NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex continues to be in the cautious zone as it has already moved up 50% from lows and closer to 61% of the last fall.

Levels to watch

Gap created at 11635 is a support zone whereas previous tops at 12300-12500 resistances.

Stocks to watchout for :

Many stock charts posted below but would trigger only on crossing of certain levels. GE Shipping and Opto did a small move but Welspun hit stops. The current moves are mainly to the index and many side counters have not given moves even after small breakouts and are hitting stops which are kept very close. Had stop hits in Mundra,welspun and rolta :(

For the same reason the view is to reduce volumes and also smaller stops as volatility will continue to be very high !!

Market Observations and Thoughts :

50% GAIN OR 70% LOSS !!!!

Surprise Surprise in the last 2 months markets have given an index move of 50% !!!. Its not very often that such a move has not been welcomed with pleasure by investors as many of them are feeling left out.

The last 50% move in Sensex in the bull market of 2007 from 14k to 21k took almost 4-6 months !!! and this was supposed to be the honeymoon period for investors. There are still not many believers in the current rally but hell does it matter to the market coz it was an opportunity equivalent to 2007 which it gave to all !! Market is supreme opinions are not.

There were two section of people one which expected 6k-7k other who expected 7k-8k ( Me too was here ) in March. Markets were the third SECTION which is always right :)

The decision came out to be much different on what the market consensus was but the point is when did you start agreeing with the decision. We turned around our head at 9k-9.5k !.

Those who dint might have had a possible 70% loss as the point of consensus was at 7k but markets are at 12k !!!

There are lot of fund managers who may be on the brink of losing their jobs for being on 20% cash still.Many funds have underperformed the current index move. Even after a 50% rise in the indices the amount of domestic cash in the system lying to be utilized is enormous with huge inflows stilll coming into the insurance industry ( i like Max here for long term ). This gives an indication every 5-10% pullback may see cash pouring with no other reason but to deploy it !!!

This doesnt imply that investors go around buying at 12k-13k!! though many of the people will wake up from the sleep now!Continue to be patient as there are and will be many opportunities in the market provided you are ready to be unbiased and simple.

In the month of MARCH had posted a few strategies and presentations on Averaging and Pyramiding. The reason for it was to create a sense of investment strategy which is profitable and can be again used once index goes into the 11k-9.5k zone.

(NOORESH)

Some stock specific charts made ... The view given in it. Take your own call this is just a technical observation. Click on charts to see maximized image.

MY CHART
Nifty :: An Doji candle pattern near target zone.. As we say in yesterday post be careful at every high.. If Primary Zigzag W-X-Y of Y running with c leg Nifty already enter in extreme target.. If Y running with 1-2-3-4-5 extreme target of 5^th wave 3700 to 3950.. Nifty near to Flag pattern target.. All daily indicator give bearish divergence.. Each and every thing against bulls.. Watch strong resistance 3700/3711/3732.. And support 3620/3585/ 3580.. As far as stay above 3620 momentum is up but buy only in deep with strictly S.L 3580.. Below 3585/3580 next strong support at 3521.. 3521 works as long stop loss.. For 6^th May Resistance for up move at 3700/3711/3732/3800.. Supports at 3620/3585/3580/ 3557/3521/3410..


(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on a flat note and traded in narrow range .On daily chart nifty had form doji which suggest indecisiveness at current levels .Market are trading over bought zone correction cannot be ruled out .If nifty trade above 3672 it can test 3703-3735zone and trading below 3644 it will test 3608-3572 zones

(Azad)

SENSEX : (12131.08) Today Sensex face resistance at 12226, if cross 12226 then goes up to 12320 and 12413. Sensex find support at 12011, if 12011 break then fall up to 11891 and 11797.

NIFTY : (3661.90) Today Nifty face resistance at 3691, if cross 3691 then goes up to 3720 and 3748. Nifty find support at 3625, if 3625 break then fall up to 3589 and 3560.

Nifty May Futures (As on 5th May 2009) closed at 3665.20 (Rs 3.30 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 12187.45 crores, adds 259850 (0.69%) in a open interest pushing the open interest to 37970050 shares.

Yesterday market heavy volatile it. The Nifty fut will cross 3660 level . They will close above 3650 levels. Today also market volatile and bullish market. The nifty fut already touch 3690 level andalso today they will cross 3720 level. This level cross market further uptrand contined upto 3780 to 3820 levels. But the nifty fut when break 3620 level the market will come downside upto 3520 level . The reason for 3620 is important Support for Both nifty fut and Nifty spot. Yesterday Nifty Spot break this level but bounce back those level. Nifty fut not break this level.

Nifty Spot

R-3654/3690/3717.
S-3627/3591/3564.

Nifty Fut

R-3659/3694/3730.
S-3623/3588/3552.

Sensex

R-12105/12224/12317.
S-12012/11893/11800.

Yesterday Our nifty fut buy call first tgt achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 3660 Sl 3620 tgt 3690,3720,3740,3780 and 3820 (last day same call) .Nifty Sell below 3640 Sl 3680 Tgt 3620,3590,3575 and 3550.

(*M J Akhtar*)

(Ilango)

Nifty moving up with intra corrections with support base moving up to 3585 - 3625 with profit booking coming at 3690 - 3720.
Daily -ve div are in place but price has not confirmed it.
Surprisingly, I do not see any divergences in hourly..!!!





"Deepak Bharadwaj" sent me the following Hourly chart with 60 hr ema(10 DMA) and has captured the bulk of the upmove. An example of patience & larger time frame rewards.

SantyAs discussed in the previous post, Nifty found support near 3620 area and hence BUY order from 3625 to target at 3670 met for intraday trade. Today Nifty managed to make a new high touching near 3690, however could not hold to upside because of profit taking and lack of direction. Tomorrow market could see the same kind of situation as of today. Near support is seen at 3623/3605 and resistance at 3690. Tomorrow if market opens near today’s close and comes back to 3620/25 zone, then watch the price action and BUY at 3630 ( with confirmation price action and volume) with stop loss at 3600 for target at 3680/3700.

(SVShah)

NIFTY (3661.9) : Markets To Correct & Buying To Emerge From The Range Of 3590/3620

Resistance : 3690 / 3720 / 3745 / 3775

Support : 3655 / 3625 / 3590 / 3545

SENSEX (12131.08) : Start Booking Profits,Around Sensex Of 12200/500 & Remain Light (Stay On Cash) : SENSEX Double Top At 12185

Resistance : 12225 / 12320 / 12565 / 12860

Support : 12100 / 12000 / 11890

NIFTY FUT (3665.2) : Expect NIFTY To Be In Range Of 3620-3720

Resistance : 3700 / 3735 / 3760 / 3820

Support : 3660 / 3625 / 3590 / 3575

BANK NIFTY (5575.8)

Resistance : 5645 / 5710

Support : 5550 / 5485 / 5400

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI flat with 20% increasing volumes indicating unwinding of Longs plus forming of shorts too.

We Expect Nifty Fut to trade Volatile, possibility of profit booking at higher levels.

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3660,Sl Below 3640,Tgt 3675-3590-3715-3745-3760,

Sustain Below 3635,Sell with Sl Above 3655,Tgt 3620-3590-3575-3555-3540.

Positional High Risk NIFTY Lovers : Buy NIFTY 3590/3620,Sl 3550,Tgt 3365/3395/3720/3750+

BUY

ADLABS Above 245,Sl 240,Tgt 250/55/60++

BALRAMCHINI Above 78

UNIONBANK Above 175

PUNJLOYD,Sl 124,Tgt 140/45/50+

ROLTA Above 85,Sl 80,Tgt 90/95/100++

LNT ABOVE 985,Sl 965,Tgt 1000/20/40/60++

TATAMOTORS Above 270,Sl 260,Tgt 280/90/300+

INFOSYS Around 1500/10

TCS Around 625

SELL

SBIN (1345),Sl Above 1360,Tgt 1330/20/10

IOB Below 65,Sl 67,Tgt 62/60/59

ABB Below 465,Sl 470,Tgt 455/45/40+

GRASIM Below 1800,Sl 1820,Tgt 1780/70/60/50

BOMBAYDYIENG Below 195,Sl 205,Tgt 190/85/80

GAIL Below 260,Sl 265,Tgt 255/50/45/40+

HEROHONDA Below 1200,Sl 1215,Tgt 1185/70/50++

Stock Rumours

ICICI to list ICICI PRU soon,Hence Positional Tgt 600/640/680/700++++

LARSEN Looks Bullish ,Tgt 1050/70+

REALTY Still Looks Bullish

ANULABS , MOSERBAER , ZYLOG Start Its Rally Again (10/15% Appreciation From CMP)

FUTURES

Buy SCI 89/91,Sl 86,Tgt 93.2/94.1/95/96.9/97.8/98.7+ (Lot Size : 4800)

Sell ABB 465/75,Sl 480,Tgt 459/55/52/56/42/37+ (Lot Size : 500)