80 points to 4,482.25,Germany's DAX closed up 2.22 percent up 107.66 points to 4,959.62,France's CAC 40 up 0.91 percent up 29.57 points to 3,274.96.

Commodities
Crude-oil futures rose on Tuesday touching a six-month high over $60 a barrel as analysts expected a drop in U.S. crude inventories.Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release last week's petroleum data on Wednesday.U.S. crude oil settled 62 cents higher at $59.65 a barrel, after earlier reaching $60.48 a barrel.But gains on the oil and equities markets were tempered by weak U.S. housing data for April.Gold for June delivery gained $5 to $927 an ounce.

(Ilango)

The correction that started from yesterday's high of 4506 looks to be ending at today's close or may extend briefly at tomorrow's open. A move past 4290 in the opening hour will have upsides and a fall below 4240 may lead to more corrections towards 4170 or lower..
There was two way movements in stocks while the index is correcting, suggesting more upsides possibility once the correction ends.

Santy

Well, nifty was bit indecisive during first half of the trading session. It opened below previous close near 4280 and touched day high at 4360, but how ever sold off in early noon and closed at 4270. So on an average today has been a Doji day, almost same opening and closing level. This indicates a tug-of-war between buyer and sellers. As we have talked yesterday, it has been quite volatile from past few days. So you could go Short (at resistances with confirmation of lower highs and lower lows price action pattern in 5/15 mins time frame) or could go Long (at supports with confirmation of higher highs and higher lows price action pattern in small time frame). For tomorrow, wait for pull back towards 4220/4250 level. If this happens, then BUY above 4250 with stop loss below 4200 for target at 4350/4370 and above. However if nifty opens above today’s close ( 4270) and trend to go higher, then it is wise to put a BUY order above 4300 with stop loss below 4270 so that you would not miss a new intraday long trend( if this happens after intraday break out).

NOTE: Could not upload better regular chart because of software problem, will update the same as soon as I get them fixed. Thanks for your patienc

(pankaj564)

look at chart of GDL. it is on verge a of break out from a long term trendline.

(SVShah)

NIFTY (4318.45)

Resistance : 4385 / 4465 / 4495 / 4560

Support : 4230 / 4155 / 4130 / 4000

SENSEX (14302.03) : SENSEX Have Supports At 13700/13100/12650, Close Below 12650 Will Lead To A Serious Downfall (Exit Long Positions Below 12650)

Resistance : 14455 / 14875 / 15445

Support : 14000 / 13785 / 13265

NIFTY FUT (4343)

Resistance : 4400 / 4565 / 4580 / 4620 / 4655

Support : 4290 / 4145 / 4120 / 3950

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up with heavy volumes indicating not only short covering plus forming of long positions too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile due to profit booking at higher levels.

On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 4290,Sl Above 4310,Tgt 4160/4140/4085/4000/3905

Sustain Above 4330,Buy with Sl Below 4310,Tgt 4470/4495/4525/4560/4660

Positional

Sell NIFTY,Sl 4375,Tgt 4250/4225/4205

BSE Relisting:
Quantum Dig. Vision(India) Ltd. on 20.05.09.
Pacific Inds. Ltd. on 25.05.09.

BUY

SBIN (1754),Sl Blw 1710,Tgt 1780/1820

WELSPUNGUJ Above 140,Sl 135

PUNJLOYD Above 170,Sl 166,Tgt 174/75/77

Sell SUZLON Below 90,Sl 95,Tgt 84/78/75/73

Positional Buy (3-5 Days)

UNITDPHOSPHORUS Above 150,Sl 140

TRIVENI Above 70,Sl 60

RPOWER Above 160/65,Sl 150

RCOM Above 315/20,Sl 300

NIFTY VIEW :- SUP 3880-3990-4141-4280 RESI 4444-4545-4664-4774-5000-5555-6000 ..RIL IND :- SUP 2222-2288-2350 RESI 2442-2500-2700-3000 .....IF ABOVE 4545 2 DAYS CLOSE WITH VOL U ALL SEE 5000 NIFTY UP TO EXPAIRE BUT VOL IS MAIN AND CLOSE IS IMP IF CLOSE THEN ONE WAY 5000, .........ESCORT , TORRENT POWER , RPOWER , RCOM , TATACOMM TATACOMM , TATACOFEE HOT BABY DONT MISS THIS STOCKS , IF NIFTY CROSS 4800 THEN ONLY RGROUP AND ADAG STOCKS WILL LEAD THIS RALLY KEEP IN MIND ....PRAJ IND , RJ ALL STOCKS ARE HOT HOT HOT ........ RNRL IS ONE STOCKS ..SOME ONE BUYING ONE WAY AND DAY BY DAY ...ONLY ONE MAN IN INDIA HE HAS A POWER TO MAKE ANY THING THIS STOCKS ....SO DONT MISS AND DONT HOLD SHORT IN THIS STOCKS BE CARE FULL.....!!!!!