Indian Elections 2009 Exits Poll Vs Stock Brokers Exits poll
Top Stock Brokers of India Exits poll says that Sensex will remain on following points after Indian Elections 2009.
Stock Brokers Exits poll
10,000 to 12,000 - 20%
11,000 to 12,000 - 50%
12,000 to 13,000 - 10%
13,000 to 14,000 - 20%
Indian Elections 2009 Exits Poll
The Times of India:
UPA - 201, NDA - 195, Third Front - 82
Hindustan Samachar:
UPA - 170-180, NDA - 210-225
Star News:
UPA - 202, NDA - 198, Third Front - 97
CNN-IBN CNBC-TV18:
UPA - 185-205, NDA - 165-185, Third Front - 110-130
Times Now:
UPA - 199, NDA - 183, Third Front - 120
Live India:
Congress - 181, BJP - 140, Left - 25
INDIA TV:
UPA - 199, NDA - 192, Third Front - 108
NewsX:
UPA - 199, NDA - 191, Third Front - 104
Top Stock Brokers of India Exits poll says that Sensex will remain on following points after Indian Elections 2009.
Stock Brokers Exits poll
10,000 to 12,000 - 20%
11,000 to 12,000 - 50%
12,000 to 13,000 - 10%
13,000 to 14,000 - 20%
Indian Elections 2009 Exits Poll
The Times of India:
UPA - 201, NDA - 195, Third Front - 82
Hindustan Samachar:
UPA - 170-180, NDA - 210-225
Star News:
UPA - 202, NDA - 198, Third Front - 97
CNN-IBN CNBC-TV18:
UPA - 185-205, NDA - 165-185, Third Front - 110-130
Times Now:
UPA - 199, NDA - 183, Third Front - 120
Live India:
Congress - 181, BJP - 140, Left - 25
INDIA TV:
UPA - 199, NDA - 192, Third Front - 108
NewsX:
UPA - 199, NDA - 191, Third Front - 104
Sensex Technical view :
10 day SMA of Trin Failed to close above 1 last time. And this time
Once again 10 day SMA of trin shows falling levels.... Which indicate a
bullish momentum could generate. As Trin is showing Positive Signal....
So Iam supposed to turn Positive for this time.... My Stop loss lies
below 3485-3495(Weekly 5 EMA) on closing basis...... And trend will
turn positive if nifty closes above 3616(Daily 5 EMA) on Closing
basis.... As currently the daily trend is negative with EOD resistance
The Indian market opened with huge down gap due to weak global cues and close with negative zone .For coming session we can see “Make OR Break “ day if nifty trade below 3530 levels it can test 3350 zone .On the upper side trading below 3684 zone it can test 3730-3750 zones
Nifty Spot
R-3588/3638/3682.
S-3544/3494/3450.
Nifty Fut
R-3598/3645/3683.
S-3560/3513/3475.
Sensex
R-11835/11974/12075.
S-11734/11595/11494.
Yesterday Buy call not active, but Sell call active our three target achived. Today Nifty Buy Abv 3620 Sl 3580 Tgt 3640,3660,3680 and 3720 levels. Nifty Sell Below 3580 Sl 3620 Tgt 3560,3540 and 3520 levels.
at 3616
Sensex may just seem to have gone below the momentum trendline but the range of 11600-12300 remains intact. 2-3 sessions below either range or volume based convincing move on either side will decide the next trend of the market. Monday could be the decider. Although lot of lot of divergences seen the probability of a gap-up is higher coz the short term trend is still positive.
Continue to stay on the lighter side unless you have a risk apetite to digest the volatility and big swings ahead.
Stocks to watchout for :
GMR infra reverses from 107 odd opening, GNFC crosses 75 giving a positive breakout,Fortis maintain hold. Mundra Port shoots up , MTNL small move, Central Bank down.
DCB earlier recommended at 16-18 levels did its move to 28 and now sideways in a band of 23-26. Sustaining aove 26.5 in short term may give a quick 15-20% move up to 30 levels. Traders can keep a watch next week. Also Bank of Maharashtra looks good for momentum
Speculative build-up seen in GNFC,GMDC,GSPL as possible election bets.
Aban Lloyd and Century Textiles could be performers for the day but risky bets so take care.
Investors can have a look on the following stocks as medium to long term bets in a pyramiding manner
Blue Star
IFGL Refractories
Dishman Pharma
GDL
10 day SMA of Trin Failed to close above 1 last time. And this time
Once again 10 day SMA of trin shows falling levels.... Which indicate a
bullish momentum could generate. As Trin is showing Positive Signal....
So Iam supposed to turn Positive for this time.... My Stop loss lies
below 3485-3495(Weekly 5 EMA) on closing basis...... And trend will
turn positive if nifty closes above 3616(Daily 5 EMA) on Closing
basis.... As currently the daily trend is negative with EOD resistance
Nifty :: Exactly take support above last pivotal low as we say in yesterday post and made triple bottom.. Nifty again made a Flag pattern in chart. We never seen such kind of repeated pattern in any chart.. (Undeceive Election result effect..!!).. Now watch breakout level 3717 and breakdown level 3525 for further major up or down swing.. Till then our strategy near breakdown level buy on deep (S.L 3525) Sell at high OR near break out level sell at high (S.L 3717) buy on deep.. Use strictly S.L in treading..
(Best strategy is to avoid market for time being )
The Indian market opened with huge down gap due to weak global cues and close with negative zone .For coming session we can see “Make OR Break “ day if nifty trade below 3530 levels it can test 3350 zone .On the upper side trading below 3684 zone it can test 3730-3750 zones Yesterday market open downside moreover 100 points. Then market recovery slower upto 3630 level come. Then again market will down upto 3580 level. Andalso market will again recover closing 3608 levels. Yesterday market voltaile 10 to 30 points winding . Today also market volatile and winding 20 to 30 points. If Nifty trade abv 3620 level market will go upside upto 3680 to 3720 levels. Then Nifty trade below 3580 level the market will come downside upto 3520 levels. Every trader strictly use Sl .
Nifty Spot
R-3588/3638/3682.
S-3544/3494/3450.
Nifty Fut
R-3598/3645/3683.
S-3560/3513/3475.
Sensex
R-11835/11974/12075.
S-11734/11595/11494.
Yesterday Buy call not active, but Sell call active our three target achived. Today Nifty Buy Abv 3620 Sl 3580 Tgt 3640,3660,3680 and 3720 levels. Nifty Sell Below 3580 Sl 3620 Tgt 3560,3540 and 3520 levels.
Long Side
- BUY NIFTY SPOT AT 3608, STOP LOSS = 3593, TARGET = 3622, 3632, 3651, 3665, 3677, 3687.
- BUY BANKNIFTY SPOT AT 5520, STOP LOSS = 5497, TARGET = 5552, 5571, 5609, 5636, 5660, 5680.
- BUY RELIANCE SPOT AT 1916, STOP LOSS = 1908, TARGET = 1923, 1928, 1938, 1945, 1951, 1956.
- BUY SBI SPOT AT 1275, STOP LOSS = 1266, TARGET = 1284, 1290, 1302, 1310, 1317, 1323.
- BUY EDUCOMP SPOT AT 2401, STOP LOSS = 2388, TARGET = 2417, 2427, 2448, 2462, 2475, 2485.
- SELL NIFTY SPOT AT 3579, STOP LOSS = 3593, TARGET = 3565, 3555,3536, 3522,
- SELL BANKNIFTY SPOT AT 5470, STOP LOSS = 5492, TARGET = 5438, 5419,5381, 5354,
- SELL RELIANCE SPOT AT 1902, STOP LOSS = 1909, TARGET = 1895, 1890,1880, 1873,
- SELL SBI SPOT AT 1260, STOP LOSS = 1268, TARGET = 1250, 1245,1233, 1225,
- SELL EDUCOMP SPOT AT 2373, STOP LOSS = 2385, TARGET = 2357, 2347,2326, 2312
BUY Aban Offshore Stop Loss 490 Target 580
BUY Yes Bank Stop Loss 90 Target 110
BUY Nagarjuna Construction Co. Stop Loss 78 Target 106
BUY Mcleod Russel India Stop Loss 78 Target 102
Today as expected nifty did open with a big gap down near 3545 and then traded in a range from 3560 to 3620 whole day long closing just below pivot level at 3595-3610. As long as nifty stays above 3540 or near 3600, we can assume it to be in a uptrend and should go long on dips. Tomorrow market could go higher and test 3675/85 level again. So watch the opening level with respect to today’s close. If Nifty opens near or slightly above today’s close (3595), then look for uptrend pattern in small time frame near 3590/3615 zone. If it goes higher with higher highs and higher lows price action( in small time frame, probably 5/15 minutes chart) then BUY above 3620 with stop loss below 3580 for target at 3655/85. If on the flip side, nifty goes lower after testing 3635/40, then better try not to SELL, rather wait for pullback for better long entry.
मित्रो हमने निचे आती हुई ट्रेंड लाइन को क्रॉस कर लिया है.इसके साथ तीन चार्ट भेजे है.आगेकी चाल कैसी हो सकती है.bow tie diametric को विवेक पाटिल जी काफी समयसे दिखा रहें है.मैंने उसमे उल्टा head and shoulder पैटर्न बनाया है .हम उसकी नेक्क लाइन पर है.इसके हिसाबसे आनेवाले दिनोमे हम थोडा correction देख सकते है जिसमे हम खरीदी कर सकते है.मेरे प्रिय मित्र स्पंदन ने अपनी प्रतिक्रिया भेजी है वोह चार्ट भी सामिल है
BUY Yes Bank Stop Loss 90 Target 110
BUY Nagarjuna Construction Co. Stop Loss 78 Target 106
BUY Mcleod Russel India Stop Loss 78 Target 102
Today as expected nifty did open with a big gap down near 3545 and then traded in a range from 3560 to 3620 whole day long closing just below pivot level at 3595-3610. As long as nifty stays above 3540 or near 3600, we can assume it to be in a uptrend and should go long on dips. Tomorrow market could go higher and test 3675/85 level again. So watch the opening level with respect to today’s close. If Nifty opens near or slightly above today’s close (3595), then look for uptrend pattern in small time frame near 3590/3615 zone. If it goes higher with higher highs and higher lows price action( in small time frame, probably 5/15 minutes chart) then BUY above 3620 with stop loss below 3580 for target at 3655/85. If on the flip side, nifty goes lower after testing 3635/40, then better try not to SELL, rather wait for pullback for better long entry.
मित्रो हमने निचे आती हुई ट्रेंड लाइन को क्रॉस कर लिया है.इसके साथ तीन चार्ट भेजे है.आगेकी चाल कैसी हो सकती है.bow tie diametric को विवेक पाटिल जी काफी समयसे दिखा रहें है.मैंने उसमे उल्टा head and shoulder पैटर्न बनाया है .हम उसकी नेक्क लाइन पर है.इसके हिसाबसे आनेवाले दिनोमे हम थोडा correction देख सकते है जिसमे हम खरीदी कर सकते है.मेरे प्रिय मित्र स्पंदन ने अपनी प्रतिक्रिया भेजी है वोह चार्ट भी सामिल है
पंकज शाह
FRIENDS
after a very very long time we saw a huge rally surprising mkt players whose mind set was expecting bearishness (incl me).lvl of 6500 is being discussed by all tom harry and dick.seems shorters are trapped today and short covering wth losses must be there.
first positives: today we have crossed 100dma and closed above it. so far after correcting from 21206 all the times we have reached around 100 dma we have corrected by 25-30 percent from there.let us c this time what happens. will we sustain above 100 dma?
today first time trend line connecting 7697 and 8631 which was giving strong resisatnce so far is crossed over and we have clsoed baove that t- line.
will we sustain above that t line? look at attached chart. today we have tested a line in rsi. that line has given strong resistance since top of 21206. yesterday i had mentioned abt it indicating that since it was not tested some bullishness is left out.let us c this time. will we sustain at this lvls. i had mentioned abt macd also still it is not crossed.
we have crossed downward channel after a long time and we have moved up by more than 80% of fall from 9725 to 8047, so we have think in different manner. now we shd look at retracement lvls of fall from 10470 to 8047. so far we have retraced by 58% of fall very close to 61.8% lvl at 9544.let us c.we will see abt waves after we complete this move.
we have filled gap at 9213-9279 which was unfilled since long.
what next?
for intra day charts we have to look at trend line connecting 10945 and 10470 will give resisatnce around 9700. and on closing basis chart we shd look at rectangle chart i had sent earlier.lvl wise technically any close above 10470 will reverse the trend from bearish to bullish.
i had mentioned abt gann turning day. today was gann turning day.last it was on 9/02/09 and 10/02/09.we saw intermediate high of 9725 in those days. normally these days levels work for apprx 40 dys.today's low of 9040 shd observed for any weakness or bearishness.any gap opening will invite correction bcz so far we had seen 3 gap openings so next gap opening on higher side will be inviting good correction.
so better to be on sideline for few days and let market decide where it wants to move.fight of bulls n bears will be at peak in coming 2/3 days since F n O expiry is on thursday.
i have sent mail to my clients on 20/4/2009. i put it on my blog today.
20/04/2009
Friends, as expected we have reached and got strong resistance in zone 11200-11400 and had seen some correction as mentioned.more over one gap was unfilled at 11257/11410 , that also gave resistance alongwith 200dma and sloping downward trend line. now since we have violated 10945 which gave support on friday so next support comes at 10470 prev top as well support on upward trend line seen so far.on violation of 10470 we can go near very strong support area near 10127.we have left big unfilled gap at 9921-10107 also.50% of rise from 8867-11367 comes at 10117. our stretegy shd be to buy when we see reversal from supports.buying shd be stock specific looking at reversal in individual scrips. i have attched two charts which is showing very good resemblence in moves when we made bottom at 2594 in 2001 and current bottom made at 8047. if we follow the same path we can move towards 12500 after some correction in coming days.more over values of sensex in 2000-2001 are resembeling with current values of nifty. Pankaj Shah
NIFTY (3593.45)
Test and retest 35-37-35-37...
SENSEX : (11872.91) Today Sensex face resistance at 12031, if cross 12031 then goes up to 12189 and 12347. Sensex find support at 11704, if break 11704 then panic selling started and Sensex crash up to 11536 and 11378.
NIFTY : (3593.45) Today Nifty face resistance at 3641, if cross 3641 then goes up to 3688 and 3735. Nifty find support at 3541, if 3541 break then Nifty crash up to 3489 and 3442.
NIFTY MAY FUTURES (As on 14th May 2009) closed at 3603.65 (Rs 10.20 Premium) with a turn over of Rs 12448.24 crores, Adds 385500 shares (1.05%) in open interest pushing the open interest to 37030300 shares.
FRIENDS after a very very long time we saw a huge rally surprising mkt players whose mind set was expecting bearishness (incl me).lvl of 6500 is being discussed by all tom harry and dick.seems shorters are trapped today and short covering wth losses must be there.
first positives: today we have crossed 100dma and closed above it. so far after correcting from 21206 all the times we have reached around 100 dma we have corrected by 25-30 percent from there.let us c this time what happens. will we sustain above 100 dma?
today first time trend line connecting 7697 and 8631 which was giving strong resisatnce so far is crossed over and we have clsoed baove that t- line.
will we sustain above that t line? look at attached chart. today we have tested a line in rsi. that line has given strong resistance since top of 21206. yesterday i had mentioned abt it indicating that since it was not tested some bullishness is left out.let us c this time. will we sustain at this lvls. i had mentioned abt macd also still it is not crossed.
we have crossed downward channel after a long time and we have moved up by more than 80% of fall from 9725 to 8047, so we have think in different manner. now we shd look at retracement lvls of fall from 10470 to 8047. so far we have retraced by 58% of fall very close to 61.8% lvl at 9544.let us c.we will see abt waves after we complete this move.
we have filled gap at 9213-9279 which was unfilled since long.
what next?
for intra day charts we have to look at trend line connecting 10945 and 10470 will give resisatnce around 9700. and on closing basis chart we shd look at rectangle chart i had sent earlier.lvl wise technically any close above 10470 will reverse the trend from bearish to bullish.
i had mentioned abt gann turning day. today was gann turning day.last it was on 9/02/09 and 10/02/09.we saw intermediate high of 9725 in those days. normally these days levels work for apprx 40 dys.today's low of 9040 shd observed for any weakness or bearishness.any gap opening will invite correction bcz so far we had seen 3 gap openings so next gap opening on higher side will be inviting good correction.
so better to be on sideline for few days and let market decide where it wants to move.fight of bulls n bears will be at peak in coming 2/3 days since F n O expiry is on thursday.
i have sent mail to my clients on 20/4/2009. i put it on my blog today.20/04/2009
Friends, as expected we have reached and got strong resistance in zone 11200-11400 and had seen some correction as mentioned.more over one gap was unfilled at 11257/11410 , that also gave resistance alongwith 200dma and sloping downward trend line. now since we have violated 10945 which gave support on friday so next support comes at 10470 prev top as well support on upward trend line seen so far.on violation of 10470 we can go near very strong support area near 10127.we have left big unfilled gap at 9921-10107 also.50% of rise from 8867-11367 comes at 10117. our stretegy shd be to buy when we see reversal from supports.buying shd be stock specific looking at reversal in individual scrips. i have attched two charts which is showing very good resemblence in moves when we made bottom at 2594 in 2001 and current bottom made at 8047. if we follow the same path we can move towards 12500 after some correction in coming days.more over values of sensex in 2000-2001 are resembeling with current values of nifty. Pankaj Shah
NIFTY (3593.45)
Resistance : 3640 / 3685 / 3710
Support : 3590 / 3565 / 3545/ 3495
SENSEX
Resistance : 11975 / 12075 / 12250
Support : 11735 / 11595 / 11450
NIFTY FUT (3604)
Resistance : 3645 / 3680 / 3725
Support : 3560 / 3535 / 3515 / 3475
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 1.05% with 20% decreasing volumes indicating forming of shorts positions for STBT.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
On Friday,Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 3595,Sl Below 3570,Tgt 3615/35/55/80/95,
Sustain Below 3575,Sell with Sl Above 3590,Tgt 3560/45/25/05/3475
BUY
APIL Above 350/55
SESAGOA Above 140,Sl 136,Tgt 143/45/47
UNITDPHOSPHORUS Above 126,Sl 121,Tgt 131/34/36
PATELENG Above 215,Sl 210,Tgt 220/25
ACC Abv 620,Sl 615,Tgt 625/30/35
NAGARCONST Above 85,Sl 82,Tgt 88/91/95
SBIN (1267),Sl Blw 1250,Tgt 1290/95/1310
BOB Above 340,Sl 335,Tgt 345/55/65+
INDIACEM Above 110,Sl 107,Tgt 113/16/20+
TCS Above 620,Sl 610,Tgt 630/40/50/60
SELL
ZEETELE Below 140,Sl 145,Tgt 135/30/20
JETAIRWAYS Below 200,Sl 210,Tgt 190/85/80
GAIL Below 265,Sl 270,Tgt 260/55/50/45
Test and retest 35-37-35-37...
SENSEX : (11872.91) Today Sensex face resistance at 12031, if cross 12031 then goes up to 12189 and 12347. Sensex find support at 11704, if break 11704 then panic selling started and Sensex crash up to 11536 and 11378.
NIFTY : (3593.45) Today Nifty face resistance at 3641, if cross 3641 then goes up to 3688 and 3735. Nifty find support at 3541, if 3541 break then Nifty crash up to 3489 and 3442.
NIFTY MAY FUTURES (As on 14th May 2009) closed at 3603.65 (Rs 10.20 Premium) with a turn over of Rs 12448.24 crores, Adds 385500 shares (1.05%) in open interest pushing the open interest to 37030300 shares.
at 3616
Have a close look on
USD Index - As it dips below 200 day and 200 Week Moving Average this week
Shangai Index - As it trades just above 200 Week Moving Average this week
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